AHC: Germany goes west instead of east in 1939
- Thread starter Snaut
- Start date
If Germany attacks France, it's perfectly possible that Poland doesn't get involved.
That said, I think a German attack on France is unlikely as an opening move, unless the Germans have already gained some confidence that the blitzkrieg tactic is effective (by crushing some minor power using it).
The only constraint for this challenge is that the Anglo/French-Polish relations in 1939 need to be pretty much the same as in OTL before the outbreak of war.
Originally posted by SunilTanna
I disagree. Poland would have got involved. Their logic would have been simple - our best ally is France; without France we are pretty much alone against USSR and/or Germany; if France goes down, so do we; since Germans are focused on France we can hit them in the back, to help our ally at relatively little cost; if we do nothing and France fails - we go down; if we do nothing and France wins - the French are angry with us for not keeping our part of the alliance; if we attack and fail - well, at least we tried; if we attack and win - so the better.
In short - it is in Poland's interest to help Polish allies attacked by the common enemy, since if they go down, Poland is next to be invaded and is all alone.
Now, how effective Polish actions would have been, that is completely different question. IMHO the best choice for the Poles would have been to attack Silesia, perhaps also East Prussia.
Silesia - an important industrial region with significant Polish population which might become useful; taking Silesia might do some real damage to German war effort (not that much, but still). There are some fortifications, but no too many, at least not in Upper Silesia.
East Prussia - also some Polish (or at least Polish speaking) population and the region is like a dagger hanging over Warsaw; problem is the region is quite well fortified (even if the fortifications are a little old) and relatively easy to defend thanks to many rivers and lakes.
The march straight onto Berlin might be considered a little too dangerous - Poles would have had to deal with exposed wings and some significant fortifications in the way (Ostwall). OTOH, that migth seriously force Germans to withdrew some forces from the west and help the western allies.
Polish abilities: 30 infantry divisions, 9-10 reserve infantry divisions, 11 cavalry brigades, 2 motorized brigades (1 not fully operational), relatively weak artillery, rather weak air force with obsolete fighters and some decent bombers. Also ~ 80 batalions of Obrona Narodowa (National Defence) - something similar to British Home Guard, although some batalions were almost as strong as regular army units. ON might be useful for protecting communication lines and acting as occupying units. Polish Navy was very weak comparing to Kriegsmarine so it wasn't able to act offensively.
Personally I would use most of the regular units (20 divisions, most of the cavalry and artillery) to attack Silesia; 5 regular divisions and some cavalry would act as reserve; 2 regular and 4 reserve divisions might try knocking at East Prussian front; the rest covers the rest of the border with ON acting also as human reserve for front troops.
Of course a lot depends of the forces Germans have left to protect their eastern border, but considering that they go against one of the most powerful armies in the world (i.e. the French Army) they need to hit the west as strong as they can. So there isn't much left to keep Poland in check.
I think Polish Army might achieve some success in Silesia, probably occupying the Upper Silesia, possibly also reaching Breslau (today Wrocław). East Prussia might be harder to crush but it can be somewhat neutralized. However, even the logistics might not allow the Poles to go much further - AFAIR Polish ammunition supplies and all other strategic materials reserves were relatively small; allied supplies via Romania might help, but not too much.
And there is also a tiny detail called the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics...
I disagree. Poland would have got involved. Their logic would have been simple - our best ally is France; without France we are pretty much alone against USSR and/or Germany; if France goes down, so do we; since Germans are focused on France we can hit them in the back, to help our ally at relatively little cost; if we do nothing and France fails - we go down; if we do nothing and France wins - the French are angry with us for not keeping our part of the alliance; if we attack and fail - well, at least we tried; if we attack and win - so the better.
In short - it is in Poland's interest to help Polish allies attacked by the common enemy, since if they go down, Poland is next to be invaded and is all alone.
Now, how effective Polish actions would have been, that is completely different question. IMHO the best choice for the Poles would have been to attack Silesia, perhaps also East Prussia.
Silesia - an important industrial region with significant Polish population which might become useful; taking Silesia might do some real damage to German war effort (not that much, but still). There are some fortifications, but no too many, at least not in Upper Silesia.
East Prussia - also some Polish (or at least Polish speaking) population and the region is like a dagger hanging over Warsaw; problem is the region is quite well fortified (even if the fortifications are a little old) and relatively easy to defend thanks to many rivers and lakes.
The march straight onto Berlin might be considered a little too dangerous - Poles would have had to deal with exposed wings and some significant fortifications in the way (Ostwall). OTOH, that migth seriously force Germans to withdrew some forces from the west and help the western allies.
Polish abilities: 30 infantry divisions, 9-10 reserve infantry divisions, 11 cavalry brigades, 2 motorized brigades (1 not fully operational), relatively weak artillery, rather weak air force with obsolete fighters and some decent bombers. Also ~ 80 batalions of Obrona Narodowa (National Defence) - something similar to British Home Guard, although some batalions were almost as strong as regular army units. ON might be useful for protecting communication lines and acting as occupying units. Polish Navy was very weak comparing to Kriegsmarine so it wasn't able to act offensively.
Personally I would use most of the regular units (20 divisions, most of the cavalry and artillery) to attack Silesia; 5 regular divisions and some cavalry would act as reserve; 2 regular and 4 reserve divisions might try knocking at East Prussian front; the rest covers the rest of the border with ON acting also as human reserve for front troops.
Of course a lot depends of the forces Germans have left to protect their eastern border, but considering that they go against one of the most powerful armies in the world (i.e. the French Army) they need to hit the west as strong as they can. So there isn't much left to keep Poland in check.
I think Polish Army might achieve some success in Silesia, probably occupying the Upper Silesia, possibly also reaching Breslau (today Wrocław). East Prussia might be harder to crush but it can be somewhat neutralized. However, even the logistics might not allow the Poles to go much further - AFAIR Polish ammunition supplies and all other strategic materials reserves were relatively small; allied supplies via Romania might help, but not too much.
And there is also a tiny detail called the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics...
Very bad German move. The Soviet-German pact is conditional on an attack on Poland, so it won't be signed.
Poland might get involved, so German forces have to cover that front.
The German forces avaiable for the attack, nowhere near their 1940 level of strengh/readiness, will not beat France, and in 1940 Germany would probably be on the defensive in a two front war.
Poland might get involved, so German forces have to cover that front.
The German forces avaiable for the attack, nowhere near their 1940 level of strengh/readiness, will not beat France, and in 1940 Germany would probably be on the defensive in a two front war.
If Hitler does not invade Poland, Germany will not be at war with France & Britain in September 1939. A state of war emerged between France&England and Germany because of the invasion of Poland.
So, we need a POD to make Hitler decide to invade Benelux & France in 1939... I don't see any plausible POD for that. Hitler did not actually want war with Britain & France in 1939. Lebensraum is not in the West.
I can only see Hitler attacking in the West, if either:
a) Germany was seriously provoked by a western neighbor
b) an excellent opportunity arose (for example political instability / communist uprising / civil war in France or something like that...)
c) France&Britain decide to declare war on Germany out of the blue (highly unlikely)
So, we need a POD to make Hitler decide to invade Benelux & France in 1939... I don't see any plausible POD for that. Hitler did not actually want war with Britain & France in 1939. Lebensraum is not in the West.
I can only see Hitler attacking in the West, if either:
a) Germany was seriously provoked by a western neighbor
b) an excellent opportunity arose (for example political instability / communist uprising / civil war in France or something like that...)
c) France&Britain decide to declare war on Germany out of the blue (highly unlikely)
Although Lebensraum is not in the west, I do seem to recall Hitler desiring a revenge for the Treaty of Versaille. So, while he may not have wanted war with the West in 39, I think he was going after France at some point. Plus, having France at your back, even if neutral, is a dangerous situation if you plan to invade USSR. Much better to dispose of the threat first.
Not necessarily by military means. By 1939 there were very few red lines to cross, and if France didn't go to war over Poland which was an ally, why would she go to war to aid the USSR? If Poland is removed without an all out war, there is really no reason for France and the UK to get involved in a war between two dictatorships that will probably weaken them both.
In fact, the original German (OKW) plan was to first bring Poland into the German camp, then invade the USSR. If the Germans had somehow managed to manoeuvre the Poles into a situation where they would trade some territorial concessions for common cause against a perceived Red scare it would be the best possible solution for Germany to go to war with the soviets.
So you want to launch a Barbarossa like invasion while your other historic enemy is re-arming itself and maintains a border a short distance from your primary industrial region. Gutsy.
Let's play this out from France's POV. If Germany attacks the USSR, they might bludgeon each other to the point of self destruction. That's my best case scenario.
Worst case is Germany utterly destroys the Soviet Army and the communist government collapses. Now the Nazi war machine has the Caucaus oil fields, well protected Romanian oil fields, agriculture from from the Ukraine, and presumably a program to rapidly reindustrialize the now German occupied areas west of the Urals. Given I barely beat the Germans in 1918 without all these additional liabilities, as France, am I likely to hang on the sidelines in hopes of a stalemate? Maybe.
Or they might take advantage of Nazi forces heading toward Moscow and attack. And since the Germans know they might do this, they have to maintain a sizable force on German/French border because while the Rhine is formidable, it is not nearly as much as the English Channel. Which means their offensive east will be much less powerful and much less likely to succeed.
I have no idea what they actually would have done. But attacking the Soviet Union without having pacified France seems like folly to me.
Generaloberst
Banned
Would require a different outlook on Hitler's part. The Westfeldzug (the invasions of the Low Countries, Denmark, Norway, and France) were nothing more than means to the end, which was Lebensraum im Osten.
Germany invading the Soviet Union in collusion with Poland in 1939 is likely to end in disaster. Firstly it won't have the animals, prime movers, trucks, etc it looted from its campaigns, which were critical to creating a large army of generally good quality divisions (The 1940 German army had only a core of quality divisions, the rest being second class). The German army would also lack the massive increase in manpower (A million more men and a hundred more divisions) and artillery (Enough to expand existing divisions and equip new ones) that it had from 1940-41. Germany will also lack the structure of alliances it had in 1941 which allowed it to secure resources and manpower from the Balkans/Finland.
In regards to the Red Army, while it has the usual disadvantages, several factors actually help it. Firstly the enemy is attacking exactly according to plan; Soviet defensive planning in the 1930s was based on the expectation of a German-Polish invasion, possibly in collusion with Romania and the Baltic States. Thus, unlike IOTL, Soviet defensive planning will have almost a decade of preparation and infrastructure behind it. Further, unlike IOTL the Red Army won't be deployed unprepared and under-equipped in the border districts without any kind of cohesion. Indeed, a German-Polish alliance would provoke immediate Soviet preparations for a war.
Essentially, 1941 was Germany's best chance to knock out the Soviet Union (Though I don't believe it ever had a chance then either). In all other scenarios it's too weak and the Red Army's is too strong.
In regards to the Red Army, while it has the usual disadvantages, several factors actually help it. Firstly the enemy is attacking exactly according to plan; Soviet defensive planning in the 1930s was based on the expectation of a German-Polish invasion, possibly in collusion with Romania and the Baltic States. Thus, unlike IOTL, Soviet defensive planning will have almost a decade of preparation and infrastructure behind it. Further, unlike IOTL the Red Army won't be deployed unprepared and under-equipped in the border districts without any kind of cohesion. Indeed, a German-Polish alliance would provoke immediate Soviet preparations for a war.
Essentially, 1941 was Germany's best chance to knock out the Soviet Union (Though I don't believe it ever had a chance then either). In all other scenarios it's too weak and the Red Army's is too strong.