AH Challenger: Great Power Italy by 1940

ZachScape

I need help with a mini TL I'm writing: I'll try not too leak out too many specifics:

With a POD no earlier than 1895, make Italy's power on par with OTL France 1939.

Rules & Boundaries:
-Must be diplomatically, economically, and militarily independent from Germany by 1940.
-France is recovering from a devastating war with Germany (1910s) in which Italy was not involved
-Russia is politically unstable

Bonus Points:
-Significant role of media
-Italian intervention in the Balkans before 1910.
 

Deleted member 1487

ZachScape said:
I need help with a mini TL I'm writing: I'll try not too leak out too many specifics:

With a POD no earlier than 1895, make Italy's power on par with OTL France 1939.

Rules & Boundaries:
-Must be diplomatically, economically, and militarily independent from Germany by 1940.
-France is recovering from a devastating war with Germany (1910s) in which Italy was not involved
-Russia is politically unstable

Bonus Points:
-Significant role of media
-Italian intervention in the Balkans before 1910.
Click to expand...


I'll take a stab at it. Italy stays out of WW1, Entente loses. Without Italy pressuring Austria-Hungary, the AHs can use all their strength against Russia in1915 and 1916, which prevents the Brusilov offensive, meaning Germany doesn't need to divert troops to the East and Romania doesn't enter the war. Falkenhayn survives in high command and continues part of the Verdun offensive. The French are unable to completely take back all their territorial losses there. Romania enters into the war on the CP side in 1917, selling them grain and oil, which historically they were unable to extract from invading it. Eastern Front goes quiet thanks to so many more CP forces surviving 1916 and Romania overrunning the Russianns and forces used in the Caporetto offensive instead are part of an attack against the French. They lose heavily during the mutinies and the Germans are able to get the French to negotiate. France dissolves in revolution like in 1871, allowing the CPs to take advantage of the situation.

Italy gets rich off of trading with Austria-Hungary and Germany, perhaps gets Tunisia thrown in for helping out. France is wrecked economically due to the crushing peace, Italy takes advantage in North Africa, perhaps buys Corsica or invades France to take advantage of the situation. Everyone is too weak to do anything about it or really care. On a roll, Italy then finishes off Albania (assuming Austria-Hungary is too weak to intervene) and Greece, another loser in the wake of WW1. Having an empire finally, and with a weak France, Italy is now the major power in mediterranean capitalizing on trade in the region. Economically expansive and likely to still intervene in Spain assuming they still have their civil war,further expanding their influence.
 

ZachScape

wiking said:
I'll take a stab at it.
Click to expand...
That was really good. Just some questions:

wiking said:
Italy gets rich off of trading with Austria-Hungary and Germany, perhaps gets Tunisia thrown in for helping out. France is wrecked economically due to the crushing peace, Italy takes advantage in North Africa, perhaps buys Corsica...
Click to expand...
-Can Italy make a significant amount of money selling primarily to France and Germany?
-How plausible is it that France sells Italy Corsica, Tunisia and/or Nice?


wiking said:
...and with a weak France, Italy is now the major power in mediterranean capitalizing on trade in the region.
Click to expand...

What if Britain is still in the picture?
 

Deleted member 1487

ZachScape said:
Just some questions:

-Can Italy make a significant amount of money selling primarily to France and Germany?
-How plausible is it that France sells Italy Corsica, Tunisia and/or Nice?

What if Britain is still in the picture?
Click to expand...

Yes, especially if Italy cuts a deal to allow migrant labor to France to replace French men in industry. Economic concession in Tunisia are possible too if the Italians play their cards right. Admittedly, Italy buying land off of France is far fetched. However, gaining unredeemed Italian parts of AH isn't if Italy offers something with her demands. Trade with the CPs would have to be clandestine though.
 

DaleCoz

Waiting to get into WW1 might help

Italy would definitely have been better off not getting involved in World War I when it did. The army wasn't ready and they burned off a lot of manpower without accomplishing much. I'm not sure that staying out entirely or siding with the central powers would be the best course though. Make the Allies squirm an extra six months to a year and get something concrete in return, maybe Tunisia or the British and French parts of Somalia. Does that give the CP a chance to knock out the Allies? That's a risk.

There is a fundamental problem with all of this though. Italy didn't have much of what it took to be great power in the 1930s or 40s. It didn't have a lot of coal. It had almost no oil except for the unknown deposits in Libya. Iron? Nope. Not enough to be a great power. A well-educated population would help, but Italy had a long ways to go to get to that. And there was nothing they could have feasibly seized that would have given them the things their economy needed.
 

schrammy

something like this?

italy doesn't enter ww1 but basicaly accepts an CP favored nautrality
AH does alote better against russia without haveing to gaurd against italy
and germany doesn't need to help them out, this in turn to russia eventualy bowing out earlyer.
when ww1 ends italy is rewarded/repaid for its support to the CP and the loans to them and because the cp wants france weakend asmuch as possible, and they give italy all there claims against france.

altough it did alote better in WW1 and actualy won the victory is a hollow one for AH, as the reforms fail and it breaksup trough revulotion.
germany,italy step in and they devide the austrian lands between them and the new hungarian state, italy gains all its claims from AH inclouding dalmatia.

even tough russia bowed out earlyer the red revolution still happens altough without lenin, this gives the soviets
less support and the reds and whites are more evenly matched makeing for a longer civilwar in russia.

after ww1 and the events that followed being verry much in its favor italy becomes more and more democratic end eventualy
has somewhat of a fallout with gemany not enough for it to drop from the CP newly created customs union or its deffensive alliance
but enough for it to look for friends else where.

It finds this friend in the USA, together with its new friend the USA it develops its libian oil fields by 1936-1938.
 
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