Basically what the title says, how divided up can China be without going into ASB territory and more importantly HOW can it happen.
AHC: China as divided up as possible after WWII
- Thread starter spunkychariot
- Start date
But why? Maybe there's something I'm missing, and that's very likely, but I don't understand why China would be divided up after WWII.
Germany was occupied and divided up because it was on the losing side. Unless China had been fighting for the Axis, or unless the Axis won and partitioned the Allied countries, I don't see the point. Additionally, China was fighting against Japan just like the US were, so it would be seen as extremely rude if the Allies decided to carve it up for no apparent reason.
The only other way I can think of would be with the Kuomintang and the Communist Party getting something like half of China each in the Civil War, but then it's not really as divided up as possible, the only difference is that the Kuomintang gets more than just Taiwan. The only other way I can think of is if there are other factions emerging, probably on a regional level, and so each faction and its local supporters get a chunk of China in the end.
Germany was occupied and divided up because it was on the losing side. Unless China had been fighting for the Axis, or unless the Axis won and partitioned the Allied countries, I don't see the point. Additionally, China was fighting against Japan just like the US were, so it would be seen as extremely rude if the Allies decided to carve it up for no apparent reason.
The only other way I can think of would be with the Kuomintang and the Communist Party getting something like half of China each in the Civil War, but then it's not really as divided up as possible, the only difference is that the Kuomintang gets more than just Taiwan. The only other way I can think of is if there are other factions emerging, probably on a regional level, and so each faction and its local supporters get a chunk of China in the end.
Asami
Banned
During the events of the 1920's, 1930's and 1940's, much of China was under the rule of warlords.
During China Civil-war the USA intervene diplomatic,
they almost manage get a truce and two areas of influence:
-North Communist China under Mao troops
-South Kuomintang China under Chiang Kai-shek troops
Sadly Chiang Kai-shek believed to win this Civil-war and launch his troops in final assault…
… in the end he and last fellow combatant escaped to Taiwan.
had Chiang Kai-shek not be so foolish, we could have very different two Chinas as in OTL.
I know this, please see my post where I said a) I assumed the OP was asking about a scenario where China was divided up by foreign countries and b) that the only feasible way China could have been divided up after WWII was through regional factions and such.
I assumed the OP was initially asking about foreign countries carving up China, but I also said this in the very post you quoted:
Really, China is astonishingly homogenous for it's size. It's at the very, very most:
- Uyghurstan (Xinjiang)
- Tibet
- Manchuria/Manchukuo
- Taiwan
- and maybe Inner Mongolia.
- The only other Ethnic division that I know of is the Yi people, but they didn't ever have any state.
But China could be more divided if Japan was victorious and managed to create the GEACPS...
EDIT: What about a Sovieto-Chinese War? Who would win this, and could we have the US as neutral? And if the USSR wins, could that lead to even more Balkanisation of China?
- Uyghurstan (Xinjiang)
- Tibet
- Manchuria/Manchukuo
- Taiwan
- and maybe Inner Mongolia.
- The only other Ethnic division that I know of is the Yi people, but they didn't ever have any state.
But China could be more divided if Japan was victorious and managed to create the GEACPS...
EDIT: What about a Sovieto-Chinese War? Who would win this, and could we have the US as neutral? And if the USSR wins, could that lead to even more Balkanisation of China?
The exact opposite. All throughout Chiang's tenure he was eliminating the warlords and consolidating power. He only tolerated the warlords while he was building up strength. He never devolved power or created new ones. Even during WWII when his power was at its ebb, he managed to eliminate Shen Shicai and Long Yun and coopt the Guangxi Clique.
Only a few warlords really remained at the end, unfortunately Mao was one of them.
However, a scenario where Chiang was greatly weakened might see more warlords survive, but not new ones created.
I agree this is the most likely scenario.
We'd need Chiang to not challenge Mao in Manchuria while implementing needed economic and military reforms to stabilize a KMT state,
We'd need Shen Shicai to be a better political player; perhaps not defecting from Stalin during the Battle of Stalingrad so that Moscow still supports his quasi-independence.
Tibet is already de facto independent, and could continue with KMT China still stymied.
For Taiwan, we'd probably need some sort of American protectorate with the intent on holding a plebiscite to determine union with China or independence. But this is the hardest as it would require relations between China and the USA to be much worse than IOTL.
By the time of WWII the Han were the majority in Manchuria, with the region being home to 20 million Han in 1945.