How could a scenario occur where Canada ends up joining the American Revolution while the South stays neutral/loyalist? Perhaps the colonies have a schism over regional issues like slavery (not sure how plausible that is at the time of the revolution) or the British try to repress the French Canadians instead of accommodating them, causing the Francos to align with the rebels in some form.
AHC: Have Canada and the South switch places
- Thread starter DPKdebator
- Start date
It would require the British to make the same mistake they made in Canada that they made in New England, putting a governor in charge with authoritative tendencies and no empathy for the colonists.
For the South it would take some governors with a little more political savvy who would vow to "protect slavery"
For the South it would take some governors with a little more political savvy who would vow to "protect slavery"
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https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-southern-america-updated-july-1-2018.149643/
Georgia was reconquered in OTL.
Prehapse have something like a British tripartite south made out of expanded western land claims leading to a expanded Virginia (orange) a united carolinas (pink and brown) and expanded georga (tan)
en.m.wikipedia.org
Southern Colonies - Wikipedia
Start with having the 1775-76 American invasion of Canada succeed. They also tried for Nova Scotia, which you don't hear about since the raids were complete disasters for the Americans.
After hearing about the fall of Quebec, Germain cuts his losses in Canada and sends the reinforcements that IOTL went to Quebec to take the southern colonies as well. With the reinforcements, the British commander interprets his orders as "open a second major front in the South" instead of "take a port and assist the local loyalists who have the situation well in hand". Germain never wrote clear orders, but with the additional forces, Clinton could have this idea, or if necessary you could replace Clinton with a more aggressive general like Burgoyne, who also would probably work better with the Royal Navy. The British fail to take Charleston as IOTL, but since they are supposed to fight a major campaign, they just try again with another port elsewhere, succeed, and go on from there.
This will start having butterflies in the North. The forces sent to take Charleston under Clinton won't join Howe. This probably means either the attempt to take New Jersey or the attempt to take Newport is scratched, and because the Royal Navy wants Newport, it will probably be the forward garrisons in New Jersey, so no Trenton. Charles Lee likely doesn't get captured. Obviously there is no Saratoga campaign either. This helps the British because the two OTL American victories that raised their morale and impressed European rivals to Britain such as France don't happen.
The British did not send many reinforcements to their forces in North America after 1776, though they did succeed in raising some loyalist regiments, which would raised in the South. With somewhat fewer troops to work with, its not clear if Howe even attempts to take Philadelphia. Of course, IOTL this didn't accomplish much beyond removing his army from the scene for two months while he took the long route. He either does nothing in the north except raiding like Clinton did in 1778 (but Clinton actually had troops withdrawn from his command, and he go south and capture Charleston on the second attempt), or takes Philadelphia and stops there. The southern forces are able to restore colonial government in at least Georgia, which they did in fact do IOTL, and South Carolina. In this situation, they have a good chance at North Carolina as well and a weak chance with Virginia.
With no Anglo-French War, there is no need to evacuate Philadelphia and Newport and send the troops to the Caribbean. The Americans actually listen to Carlisle when he arrives and attempts to negotiate. With Canada, or at least Quebec, already lost, someone prevents Germain from sabotaging the mission, plus Howe is still in command of the army and really wants the negotiations to succeed. The British agree to recognize American independence, and evacuate New York, Philadelphia, and Newport, but keep the southern colonies that they have recovered. Without Canada, they are handing over the Great Lakes region to the Americans, but they will keep what is now Alabama and Mississippi, and Tennessee if they hold on to North Carolina, which I think is likely, plus Kentucky if they somehow manage to retake Virginia.
Of note ITTL that planter influence on the new American government is much lower without South Carolina, despite Maryland and probably Virginia still becoming states. But the new nation will have somewhat more Catholics and be less "English" (Dutch in NY and Germans in PA as IOTL, but also French in Quebec).
This is a side note, but in response to an earlier comment above, the Governor of Massachusetts in 1775, Thomas Gage, was pro-American and married to an American wife, who was suspected of spying for the Patriots. He must be confusing Gage with a seventeenth century Governor. The colonial Governors of Connecticut and Rhode Island were Americans, elected by voters in those states. However, there are lots of PODs that can get the Americans into Quebec.
After hearing about the fall of Quebec, Germain cuts his losses in Canada and sends the reinforcements that IOTL went to Quebec to take the southern colonies as well. With the reinforcements, the British commander interprets his orders as "open a second major front in the South" instead of "take a port and assist the local loyalists who have the situation well in hand". Germain never wrote clear orders, but with the additional forces, Clinton could have this idea, or if necessary you could replace Clinton with a more aggressive general like Burgoyne, who also would probably work better with the Royal Navy. The British fail to take Charleston as IOTL, but since they are supposed to fight a major campaign, they just try again with another port elsewhere, succeed, and go on from there.
This will start having butterflies in the North. The forces sent to take Charleston under Clinton won't join Howe. This probably means either the attempt to take New Jersey or the attempt to take Newport is scratched, and because the Royal Navy wants Newport, it will probably be the forward garrisons in New Jersey, so no Trenton. Charles Lee likely doesn't get captured. Obviously there is no Saratoga campaign either. This helps the British because the two OTL American victories that raised their morale and impressed European rivals to Britain such as France don't happen.
The British did not send many reinforcements to their forces in North America after 1776, though they did succeed in raising some loyalist regiments, which would raised in the South. With somewhat fewer troops to work with, its not clear if Howe even attempts to take Philadelphia. Of course, IOTL this didn't accomplish much beyond removing his army from the scene for two months while he took the long route. He either does nothing in the north except raiding like Clinton did in 1778 (but Clinton actually had troops withdrawn from his command, and he go south and capture Charleston on the second attempt), or takes Philadelphia and stops there. The southern forces are able to restore colonial government in at least Georgia, which they did in fact do IOTL, and South Carolina. In this situation, they have a good chance at North Carolina as well and a weak chance with Virginia.
With no Anglo-French War, there is no need to evacuate Philadelphia and Newport and send the troops to the Caribbean. The Americans actually listen to Carlisle when he arrives and attempts to negotiate. With Canada, or at least Quebec, already lost, someone prevents Germain from sabotaging the mission, plus Howe is still in command of the army and really wants the negotiations to succeed. The British agree to recognize American independence, and evacuate New York, Philadelphia, and Newport, but keep the southern colonies that they have recovered. Without Canada, they are handing over the Great Lakes region to the Americans, but they will keep what is now Alabama and Mississippi, and Tennessee if they hold on to North Carolina, which I think is likely, plus Kentucky if they somehow manage to retake Virginia.
Of note ITTL that planter influence on the new American government is much lower without South Carolina, despite Maryland and probably Virginia still becoming states. But the new nation will have somewhat more Catholics and be less "English" (Dutch in NY and Germans in PA as IOTL, but also French in Quebec).
This is a side note, but in response to an earlier comment above, the Governor of Massachusetts in 1775, Thomas Gage, was pro-American and married to an American wife, who was suspected of spying for the Patriots. He must be confusing Gage with a seventeenth century Governor. The colonial Governors of Connecticut and Rhode Island were Americans, elected by voters in those states. However, there are lots of PODs that can get the Americans into Quebec.