AHC: A surviving Aztec or Inca Empire invades the Spanish mainland
- Thread starter qazse
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What I think the below could work for a most indigenous states in general I think the Aztecs specifically, I would exclude long-term so I'm largely thinking about incan and continuation
I think the first step is to reduce the power of the Spanish. The simplest way is probably in tropical butterflies some early expeditions go wrong, things are a little spicier in Europe distracting them, while some of their political opponents do better in the same initial explorations, and ideally a different and slightly less friendly to the Spanish pope. So by the time there are significant attempts to influence/conquer the Inca there are multiple different European powers involved (let's say Spain, Portugal, and England). While also seeing Incan politics lead to a monarch qho is very pragmatic (which to be fair may even have been the case OTL we don't have the most information to go on
At this point there is a real benefit to keeping some of the pre-existing structures and the monarchy of the Inca intact, is likely much easier to hold and maintain a puppet/client, when you have your political opponents breathing down your neck. As it makes life easier later on let's say Portugal pulls this off (as is likely to be relatively weaker compared to Spain when the time comes just due to size), the Incan emperor sees the writing on the wall (possibly some of his neighbours have a very brutal occupation by the Spanish in the British), he very loudly converts, swears submission to the kingdom of Portugal, and you end up with something like the princely states in British India very clearly part of the Imperial whole, but able to keep quite broad autonomy. Conveniently this happening fairly early in colonisation also legitimises as a model so you probably see a few more native states to survive in the same way.
Now at this point you've got a bunch of places you can go. I agree with what others have said that the easiest route for this is effectively weight out decolonisation, wars of independence burn through Latin America at some point, the Incan are part of this, they slowly develop and modernise as an independent country and then a part of a broad coalition, in alternative World War I or World War II that includes them landing troops on the Spanish mainland.
But if you want this to happen even earlier and for the state to be more recognisably Incan I think we can manage it quite a bit faster with the above.
In this case given a couple of generations relations a Napoleon equivalent (continental dominating, , land power , somewhat revolutionary) arises in Europe, and the Portuguese government ends up generally on its side. A competing imperial power with naval dominance (ease let's assume in this case it's the British) can't unseat the continental power at this point but does manage to effectively occupy Portugal's American territories (ideally say the governor of Brazil or whatever the crown jewel of the Portuguese empire is in this timeline is very much opposed to the Napoleon equivalent's interests so more willing to cut a deal). The Brits certainly managed to seize and outright rule some of these colonies but a lot of them it has to be very light touch influence just as they stretched too far by the wider war. As the war comes to an end the British are quite happy with their new-found dominance in a big chunk of the Americas and want to keep it so offer, the Incan's independence (granted with a British resident and an awful lot of British business interests), in return for backing their interests in the region the Incan's agree when the time comes to actually push the Napoleon equivalent out of the peninsula as part of a sign of their new-found alliance the British include some Incan forces in the invasion fleet, and a big deal is made in the resulting peace treaty of this having been effectively the war of independence of the Incan's and they end up as a state definitely in the sphere over/under British influence but both de facto and de jure pretty independent (I thought this could be pulled off by the mid-1700s to early 1800s)
I think the first step is to reduce the power of the Spanish. The simplest way is probably in tropical butterflies some early expeditions go wrong, things are a little spicier in Europe distracting them, while some of their political opponents do better in the same initial explorations, and ideally a different and slightly less friendly to the Spanish pope. So by the time there are significant attempts to influence/conquer the Inca there are multiple different European powers involved (let's say Spain, Portugal, and England). While also seeing Incan politics lead to a monarch qho is very pragmatic (which to be fair may even have been the case OTL we don't have the most information to go on
At this point there is a real benefit to keeping some of the pre-existing structures and the monarchy of the Inca intact, is likely much easier to hold and maintain a puppet/client, when you have your political opponents breathing down your neck. As it makes life easier later on let's say Portugal pulls this off (as is likely to be relatively weaker compared to Spain when the time comes just due to size), the Incan emperor sees the writing on the wall (possibly some of his neighbours have a very brutal occupation by the Spanish in the British), he very loudly converts, swears submission to the kingdom of Portugal, and you end up with something like the princely states in British India very clearly part of the Imperial whole, but able to keep quite broad autonomy. Conveniently this happening fairly early in colonisation also legitimises as a model so you probably see a few more native states to survive in the same way.
Now at this point you've got a bunch of places you can go. I agree with what others have said that the easiest route for this is effectively weight out decolonisation, wars of independence burn through Latin America at some point, the Incan are part of this, they slowly develop and modernise as an independent country and then a part of a broad coalition, in alternative World War I or World War II that includes them landing troops on the Spanish mainland.
But if you want this to happen even earlier and for the state to be more recognisably Incan I think we can manage it quite a bit faster with the above.
In this case given a couple of generations relations a Napoleon equivalent (continental dominating, , land power , somewhat revolutionary) arises in Europe, and the Portuguese government ends up generally on its side. A competing imperial power with naval dominance (ease let's assume in this case it's the British) can't unseat the continental power at this point but does manage to effectively occupy Portugal's American territories (ideally say the governor of Brazil or whatever the crown jewel of the Portuguese empire is in this timeline is very much opposed to the Napoleon equivalent's interests so more willing to cut a deal). The Brits certainly managed to seize and outright rule some of these colonies but a lot of them it has to be very light touch influence just as they stretched too far by the wider war. As the war comes to an end the British are quite happy with their new-found dominance in a big chunk of the Americas and want to keep it so offer, the Incan's independence (granted with a British resident and an awful lot of British business interests), in return for backing their interests in the region the Incan's agree when the time comes to actually push the Napoleon equivalent out of the peninsula as part of a sign of their new-found alliance the British include some Incan forces in the invasion fleet, and a big deal is made in the resulting peace treaty of this having been effectively the war of independence of the Incan's and they end up as a state definitely in the sphere over/under British influence but both de facto and de jure pretty independent (I thought this could be pulled off by the mid-1700s to early 1800s)
I think a bigger Pod for this sort of thing in the beginning is to just have the spanish not be able to shake off Gonzalo Pizarro and his brother's reign from the incan territories, as it was only the pizarros initially ruling the place not the spanish crown. With it being delayed essentially the incas are in the same situation as what the spanish experienced with the visigoths aka only a few ruling elites are actually spanish to begin with. With that in mind the moment they die out for whatever reason the mestizaje would have been really minimal and the incas or whatever name they would take from that point would have been as intact as it gets. The problem with it all is that the pizarros ruled a very unstable government and there were definitely a bunch of revolts and other things because unlike the spanish they didn't care as much about protectionist laws and this other stuff. And that could very well also work on the other way around, as in that the people of the andes would know well to not trust another gonzalo pizarro from what had happened. As for if they would be able to catch up to everyone else, that's also another issue as if there were to be trade with the spanish it would mean that they'd have quit with trying to mess with the place which could only happen if they really did give up after the first or second attempt to take over Gonzalo Pizarro's lands. This also means that if the spanish don't join up with them the many ammenities that both the royal incan blood and the everyday people of the land received like the universities and hospitals, the trade with asia via the philippines, the chronics and the dictionaries, all of that would probably not exist and its likely that it would mean some information thats been recorded in OTL wouldn't have had the chance to exist until the Incas would adopt a writing system by themselves eventually. It would be considerably harder for the land to develop as well as it did in OTL therefore, so how could it be achieved in an alternate form?
The point you make about the spanish being brutal nearby would really depend on who it was, because the spanish kings themselves were very pro-indigenous so it only means that either conquistadores or other independent parties or corrupt local governments would've been the brutal neighbors that the incas would've been wary of.
And the thing you mention about broad autonomy, that already happened with the viceroyalty of peru IOTL. During all of the hapsburg period really, because that was always the hapsburg way of ruling their overseas communities as they did the exact same thing with the european lands as well. That's why the bourbon reforms are more impactful since it changed all of that. The first viceroy toledo was more serious and did more direct things, but at the same time at that time the whole incan empire and its lands were all a mess from what had happened throughout the whole pizarro, atahualpa, huascar, diego de almagro, and manco inca fiasco among others.
Lastly you give Britain too much credit, places like Jamaica, Belize, Guyana, and a lot of islands in the caribbean like bahamas or aruba were all british but a lot of them today aren't very well developed nor did the british care too much about them. Not to mention the actual extermination of natives that the english did to all their colonies, I can't imagine that the incas would have had a nice end were they to be governed by the british. Even India throughout ww2, Churchill had indirectly caused one of the worst famines there that they ever had. And to add to this, the british very much already had themselves involved in south america IOTL anyways as well. There was a lot of masonry within the libertadores there and they funded the very hispanoamerican revolutions that occured. Then they stole the gold from a bunch of places like from Peru that Jose de San Martin willingly gave to them, put all of them in a horrible debt, and also took a whole bunch of their mines and lands for their own use, and also destroyed a bunch of the industries that were just starting in these newly independent republics. Considering all of this, would have the british done nearly as much as you mention or without some sort of benefit to their end? Considering that in this timeline that the incas arent a part of hispanoamerica, that the british only help them so the incas can do the whole fight for them alongside the would be the libertadores at the cost of the incas themselves? How can the incas help out in europe in a napoleon scenario when they face the other side of the ocean, they would have to have had to have lands in the atlantic at the very least and even then the logistics don't lend themselves very easily. It's one of the reasons why the spanish in OTL never bothered to really call upon their citizens at all from abroad when they were dealing with wars in the peninsula.
Note that the Peruvian anthem is in Spanish and in a different stanza makes its declarations in the name of the God of Jacob, i.e. the Christian God. Also, a lot of mentions about Spain devastating the Americas.
Having now read Aztec history for a video I'm making if the Aztec empire was so weak the crisis it had in the 15th century, climate and population wise the empire was doing great it had encircled one main enemy and it had halted the expansion of another the valley and central Mexico saw a population boom with high urbanization.
Really until the mega drought of 1540s ( assuming no European encounter) that the Aztec will have to deal with crisis in that time who knows if they decide to subjugate
I don't think it's feasible nor can I think of a good cause for this to happen any sooner than the industrial revolution at the absolute earliest. I place the Inca or a successor state to them as the more likely candidate to be politically organized for such an invasion. But conversely, the Inca are horribly out of luck when it comes to actual industrialization and their resources.
Abundant guano(+++), sulfur, copper, platinum, gold, and silver is all well and good but you need coal and iron. They can trade for iron and sources aren't super far away, but a lack of coal can be and will be crippling. On the other hand, the Inca are going to have a not atrocious trade balance so long as that guano continues to reach foreign markets and isn't still under a domestic monopoly enforced under threat of death as it was during pre-Spanish times.
So a nice demographic rebound given stability, time and space is likely. Having the industrial muscle to invade Spain and get away with it seems like a very hard ask. Mexico would be more likely to have the resources for it if they keep El Norte, but then, that isn't the Aztecs. And Mexico is what happens when you give Afghanistan a bad coastline. I'm not holding out on Mesoamerican naval tradition to pop off. The Inca on the other hand, far more likely IMO.
Abundant guano(+++), sulfur, copper, platinum, gold, and silver is all well and good but you need coal and iron. They can trade for iron and sources aren't super far away, but a lack of coal can be and will be crippling. On the other hand, the Inca are going to have a not atrocious trade balance so long as that guano continues to reach foreign markets and isn't still under a domestic monopoly enforced under threat of death as it was during pre-Spanish times.
So a nice demographic rebound given stability, time and space is likely. Having the industrial muscle to invade Spain and get away with it seems like a very hard ask. Mexico would be more likely to have the resources for it if they keep El Norte, but then, that isn't the Aztecs. And Mexico is what happens when you give Afghanistan a bad coastline. I'm not holding out on Mesoamerican naval tradition to pop off. The Inca on the other hand, far more likely IMO.
I'll grant you the iron but that's less than 0% of the world's known reserves of coal at 112 million tonnes. Ease of access, abundance, and low cost of energy is pivotal for industrial development IMO and I don't think Peru has that in its favor at all. There is plenty of coal in Colombia at least, it's the fourth biggest exporter of coal in the world today. 5 trillion tonnes, by comparison. Though IMO more Caribbean-oriented than Andes-oriented as far as the location of the coal.
So taking that at face value, abundance of coal and iron is possible but control or economic hegemony of Colombia is mandatory to enable this. The easiest way to get coal to the Andes is probably going to be by ship and later through rail. So the area around Quito could be the economic center of this Inca state through inertia and economic necessity.
I feel they'd soon hit the end of their logistical tether given the distance from the capital. Conquering the old Olmec heartland as they desired to would be the last major conquest they make, assuming they can't beat the Purepecha.
There was a Mesoamerican naval tradition since there is evidence the Huastecs sailed north to southern Texas to trade for shells while the Maya periodically sailed to Cuba and modern Nicaragua and Costa Rica to import gold. The coastal city states in the Pacific were also extensively involved in naval trade, although they did not appear to sail as far as their Atlantic counterparts or the natives of modern coastal Ecuador.
Problem is the Aztecs would need to better incorporate them into their empire or we'd need something like a reformed Mayapan.
It can't be too bad given control of that one sliver south of Luxemburg was a key German war goal in WWI. The coal in the north of France i.e. near Lille is geologically the same as the Walloon coal which let Belgium become the second industrial country in the world.
For one the Tlaxcalans get conquered or vassalized the flower wars weren't only for sacrifice they were part of keeping pressure and slowly encircling them the Spanish commented how this always effected the tlaxcalans as they were cut off
advanced four leagues to some villages in the state of Huexotzinco, where we were well received by the natives, who gave me a number of female slaves, some cotton cloth, and, several small pieces of gold, amounting altogether to very little, as the people are not well supplied with it, on account of their belonging to the league and party of the Tlaxcalans, and being so closely hemmed in on all sides by the territory of Motecuzoma, that they could have no trade with any other province but their own; whence they lived very poorly.
Aside from them imo the Mexica they had recently lost control over their tributaries in Oaxaca, go south east , this because in the otl after a coalition of local petty kingdoms lead by Guisii Gui destroyed the Aztec army on return from its successful campaign in Xoconochco, in the Battle of Guiengola. ( This also goes against the house of cards view of the Aztec as in one defeat would cripple it ) the Aztec had temporary before this battle had pushed ad far as Honduras
Not related but depending how much time the non European contact occurs I think the Inca will continue to push up the Andes how far they make it to Colombia depends on a lot of factors but deepening on the time given they might actually reach the Pacific ocean
If I'm not mistaken most french reserves are actually in the south not the Belgium or Germany border
I'm not sure what you mean here. I'm aware the Aztecs had a conception of geopolitics and where they conquered and why, but maintaining an empire based in a mountain valley well away from the coast or navigable rivers and without having any horses or pack animals means their control over the periphery will always be limited and expensive. They couldn't go much further than they did without relying far more on the sea.
The Inca too had a logistical limit. They faced difficulties in Ecuador, lost to the Mapuche, and Ecuador provided a base of support for Atahualpa in his civil war. Although they built a magnificent road and postal system for their region, had llamas as pack animals, and thorough control over the coast, I'm not convinced they'd be able to achieve much more in the way of expansion without their empire splitting in two. Especially not in a time that will be marked by epidemic and great social change caused by the arrival of Europeans.
They peaked at 60% of French coal production in the mid-20th century, and in the late 19th century were around 1/3 of coal produced. Operating costs were exoes
I'm saying that the Aztecs will likely conquer the tlaxcalans and might expand more to the south east
The mapuche one is still debated the results of the battle of maule were uncertain some say it was the mapuche resistance other said it was the fact the Inca didnt want to press on as they saw no gains from conquering further south and I believe it was both resistance was strong and there wasn't any economic or practical reason to go further to chile
I think it really depends on the scenario if no European arrival I see the Inca expanding way more to Colombia since unlike the mapuche the cultures of the Colombian highlands have much more to offer the Inca, now if it's the Europeans arrive but assuming the pod that the Aztec survived European encounters even with the plagues I see the Inca recover with out Mexico there is no a strong precedent for conquest.
Also while plagues would be bad we have to remember the Spanish wars and abuses contributed massively to not only the decline but also the populations not recovering the Inca and Aztec plagues would be bad but they would be more like the black death with population recoveries decades not centuries after