AHC: Can Yugoslavia be saved?

[Ganesha]

As we all know, the breakup of Yugoslavia was a gigantic mess, resulting in untold death, destruction, and loss of heritage.

Is there any way it could have turned out differently? Would a decentralized Yugoslavia have worked, or even been possible? Could it have transitioned to democracy with the fall of the Soviet Union, or could it have stayed together under an authoritarian or mixed regime?

With a POD after 1970, how do we get a Yugoslavia today that is stable, peaceful, and competently run?

Cheers,
Ganesha

 

[Mr.Progressive]

Keep the Soviet Union going, maybe no coup and the Union Treaty passes

 

[Virginian]

It might need a POD farther back than 1970, but you could have the efforts to enforce a "Yugoslav" identity be more successful. OTL a minority of people did consider themselves Yugoslav as opposed to Bosnian or Croat etc but I believe this was largely limits to residents of mixed/cosmopolitan urban areas.

Part of this could include a mandated "Yugoslav" language used in schools and media ad more effectively replacing Serbian, Bosnian, Montenegrin, and Croatian which are all quite similar. Perhaps drawing inspiration from China's policies on Mandarin.

 

[Morraw]

Keep the Soviet Union going, maybe no coup and the Union Treaty passes

Possible, but highly improbably. Yugoslavia was beginning to buckle under the weight of ethnic tensions and an absolutely miserable government structure throughout the 80's; after all, this was following Tito's death, and to be honest he was the only unifying Yugoslav force that most people could have ever agreed with, and after he was gone, the system he left in place led to the power vacuum that ultimately resulted in the Serbian nationalists taking effective control of government. If he had left a 'stronger' presidency behind (possible led by Petar Stambolić) with a weaker and more decentralized legislative government, it may have lasted a bit longer than it did in OTL, however the ethnic problems will still persist. Basically, Yugoslavia was a ticking time bomb that began counting down after Tito's death, and with no strong, unifying, non-partisan leader, it was bound to collapse in on itself sooner rather than later.

Or you could simply have Tito live to 100.

 

[Yossarian]

I'm thinking the way to go might actually be to have Tito die earlier, so that Yugoslavia can have more time to resolve it's post-Tito political confusion by the time the disruption from the end of the Cold War hits.

 

[New Cleo Genesis]

Give them a victorious war and let them build up some "we did this TOGETHER!" spirit. The only problem, who could they pick a fight with - Albania?

 

[Romanos]

With a PoD after 1970, it's very difficult. As already said, you need a strong uniting force among the many nationalities in the country now that Tito's gone, and that has to be one or more of the following:

A. A stronger Yugoslav identity and/or weaker national identities (Practically, it's very difficult to do such a thing, but a complete overhaul of the education system will certainly be needed).

B. Avoid IMF at all costs. Also, if the country can feed itself it's going to be in a much better economic/financial position.

C. Stronger political leadership but not an authoritarian one. I can only see that happening with further decentralisation in domestic affairs and avoiding a multi-member presidency by instituting a system that will not be deemed to enforce Serbian/Croatian views on Croatians/Serbians.

D. Seek closer ties with Germany once the USSR is dissolved, so that it doesn't desperately want Slovenia and Croatia as independent countries under its sphere of influence. Also, by all means apply for EEC membership as soon as possible.

 

[jycee]

Possible, but highly improbably. Yugoslavia was beginning to buckle under the weight of ethnic tensions and an absolutely miserable government structure throughout the 80's; after all, this was following Tito's death, and to be honest he was the only unifying Yugoslav force that most people could have ever agreed with, and after he was gone, the system he left in place led to the power vacuum that ultimately resulted in the Serbian nationalists taking effective control of government. If he had left a 'stronger' presidency behind (possible led by Petar Stambolić) with a weaker and more decentralized legislative government, it may have lasted a bit longer than it did in OTL, however the ethnic problems will still persist. Basically, Yugoslavia was a ticking time bomb that began counting down after Tito's death, and with no strong, unifying, non-partisan leader, it was bound to collapse in on itself sooner rather than later.

Or you could simply have Tito live to 100.

Nothing here is unsolvable. With enough foresight, Tito (and his government) could have developed the means to avoid the power vacuum upon his death; dictators rarely have this but it is possible. The successor government would have to decentralize the legislative body, basing it in a meritocratic over democratic system, to avoid nationalist of any kind from taking over in majority (best if you can outlaw any form of nationalist political organization).

 

[TheBrunswickian]

After Tito died his centralised Yugoslavia died with him. So either Belgrade manages to keep Yugoslavia centralised or the constituent states (Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia) get effective autonomy and don't feel threatened by Serbian domination if Serbia gives Kosovo the same status as the rest of the Yugoslav Republic. So to save Yugoslavia it must become an effective Yugoslav Confederation

 

[Mr.Progressive]

Give them a victorious war and let them build up some "we did this TOGETHER!" spirit. The only problem, who could they pick a fight with - Albania?

Italy, but the the Italians need to start it. Or NATO steps in

 

[The Mahnovite]

At the very start of Yugoslavia, the capital must not be placed in Belgrade. Skopje, Sarajevo or even Ljubljana work well. Regarding language: either make a mishmash of all the languages- something like South-Slavic version of Slovio constructed language, or just let each Republic speak its own majority language as primary. Minimum or no ethnic repression should exist. Then it might survive. Economically, the people were happy with Communism. Many even today regret the old system dying out.

 

[TheBrunswickian]

Italy, but the the Italians need to start it. Or NATO steps in

At the end of WW2, Tito demands that Trieste become part of the Slovenian sector of Yugoslavia and the Allies agree. Italy, lays claim to Trieste and invades Yugoslavia. NATO sends support but ultimately Italy is defeated and is forced to renounce all claims to Trieste.

 

[Ganesha]

After Tito died his centralised Yugoslavia died with him. So either Belgrade manages to keep Yugoslavia centralised or the constituent states (Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia) get effective autonomy and don't feel threatened by Serbian domination if Serbia gives Kosovo the same status as the rest of the Yugoslav Republic. So to save Yugoslavia it must become an effective Yugoslav Confederation

Who are the leaders who could make this transition effectively? Would it have been possible for them to rise to the top in Tito's system, after he dies?

As for some other responses, the end of the Cold War will be a massive shock to the system, but not as much as some think. After all, Yugoslavia was not particularly economically dependent on the Soviets and certainly not closely controlled like the Warsaw Pact states.

Cheers,
Ganesha

 

[Pachac]

At the very start of Yugoslavia, the capital must not be placed in Belgrade. Skopje, Sarajevo or even Ljubljana work well. Regarding language: either make a mishmash of all the languages- something like South-Slavic version of Slovio constructed language, or just let each Republic speak its own majority language as primary. Minimum or no ethnic repression should exist. Then it might survive. Economically, the people were happy with Communism. Many even today regret the old system dying out.

Sarajevo is an interesting option but how many people would be willing to accept that?

 

[Alternate History Geek]

Part of this could include a mandated "Yugoslav" language used in schools and media ad more effectively replacing Serbian, Bosnian, Montenegrin, and Croatian which are all quite similar. Perhaps drawing inspiration from China's policies on Mandarin.

Not just similar, they're the same friggin' language. The various dialects of Serbo-Croatian are in no way even remotely large enough to justify calling them separate languages, and won't be for at least a few more centuries at the very earliest.