AHC: have the Southern Ming survive ala thr Southern Song

[The Undead Martyr]

After the fall of Beijing the Shun "dynasty" and the Manchiriam invasion, the Ming remnants fled South to a brief rump state.

This is quite notably in contrast to the Song Dynasty, which persisted after the fall of their northern capital for a full century. Of course, the 17th century is quite different; climate changes, globalization, the Imjin War, and political instability all cut the legs out from under China. But would it have been possible for the Ming to survive in the south?

 

[Sarthak]

That is a very hard ask. The Manchus co-opting the Chinese by calling themselves 'sino-manchu' in comparison to the Jin and Yuan who openly considered themselves foreigner, alongside the ridiculously cartoonishly corrupt Ming court, everyone was basically defecting the first chance they got.

 

[Avrorrange]

That is a very hard ask. The Manchus co-opting the Chinese by calling themselves 'sino-manchu' in comparison to the Jin and Yuan who openly considered themselves foreigner, alongside the ridiculously cartoonishly corrupt Ming court, everyone was basically defecting the first chance they got.

It’s actually the same deal.A lot of the traitors ended up falling out with the Manchus one way or another,especially after the order to change hairstyle was issued, and defected back to Ming.

Ming counter-attack has been done to death in the Chinese alt-history community. What you need is for local forces to stop setting up their own emperor and coordinate their attacks. There were multiple opportunities that were lost including Zhang Chenggong refusing to support Li Dingguo’s forces to retake Guangdong, and the Viceroy of Huguang trying to cement his own power over loyalist and former Shun forces instead of trying to coordinate them to free the Longwu Emperor from Zheng Zhilong’s control.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

The problem seems to be fundamentally the confluence of political incompetence with ecological and environmental catastrophes... really the political problems trump everything else TBH.

 

[Vinization]

What about having Koxinga's 1659 attack against Nanjing succeed? There was a TL with this very premise called Perpetual Brightness IIRC, but it sadly died a long time ago.

 

[Avrorrange]

What about having Koxinga's 1659 attack against Nanjing succeed? There was a TL with this very premise called Perpetual Brightness IIRC, but it sadly died a long time ago.

It could do, but the Chinese althistory community has also raised a point about what happens next after taking Nanjing, and whether Zheng Chenggong‘s forces could hold it against a Qing counterattack. The whole plan relied heavily on Han forces under the Qing defecting after the capture of Nanjing.It’s often suggested that Zheng Chenggong should have used the force to support the attack on Guangdong by the former Xi army under Li Dingguo instead so that all of the remaining Ming forces could link up and support each other. The plan fell apart because of factionalism(Zheng Chenggong supported the Longwu faction while Li Dingguo supported the Yongli Emperor), and distrust of former Xi forces.It is generally believed that if the Nanjing operation was successful, Zheng Chenggong would disavow his loyalty to Yongli and support one of Longwu’s brothers or nephews instead.

 

[Vinization]

Could it be plausible for the Shun to defeat the Qing at the Battle of Shanhai Pass, but not do so decisively? That way they could keep at each other's throats while the Ming remnant recuperates in Nanjing. Also, was there any way Wu Sangui and his soldiers could've fled to the south before Beijing fell?

 

[The Undead Martyr]

A Shun victory at the Battle of Shanhai Pass might well be possible, in theory, but the Qing were militarily potent and quite aggressive; there's a reason that they were one of China's most expansionist dynasties.

 

[Vinization]

A Shun victory at the Battle of Shanhai Pass might well be possible, in theory, but the Qing were militarily potent and quite aggressive; there's a reason that they were one of China's most expansionist dynasties.

The battle's outcome was decided by Wu Sangui, had he sided with the Shun they'd probably have won.

 

[Avrorrange]

Could it be plausible for the Shun to defeat the Qing at the Battle of Shanhai Pass, but not do so decisively?

That way they could keep at each other's throats while the Ming remnant recuperates in Nanjing. Also, was there any way Wu Sangui and his soldiers could've fled to the south before Beijing fell?

In order for such a pod to occur, Chongzheng needs to evacuate the north well before when he tried to do.This is because most of the soldiers’ properties and families are located around the Shanhai Pass region.The soldiers are not gonna abandon their families and properties in an impromptu evacuation.A lot of these guys are landowners.You also need a sufficiently powerful incentive.The solution offered by the Chinese althistory community for that is quite simple.Just screw Zhu Yuanzhang’s rules about emperors needing to marry peasants and get the crown prince to marry one of Wu Sangui’s relatives instead.

 

[Vinization]

In order for such a pod to occur, Chongzheng needs to evacuate the north well before when he tried to do.This is because most of the soldiers’ properties and families are located around the Shanhai Pass region.The soldiers are not gonna abandon their families and properties in an impromptu evacuation.A lot of these guys are landowners.You also need a sufficiently powerful incentive.The solution offered by the Chinese althistory community for that is quite simple.Just screw Zhu Yuanzhang’s rules about emperors needing to marry peasants and get the crown prince to marry one of Wu Sangui’s relatives instead.

I dug up an old thread discussing the possibility of the Chongzheng emperor escaping, and one poster argued for having him stay in Beijing and die while his oldest son/crown prince goes to Nanjing. I suppose this prince would be a better figure for the resistance to rally around, given his very direct link to the previous emperor.