With any POD that does not prevent the Battle of Midway from still being fought in the almost the exact same circumstances that it was in OTL, have the the 28th Infantry Regiment under the command of Kiyonao Ichiki successfully invade and capture Midway. Assume for the purpose of the scenario that the Japanese got lucky and won the Battle of Midway without any major losses that would effect a shore bombardment of the island.
AHC: Japan successfully invades and captures Midway
- Thread starter AbeLincoln1865
- Start date
Dirk_Pitt
Banned
All this does is maybe buy Japan an added 6 months(it isn't guaranteed).
Really depends on how much of a disaster the Battle of Midway is for the Allies. Is it a total victory for the IJN or do the Allie fleet manage to withdraw with heavy damage? What is the allied response to the Japanese Victory?
Really depends on how much of a disaster the Battle of Midway is for the Allies. Is it a total victory for the IJN or do the Allie fleet manage to withdraw with heavy damage? What is the allied response to the Japanese Victory?
Only way it works is if the Japanese learn their codes have been broken and it is essentially a total surprise attack. If this be the case, then the Japanese get away without losing carriers. However, how do they retain the island long term? Even if it is a total victory, it buys only six months (sans nukes) unless by some butterfly the Japanese after this point score a major naval victory against the US defending the island (which is possible, as they would have the airfield on the island and more carriers in 1942.) However, the Japanese already had a pilot and plane shortage in 1942. So, in other words, it buys little time more. By 1943, the US will have more carriers anyway.
Saphroneth
Banned
It says a lot that the Japanese spent a year rebuilding their CAGs, and then lost them in about three days of intensive combat.
Saphroneth
Banned
The problem there is that the naval battle is not the invasion. Midway was strongly held - it's going to take more than the Japanese assigned to the attack, if the PoD is during the Battle of Midway itself.
I think the idea of their codes being changed is a good one, as it means Midway will be less heavily held (fewer tanks? Certainly fewer men and less defences, as well as less aircraft.)
The handful of Japanese survivors that managed to take the island(s) starve to death. Those that aren't killed by the daily raids by 18-100 B-17s, that is.
Even if Japan could take Midway, they couldn't supply it long term. The Americans would use it as a bomber/submarine/bombardment live fire exercise area.
Even if Japan could take Midway, they couldn't supply it long term. The Americans would use it as a bomber/submarine/bombardment live fire exercise area.
The Japanese carrier air groups at Marianas in June 1944 had been rebuilt from earlier in 1944, (February?) where they had been badly attrited in action around Rabaul and I think Truk. Some carriers, (like Zuikaku) had committed their airgroups multiple times around Rabual in 1943-1944, each time leading to the need to rebuild it.
So, the possibility of another Wake Island then. This I doubt. I wonder whether it more likely that 1st USMC (reinforced) would be assigned to retake the island in August or September 1942 by direct assault.
Rubicon
Banned
Yes and they rebuilt them again after the Phillippine Sea as well, but it was squandered away when Halsey made his run on the Phillippines, which meant Ozawas carriers were more or less down to a third of their complements at Leyte, thus they becoming bait.
So the whole myth that Japan had training problems were just that a myth. Sure these new recruits weren't nearly as well trained as their pre-war veterans. But they did manage to rebuild their airgroups several times.
What mostly let the carrier groups down was the lack of competetive airplanes, by mid -43 the A6M-series was more or less obsolete.
How about instead of the Japanese invading the Aleutian Islands, they bring those forces to help in the battle of Midway?
sharlin
Banned
Thing is the Aleutin's was not a sideshow or distraction but a proper full blooded operation that was ordered by the Japanese military. Taking them and Midway was meant to be a mutually supporting operation. Not a distraction or anything.
Probably the easiest way for the Japanese to accomplish this is for Nimitz to decide to not commit his carriers at Midway on the assumption that the risk is too great and that Midway can be retaken fairly easily.
So, Japanese come to Midway, only the forces on Midway oppose them. The landing is a blood bath but the Japanese win through brute force but are left with an exposed outpost that has had its major facilities wrecked. Sustaining Midway becomes a pain in the @$$ for the Japanese and the US retakes it later in 1942.
Oh and Nimitz becomes a four letter word in the US Marine Corps.
So, Japanese come to Midway, only the forces on Midway oppose them. The landing is a blood bath but the Japanese win through brute force but are left with an exposed outpost that has had its major facilities wrecked. Sustaining Midway becomes a pain in the @$$ for the Japanese and the US retakes it later in 1942.
Oh and Nimitz becomes a four letter word in the US Marine Corps.
You expect a Regiment, without proper landing boats, much less amtracs, to make a successful combat landing on an Island with defenses that make Tarawa look like Disney World?
I'm not sure the Japanese could dig up enough extra rifles to equip all the assault waves they would need to expend to take the Island (actually the two islands, protected by a coral reef).
The initial IJN air attack didn't even scratch the defenses. The Yamato wasn't carrying bombardment rounds, neither were the fast BB escorting the Kido Butai. The expectation was that a short bombardment from a couple cruisers would do the job.
However, assuming the Japanese somehow make it work, after losing 5,000 or so troops in the process, Midway become the location where the IJN dies. Holding it would be a nightmare. U.S. subs could reach the area kill anything there (even with crappy torpedoes they would still get around 30% detonations) and be back to Pearl before the milk goes sour.
I'm not sure the Japanese could dig up enough extra rifles to equip all the assault waves they would need to expend to take the Island (actually the two islands, protected by a coral reef).
The initial IJN air attack didn't even scratch the defenses. The Yamato wasn't carrying bombardment rounds, neither were the fast BB escorting the Kido Butai. The expectation was that a short bombardment from a couple cruisers would do the job.
However, assuming the Japanese somehow make it work, after losing 5,000 or so troops in the process, Midway become the location where the IJN dies. Holding it would be a nightmare. U.S. subs could reach the area kill anything there (even with crappy torpedoes they would still get around 30% detonations) and be back to Pearl before the milk goes sour.
I see that you like most of the people in this thread, didn't read the Title or OP. This an Alternate History Challenge not a What If. We're here to discuss how the scenario I postulated could come about, not what would happen afterwards. You could have used any POD you wanted but instead you decided to criticize instead of thinking up of one. Obviously the point you just raised in the bolded part would be a required POD but Ichiki's Regiment would need more changes to succeed.
