Your challenge is to work with these parameters:
- France and Germany must peace in 1917, no major changes
- Italy must be winning the Austrian campaign until Austria drives them back
- The Ottomans are defeated as normal
- Austria must surrender Bosnia and Croatia
- Russia loses in 1918
- No USA
Good Luck
Thats no "Central win" scenario.
But I try to meet your criteria.
The first and last points can be met by:
Better diplomaty and better intelligence on the German side
Germany acts a bit more sensibly and american losses on British shipping are greatly reduced (no Lusitania and similar things). Germany never implements Unretsticted submarine warfare. Instead there is a constant lobbying in the USA for "lifting the blockade" like We have gold, but can't buy from you because of those British B...ards. Look at all those starving German babies. Of course no Zimmitman telegram. Not enough to make the US acting, but enough to keep the public more inclined to feel some sympathies (mre) for Germany.
So we get no US DOW in 1917. Military nothing has changed so far.
This time the "mutinies" in the French army are worse (maybe the French are much more hard in supressing them - maybe because the US is still out). Germany notices them and sucessfully breaches the French lines. More is won against the French than lost against the Brits.
Germany offers a white peace to France (aided by clever placed newspaper articles leaking into France - Swiss, Spanish, US papers). A few villages on the french German borders are ceded to France (make an emotional speech about how the emperor found out that those were French and not Alsatian and in 1871 by mistake added to the German aquisitions
). So France saves face and can say it won because it got what was rightfully french (neglecting the fact moost was kept by Germany). Germany instead annexes Luxemburg and Parts of Belgium is merged with Luxemburg.
The BEF withdraws.
The Kerensky government welcomes the freed up British troops on the eastern front. - so the Red revolution is aborted and Russia fighte into 1918. This alos means that the Turks are under more pressure than OTL.
Austria and Italy - no de facto drop out of Russian enables the Italians to perform better at the 10th and 11th battles of the Isonzo. The situation on the Eastern Front prevents Austria (Germany) to pull off Caporetto.
Lets assume the Italians make it to Trieste but are stopped in late 1917. Slowly the French separate peace makes it difficult for Italy. Austria and Bulgaria manage to reach Salonika and kick Greece out of the war - if it entered ITTL.
Late spring 1918 teh Germans launch Operation Baltic and attack in the North breaking through and conquer Leningrad. Austria launces also the spring offensive against Italy and (with german help) Pulls off TTLs Caporetto. This TL Italy asks for terms. (I assume Asutria does NOT ask too much - we don't want no more Italians who make trouble)
BY mid 1918 an armistice is in effect.
Germany drops the turks (they establish their own Dolchstosslegende
)
Britain "Gets" Iraq, Palestine and Syria (and Libya) Turkey is reduced to Anatolia (lets assume they get a bit more in the Caucasus)
Poland gets independent under a "Habsburg King" - also getting Galicia and Bukowina.
The Austrian Emperor decides to go "dominion Style" and Keeps Austria proper (including Carniola and Istria with Triest
Dominions:
- Bohemia/Moravia (including Austrian Silesia) (with Special rights for the "German" population.
- Hungary without Croatia - Westungarn to Austria
- Croatia gets Dalmatia and Bosnia. and is merged with Serbia (Southern Serbia to Bulgaria (Croats are the "leading Elite" in this state) and Montenegro.
Karl is King of those three dominions. They are independent, but linked with treaties to Austria (Military and diplomatic obligation to follow Austrias general directives)
Poland is considered an informal dominion as its ruled by the Teschen branch (Karl Stephan).
Albania nominally restored under its German appointed "prince" Wilhelm zu Wied (Austro German Puppet actually). Valona ceded to Austria (also used by the Croat fleet)
Germany gets the "Baltic Duchy" - Finland becomes independent under Friedrich Karl von Hessen.
I don't have a solution for the Colonies, but I think they might be returned to GErmany as Britain gets so much in the Middle East. Germany and Britain might aslo "split" Belgian Congo.
