AHC: Israeli Sinai

[The Kiat]

That sucks, if Egypt didn't want Israel to pump Sinai oil they shouldn't have precipitated a war by closing the Straits of Tiran and then lost.

I guess having greater access to the Red Sea would be a strategic reason for holding on to that land.

 

[Riain]

Excactly, closing Tiran St was a stated cassus belli for Israel and a major reason why they held the Sinai until a proper peace treaty with gauruntees was settled.

 

[Wolfpaw]

Eisenhower after his retirement viewed his failure to back France-UK-Israel as the worst failure of his President, he backs their play, the USSR isn't ending the world for Nasser, and Sinai is Israeli.

Not Eisenhower nor the Anglo-French ever supported giving the Sinai to Israel.

got to disagree with you there, 1956 is the best call, Israel gets the Sinai, Nasser stays in power (like post 1967) Egypt won't attack the French-British Suez zone, thus can't hit Israel and with out a win of some kind the Egyptian people will never ever go for Peace, maybe Israel would never annex but it'd be de facto theirs forever

Nasser will not stay in power in any Tripartite Victory scenario, period. To Eden, getting rid of Nasser (who he seems to have considered a latter-day Mussolini) was Goal #1 of the Suez campaign, not really control of the Canal (which it had already agreed to hand over and had already removed troops from).

The British and the French are the ones calling the shots since they're stated intention is to "separate the combatants" (Israel and Egypt) to protect the Canal Zone. They wanted Nasser out and the CZ secured with UN (preferably deputized Anglo-French and Commonwealth) peacekeepers and the territory made a permanent international zone via treaty, in that order. The Israelis were rather openly allies of convenience; the only thing uniting the Tripartite powers was a shared hatred for Nasser.

Relations-wise, the British planners refused to be in even the same room as the Israelis, leaving the French officers to shuttle back and forth trying to act as coordinators. The British were also very conscious of the negativity this whole adventure would generate with their Arab clients, and absolutely did not want to be seen as at all aligned or sympathetic to Israel (hence the Evian fiasco, the Watergate of the 1950s), only anti-Nasser and as the "pro-peace" party in their manufactured war.

Israel already accomplished its stated war goals, which was wiping out the Egyptian-backed fedayeen bases in Gaza. The Sinai occupation was a bargaining chip, and none (save for the most alarmist anti-Zionists and the most fanatical Zionists) ever presumed indefinite Israeli occupation of the Sinai. True, Ben-Gurion did vomit out that atrociously jingoistic victory speech to the Knesset in November of '56 where he talked about annexing the Sinai and restoring "the Third Kingdom of Israel" and "Solomon's Patrimony" and some such rot, but that was mostly to sound tough. It wound up biting the usually sober and realistic Ben-Gurion on the ass, alienating both friend and foe. Eisenhower threatened to cut off all US aid to Israel if they didn't leave the Sinai. The USSR said "Nyet," the Anglo-French said "no." So BG gave it up because keeping it was untenable; the Sinai was and is recognized as Egyptian territory. This was never under serious dispute. It was the state of the Canal Zone's sovereignty that was in question.

 

[Blackfox5]

Not Eisenhower nor the Anglo-French ever supported giving the Sinai to Israel.

If the Suez Crisis is resolved with a Franco-British victory, how do you think Egyptian-Israeli peace will play out?

Israel will have defacto control of the Sinai. Nasser will be humiliated and probably forced out of office, but one of his army buddies will likely replace him. The new guy may understand the need to not anger the French and British, but he won't want to play nice with Israel.

So does he sign an actual peace agreement to get the Sinai back? Refuse to make peace at all, and thus keep Israeli troops in the Sinai? Something else?

The French and the British may not want Israel to have the Sinai, but unless the Egyptian government is prepared to engage with Israel, I'm not sure how they can arrange for Israeli troops to leave and Egypt reclaim anything. The British can offer to mediate all they want, but unless Egypt agrees to meet with the Israelis, I see Israel holding onto the Sinai for a very long time. A Sinai occupied for 20+ years instead of less than 10 is something a lot harder to surrender.

 

[Wolfpaw]

If the Suez Crisis is resolved with a Franco-British victory, how do you think Egyptian-Israeli peace will play out?

Israel will have defacto control of the Sinai. Nasser will be humiliated and probably forced out of office, but one of his army buddies will likely replace him. The new guy may understand the need to not anger the French and British, but he won't want to play nice with Israel.

So does he sign an actual peace agreement to get the Sinai back? Refuse to make peace at all, and thus keep Israeli troops in the Sinai? Something else?

The French and the British may not want Israel to have the Sinai, but unless the Egyptian government is prepared to engage with Israel, I'm not sure how they can arrange for Israeli troops to leave and Egypt reclaim anything. The British can offer to mediate all they want, but unless Egypt agrees to meet with the Israelis, I see Israel holding onto the Sinai for a very long time. A Sinai occupied for 20+ years instead of less than 10 is something a lot harder to surrender.

The Israelis (having already achieved their stated war aims of neutralizing Egyptian-backed fedayeen in Gaza) withdraw back to their own borders, at most achieving a demilitarization of the Sinai. Only the most extreme Zionists considered the Sinai to be Israeli land, and apart from Ben-Gurion's ugly speech, no Israeli government ever claimed the Sinai.

The British, the French, Americans, and entire international community will be telling Israel to get out, just as in OTL, to be replaced by international peacekeepers. If they are really obstinate, Eisenhower goes through with his plan to cut aid to Israel and exerts pressure in the UN to force a withdrawal from Egyptian territory.