AHC: Best Possible post-Soviet Russia

[ChrisTheCat]

Upon the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has not been doing quite so well. Its people by and large remain fairly poor, the nation remains undemocratic, the economy is puny and sluggish for a nation with such enormous resources, and they struggle to project power diplomatically or militarily. They are a shadow of what they once were, for better or worse.

With a POD anytime after the 26th of December 1991, what can be done to best mitigate these issues? How can Russia become wealthier, freer, and/or more powerful than it is today, and what effects would this have on the world at large?

 

[AT0N]

US Administration actually intrested in Russia? Like, the main objective of the first post-Soviet Russian foreign affairs minister Kozyrev was to convince the US to give Russia a "Second Marshall plan". And, as we know from the history of XX century economic miracles, there were no such without American investment.

So, I would propose Ross Perot victory in 1992 as the main PoD. He was not keen on expanding NATO eastwards, anti-Chinese and wanted to turn Russia into the "Citadel of democracy".

 

[rndbabylon]

^ Yea this. Best way is to have China-Russia relations strained and an American administration that wants to align Russia with the West

Edit 8/7/23: A Russia and America that are not aligned will always mess with each other due to conflicting geopolitical and economic interests. In the Cold War it was always an uphill battle for Russia, but now that the USSR shattered they're always gonna be in the losing end long term if they're not in some way allied to America.

 

[Typho]

They invest enough in the Kamov-60, that at the least would be an improvement. Also arrest the oligarchs

 

[DocJamore]

They can grant Independence to the North Caucasus provinces (that don’t have a Russian majority) as the challenge is how can Russia be better off, not keeping peace in that region.

 

[Analytical Engine]

They can grant Independence to the North Caucasus provinces (that don’t have a Russian majority) as the challenge is how can Russia be better off, not keeping peace in that region.

Chechnya and Ingushetia attempted to become independent as the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria IOTL, which basically triggered the Chechen Wars and a whole lot of nastiness in the Caucasus. I'm not sure how happy the Ingush would be in such a state, though.

Chechen Republic of Ichkeria - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

North Ossetia-Alania would probably want to unify with South Ossetia. This may or may not go down well with Georgia, depending on how that works out, considering Abkhazia.

The problem with Dagestan is that it isn't majority anything. I'm really unsure how stable it would be.

Kabardino-Balkaria is majority Kabardin (a Circassian people), whilst the Balkars are Turkic. I'm not 100% sure how stable it's going to be either. It may or may not split in two, with all that entails.

 

[DocJamore]

Chechnya and Ingushetia attempted to become independent as the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria IOTL, which basically triggered the Chechen Wars and a whole lot of nastiness in the Caucasus. I'm not sure how happy the Ingush would be in such a state, though.

The point I was trying to make is that letting the people of the Caucasus hate each other benefits Russia as they would be occupied with each other and not Russia. Russia does not have to expend money, manpower, and bombing cities combating terrorism. If there is a refugee crisis then those refugees would be loyal to Russia out of their own interests and not it being forced on them.

The problem with Dagestan is that it isn't majority anything. I'm really unsure how stable it would be.

Dagestan can keep Russian as a national language. Many African countries kept their colonizers language for very similar reasons.

 

[Micróbio de Marte]

They can grant Independence to the North Caucasus provinces (that don’t have a Russian majority) as the challenge is how can Russia be better off, not keeping peace in that region.

This opens up a whole can of worms in Siberia and the Ural region. It's better to crush the revolters and negotiate autonomy than to grant independence. Russia already lost too much land, including core regions in Belarus and Ukraine. Some regions in the Caucasus even have oil, so giving them up is unthinkable.

The West won't respect the Russian Federation if they are giving independence for every warlord that set's up his personal militia.

 

[Crueldwarf]

The point I was trying to make is that letting the people of the Caucasus hate each other benefits Russia as they would be occupied with each other and not Russia. Russia does not have to expend money, manpower, and bombing cities combating terrorism. If there is a refugee crisis then those refugees would be loyal to Russia out of their own interests and not it being forced on them.

To tell a personal anecdote about that option: back in the summer of 1994 (few months before the whole thing with sending troops to Chechnya blew up) I was going for a vacation to the Black Sea coast together with my family. On a train.

Train was robbed while on route through Krasnodar region countryside. It was robbed by a Chechen band riding horses Wild West style. It happened during the time when Russia was pretty happy to ignore whatever was happening in Chechnya and to allow Chechens to sort their issues among themselves. The problem was that Chechens weren't much keen on limiting their antics to their home republic. They were quite literally spreading the misery around.

 

[DocJamore]

To tell a personal anecdote about that option: back in the summer of 1994 (few months before the whole thing with sending troops to Chechnya blew up) I was going for a vacation to the Black Sea coast together with my family. On a train.

Train was robbed while on route through Krasnodar region countryside. It was robbed by a Chechen band riding horses Wild West style. It happened during the time when Russia was pretty happy to ignore whatever was happening in Chechnya and to allow Chechens to sort their issues among themselves. The problem was that Chechens weren't much keen on limiting their antics to their home republic. They were quite literally spreading the misery around.

I'll be honest with you. I am clearly younger than you are and to me all this is just history on a alternate history website. So while I do have sympathy for your ordeal and can value your insight when I look at stuff like this,

First Chechen War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Casualties of the Second Chechen War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

and I see at least a hundred thousand people murdered just as an estimate because Russia was determined to keep a region of people who didn't want them there and had very justified grievances to want independence.

Deportation of the Chechens and Ingush - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Wars suck. Civil Wars suck. Every single kind of war is a crime against humanity because all wars are inhumane by their nature. The Chechen conflict directly contributed into the election of Vladimir Putin leading to the *OMITTED DUE TO CURRENT EVENTS* and has overall be pretty terrible for Russia. So I would very much like to avoid Putin ever coming to power. Letting Chechnya and Russia amicably part ways might be a way to accomplish that.

I think you can agree with me Russia staying in the region did nothing to dampen ethnic hatred and that hatred would exist regardless if Russia stayed or not. My method at least means that the peoples of the Caucasus have to work through their problems themselves as their own Nation-States. Same thing happened in the Balkans, once the Turks stopped being a common enemy the region blew up. I know a lot of people died as a consequence of that. But the Balkans stabilized eventually after the Turks washed their hands of the region and the Turks are probably better off for it. Russia can play the role of mediator, it can send peacekeepers, it can keep a lot of soft power in the Caucuses. Would that solution be guaranteed work? Maybe not. In OTL Georgia fired its peacekeepers. Armenia and Azerbaijan alternate from being either at war or on the brink of war.

The point is that this Alternate History Challenge thread is trying to find what would create a best possible Russia, not stopping the Caucuses from blowing up, because that is impossible given the PoD and if we dwell on that bit too much, we are going off topic.

 

[Wendell]

The Yeltsin impeachment succeeds.

 

[Micróbio de Marte]

The Yeltsin impeachment succeeds.

The good ending. National Salvation Front time.

 

[ImperialxWarlord]

Someone other than Yeltsin being in power would help, and as mentioned the second Marshall plan idea going forward. With (hopefully) better economic policies, leadership, and greater foreign investment I think Russia would be better off. Issues with China forcing Russia to look west would help but I don’t think that’s as doable as the three I’ve laid out.

 

[Crueldwarf]

and I see at least a hundred thousand people murdered just as an estimate because Russia was determined to keep a region of people who didn't want them there and had very justified grievances to want independence.

Again, it is an absurd simplification of the picture.

Chechnya literally had a civil war over that issue before Russian intervention. Russian intervention happened exactly because a faction in that civil war began to loose and asked Moscow for help. So why exactly one group of people who want to take what they want with the force of arms is somehow better than the other group of people who want a different thing and also ready to use the violence to get it?

Another personal example. I and my family used one particular dentist for the majority of the 90s and 2000s (he is now happily retired). This guy was ethnic Chechen who had to run away from the republic in 1993 exactly because he didn't want the independence and was vocal about it. So he had to flee his homeland because it became unsafe for people like him in Grozny and he had to finish his education here in Yekaterinburg.

So are Chechens like him who were mostly Sovetized and secular are somehow worse than collection of nationalist and Islamist nutjobs who wrecked his republic?

 

[Dan1988]

Honestly, one possible way to get it going is to get both Yeltsin and Gaidar out of the way. After the August coup, Yeltsin is basically useless as focus shifts towards hating on Gaidar. So the price liberalization and all that has to be considerably delayed so that it's more well thought out and gradual (i.e. probably closer to what the original plan was rather than having the oligarchs steal everything), hence easing Russians into market economics rather than thrusting it all at once. Which basically involves Yeltsin's health taking a downward spiral (not that hard to do, honestly, as throughout 1990 he was suffering through a series of heart problems, and his tendency towards alcoholism made things a lot worse for him personally) and forcing Gaidar out of the government early on (probably replaced with someone more willing to compromise with the KPRF to get things done, like Yavlinsky and Ryzhkov?). It wouldn't make it the best possible post-Soviet Russia, but it would be a start towards that.