AHC: Make South America... Less South American

[corditeman]

Seriously...

... Would unrestricted (but non-abortional) birth control have any effect on South America's economic future?

And, yes, Argentina has had statesmen, so I just wrote in another great man. Was I wrong to do so?

 

[Petete123123]

The problem is disunity. That's it.

I mean, for it's first 50 years, Argentina fought to create a constitution. Why, because of disunity regarding opinions and interests.

This is my idea of a way to at least have a better Southern Cone.

San Martin somehow decides to go to Argentina by 1809. In 1810, the Junta is formed in Buenos Aires. The Junta invites representants from every Intendencia and Gobernacion and also from Chile. As they all feel that a union is safer from them(lets them all think that if Spain comes back, things gonna be hard), they form the United Provinces of South America, with this big Junta declaring independence in 1810(many people wanted to do so). Here, there will be conflict between Liberals and Conservatives, but lets have the Liberals won. They promise to get support from Europe and so many soft conservatives join them. Mariano Moreno is selected as President of the Junta Grande. His first action is to call a Congress to form a constitution. Every province sends one delegate. In 1811 its aprooved and the first major battles start in Alto Peru and Chile. The Montevideo garrison is defeated with help from every province. This means Montevideo is able to compete with Buenos Aires for commerce in a future. San Martin, Güemes and O'Higgins manage to win many battles and they start entering into Peru. At the same time, Bolivar is doing better in Gran Colombia(Spain can't react). By 1814 they have liberated all South America. After that, Spain doesn't have a base like Lima or Colombia to reconquer their colonies. So they are forced by UK to recognize the Independence of Gran Colombia, Peru and the United Provinces. The United provinces now accomplished its duty. Some want to separate but cooperation united with Moreno policies which gave many rights copied from the US, like voting for all criollo adult males(not many slaves in this part of the colonies, but Natives weren't taken in account), freeing the slaves, and many land distribution. The creation of a real army by San Martin was another factor along his figure and his determination to make this rights the rule, to keep all united. It continues to develop as an agricultural country. Cattle becomes more important for the country. Iron mining in Bolivia is very important for the first industries in Chile and the Andes. Many Natives are made to work in really though conditions and many also die or decide to emigrate to Bolivia. Another important policy was immigration. Taking the chance with Post-Napoleon immigration, the country receives many French and Spanish. With stability, its population grow well. Brazil is not a threat for the whole union(Argentina could beat them alone), and when they attempt to conquer Uruguay, it's not a close-run and Argentina manages to take Rio Grande do Sul as a new province. It's gaucho population much more common to Argentineans than to other Brazilians make it easy for them to adopt. After this, there is a military campaign which manages to take control over most of Patagonia. Malvinas stay Argentinean.
Up to WWI, progress continues, at least 3 or 4 times as many immigrants Argentina got in OTL come to the Union, with the population reaching at least 30 millions by 1914(thanks to a more rural population having more kids). After WWI, they start industrializing, they receive more immigrants, they participate in WWII, they become important, they continue doing good, etc, etc, etc.
Now its a 100 million people first world country country, like Canada with steroids.

 

[Juan Valdez]

Interesting.

Someone should now make a Colombian wank. Or was it done already?

mmmhhh

I'm curious, what would it take to keep a Grand Colombia that stayed together?

 

[archaeogeek]

snip interesting idea

In this scenario, Peru is both Upper and Lower Peru, or just OTL Lower Peru? And every time I play Victoria as Colombia is a Colombia-wank

Also IMO, Bolivar stepping down in 1821 would have gone a long way (that's about when he started acting above the constitution and also when he launched his Peruvian expedition).

 

[juanml82]

The problem is disunity. That's it.

I mean, for it's first 50 years, Argentina fought to create a constitution. Why, because of disunity regarding opinions and interests.

This is my idea of a way to at least have a better Southern Cone.

San Martin somehow decides to go to Argentina by 1809. In 1810, the Junta is formed in Buenos Aires. The Junta invites representants from every Intendencia and Gobernacion and also from Chile. As they all feel that a union is safer from them(lets them all think that if Spain comes back, things gonna be hard), they form the United Provinces of South America, with this big Junta declaring independence in 1810(many people wanted to do so). Here, there will be conflict between Liberals and Conservatives, but lets have the Liberals won. They promise to get support from Europe and so many soft conservatives join them. Mariano Moreno is selected as President of the Junta Grande. His first action is to call a Congress to form a constitution. Every province sends one delegate. In 1811 its aprooved and the first major battles start in Alto Peru and Chile. The Montevideo garrison is defeated with help from every province. This means Montevideo is able to compete with Buenos Aires for commerce in a future. San Martin, Güemes and O'Higgins manage to win many battles and they start entering into Peru. At the same time, Bolivar is doing better in Gran Colombia(Spain can't react). By 1814 they have liberated all South America. After that, Spain doesn't have a base like Lima or Colombia to reconquer their colonies. So they are forced by UK to recognize the Independence of Gran Colombia, Peru and the United Provinces. The United provinces now accomplished its duty. Some want to separate but cooperation united with Moreno policies which gave many rights copied from the US, like voting for all criollo adult males(not many slaves in this part of the colonies, but Natives weren't taken in account), freeing the slaves, and many land distribution. The creation of a real army by San Martin was another factor along his figure and his determination to make this rights the rule, to keep all united. It continues to develop as an agricultural country. Cattle becomes more important for the country. Iron mining in Bolivia is very important for the first industries in Chile and the Andes. Many Natives are made to work in really though conditions and many also die or decide to emigrate to Bolivia. Another important policy was immigration. Taking the chance with Post-Napoleon immigration, the country receives many French and Spanish. With stability, its population grow well. Brazil is not a threat for the whole union(Argentina could beat them alone), and when they attempt to conquer Uruguay, it's not a close-run and Argentina manages to take Rio Grande do Sul as a new province. It's gaucho population much more common to Argentineans than to other Brazilians make it easy for them to adopt. After this, there is a military campaign which manages to take control over most of Patagonia. Malvinas stay Argentinean.
Up to WWI, progress continues, at least 3 or 4 times as many immigrants Argentina got in OTL come to the Union, with the population reaching at least 30 millions by 1914(thanks to a more rural population having more kids). After WWI, they start industrializing, they receive more immigrants, they participate in WWII, they become important, they continue doing good, etc, etc, etc.
Now its a 100 million people first world country country, like Canada with steroids.

I dunno. Moreno wanted to avoid a large Junta, although we could think he agrees to that as a compromise. San Martin forming a good officer cadre will have a positive impact for the revolutionaries, though. It may not be enough to successfully invade (Upper) Peru. No idea on how Bolivar would do better. And, in any case, finishing the war in 4 years is simply too much, there is a huge span of territory to cover with hardly any infrastructure, even by early 19th century standards. Then you have the different and conflicting interests between the different businessmen around the southern cone. A disciplined, strong, standing army responding the central government might help avoiding the civil war. However, there is still the issue of whether how long would a central government last and if the economy allows for a large standing army. The southern Brazilians, though, wouldn't, under any circumstance willingly join Argentina.

 

[Metro]

So what if Paraguay had more luck then? El Supremo did much to get rid of these Spanish colonial remnants. Granted, he was brutal as all hell and probably in the most totalitarian dictator I've heard of in the sense that he literally controlled just about every single thing in the country, but he did make it more modernish, and did much for equalization.

He was very popular with the everyday people. High Class were not fond of him. Paraguay was the first Independent nation in South America. They did not really have to fight for there Independence the way the most of the other nations on the continent minus Brazil had too. They were supposedly the first Socialist nation in the Americas. They also supposedly were well off until the War of theTriple Alliance. Supposedly, they had public schools and iron works industry.
Some say even before the Great war of the Triple Alliance that because of all this that Argentina and Brazil had out it for them.

Bolivar Gran Colombia fell apart because of regional differences including politics and not because of Bolivar. Side note. The Republic of Santo Domingo which would become later the Dominican Republic wanted to join Gran Colombia but they were later invaded by there Western Neighbor.

After a dozen years of discontent and failed independence plots by various groups, Santo Domingo's former Lieutenant-Governor (top administrator), José Núñez de Cáceres, declared the colony's independence, on November 30, 1821. He requested the new state's admission to Simón Bolívar's republic of Gran Colombia, but Haitian forces, led by Jean-Pierre Boyer, invaded just nine weeks later, in February 1822.

 

[Petete123123]

I dunno. Moreno wanted to avoid a large Junta, although we could think he agrees to that as a compromise. San Martin forming a good officer cadre will have a positive impact for the revolutionaries, though. It may not be enough to successfully invade (Upper) Peru. No idea on how Bolivar would do better. And, in any case, finishing the war in 4 years is simply too much, there is a huge span of territory to cover with hardly any infrastructure, even by early 19th century standards. Then you have the different and conflicting interests between the different businessmen around the southern cone. A disciplined, strong, standing army responding the central government might help avoiding the civil war. However, there is still the issue of whether how long would a central government last and if the economy allows for a large standing army. The southern Brazilians, though, wouldn't, under any circumstance willingly join Argentina.

I took two things in account. One was that before 1815, Spain can't send troops. If Revolutionaries manage to control all the ports and important coastal cities before that, then Spain will have a difficult time reconquering the territories. What I thought was that the united forces of all this zone, plus any insurgent fighting with them will be able to beat any Spanish force pre-Napoleon defeat. For this it's really neccessary that all the countries contribute with as much as they can. And if UK makes the independence of the colonies to be included in the Treaty of Vienna, Spain will have to live with it.
After that, War Heroes like San Martin, Güemes, O'Higgins, and any other founding father remaining in the country and acting to preserve the union will do the trick of making the whole country remain united.
And for South Brazilians, nobody said they would be joining willingly
Immigration and the army will do the job of making them reconsider their position

 

[archaeogeek]

He was very popular with the everyday people. High Class were not fond of him. Paraguay was the first Independent nation in South America. They did not really have to fight for there Independence the way the most of the other nations on the continent minus Brazil had too. They were supposedly the first Socialist nation in the Americas. They also supposedly were well off until the War of theTriple Alliance. Supposedly, they had public schools and iron works industry.
Some say even before the Great war of the Triple Alliance that because of all this that Argentina and Brazil had out it for them.

Bolivar Gran Colombia fell apart because of regional differences including politics and not because of Bolivar. Side note. The Republic of Santo Domingo which would become later the Dominican Republic wanted to join Gran Colombia but they were later invaded by there Western Neighbor.

The regional differences were exacerbated by an absentee president paying fast and loose with the constitution (he wanted it amended in 1821 already when it didn't allow amendments until 1832, i.e. a ten years cooldown period after its adoption by the legislature) though, the first major revolt happened while Bolivar was off to Alto Peru. Banning Santander also didn't help.

 

[juanml82]

I took two things in account. One was that before 1815, Spain can't send troops. If Revolutionaries manage to control all the ports and important coastal cities before that, then Spain will have a difficult time reconquering the territories.

Yes. Yet, they've lost their ports in South America, save Chiloe, by 1821 and they've resisted until 1824. And that, in a guerrilla territory that probably didn't have anything to envy from Vietnam 150 years later. We Argentineans don't usually know that Güemes was actually the last one from an assortment of guerrilla leaders, like the Marquis of Yavi, Lanza, the Padillas and probably some others I don't remember know.

For this it's really neccessary that all the countries contribute with as much as they can.

Sure. I don't know, though, how much can they contribute in quantity. Quality is another matter, and experienced officers like San Martin would contribute greatly to it.

And if UK makes the independence of the colonies to be included in the Treaty of Vienna, Spain will have to live with it.

That for sure.

After that, War Heroes like San Martin, Güemes, O'Higgins, and any other founding father remaining in the country and acting to preserve the union will do the trick of making the whole country remain united.

No. Neither Bolivar nor O'Higgins did well in the post war years. Güemes was despised by rich elites. About San Martin, well, he much had to leave the country in secret in OTL, despite his military victories.

 

[archaeogeek]

Yes. Yet, they've lost their ports in South America, save Chiloe, by 1821 and they've resisted until 1824. And that, in a guerrilla territory that probably didn't have anything to envy from Vietnam 150 years later. We Argentineans don't usually know that Güemes was actually the last one from an assortment of guerrilla leaders, like the Marquis of Yavi, Lanza, the Padillas and probably some others I don't remember know.
Sure. I don't know, though, how much can they contribute in quantity. Quality is another matter, and experienced officers like San Martin would contribute greatly to it.
That for sure.
No. Neither Bolivar nor O'Higgins did well in the post war years. Güemes was despised by rich elites. About San Martin, well, he much had to leave the country in secret in OTL, despite his military victories.

Quantity is probably the main advantage spanish america has over the US for a fight for independence: the US was barely more than 3 million people out of a total population of more or less 22 million for the United Kingdom and its colonies; Spain has about 26 million people with its colonies, but of those 14 million are in America (and 1 million in the Philippines - the split is 3 million NG, 4 million Peru and Rio de la Plata, 7 million Mexico and the West Indies). So while they have a serious advantage in equipment, in any long drawn out fight they're likely to lose, especially as the leaders of the various rebellions are veterans of the spanish army to begin with. The problem is not finding men, it's finding muskets, horses and cannons.

 

[Admiral Brown]

... Would unrestricted (but non-abortional) birth control have any effect on South America's economic future?

It might have reduced problems in places like El Salvador, and might have helped to aliviate poverty in parts of Mexico. But it wouldn't have any effect in the South Cone (Chile, Argentina or Uruguay) which don't have high rates of population growth, and haven't had those throughout the century.

 

[Admiral Brown]

mmmhhh

I'm curious, what would it take to keep a Grand Colombia that stayed together?

I'm afraid simply keeping Colombia toghether has been terrible hard OTL, due to its complicated topography and climate. It has plenty of mountains and jungle, and its a perfect place for a guerrilla to hide. Only in the last five years has the Colombian state been able to place national policemen and state civil servicemen in all the municipalities of the country, which was something Chile did in the 1850ies!

Keeping Gran Colombia toghether, while not impossible, wouldn't have been easy, as it would be hard to build roads conecting the coutry and reinforcing the power of the state.

 

[juanml82]

Quantity is probably the main advantage spanish america has over the US for a fight for independence: the US was barely more than 3 million people out of a total population of more or less 22 million for the United Kingdom and its colonies; Spain has about 26 million people with its colonies, but of those 14 million are in America (and 1 million in the Philippines - the split is 3 million NG, 4 million Peru and Rio de la Plata, 7 million Mexico and the West Indies). So while they have a serious advantage in equipment, in any long drawn out fight they're likely to lose, especially as the leaders of the various rebellions are veterans of the spanish army to begin with. The problem is not finding men, it's finding muskets, horses and cannons.

Yet one of the main problems the revolutionaries found fighting the war was quality. You're right about winning in the long run with just quantity, which is what happened. The war lasted for 14 years and eventually all Spanish territories in South America ended up independent. However, a good officer cadre and better discipline among the grunts would seriously speed up the process. Too many battles were lost because nobody, from the freed slaves making the infantry to the rich businessmen turned into generals, knew how to fight a war.

 

[corditeman]

Regarding war materiel...

... End of the Napoleonic war, a lot of stuff must have been lying around. Maybe Britain could send some shiploads to Buenos Aires in return for grain, hides and salted meat. An earlier POD for efforts to chill or can beef could help with investment - so would earlier OXO and Corned Beef help the United Provinces?

Or maybe some of Wellington's Peninsular veterans would consider emigrating to Argentina? Brigade-Major Harry Smith of the Rifle Brigade, his wife Juana and their friend Kincaid? Useful people...

And I'm sorry, folks, but the Royal Navy's South Atlantic Squadron is going to need somewhere nearer than Simonstown (South Africa) so the Falklands remains British - unless BTdF occurs...

BTW, I'm working on Coronel and after. Von Spee nearly gave the Royal Navy hell at the Falklands (OK, Malvinas for you, Pete amigo). There's a guess at What Happens Next...

 

[juanml82]

And I'm sorry, folks, but the Royal Navy's South Atlantic Squadron is going to need somewhere nearer than Simonstown (South Africa) so the Falklands remains British - unless BTdF occurs...

The UK occupied the islands in 1833 so there is plenty of time for a reasonable pod.

 

[Petete123123]

The UK occupied the islands in 1833 so there is plenty of time for a reasonable pod.

That's right. And if we have a united country with a navy, UK at most can go to TDF or fight for them. But this big country would surely be a more important trading partner for them than OTL Argentina was in 1830, so they might not even try to get them if there are Argentineans there.

Also, about TDF, it really depends if Argentina wants to accept it. As Cordi and I have discussed before, determination from the British will be vital here.
But you always have South Georgia

 

[archaeogeek]

The UK occupied the islands in 1833 so there is plenty of time for a reasonable pod.

And it doesn't take much to just negotiate coaling rights anyway, I doubt either party would have much success in maintaining a major non-military settlement on it.

 

[Snake Featherston]

One way to avert things would be if there's more of an indigenous trend that would favor liberal governments. Sure, Latin America broke away by military revolt, but then so did the USA, which had plenty of autocratic overtones itself until quite recently. The USA has developed (very imperfectly) a liberal society.

Some South American societies, namely Argentina, Brazil, and Chile could do this also rather easily. I don't know enough of their histories beyond the roughest details to say how. Mexico might also be able to do this....but is North American and hence doesn't count.

 

[Petete123123]

And it doesn't take much to just negotiate coaling rights anyway, I doubt either party would have much success in maintaining a major non-military settlement on it.

Argentina can, but it depends when do you want it. Before 1950 I doubt it. But after 1950, a good industrial policy(like the one which made TDF go from 4.000 inhabitans in 1950 to about 145.000 by now, more than 300% in 60 years), or a discovery of much oil, then it's easy. Before that it's impossible.
But if it remains a sheep herding society, then Argentina can have as much as 8.000 in the islands.

 

[archaeogeek]

Argentina can, but it depends when do you want it. Before 1950 I doubt it. But after 1950, a good industrial policy(like the one which made TDF go from 4.000 inhabitans in 1950 to about 145.000 by now, more than 300% in 60 years), or a discovery of much oil, then it's easy. Before that it's impossible.
But if it remains a sheep herding society, then Argentina can have as much as 8.000 in the islands.

That could work, so, say maybe about 30.000 Malvin@s with industrial settlements? It's arguable that part of the reason the islands still stagnate at around 2.000 inhabitants today is that they're really just used for sheep and the Royal Navy, but I'm not entirely sure.