AHC: African Japan
- Thread starter Ultimate Paragon
- Start date
Nitpick: Actually Transvaal was the South African Republic and Oranje Vrijstaat was the Orange Free State.
I don't think Madagascar is well-positioned to expand much, if at all. The Merina built their kingdom in the highlands, but it was difficult to expand much outside of them, because they (who had the highest Asian descent of any of the Malagasy groups) didn't have the malaria resistance of the lowlanders. Being outside of the highlands was literally hazardous to their health.
SunDeep
Banned
In Madagascar's Merina Kingdom, you have a ruling dynasty over the entire island which is even older than the Tokugawa Shogunate. In Radama II, you have a king who ended the island's long-standing policy of isolationism and Christian persecution by re-opening the island to European influence in 1861. In Japan, Perry's ships had forced the Japanese to do exactly the same thing only three years earlier. Unlike in Japan though, where the traditionalist reactionaries in power were overthrown by the progressive modernists in the Meiji restoration, the opposite happened in Madagascar IOTL; the ruling monarch Radama II, who was himself held in high repute as a progressive, liberal modernist, was assassinated by the traditionalist reactionaries in court, bringing about the downfall of the Merina dynasty. Like the Japanese, Madagascans were perceived to be different to the rest of the people on their continent by the Europeans; they had visibly lighter skin, and this led to them being deemed by the Europeans to be 'racially superior' to other Africans, in much the same manner that the Japanese were deemed to be superior to other Asian peoples. In Radama II, they had a leader who was prepared to make a concerted effort to modernise, and to industrialise.
Even more crucially though, unlike most other candidates in Africa, Madagascar has the resources to do it, with the island possessing even greater coal and iron reserves that those of either pre-industrial Japan or Great Britain. And just like Japan, Madagascar has a long naval tradition; it's the only significant island nation in Africa, so its land borders are completely secure as long as it can modernise its navy. For this reason, just like Japan, the focus of the industrialising Madagascar's military complex will be on its Imperial Navy (and an Air Force, once the concept emerges); and you can even extend the 'African Japan' analogy for Madagascar to its neighbours. Zanzibar, and its dominions along the Zanj Coast, could easily serve as Madagscar's 'African Korea'.
SunDeep
Banned
They had established control over the entire island themselves a couple of centuries before the French got there though. And while the dynasty was Merina, the Merina was just one of several Malagasy groups. As a whole, this genetic element doesn't really hamper Madagascar's chances, any more than the genetic deficiencies caused by inbreeding in the European royal families impaired their kingdoms' chances. You might as well say that the British Empire didn't have a chance, because just being alive was literally hazardous to Queen Victoria's health...
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Europeans had major issues penetrating Africa until quinine was in regular use, as the mortality rates of white administrators were absurdly high.
More broadly, the issue with the scenario you outline is that the mid 19th century is simply too late of a POD. A better Madagascar could clearly have maintained territorial integrity, and ended up a protectorate rather than a colony. But Madagascar was starting from further behind technologically than Japan. It was also surrounded by already claimed land. Mauritius and Reunion were already settled. Portugal had been involved in Mozambique for centuries. The Swahili coast further up doesn't seem to offer fertile ground, nor does South Africa, for obvious reasons. The best I could see Madagascar doing is perhaps getting some of the Comoros, but Mayotte is likely out of reach even in this case since it was French colony since 1841.
SunDeep
Banned
Well, the important thing here is that, as with Japan, Madagascar isn't actually surrounded by already claimed land; it's surrounded by water (what with being an island and all). The lands across the seas from it were already settled, but how is that any different from Japan's situation post-Meiji? How long had the Spanish been involved in the Phillipines, and the Dutch been involved in the Dutch East Indies? The Swahili coast may not seem like the most fertile ground to you, but it still strikes one as being far more fertile than Hokkaido and Sakhalin are. Indeed, if you want to be literal, the Swahili Coastal Plains actually offer a higher agricultural yield than the Korean archipelago does.
And the Sultanate of Zanzibar's mainland territories weren't claimed by the Europeans until 1884; if the Madagascans occupy and annex Zanzibar before then (a tall order, but still a far easier task than the occupation and annexation of Korea, given how much smaller Zanzibar itself is) they get to do with those mainland territories what they will. And when an encroaching European colonial power decides to fight them for it (such as Italy in the Northern Zanj, or Portugal in the Southern Zanj); well, the stage would be set for Imperial Madagascar's equivalent to the Russo-Japanese War, and its coming-of-age on the world stage. Perhaps a Franco-Malagasy Alliance could be in place by this stage, akin to OTL's Anglo-Japanese Alliance, which would prevent European allies from coming to the aid of Madagascar's adversary in a similar fashion?
<nitpick>Well, actually, a year is too late. Six months may be too late. Six days is definitely NOT too late.</nitpick>
In other words, never say never.
