As it says on the tin, with a POD of 1967 get Israel to keep the Sinai Peninsula to this day.
AHC: Israel keeps the Sinai Peninsula
- Thread starter CarlosTheAltHistoryGuy
- Start date
Maybe the ILO takes power, establishing an Islamist state which leads to a remaining Israeli Sinai.
Avoid the Yom Kippur War? That’s probably the best bet, at least off the top of my head. Israel in Sinai, Egypt on the other side, and the UN forcing the Suez Canal to be opened to international shipping.
Ramontxo
Donor
And the other way round. Keeping the peninsula makes it impossible to close the conflict with Egypt.
Basically, this. If the Camp David Accords and general thaw of Egyptian-Israeli elections does not occur, then it is entirely plausible for the Israeli government of the era to double down and refuse to give up the Sinai, insisting it has a right under U.N. declarations to defensible national boundaries, and keeping the Sinai as a buffer zone achieves that goal.
No chance for Israeli-Egyptian peace. The loss of the Sinai and parts of the Suez was a national wound too large to ignore for Egypt, and only victory (perceived or not) in the Yom Kippur war allowed a peace that had both sides feel like winners.
The question is - would Israel gain anything from the Sinai? I'm not sure if the world would accept Israel taking tolls on ships passing through Suez in addition to the Egyptian ones, so what else? Tourism revenue? Oil extraction?
The Sinai peninsula saw some Israeli settlement, and even after the return it's a surprisingly popular tourist destination. Combine that with the natural gas and petroleum deposits I imagine it would be a fairly decent rural area with a big military presence on the Egyptian border - somewhat similar to Golan Heights but with less wineries, more oil. If Israel holds onto it until the 21st century the level of economic development and spiritual importance means it probably stays in Israeli hands perpetually. Israel's reputation is slightly worse but there's probably not a huge bloc that would have liked Israel before but hate them now.
Meanwhile without the 1978 Camp David accords Egypt lies outside the American sphere of influence. Without post-78 US money and support Egypt is likely poorer and less stable. We might see a Libya-style intervention if this more isolated Egypt sees massive unrest, or a First Gulf War rapid defeat if Egypt gets too assertive. In the 21st century Egypt is a likely potential client of modern Russia a la Syria, or a much more significant partner to China given their key geography and lack of alternatives. Given how long the Sinai Peninsula has been part of Egypt, this becomes a major flashpoint with intermittent tensions.
The implications for the Gaza strip are interesting. It would be completely surrounded by Israel. Does this make them more hostile or weaker and less of a threat?
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Until 2005 Gaza was under the same status as the west Bank today, settlements and all. If the Sinai gets the same status as the Golan (aka officially annexed, citizenship offered to residents), dealing with Gaza on a diplomatic level will become even more complicated.
OTL Egypt also participates in the blockade, so I don't see an ATL Gaza being significacantly weaker, but Hamas might be butterflied away. Some form of Palestinian resistance will form there, as tends to happen in occupied territory, but Israel might snip that particular Islamic nip in the bud.
Remove Sadat? From what I remember, he faced strong opposition from other Egyptians over his peace plans with Israel. Anything that prevents rapprochement between Egypt and Israel, would mean that Israel is going to keep the Sinai peninsula and probably heavily settle it.
Space. Land is the real benefit. Land to settle and land that gives the Israelis some Strategic depth. Part of the reason for the 1967 war, is that Israel is such a small country that one or two mistakes could lead to their destruction. With the Sinai peninsula, Israel was 4x larger and would give their military more room to maneuver.
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The main thing Israel gains by taking and holding the Sinai is strategic depth. It gives them a buffer, a zone of empty land which they could afford to give up in the face of an invading army. Of course permitting their people to settle on the peninsula sort of nullified that, but they had a basically sound objective at the start. If the peace talks with Egypt fall through, or simply don't happen, then Israel may wish to hold on to the Sinai as a way to ensure their security in the face of a hostile Egypt.
I don't think settling the peninsula nullifies the strategic benefit of keeping it. One of the great strengths of Russia and why they were able to come back from initial defeats against the French and the Germans, was that they were able to trade land for time. Even though the bulk of Russia's population in the West.
I might be misunderstanding you though.
I think the issue here is one of density. Also, while the Russians were able to trade space for time, they did so at horrendous cost in lives, particularly among the civilians in the path of the invaders. My argument here is less having the settlements there makes it 100% invalid, and more that it somewhat defeats one of the main purposes of the venture, which is to protect the Israeli populace from having war on their doorsteps.
Yeah. That's a fair point. I guess the other reason would be to increase their demographics. Israel is one of the only developed countries that's maintained an above replacement birth rate. Larger countries can generally support larger populations. Countries with larger populations, tend to have larger economies and more men (and women in this case) to conscript soldiers from.
Sadat get's "retired" when he tries to send home his Soviet Advisors. His successor selected by Moscow, initiates the Yom Kippur war with the same mistakes made on both sides. However, this time around the US has no interest in saving the Egyptian third army after Sharon's counter crossing. The Israelis seize the canal and threaten Cairo. The USSR airlifts an army group to protect Cairo from International Zionism (TM). The US mediates both countries back to the 1967 disengagement lines with assurances for its own shipping through the canal. Israel now being a frontline state against International Communism (TM) is no longer pressured for any land for peace agreements. Although the possibility of enlarging Gaza into Sinai as part of an Israeli/Palestinian agreement gets floated about.