Seeing that the Japanese were an allied power in WW1, combined with the German support for China before WW2, would it be possible for Japan to become an Allied Power in the Second World War? Specifically, How would this be possible? And how would this affect the war itself? But mainly How?
AHC: Make Japan an Allied Power in WW2
- Thread starter Marklin
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- japan world war 2 ww2
Perhaps make the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact last longer or the Soviet Union join the Axis.
The Diet needs to suck in its gut and twist the army's arm until it executes the plotters behind the Huanggutun Incident. The Army was allowed to (literally in that case) get away with murder in China for so long that they were able to get away with it in Japan as well. The army's independent streak needs to be curbed before the officer class gets radicalized by the Great Depression.
Have WW1 end earlier
Less US influence Post war results in British and Japanese relations remaining stronger and not being cast aside by the British (quite understandably) in favour of the USA.
With the British having more influence and coupled with a stronger Civilian government that manages to (as suggested above) bring the military to heel results in a more democratic Japan in to the 1930s placing it into the 'Democracy camp' along with the USA, Britain and France come the unpleasantness of the Late 30's
Less US influence Post war results in British and Japanese relations remaining stronger and not being cast aside by the British (quite understandably) in favour of the USA.
With the British having more influence and coupled with a stronger Civilian government that manages to (as suggested above) bring the military to heel results in a more democratic Japan in to the 1930s placing it into the 'Democracy camp' along with the USA, Britain and France come the unpleasantness of the Late 30's
Allied power is tough, but a Japanese Empire which is able to remain neutral seems to be at least MORE plausible to me? Japanese expansionism in the 1930s had proceeded without triggering a major war with the European powers, and the Axis didn't form until 1940. There were strong relationships for a while between Germany and the KMT, and it's possible to imagine a greater anti-Soviet commitment there keeping Germany and Japan out of a direct alliance.
Or Japan/Greater East Asia Sphere becoming a third faction that fights against both the Axis and Allies or neither of them, just like in TL191.
If you were to find a way to prevent the Japanese armed forces from gaining much political authority over the nation during the 1920s by having more pro-democratic political leaders rise to power, not only does the Empire of Japan likely not descend into fascism but it would also probably not be as expansionistic, thus meaning that there wouldn't be a desire to invade European and American colonies in the region or even, assuming expansionism is really neutered, a desire to invade China. The thing here is that Japan wouldn't really be a main force in WWII due to its distance from the fighting in Europe, but the IJN was involved in some activity around Europe in WWI so I could see some involvement by the Japanese abroad.
Alternatively, you could find a way to preserve cooperation between the KMT and Nazi Germany, thus resulting in the RoC joining the Axis Powers and causing Japan to de facto align itself with the Allies. With that being said, assuming Japan is more or less politically the same as OTL in this scenario, the Empire of Japan still wouldn't have very friendly relations with the British and Americans. They probably wouldn't engage with each other during WWII due to the Japanese and the other Allied Powers in the region cooperating against China (although I think you could make a really cool TL where an Allied Japan still bombs Pearl Harbor and forces the US to join the Axis), but post-war relations between Japan and its former allies definitely wouldn't be warm. The Empire of Japan would be in a similar position with regards to the rest of Allies as the Soviet Union was in OTL.
Alternatively, you could find a way to preserve cooperation between the KMT and Nazi Germany, thus resulting in the RoC joining the Axis Powers and causing Japan to de facto align itself with the Allies. With that being said, assuming Japan is more or less politically the same as OTL in this scenario, the Empire of Japan still wouldn't have very friendly relations with the British and Americans. They probably wouldn't engage with each other during WWII due to the Japanese and the other Allied Powers in the region cooperating against China (although I think you could make a really cool TL where an Allied Japan still bombs Pearl Harbor and forces the US to join the Axis), but post-war relations between Japan and its former allies definitely wouldn't be warm. The Empire of Japan would be in a similar position with regards to the rest of Allies as the Soviet Union was in OTL.
What about a rift between the Americans and British? Cryhavoc101 has pointed out that the Anglo-American relationship would be weaker if British war debt were smaller.
What if the yellow press in the United States ran away with the sudden death of Warren Harding and American attitudes toward the British had chilled as a result? Then go with the kind of scenario presented by Dr. Mike Bennighoff in his Second Great War series: a white peace ends a much shorter Great War after the Americans refuse to bankroll the mess. Per his vision, this in turn means that the British can suppress the Easter Rising entirely, further alienating American public opinion.
Subsequently, there is less interest on the American side in supporting the British position during the Second World War, though presumably elite opinion would form a bulwark against closer relations with the Germans. Meanwhile, the British, pressed to the uttermost, decide that writing off the French in Indochina and the Dutch in the Indies (along with closing the Burma Road) are costs they can bear.
In this scenario, British acquiescence in Japanese conquests--and the promise that the Royal Navy will not distract Japanese forces--is a gift far superior to what Germany or Italy can hope to offer the Japanese through membership in the Tripartite Pact.
What if the yellow press in the United States ran away with the sudden death of Warren Harding and American attitudes toward the British had chilled as a result? Then go with the kind of scenario presented by Dr. Mike Bennighoff in his Second Great War series: a white peace ends a much shorter Great War after the Americans refuse to bankroll the mess. Per his vision, this in turn means that the British can suppress the Easter Rising entirely, further alienating American public opinion.
Subsequently, there is less interest on the American side in supporting the British position during the Second World War, though presumably elite opinion would form a bulwark against closer relations with the Germans. Meanwhile, the British, pressed to the uttermost, decide that writing off the French in Indochina and the Dutch in the Indies (along with closing the Burma Road) are costs they can bear.
In this scenario, British acquiescence in Japanese conquests--and the promise that the Royal Navy will not distract Japanese forces--is a gift far superior to what Germany or Italy can hope to offer the Japanese through membership in the Tripartite Pact.
You'd have to change the KMT so much to have a KMT that joins the Axis Powers that it won't recognizably be the KMT anymore.
There's also the sticky problem that China doesn't gain anything from an alliance with the Axis.
If the USSR intervened against the KMT, I could see Nationalist China join an alternate Anti-Comintern Pact. The Sino-German alliance would be much more born out of opposition to the Soviet Union than any mutual interest in expansion. Alternatively, I do think that there are ways to have fascist-esque movements or at least right-wing authoritarian military strongmen rise to power within the KMT if you go back far enough, but as you said it would be a very different organization from the KMT of OTL.
Well, the KMT IOTL did have strong Sinofascist tendencies in the Blue Shirts Society.
The KMT would just cosy up even more with western powers (especially the US) thanks to the US education of its leaders/elites and preexisting ties to the China Lobby.
This TL did it very well indeed... https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...finished-tl-of-the-berlin-moscow-axis.461256/
Members of the Blue Shirts did manage to get some important government positions, but they never developed a Blue Shirts powerbase in those institutions (meaning that the moment that Chiang/Wang/Sun the Younger fire the Blue Shirts, their power from say, the Ministry of War, was gone) or had their own armed faction in a meaningful sense.
Dolan
Banned
I have a weird image of FDR sticking like a sore thumb between Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, and Chiang.
Not an expert on the topic by any means, but I feel like that’s the kinda stuff that could be eliminated with some relatively straightforward butterflies.
Something I for one would do is have Emperor Hirohito become disillusioned with the military fanatics, and replace them with the more moderate navy command.
Dolan
Banned
The thing is, Kuomintang China actually doing better in crushing the Warlords, preferably because of German advisors help during the Sino-German cooperation parts, would certainly do the trick.
Also this China partially industrializes and actively engaged Japan on Manchurian front (nothing big initially, just skirmishes and tit for tat attacks).
Then Hitler invaded Poland, sparking WW2, and made overtures to China to attack Indochina to made diversions for France.
Chiang still mulls things up, but Fall of France happened and China thought Axis is on the path of victory, decides to "liberating" French Indochina and South East Asia. Unlike Japan IOTL though, they were sincere in their liberation (since they didn't hope to hold them) and just put leaderships into the habds of grateful native leaders there, because China's real aim is to wheel North after fulfilling their promise to Germany, and smash through Manchuria and Korea to reunite China for good.
Just in time with Japan attacking China to alleviate pressure on their Western European allies.
US being explicitly both pro-china yet also pro Western Europe, decided that they'll go full neutral. China managed to get Manchuria but stuck in Korea...
And then Soviet Union attacked China, sparked Germany to try Barbarossa earlier, and now US supporting Axis more...
Suddenly, Britain, warry with US aid to Axis countries... Decides of surprise attack on Norfolk. The Day of Infamy is done ITTL By THE PERFIDIOUS ALBION.
...
Long Story Short, in alternate conference discussing Post-War Order, FDR sticking like a sore thumb between Hitler, Mussolini, and Chiang, all while loathing how he must smile, shook hands, and sit at Hitler's side.
Also this China partially industrializes and actively engaged Japan on Manchurian front (nothing big initially, just skirmishes and tit for tat attacks).
Then Hitler invaded Poland, sparking WW2, and made overtures to China to attack Indochina to made diversions for France.
Chiang still mulls things up, but Fall of France happened and China thought Axis is on the path of victory, decides to "liberating" French Indochina and South East Asia. Unlike Japan IOTL though, they were sincere in their liberation (since they didn't hope to hold them) and just put leaderships into the habds of grateful native leaders there, because China's real aim is to wheel North after fulfilling their promise to Germany, and smash through Manchuria and Korea to reunite China for good.
Just in time with Japan attacking China to alleviate pressure on their Western European allies.
US being explicitly both pro-china yet also pro Western Europe, decided that they'll go full neutral. China managed to get Manchuria but stuck in Korea...
And then Soviet Union attacked China, sparked Germany to try Barbarossa earlier, and now US supporting Axis more...
Suddenly, Britain, warry with US aid to Axis countries... Decides of surprise attack on Norfolk. The Day of Infamy is done ITTL By THE PERFIDIOUS ALBION.
...
Long Story Short, in alternate conference discussing Post-War Order, FDR sticking like a sore thumb between Hitler, Mussolini, and Chiang, all while loathing how he must smile, shook hands, and sit at Hitler's side.