AHC: Ethiopian conquest of Sudan

[The Undead Martyr]

I've long been fascinated by East African Christianity- the Kingdoms of Alodia and Makuria- and absent Ottoman power I wonder whether it would be possible for the Ethiopian Empire to expand north into modern-day Sudan. Arabic and Egyptian influence led to Arabization of groups like the Beja, and the Christian Nubian Kingdoms were eventually conquered- but it seems not implausible to me that Ethiopia might have turned north and expanded into that vacuum instead. The biggest challenge was that Ethiopia was facing continued rivalry with the Adal Sultanate of Somalia; beyond this, they were weakened by the Oromo migrations and faced a threat from the Ottomans from the north. In a world without the Ottomans but with European (Portuguese or otherwise) exploration, perhaps Ethiopia might be able to fend off the Somalis long enough to turn north in the 16th century- does this seem plausible?

 

[Johnharry]

It is definitely possible, but several issues need to be avoided,

I would say good requirements;

- A fixed court/capital much earlier.

- More long tern adaption of gunpowder introduced by Portugal.

- Avoid the “era of princes.” It basically was a third faction besides Adal/Oromo that long term stunted Ethiopia’s growth.

Do note Sudan Islamization process already began and will still happen, though demographically it will be different. If Ethiopia really plays 4D chess Christianize the Oromo and use them to heavily subdue Sudan and settle it to an extent. Which is very possible and OTL Oromo tribal invasions did a great job at assimilating local identities.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

Diverting the Oromo north was something I'd considered- long-term, the Oromo migrations were both a cause and symptom of Ethiopia's problems, since the Adal-Ethiopia war strikes me as not dissimilar to the Sassanid-Byzantine war in that it crippled both states and enabled the Oromo to pick up the pieces. The Oromo migrating somewhere else (where- Herar? Sennar?) and converting is a possibility, certainly. There were some European contacts earlier than the Portuguese; long-term, the introduction of gunpowder would probably help.