AH Concept: East Asian West Coast in the 19th Century

[GameBawesome]

(So, I'm trying to come up with an idea for a concept for a private project of mine, inspired by @Ambassador Huntsman's timeline amazing Nobunaga's Ambition Timeline (Go read it if you haven't), but not using the Gavin Menzies' 1421 idea; I want late East Asian colonization, where Japan initiates the race. Also, yes, this is already killing a million butterflies, but I'm merely conceptualizing and refining the idea.)

In a timeline where East Asia nations (Mostly Japan and Ming China) cross the Pacific Ocean and discover the West Coast in the 16th Century-17th Century (By the way, Japan doesn't go isolation as ruled by the Oda Clan, and Ming China doesn't fall to the Manchus and revitalize naval exploration), using the Pacific currents to get there and back, with ships suited to long-distance.

East Asian nations begin setting up claims and trade with the natives for furs, or in China's case trading (Or smuggling) directly for silver further South with Spain. However, these claims are mostly scattered trading posts, with some of the more Southern ones becoming small towns (Japan getting most of the Pacific Northwest and Ming China getting California). East Asia also keeps up with Europeans tech-wise. They conflict with Spanish claims to the region, and later with the British and Russia as well. But after series of skirmishes and treaties, it's eventually settled somewhat this by the 18th century:

• Russia gains half of Alaska, after the Japanese abandoned the trading posts decades ago. Their capital trading port is around the tip of OTL Washington State
• Japan gains a lot of the West Coast, while having influence in the further inland on paper with the Hudson Bay Company.
• Ming China gains some parts of the Californias, with some influence further inland. Their capital trading port is OTL San Francisco
• Spain keeps a lot of their remaining territories.

Meanwhile, on the East Coast, pretty much goes the same as OTL, with the American Revolution happening, and Untied States gaining independence, and expands Westward. Also, Mexico gains independence and British North America (Canada) expands further West. This throws a wrench in the area, and it looks like this, and changes the border to this:

• Borders were straightened out
• The Pacific Northwest becomes a tripartite condominium or tridominium between the Hudson Bay Company (Britain), the Japanese, and the United States, the last of which has settlers coming West.
• Mexico and Ming China has out their borders, but still left unsatisfied.
• Russia gains more of OTL Alaska, besides the Southern parts, which is given to Japan.

With that out of the way, where do you think this could lead to? Could this lead to an all out war between the Nations. Would America have to fight a series of wars to complete a full Westward Expansion? How would East Asian cultures effect the region? Where could this all lead too?

(Again, it's an outlandish scenario, to the point of ASB and kills millions of butterflies, but lets roll with it for fun. It's mainly conceptualizing)

 

[Hearkener]

With that out of the way, where do you think this could lead to? Could this lead to an all out war between the Nations. Would America have to fight a series of wars to complete a full Westward Expansion? How would East Asian cultures effect the region? Where could this all lead too?

Manifest destiny was largely inspired by the fact that nobody could really stop the US after they defeated Mexico. If California is a major Chinese colony, as opposed to the thinly settled backwater it was under Spanish and Mexican rule, actually crossing the Rockies with an army in the face of determined opposition is a nightmare scenario. I don't think America moves much further west than the Mississippi watershed in that case. The West Coast NAs are still screwed; Chinese settler colonialism is a thing IOTL and about as humane as the American version (i.e. not at all) - ditto with Japan in Hokkaido.

I actually did a very similiar scenario back in high-school, but I made Korea the big colonizers because they had both the most modern navy and the highest technological state in EA before the Manchu invasion.

 

[Ambassador Huntsman]

(So, I'm trying to come up with an idea for a concept for a private project of mine, inspired by @Ambassador Huntsman's timeline amazing Nobunaga's Ambition Timeline (Go read it if you haven't), but not using the Gavin Menzies' 1421 idea; I want late East Asian colonization, where Japan initiates the race. Also, yes, this is already killing a million butterflies, but I'm merely conceptualizing and refining the idea.)

In a timeline where East Asia nations (Mostly Japan and Ming China) cross the Pacific Ocean and discover the West Coast in the 16th Century-17th Century (By the way, Japan doesn't go isolation as ruled by the Oda Clan, and Ming China doesn't fall to the Manchus and revitalize naval exploration), using the Pacific currents to get there and back, with ships suited to long-distance.

View attachment 885218

East Asian nations begin setting up claims and trade with the natives for furs, or in China's case trading (Or smuggling) directly for silver further South with Spain. However, these claims are mostly scattered trading posts, with some of the more Southern ones becoming small towns (Japan getting most of the Pacific Northwest and Ming China getting California). East Asia also keeps up with Europeans tech-wise. They conflict with Spanish claims to the region, and later with the British and Russia as well. But after series of skirmishes and treaties, it's eventually settled somewhat this by the 18th century:

View attachment 885234

• Russia gains half of Alaska, after the Japanese abandoned the trading posts decades ago. Their capital trading port is around the tip of OTL Washington State
• Japan gains a lot of the West Coast, while having influence in the further inland on paper with the Hudson Bay Company.
• Ming China gains some parts of the Californias, with some influence further inland. Their capital trading port is OTL San Francisco
• Spain keeps a lot of their remaining territories.

Meanwhile, on the East Coast, pretty much goes the same as OTL, with the American Revolution happening, and Untied States gaining independence, and expands Westward. Also, Mexico gains independence and British North America (Canada) expands further West. This throws a wrench in the area, and it looks like this, and changes the border to this:
View attachment 885238

• Borders were straightened out
• The Pacific Northwest becomes a tripartite condominium or tridominium between the Hudson Bay Company (Britain), the Japanese, and the United States, the last of which has settlers coming West.
• Mexico and Ming China has out their borders, but still left unsatisfied.
• Russia gains more of OTL Alaska, besides the Southern parts, which is given to Japan.

With that out of the way, where do you think this could lead to? Could this lead to an all out war between the Nations. Would America have to fight a series of wars to complete a full Westward Expansion? How would East Asian cultures effect the region? Where could this all lead too?

(Again, it's an outlandish scenario, to the point of ASB and kills millions of butterflies, but let’s roll with it for fun. It's mainly conceptualizing)

I’m very intrigued and hooked by this elaborate concept, looking forward to hearing more. Also which software do you use for those maps, I’m looking to improve the quality of the maps I make for my TL lol.

 

[Arkenfolm]

The HBC had no power in the Pacific Northwest before the late 18th century. If Oda unites Japan and pushes north in the 17th century, they would be in the PNW long before any Europeans. More importantly, they'd be the ones introducing the horse to local Indians. The interior PNW was filled with tribes who periodically traveled to the Plains to hunt bison, or otherwise valued bison pelts and meat--this means there would be a large movement eastward instead of westward starting in the early 18th century. Probably at least one Interior Salish group, the Kutenai, the Tsuutina, and maybe a Nez Perce group or the Cayuse would relocate to the Plains, driving various Shoshone tribes and Algoquians like the Blackfoot and westernmost bands of Cree to the east. Those groups in turn would have to deal with the Algonquians migrating west or the various Central and Southern Plains Indians and probably form confederations with either the more easterly or westerly Indians.

That Japanese route doesn't make much sense either, since a quicker route is returning via the Alaska Current and its associated coastal winds which seasonally blow westwards. The Chinese would probably want to avoid sailing off shore Japan and directly copy the Manila Galleon route, which would mean they'd try and gain control over at the very least Luzon.

Ming China was thoroughly corrupt and ossified by the 17th century. I don't think they could reform into a state that would have any reason to do overseas voyages without some utter disaster like losing the northern half of China to Qing or Shun and then having Southern Ming fall under the control of Koxinga who I guess could keep Taiwan (Dongning) as a personal fief or something. Alternative, Li Zicheng's Shun could fill the role since they'd be a brand new dynasty and could see abandonment of foreign power projection by sea as a reason why their predecessor fell, plus they would need a navy to conquer the rest of the Ming given Southern China's geography.

Russia gains half of Alaska, after the Japanese abandoned the trading posts decades ago. Their capital trading port is around the tip of OTL Washington State

Why would Japan abandon Alaska, much less abandon it to a rival who has minimal power projection in the Pacific? That would be the wealthiest and most productive area, because it is incredibly rich in furs and also has natives who traded jade and copper. The southern coast of Alaska can also support farms, although this possibly wouldn't be done on any scale since the Japanese trade ideal would be to send Alaska rice and grain in exchange for furs and jade. By the time the furs are depleted, the area can support fishing and whaling and very likely the rich veins of gold are discovered.

Japan gains a lot of the West Coast, while having influence in the further inland on paper with the Hudson Bay Company.

The Japanese West Coast borders don't make sense, since the Coast Mountains aren't really a barrier outside of maybe British Columbia. There are several bays in Washington and Oregon with navigable rivers that lead directly inland and Puget Sound is easily traversed. Control over the Columbia River's mouth opens up the entire river system to at least the Cascades, and south of that is the Umpqua River which also is readily traversible up to the Cascades. Even if these are just French-style trading posts, inevitably there would be centralisation on the largest Indian centers like Willamette Falls, the Chinookan towns of Sauvie Island and possibly as far as the Dalles past the Cascades, which was probably the largest in the Pacific Northwest (at least during the weeks various people gathered there).

And let's also consider that if the first settlement in this area starts in the late 17th century (a century after discovery of the New World), there would be almost a century before the first HBC agents show up (although they might show up earlier to trade with the Japanese). All the local Indians will have been subjugated to some degree or another, or very possibly dead because of introduced disease such as smallpox and malaria. There would be a class of powerful mixed-race chiefs who would control a lot of the trade and they would be generally loyal to Japanese interests. New France in one century went from 3,200 to 70,000 people (not counting Indians), while the Matsumae Domain also had sizable growth in Japanese population, despite their settlement being forbidden in almost all of Hokkaido. There's no reason the Japanese would ever cede control of this land and their vassal Indians to outsiders, barring some colossal defeat in a war which isn't going to be happening if East Asia keeps technological pace since the Pacific Northwest is on the other side of the planet from Europe. And if they did lose a war, why wouldn't they lose all of their land, or have more sensible borders like the Fraser River watershed + Cascades?

It also begs the question just how much control the Japanese or Chinese even could have on the other side of the world. Anyone disliked by the state could sneak aboard a ship, go to the New World, and vanish into the wilderness. It's a lot easier to ban settlement in places like Hokkaido or Manchuria than it is to ban New World settlement. And who's to say the policy wouldn't eventually change? Both Japan and China in this era can dump a huge number of settlers in the New World if they ever needed to, and natural disasters/famine relief would give them the perfect excuse.

Ming China gains some parts of the Californias, with some influence further inland. Their capital trading port is OTL San Francisco

Same thing as above--control over San Francisco Bay and the San Joaquin Delta means control over at least the immediate reaches of the Central Valley, as Spain and later Mexico exerted (they claimed the entire thing anyway, though). Southern California is a little harder though since there are no major rivers and control would not be far beyond the coast. The northern border would be somewhere between the southern Cascades and the northern mountains of the Central Valley, somewhere near Mount Shasta and the Klamath River, because that's a natural boundary which one can even tell affected the Amerindians given the differences in culture between groups north and south.
I would predict this area to have a lot of colonial competition, since the Klamath people of southern OR/northeastern CA would be fairly powerful, especially since they would get the horse early on. OTL Klamath raiders often raided the tribes of northern California and southern Oregon and enslaved women and children which they sold far to the north at The Dalles. This suggests they'd be oriented northward, but since they'd be raiding tribes loosely allied to the Chinese, the Chinese would want to do something about them and if possible, bring them under their control.

Would America have to fight a series of wars to complete a full Westward Expansion

Which they would probably lose since they'd first have to fight through long-established Indian confederations before crossing vast mountains to fight in areas with long-established forts and defensive networks. And god forbid the East Asian powers still control that area and the Americans aren't fighting a second rate independent state. It would be easier to just attack Mexico as OTL and grab Sonora and/or Baja California.

 

[GameBawesome]

I’m very intrigued and hooked by this elaborate concept, looking forward to hearing more. Also which software do you use for those maps, I’m looking to improve the quality of the maps I make for my TL lol.

Thank you. Also, I just use Microsoft Paint (The old version. I don't use the new one) and QBAM maps from @Sharklord1 or Crazy-Boris.

 

[BBadolato]

As someone else who has planned East Colonization of the West Coast, or at least Japanese colonization it's not easy. (Mind you, I'm starting from the premise of Japan being united by the Imagawa, largely because Sakoku you can chalk up to the Tokugawa's lack of real military power to control Japan, because of the situation in which than an inevitability by anyone who unites Japan.)

First and foremost. You cannot replicate any of the European models, or at least you should not, because there are inherent differences in how government would work in the first place. The only example of early modern Japanese colonialism pre-Meiji was Hokkaido by the Kakizaki/Matsumae clan, which was done over a period of a few centuries, This clan was on the fringes of Japanese politics in every sense of the word, and it's expansion was limited to what the clan was willing and able to do. For any theoretical Japanese colonies in any kind of ATL Sengoku period, they are probably going to start off as some kind of feudal clan given the land or perhaps some kind of charter, similar to how some of the British colonies where chartered.

While it's not the America's I have toyed with the concept of Japanese colonized Philippines, where it's basically being done by clans who have more autonomy than at home, although that was done by using a butterfly net with Spain, and working off the ruins of a glorified pirate kingdom. But I'm working with a Japan that may or may not be 'baseline' because Japan itself has serious issues that have to be resolved and what those resolutions look like can also determine what colonization looks like.

As for China, assuming you don't go the Kongxia route and try replicating an entire dynastic administration because of migration, it might have to be a venture brought up by merchants, and what this looks like administration wise is anyone's guess because it raises of question of if said colony gets large enough to do you see a replication of Chinese bureaucratic practices, or something more akin to Chinese feudal lords. It's short because we really don't have much to go off other than Taiwan being a prefecture level administration of the Fujian Province.

The biggest issue with East Asian colonies is they are going to be highly decentralized affairs where the central government to the extent one might exist in the case of Japan, or care in the case of China is going to be very slim outside of an occasional communique or trade regardless of any dynasty or 'naval revival'. Assuming you can even hash out a way to make these colonial ventures happen, you have to figure how they internally develop both the administration and borders because you are not going to get an xyz chunk of land as one clean administrative division. You could easily see all manner of towns, castle towns, or leagues of villages spring up in parallel authority to whatever claims to be head of the colonial authority.

Second: COLONIES ARE NOT INSTANT MONEY MAKERS, OR GARUENTEED SUCCESS BY MAGICAL WHITE OR IN THIS CASE, NON-NATIVE PEOPLE!!! I'm putting this in caps and bold to emphasize a point.
Will the colonists have crops, will these crops last, will the natives be 'friendly', and what inevitable conflict are the colonists going to be dragged into between these natives? Again a whole bunch of questions that require some thought put into them. Even going off @Arkenfolm's correct observations that trying for East Asian colonialism from POD's in the 1500's has heavy butterfly implications that could a lot of your presupposed scenario mute. Namely English/British, French, and Russian colonialism would really kick off until much later, and with the second rule do keep in mind European colonization was more based off lucky breaks and them playing spoiler for local conflicts.

Local conflicts that could have easily seen the European efforts thwarted, and some of these same issues could befall any potential East Asian colonizers. Especially since the West Coast is home to many peoples, there's a whole mess of relationships to navigate, at least ideally. SO PLEASE ACTUALLY TREAT THE NATIVE PEOPLES AS MATTERING TOO, AND NOT SOMETHING TO IGNORE, KILL OFF, OR 'ASSIMILATE' I hate the cliché of irrelevant natives so damn much, especially when with some research there's a lot you can do with them, culture, religious practices, food, and war if you are scrapping the bottom of the barrel. These interactions can be very much a two way street, although again the how's and why's require some thought because AH in general tends to gloss over or ignore things that aren't war or politics.

As far as expenses go, colonies are going to be money sinks that the mother country might not care to foot the bill, and are generally just going to be ignored unless something really valuable is found there, and even then it's still a question of distance as far as travel comes into the equation, and by extension trade. Maybe better communication or even changing circumstances leads to a change in relationship of the colonies with the 'mother country' granted you could have plenty of divergence among identities as well.

The concept isn't impossible, but it's something ideally you need to put care into. If your end goal is making a something that is functionally European empire with different paint slapped on it, long before European methods come to dominate everything you might as well not even bother in my opinion because that's doing an interesting idea a disservice in it's execution.


@Ambassador Huntsman if your looking to edit maps, I use GIMP for my maps but the thing is editing a map is easy, getting or even making the maps you want can be the hard part, especially if you have to splice together different maps that use the same formats, because some areas have more ideal details with borders, and making your own borders also requires some at times serious effort.

 

[sarapen]

As for China, assuming you don't go the Kongxia route and try replicating an entire dynastic administration because of migration, it might have to be a venture brought up by merchants, and what this looks like administration wise is anyone's guess because it raises of question of if said colony gets large enough to do you see a replication of Chinese bureaucratic practices, or something more akin to Chinese feudal lords. It's short because we really don't have much to go off other than Taiwan being a prefecture level administration of the Fujian Province.

The best historical model for private Chinese colonies would be the kongsi republics of Southeast Asia. They had zero input from the Chinese state and were set up as independent polities. Also there's the example of Chinese adventurers marrying into aristocratic families in various parts of maritime Southeast Asia. Some of the city-states in Indonesia had Chinese rulers, though over time they just assimilated into the local society.

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

I have got a question: could the date the East Asians discover the Americas be extended back farther? Because if the Chinese and the Japanese discover the Americas starting around 1490, and become explorers and eventually colonizers in the Americas, trade with the Native Americans of the Pacific Northwest and the California coast could bring Asian trade goods and crops far inland by the time Europeans actually start to consider the Americas as a place for colonization, which could change things a whole lot.

 

[rfmcdonald]

I think that East Asian settlement on the Pacific coast of North America, perhaps a product of different people escaping East Asia with a suitable maritime technology, is probably more doable than the extension of East Asian states' territorial control to North America. The one has precedents in Southeast Asia, while the other was achieved in the premodern era only in reverse by a Spain intent on connecting New Spain to China.

 

[rfmcdonald]

I would also note that, if this is a timeline where East Asian states are active enough as naval and maritime and commercial powers to have large numbers of people of East Asian origin living on the far side of the Pacific, this is also going to be a timeline where Russia's expansion to the Pacific will be limited. The south of the Russia Far East may still eventually fall to Russia, depending on what happens in Manchuria, perhaps as far north perhaps as Magadan. If Japan particularly is a commercial power, however, the whole basin of the Sea of Okhotsk is much more accessible from Japan than from the Russian heartland, while the Kamchatka peninsula particularly is best treated as an island that Japan could surely take and keep.

 

[rfmcdonald]

Finally, I would note that this scenario makes China and Spain neighbours in two world regions, with a maritime border separating the Philippines from China and a land border separating Chinese California from Spanish Mexico. There is obvious potential for conflict.

 

[Arkenfolm]

First and foremost. You cannot replicate any of the European models, or at least you should not, because there are inherent differences in how government would work in the first place. The only example of early modern Japanese colonialism pre-Meiji was Hokkaido by the Kakizaki/Matsumae clan, which was done over a period of a few centuries, This clan was on the fringes of Japanese politics in every sense of the word, and it's expansion was limited to what the clan was willing and able to do. For any theoretical Japanese colonies in any kind of ATL Sengoku period, they are probably going to start off as some kind of feudal clan given the land or perhaps some kind of charter, similar to how some of the British colonies where chartered.

The Matsumae Domain was the final step of a nearly millennia-long quest for Japan to control and exert influence in the north, not the only example of Japanese colonialism since there's certainly elements of that in how they brought the Emishi of northern Honshu under their control in the 7th-9th centuries. Although since a colony is expensive, if you wanted to open up new lands for settlement in Japan it would be easier to just grab a bunch of workers and build irrigation and flood control. Especially since the Pacific Northwest is mostly dry in the summer (let alone California which is nigh-totally dry) which would require engineering around.

The biggest issue with East Asian colonies is they are going to be highly decentralized affairs where the central government to the extent one might exist in the case of Japan, or care in the case of China is going to be very slim outside of an occasional communique or trade regardless of any dynasty or 'naval revival'. Assuming you can even hash out a way to make these colonial ventures happen, you have to figure how they internally develop both the administration and borders because you are not going to get an xyz chunk of land as one clean administrative division. You could easily see all manner of towns, castle towns, or leagues of villages spring up in parallel authority to whatever claims to be head of the colonial authority.

Why would they not just name a single official to oversee the protectorate in North America and sort out who is allowed to claim what? This is what China did with their colonial lands in the north and what Japan did with Hokkaido for centuries and centuries.

I have got a question: could the date the East Asians discover the Americas be extended back farther? Because if the Chinese and the Japanese discover the Americas starting around 1490, and become explorers and eventually colonizers in the Americas, trade with the Native Americans of the Pacific Northwest and the California coast could bring Asian trade goods and crops far inland by the time Europeans actually start to consider the Americas as a place for colonization, which could change things a whole lot.

Trade goods yes, but not crops since that would require transplanting not just crops, but the entire system of East Asian agriculture. The West Coast ranges from dry to "almost no rainfall at all" during the summer, so requires irrigation. And the 16th century was largely dry in North America so agriculture was collapsing anyway along with civilisation itself when epidemics hit and wars broke out. I don't deny that some Indians might start farming like the various Pacific Northwest peoples did OTL by the early 19th century, but they'd probably be growing hardier crops like millet or buckwheat, and it would probably just be a supplement to their diet. For instance, IOTL the PNW Indians did not clear forest or fertilise their land when they grew potatoes, so their plots were limited in scope and productivity.

The big introduction would be horses, which were nearly as revolutionary in western North America as they were on the Plains and would completely reshape North America.

 

[omnidirectional]

European colonizers might try the Jesuit missionaries with fancy new weapons and maps/treaty ports seized at gunboat point approach on the Asian colonized west coast.

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

How would this affect Manifest Destiny in America? Seeing as how Americans at the time were desperate to settle the whole of America, having East Asian nations on the Pacific coast of America might give them pause and inspire America to take a kinder view to Native Americans.

 

[GameBawesome]

Hello there. I just wanted to thank everyone for their suggestions and insights. I took a lot of what you said into consideration and made a new map based off Crazy-Boris 1800 map of the world, and a QBAM of 1756 (As that was the only one that showed Native Americans in the West Coast)

There's a lot of things that changed. Some colonies got smaller, some bigger based of topography and geography. Here are the changes I made:

• Oda Japan colonized most of OTL BC, but not getting past the Coast Mountains. Meanwhile, they use the rivers to go further inland in the Cascades in OTL Washington and Oregon.
• China's colonization is more akin to the OTL kongsi republics in Borneo. So, they're more separate entities instead of a singular colony, but nominally under the vassalage of China.
• Both Japan and China originally used these for trading posts, Japan for furs and whaling stations, while Chinese adventurers to New Spain's silver. Later, they dump a huge number of settlers when they need to, and a majority of the time they intermingle with the Natives
• For the situation for Native Americans, Three major Native American confederations formed, two in California aligned with the Chinese and one aligned with Japan against the Blackfoot Confederacy. The Yokuts falls under Chinese influence, while the Nez Perce under Japanese. However, the Shoshone are a major player (Though not a unified entity; More like Apacheria or Comancheria)
• Russia colonizes some of Alaska for an attempt at the Fur trade, but not successful, due to the presence of the Japanese.
• The Hudson Bay Company expands further West to trade with the Japanese colonies, and compete for influence around OTL Fraser Canyon
• New Spain gets San Diego now instead of the Chinese as originally made.

What do you guys think? Is there any changes or recommendations that I should do? Does anyone want to take a swing at it, because I would be glad to see.

 

[WhatSantayanaSaid]

How would this affect Manifest Destiny in America? Seeing as how Americans at the time were desperate to settle the whole of America, having East Asian nations on the Pacific coast of America might give them pause and inspire America to take a kinder view to Native Americans.

Having French colonies to the north and west and Spanish colonies to the west didn't make the British colonists any kinder to the natives. The British made alliances, sure, but those lasted only as long as they were convenient, and the colonists wanted the natives' land regardless of European alliances (which was part of why the British restricted American settlement in the west, which was one of the grievances the colonists held against the British that eventually spiraled into armed rebellion and independence).

I have got a question: could the date the East Asians discover the Americas be extended back farther? Because if the Chinese and the Japanese discover the Americas starting around 1490, and become explorers and eventually colonizers in the Americas, trade with the Native Americans of the Pacific Northwest and the California coast could bring Asian trade goods and crops far inland by the time Europeans actually start to consider the Americas as a place for colonization, which could change things a whole lot.

The West Coast of the US doesn't really have easy routes into the rest of the continent. Past the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada, it's a lot of deserts, mountains, and other rugged and hostile terrain. The Colorado does provide one route in further, but there's a lot of desert to get there. And then it's the Rockies, then the Great Plains...

 

[Arkenfolm]

• Oda Japan colonized most of OTL BC, but not getting past the Coast Mountains. Meanwhile, they use the rivers to go further inland in the Cascades in OTL Washington and Oregon.
• China's colonization is more akin to the OTL kongsi republics in Borneo. So, they're more separate entities instead of a singular colony, but nominally under the vassalage of China.

I could see that, but I could also see an attempt to bring them under central control at some point if they prove troublesome to China's affairs.

• Both Japan and China originally used these for trading posts, Japan for furs and whaling stations, while Chinese adventurers to New Spain's silver. Later, they dump a huge number of settlers when they need to, and a majority of the time they intermingle with the Natives

When is "later?" Because Japan can dump a ton of settlers, especially in the ATL Edo Period when movement of peasants is restricted (so they go where their feudal overlord tells them), the population is rapidly expanding (population growth in Japan was depressed in the Sengoku era and fairly stagnant in the decades before it), and natural disasters are a problem (i.e. famines and volcanic eruptions). China can do the same since they always have land scarcity issues in one part of the country or another.

• For the situation for Native Americans, Three major Native American confederations formed, two in California aligned with the Chinese and one aligned with Japan against the Blackfoot Confederacy. The Yokuts falls under Chinese influence, while the Nez Perce under Japanese. However, the Shoshone are a major player (Though not a unified entity; More like Apacheria or Comancheria)

Nez Perce would probably be stronger since they had the best trading links to the west (as some of their bands frequently intermarried with Sahaptin tribes) and were great horse breeders. It's hard to say just what their political structure would look like since a lot of Plateau Indian culture is borrowed from Plains Indian culture (hence the war bonnets for instance), but here you'd have a unique culture of horse-mounted Plateau Indians predate Plains Indian culture.

California Indians were very decentralised, so they'd probably have something based on the Kuksu Society which were sets of religious cults active in poltiics found across the Central Valley that possibly with greater wealth and pressure from outsiders could have consolidated into something like the religious societies in Eastern North America which provided the backbone for several Indian Wars. OTL Kuksu never had that power since the natives were absolutely destroyed.

• Russia colonizes some of Alaska for an attempt at the Fur trade, but not successful, due to the presence of the Japanese.

Russian Alaska is straight up ASB since they have no power projection in the Pacific compared to a Japan interested in the north. They'd be lucky to keep any of their Pacific coast, and I'm sure one term of that deal would be to stay out of Japan's sphere of interest in Alaska (and probably everything east of Kamchatka). That's a VERY good deal for the Russians.

• The Hudson Bay Company expands further West to trade with the Japanese colonies, and compete for influence around OTL Fraser Canyon

That would take an absolute wank of Indians usually allied to HBC interests like the Iron Confederacy or TTL's Blackfoot, which I don't really see how it's possible. The Fraser Canyon was a trading site between nations, so nations on the northern end (and along the rivers which flow into it) would be allied with natives under Japanese control/the Japanese government themselves as trading partners. The HBC used mostly foreign Indians--their influence helped move the Plains Cree into British Columbia and they also had Metis, Iroquois, and others working for them. These would be perceived as competitors. It's also likely that the Iron Confederacy would be a lot weaker since a tribe on the western edge of the mountains would be supercharged by getting Japanese goods at an early date.

• New Spain gets San Diego now instead of the Chinese as originally made.

Makes sense.

The West Coast of the US doesn't really have easy routes into the rest of the continent. Past the Cascades and the Sierra Nevada, it's a lot of deserts, mountains, and other rugged and hostile terrain. The Colorado does provide one route in further, but there's a lot of desert to get there.

The Cascades weren't really an obstacle thanks to the Columbia River which forms a natural highway through the gorge. Although after 1450 (or so) it was choked with the eponymous Cascades rapids, all that did was add an additional portage site which prospered as native towns (if not to the degree of the larger set of rapids upstream at the Dalles and Celilo Falls). Native Americans as far inland as northern Idaho knew of the Pacific Ocean and products they acquired or traded for such as bison pelts were known at the towns of the mouth of the Columbia River.

The other passes were more precarious, but it is known the Molala people of Oregon lived on either side of the Cascades (although they were not numerous and probably poorer than their neighbours). As mentioned the Klamath people conducted slave raids over the southern Cascades, and passes in the north were used as the "grease trails" between coast and inland people--usually coastal peoples traded fish oil in exchange for copper or jade.

The latter I find very interesting and relevant to what the Japanese at least might do or want, since the main sort of oil was from eulichan (a sort of smelt). Trade in these small fish was a huge portion of Hokkaido's economy to the point they effectively held the Ainu as serfs to fish for them. Jade is of course a valuable trade good, and the high-quality copper (coastal Indians routinely refused copper goods offered by Europeans that were low-quality) might also be of interest. There is also some indication the Indians knew of gold, but rarely used it because it was culturally deemed inferior before they learned its value from whites.

 

[GameBawesome]

When is "later?" Because Japan can dump a ton of settlers, especially in the ATL Edo Period when movement of peasants is restricted (so they go where their feudal overlord tells them), the population is rapidly expanding (population growth in Japan was depressed in the Sengoku era and fairly stagnant in the decades before it), and natural disasters are a problem (i.e. famines and volcanic eruptions). China can do the same since they always have land scarcity issues in one part of the country or another.

I was thinking more about a decade or so for Japan to dump some settlers into their colonial trading project.

China on the other hand, maybe at least two or three decades, given like you suggested that they may later want to bring these American Kongsi under central control. Best analogy would be the Virginia Colony when it was founded by the Viriginia Company and then later England made it a Royal Colony

 

[GameBawesome]

Off topic, I have a question. Given that this is already highly improbably scenario, can I just double down a tiny bit and add a small Joseon Korean colony for flavor.

Now, I know it's highly unlikely for Korean colonization of America, given A) the Koreans are blocked by Oda Japan, B) Korean enclaves weren't really a thing till the 19th century, compared Nihonmachis and Chinatowns. (If someone was going say "Koreans didn't have the naval presence in the 17th century to do so.... You're right, but this is an alternate timeline where China and Oda Japan revitalize East Asian maritime activities, so might as well add the Koreans).

Best excuse I could do is a bunch of Korean adventurers or hired artisans hitched a ride with the Chinese or even Japanese and ditch them to settle a small colony (Nothing large; Maybe a small-town settlement or enclave within one territories) to make money off of silver trade with New Spain, or the trading with Natives for Korean crafts for timber, furs, jade, or set up a town for whaling and fishing.

 

[Arkenfolm]

I was thinking more about a decade or so for Japan to dump some settlers into their colonial trading project.

China on the other hand, maybe at least two or three decades, given like you suggested that they may later want to bring these American Kongsi under central control. Best analogy would be the Virginia Colony when it was founded by the Viriginia Company and then later England made it a Royal Colony

If you have even minimal interest in settler colonies like France did, the population will jump enormously. Settler colonies historically had higher fertility than the mother country because farmers needed lots of children to clear land. New England for instance had rapid population growth solely because of this despite being a net exporter of emigrants to England for most of the 17th century. That such a similar population growth didn't happen in Hokkaido in the parts the Edo Shogunate considered "Wajinchi" (Japanese ruled) is probably because the Matsumae Domain was heavily slanted toward trade with the Ainu and because that area is very mountainous and rugged even by Japan's standards. Farming rice was forbidden among the Ainu and discouraged among the Japanese (since Matsumae Domain was exempted from producing rice).

I can't find the exact numbers, but the total population of Hokkaido was around 50,000 in the 1860s--I'm not sure how many were Japanese and how many were Ainu, but the latter population was rapidly dropping because of epidemics and intermarriage with Japanese. Oshima Province, with practically all the Japanese on the island, was said to have 72,000 Japanese in 1872. Oshima Province was around 4,000 km2--one look at the West Coast shows a variety of places with similar topography like southern Vancouver Island, the mouth of the Columbia River, and to a degree southern Alaska (can't farm rice anywhere beyond 50-51 degrees latitude on the West Coast, but crops like millet the Ainu and Japanese of Matsumae Domain grew would work). And most of the Puget Sound coast and Willamette Valley are amply fertile and geologically similar to large floodplains in Japan (i.e. the Tone River) so simply need flood control to start producing food.

Off topic, I have a question. Given that this is already highly improbably scenario, can I just double down a tiny bit and add a small Joseon Korean colony for flavor.

Now, I know it's highly unlikely for Korean colonization of America, given A) the Koreans are blocked by Oda Japan, B) Korean enclaves weren't really a thing till the 19th century, compared Nihonmachis and Chinatowns. (If someone was going say "Koreans didn't have the naval presence in the 17th century to do so.... You're right, but this is an alternate timeline where China and Oda Japan revitalize East Asian maritime activities, so might as well add the Koreans).

Best excuse I could do is a bunch of Korean adventurers or hired artisans hitched a ride with the Chinese or even Japanese and ditch them to settle a small colony (Nothing large; Maybe a small-town settlement or enclave within one territories) to make money off of silver trade with New Spain, or the trading with Natives for Korean crafts for timber, furs, jade, or set up a town for whaling and fishing.

Then it wouldn't be a Korean colony, it would just be a Korean settlement that would get absorbed into its sponsor, especially since in all likelihood Korea's elite would deem it illegal.