The frontrunner for the 1940 GOP presidential nomination was Thomas Dewey, but he was upset at the convention by dark horse Wendell Willkie. What if Dewey had won the nomination and gone on to face Roosevelt in November? Does Dewey do any better than Willkie? At the time Dewey was an isolationist, what would be the impact of a race between a Republican isolationist and a Democratic internationalist? If he loses, does Dewey run again in 1944 or 1948?
AHC: Dewey vs Roosevelt in 1940
- Thread starter Amadeus
- Start date
Probably much the same as the historic result really. In 1940 memories of the Depression were still too raw and FDR's personal popularity too strong to impact the vote. Even many isolationists seem to have believed (or persuaded themselves they believed) FDR would keep the US out of the war.
I think 1944 was the only somewhat plausible time FDR might have been defeated at the polls, and even then only if he suffered some sort of obvious public health scare during the campaign - visibly losing consciousness or something like that.
I think 1944 was the only somewhat plausible time FDR might have been defeated at the polls, and even then only if he suffered some sort of obvious public health scare during the campaign - visibly losing consciousness or something like that.
If he loses in 1940, I imagine that Dewey's loss would be blamed on his youth and inexperience. Perhaps he'll run for Governor of New York in 1942 (as in OTL after losing to Willkie) but sits out 1944 in favor of 1948. If he loses again in 1944 (quite likely) then someone else is nominated against Truman in 1948. If Dewey doesn't run in 1944, then who might the GOP nominate instead?
I think FDR would defeat Dewey fairly easily. Remember that whatever their reservations about Willkie, most anti-interventionist leaders (including John L. Lewis) did vote for him. The Willkie forces even took out advertising space in the Daily Worker (the Communists of course then being opposed to the "imperialist war")! https://books.google.com/books?id=iWMprgS8q0AC&pg=PA269 So I doubt that Dewey could get a larger anti-war vote than Willkie, whereas some Republican and independent internationalists who supported Willkie might well refuse to vote for Dewey.
In any event, it was not so much Dewey's isolationism (or "anti-interventionism") that made him lose his front-runner status after the fall of France--after all, Taft and Vandenberg still had considerable support. Rather, it was the feeling that someone as young and inexperienced as Dewey could not be trusted to deal with the dangerous world situation. As someone joked, Dewey had become the first American casualty of World War II...
In any event, it was not so much Dewey's isolationism (or "anti-interventionism") that made him lose his front-runner status after the fall of France--after all, Taft and Vandenberg still had considerable support. Rather, it was the feeling that someone as young and inexperienced as Dewey could not be trusted to deal with the dangerous world situation. As someone joked, Dewey had become the first American casualty of World War II...
I pretty much agree. Do you think Dewey would be able to make a comeback later down the line? Or would his career be over after a major defeat so early in life? (He'd be only 38 on election day).