AHC: How big can Italy get without the Axis?

Your challenge, should you chose to accept it, is to make Italy as big as possible without Mussolini entering into an alliance with Hitler, and with a POD no earlier then 1934.

This includes protectorates, puppets and occupation zones as well as directly annexed territory.

Go at it!
 
They'd most likely get bogged down in Yugoslavia or Greece until someone interferes.

That's rather dismissive.

An Italy that does not ally with Nazi Germany is going to either ally with Britain and France or remain neutral, and as this is Mussolinis Italy they are obviously going to intervene.

An effect of this could be that they recieve some help in modernising their military as opposed to becoming a laughing stock by trying to copy the Nazis.
 

Esopo

Banned
Mussolini's foreign policy since the beginnin was in opposition to the western allies. Its difficult to see how he can develop a real collaboration with france and britain, and most of all give up his plans against jugoslavia.
 
Mussolini's foreign policy since the beginnin was in opposition to the western allies. Its difficult to see how he can develop a real collaboration with france and britain, and most of all give up his plans against jugoslavia.

Well that is why it's a challenge isn't it?
 
That's rather dismissive.

An Italy that does not ally with Nazi Germany is going to either ally with Britain and France or remain neutral, and as this is Mussolinis Italy they are obviously going to intervene.

An effect of this could be that they recieve some help in modernising their military as opposed to becoming a laughing stock by trying to copy the Nazis.

Italy didn't need help modernising her military nearly as much she needed to have her military leadership torn apart and remade. Besides, the generic "Nation X gives Ally Z military aid and now Z is awesome" is about as vague and as creative as "Nation W went through reforms and now is awesome". Military aid of OTL proportions outside of the Lend-Lease scale doesn't make a nation suddenly be able to kick the asses of nations it couldn't previously.
 
Italy didn't need help modernising her military nearly as much she needed to have her military leadership torn apart and remade. Besides, the generic "Nation X gives Ally Z military aid and now Z is awesome" is about as vague and as creative as "Nation W went through reforms and now is awesome". Military aid of OTL proportions outside of the Lend-Lease scale doesn't make a nation suddenly be able to kick the asses of nations it couldn't previously.

It can to the extent where it makes nation Z realise "Oh shit, our tanks/planes/rifles are fucking awful compared to theirs!"

I don't even know why I'm arguing this, I've issued the challenge I don't need to defend Italy.
 

MSZ

Banned
With a PoD after 1934, you still can get Italy into the allied camp by joining the Stresa Front. This would mean getting only half of Abyssynia, but would give them a better chance in demanding something after a Allies-Germany war.

Problem is, what could they demand? The French would not give up Nice. Switzerland is untouchable. Yugoslavia is unlikely to start a war on the Axis side and the Allied unlikely to support Italian aggression against it - but if Italy tried another Ethiopia scenario, moving in to occupy Rijeka and demanding a Munich for the world to accept it, it might happen. Supposing a german-allies war, Italy may end up occupying Austria as well, turning it into a puppet state.

If the Stresa Front is established, but once the war starts Italy refuses to join without getting something more, the allies being desperate could accept giving up parts of Egypt (I heard that Churchill was willing to give parts of Egypt to Italy in return for neutrality OTL) and Tunisia to it.

So overall Italy can get half of Abyssynia, more of North Africa, Rijeka and an Austrian puppet state.
 
With a PoD after 1934, you still can get Italy into the allied camp by joining the Stresa Front. This would mean getting only half of Abyssynia, but would give them a better chance in demanding something after a Allies-Germany war.

Problem is, what could they demand? The French would not give up Nice. Switzerland is untouchable. Yugoslavia is unlikely to start a war on the Axis side and the Allied unlikely to support Italian aggression against it - but if Italy tried another Ethiopia scenario, moving in to occupy Rijeka and demanding a Munich for the world to accept it, it might happen. Supposing a german-allies war, Italy may end up occupying Austria as well, turning it into a puppet state.

Austria was already on their side, unless the Germans pull an Anschluss out of their collective ass, Italy will have no need to repuppetize them.

Now a surprise Italo-Austrian attack on Bavaria whilst the Germans and Allies are duking it out in the Rhineland, that would be more interesting.
 
With a PoD after 1934, you still can get Italy into the allied camp by joining the Stresa Front. This would mean getting only half of Abyssynia, but would give them a better chance in demanding something after a Allies-Germany war.

Problem is, what could they demand? The French would not give up Nice. Switzerland is untouchable. Yugoslavia is unlikely to start a war on the Axis side and the Allied unlikely to support Italian aggression against it - but if Italy tried another Ethiopia scenario, moving in to occupy Rijeka and demanding a Munich for the world to accept it, it might happen. Supposing a german-allies war, Italy may end up occupying Austria as well, turning it into a puppet state.

If the Stresa Front is established, but once the war starts Italy refuses to join without getting something more, the allies being desperate could accept giving up parts of Egypt (I heard that Churchill was willing to give parts of Egypt to Italy in return for neutrality OTL) and Tunisia to it.

So overall Italy can get half of Abyssynia, more of North Africa, Rijeka and an Austrian puppet state.

If I remember correctly, the French too were ready to give Djibouti and some other territories in Africa to Mussolini if he stayed neutral.
 
It can to the extent where it makes nation Z realise "Oh shit, our tanks/planes/rifles are fucking awful compared to theirs!"
The Italians were aware that their equipment wasn't as good as the British/etc generally speaking, so aid in this case doesn't mean anything. The Italian equipment/military hardward wasn't as good as other due to variety of reasons but to say that getting some aid would change that is simply wrong.

As for the challenge, the Italians under Mussolini were a wild card foriegn policy wise. Mussolini wanted Italy to become great again, it didn't matter how or with who, thus the Stressa front and the later Pact of Steel and so forth. For areas of potential Italian expansionism, as it was pointed out, the main area, Yugoslavia, wouldn't be keen on upsetting the Allies. But somehow having just that happen would fulfill the challenge.

For what to cause Yugoslavia to jump in with Germany... I'd recommend Albania. It's vauge, but I assume specifics aren't necessary in this case. Yugoslavia gets its hand slapped by the UK and France for trying to say, annex Albania, Germany (and perhaps with some encouragement by Germany) Hungary are supportive of Yugoslavia as well. As Albania was Italy's playground in Europe it would spurn the Italians from Germany for the moment.
 
Have Mussolini accept the Anglo-French proposal of gaining Djibouti and trade rights in Tunisia in exchange for not invading Ethiopia.

Couple of years later, the British, in desperate need of italian support in some european crisis involving the nazis, accept to sell british somaliland to the italians in return for their support. The nazis back down over the issue, only to push for it again later and find an inexistent allied response. This convinces the Mussolini that the Allies are weak and also that Hitler will have no problem backstabbing him should he feel like it, and so decides to pursue a neutral strategy.

Albania is made into a puppet state as OTL.

Once war breaks out between Germany and the Allies, Mussolini goes for Yugoslavia, using the existing interethnic tensions to his advantage. The war drags on for a bit, until Bulgaria and Hungary opportunistically intervene on the Italian side. A peace agreement is reached, whereby Budapest and Sofia each get a small slice of territory, Italy directly gains some coastal regions and Croatia and Montenogro are created as Italian puppets.


Towards the end of the war, Italy agrees to join the allies in return for lend-lease, lots of cash and cheap loans, an acknowledgement of their territorial gains and a promise that Ethiopia will be in their sphere of influence. Allied victory in late 1944.

Years after the war, Mussolini uses some excuse to cause a civil war in Ethiopia and, supporting this and that faction, successfully pupetizes the place. While western countries don't really agree with it, images of Ethiopians cheering parading Italian soldiers in the capital Addis Abba (like happened OTL), as well as the need to contain communism in the Balkans, mean western governments turn a blind eye to the whole thing.

As a bonus, have the Greek communists win on the mainland, with the rest of (monarchist) Greece restricted to only its island possessions and increasingly reliant on Italian military and economic aid.

Other than maybe also an occupation zone in post-war germany, i think this as the most you're going to realistically get, and even this is stretching it.


italy.png

italy.png
 
It depends on what you're asking: If it's "How big can Italy proper get", not that much bigger. They could declare war on Germany close to the end of the war and get a little of Southern Austria if they're lucky. As for the Italian empire, i'm not 100% sure, but there's likely some way they could get Djibouti.

It's not impossible that with some substantial improvements to the military they could use the distraction of WW2 to get Yugoslavia, Greece if they're lucky. I can't imagine them getting a whole lot further than that.
 
We can begin with the immediate acceptance of the Laval proposal, yes now Italy as only a part of Ethiopia but this are the economic better part and with time can make Abyssinia a proper protectorate, this can make Italy and Germany not so buddy buddy so when it's time Benny decide to ear what all the other people say to him and stay neutral...at least for a litttle longer and see how thing develop, meantime he take what the Allies offer (Djibuti, the Azouzu strip, some trade rights in Tunisia for France and some discount regarding merchant traffic for Suez and cultural right for italians in Malta for UK...maybe if Benny is a good negotiatior he can convince Churchill to sell him Somaliland).
Yugoslavia is a little harder, well it was a step of italian foreign policy to aquire influence in the Balkans so Mussolini supported Croatian separatist in hope to break up the neighbouring nation. The trick is make Germany care more for italian neutrality than to what get from Yugoslavia, probably the fascist promise that delivery of goods and passage of German troops will be imparied and German economic interest preserved; in this case Hitler can think to not give a damn about the situation, after all Italy is a good trade patner. On the side of the allies, they will not like the situation but first declaring war on Italy for Yugoslavia is not an option, they had other things to do and frankly their hands are full so get on Germany side Italy is not on their agenda. Military speaking, the war will not be a walkover as the German attack, but Italy as now the possibility of concentrate all is effort on one single target, plus some more time for modernizing the armed forces, there is the strong possibility that Hungary and Bulgaria will join the fray to get more territories and the yugoslavian armed forces are equipped with obsolete material and etnically divided. The afterwar division will be basically as OTL, with something given to Germany as bribe and Croatia as a italian puppet, Montengro will be like Albania...in personal union with Italy.
This if the anti-axis coup is not implemented, if things go as OTL (still a possibility but much less without Italy attack on Greece), Adolf can attack himself Yugoslavia...in this case Italy can join or be given some territories as bribe by Germany.
Mussolini will probably declare war on Germany when it will be safe to do...and to block Soviets troops to get near the italian border, so he will probably get some territories in Austria and Slovenia.
Greece can be 'persuaded' go give some concession (basin right, maybe even some adjustment of the border but not too much and frankly Athens is too much on the British sphere of influence so Mussolini can't go too far)
 
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