AHC and WI: McClellan Wins in 1864

[Admiral Halsey]

True, but how well would US soldiers fight under such circumstances? If they think the war is lost (which they are bound to believe if McClellan gets elected on a Peace Democrat platform) then won't morale and discipline collapse and desertions skyrocket?

True that could happen. Of course the opposite might just as well occur. "So they think we can't win? COME ON BOYS WE'LL SHOW THEM!"

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Guys you do know that just because McClellan wins in 64 ITTL it doesn't mean the war itself stops until he becomes president. IRRC Lincoln said he if he lost the election he would go full out to end the war before he had to leave. If he does that by the time McClellan gets sworn in the Confederacy is either on the ropes badly or basically done and not even McClellan would stop the war at that point. You'd also likely end up with a large case of buyers remorse.

Wouldn't that still depend on how much progress the Union makes in four months? And if the Union does badly enough in the months leading up to the Election, then elects McClellan, the CSA may (may, mind you) not be in as much dire straits as OTL come March.

 

[Admiral Halsey]

Wouldn't that still depend on how much progress the Union makes in four months? And if the Union does badly enough in the months leading up to the Election, then elects McClellan, the CSA may (may, mind you) not be in as much dire straits as OTL come March.

True but every causality the Union can more or less replace. The confederacy on the other hand can't. What I think'd happen is Sherman ends up attacking and taking Atlanta after a bloody fight while Grant goes after Petersburg as many times as needed to take the city.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

True but every causality the Union can more or less replace. The confederacy on the other hand can't. What I think'd happen is Sherman ends up attacking and taking Atlanta after a bloody fight while Grant goes after Petersburg as many times as needed to take the city.

Not sure the latter wasn't the case otl; and as Confederate numbers go, another thing to remember about these months otl is the devastating numbers the ANV lost to desertion; those soldiers are more likely to stick around if the CSA just needs to hold til the spring.

 

[Admiral Halsey]

Not sure the latter wasn't the case otl; and as Confederate numbers go, another thing to remember about these months otl is the devastating numbers the ANV lost to desertion; those soldiers are more likely to stick around if the CSA just needs to hold til the spring.

Again true that's possible. Still if either city falls before McClellan takes office he'll probably keep the war going.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Again true that's possible. Still if either city falls before McClellan takes office he'll probably keep the war going.

Fair enough; even otl, Petersburg didn't fall for another three weeks after Lincoln's second inaugural, so I'm guessing the main challenge here is Atlanta. Though now that I think of it, if Atlanta doesn't fall until after the election, would that really be enough to make McClellan turn (back) to a War Democrat? Especially if it's less than clear where Sherman goes from there (which almost happened otl).

 

[Admiral Halsey]

Fair enough; even otl, Petersburg didn't fall for another three weeks after Lincoln's second inaugural, so I'm guessing the main challenge here is Atlanta. Though now that I think of it, if Atlanta doesn't fall until after the election, would that really be enough to make McClellan turn (back) to a War Democrat? Especially if it's less than clear where Sherman goes from there (which almost happened otl).

Considering the city is the south's main transport hub an taking it cut the Confederacy in half yeah i'd say that taking it alone would be enough. Especially if Sherman bloodied Johnston enough when taking the city that he can't put up an effective resistance for any further action by Sherman.

 

[Claudius]

So, for McClellan to win, the CSA must do a lot better against Sherman in Georgia, and an impressive victory in the Virginia theater could only help McClellan's chances.

Lincoln's determination to fight harder if he lost in '64 will run up against Lee's discovery late in the war of the value of well-built field fortifications (e.g. Cold Harbor, Bloody Angle, etc.) The butcher's bill might prove unacceptable to a public that has just voted for peace, and Congress might try to intervene.

Question, what would happen if one John Wilkes Booth moved his plans up to just after the election, placing an unpopular Andrew Johnson in command after the public had tacitly rejected the Republican ticket. Would the Union Army fight harder or would Northern soldiers undergo the temptation to avoid being the last casualty in an unsuccessful war and begin deserting?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

So, for McClellan to win, the CSA must do a lot better against Sherman in Georgia, and an impressive victory in the Virginia theater could only help McClellan's chances.

Strictly speaking, the ANV doesn't even seem to need a major victory this late; it's now come down to the AoT.

Especially if Sherman bloodied Johnston enough when taking the city that he can't put up an effective resistance for any further action by Sherman.

What if: (1) Atlanta doesn't fall before the election; and (2) the Army of Tennesse does well enough that it's still in a fair position to keep Sherman from getting any further.

Question, what would happen if one John Wilkes Booth moved his plans up to just after the election, placing an unpopular Andrew Johnson in command after the public had tacitly rejected the Republican ticket.

Johnson would not be VP; Hamlin would be.

 

[Admiral Halsey]

Strictly speaking, the ANV doesn't even seem to need a major victory this late; it's now come down to the AoT.



What if: (1) Atlanta doesn't fall before the election; and (2) the Army of Tennesse does well enough that it's still in a fair position to keep Sherman from getting any further.

1: This has all been assuming that Atlanta didn't fall until after the election.

2: Then IMO it's a tossup on whether McClellan continues the war or not. Though I think in the end he'd continue it as with Atlanta gone the the South's major rail hub has been captured and the Confederacy has been split in two.

 

[Claudius]

Very true. Wasn't thinking.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

2: Then IMO it's a tossup on whether McClellan continues the war or not. Though I think in the end he'd continue it as with Atlanta gone the the South's major rail hub has been captured and the Confederacy has been split in two.

Ok, I can take a toss-up for now; it's enough to move to the question of how, exactly, the Army of Tenn does better TTL.

 

[Admiral Halsey]

Ok, I can take a toss-up for now; it's enough to move to the question of how, exactly, the Army of Tenn does better TTL.

Joe Johnston remaining in command seems to be the easiest way to go. Unlike John Bell Hood he won't recklessly risk his forces in an attempt to destroy Sherman's armies. Though for that to happen you'll have to keep the rift between Davis and Johnston from growing to the point that Davis would replace him.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Joe Johnston remaining in command seems to be the easiest way to go. Unlike John Bell Hood he won't recklessly risk his forces in an attempt to destroy Sherman's armies. Though for that to happen you'll have to keep the rift between Davis and Johnston from growing to the point that Davis would replace him.

At the very least, this improves CSA prospects for Peachtree Hill, meaning the siege could begin later.

 

[Admiral Halsey]

At the very least, this improves CSA prospects for Peachtree Hill, meaning the siege could begin later.

I think Johnston while doing better then Hood would still ultimately loose. The real thing he'd do better then Hood is avoid the other battles that drained manpower to the point he'd have to abandon Atlanta.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I think Johnston while doing better then Hood would still ultimately loose. The real thing he'd do better then Hood is avoid the other battles that drained manpower to the point he'd have to abandon Atlanta.

If the AoT doesn't abandon Atlanta, does the city still fall?

 

[Admiral Halsey]

If the AoT doesn't abandon Atlanta, does the city still fall?

They'll have to abandon it eventually. Unlike Lee, Johnston wouldn't be willing to let his troops starve in a siege that they'd ultimately loose. Plus he knows the key to chance of keeping the Confederacy alive is keeping his army in fighting condition. You know instead of a "Fleet in being" Johnston could essentially turn the AoT into an "Army in being".

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Would you still say Johnston staying in command is our best PoD here? I'm cuurently partial to an AoT focused chain of events meeting the OP, but other than that we've got legroom.

 

[Admiral Halsey]

Would you still say Johnston staying in command is our best PoD here? I'm cuurently partial to an AoT focused chain of events meeting the OP, but other than that we've got legroom.

Johnston staying in command is absolutely the best PoD short of having Grant and the AotP get annihilated at some point in the wilderness campaign. And when I say annihilated I mean the AotP ceases to exist type disaster.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Johnston staying in command is absolutely the best PoD short of...

OK, so Johnston staying on it is.