AH Challenge: PRC and RoC switch places
- Thread starter Baskilisk
- Start date
General Zod
Banned
Plausible with the right PoD but a remnant PRC would never take refuge on Taiwan, a part fo the country where they had little backing, where the USN can starve them at its leisure. That would be ASB.
They would hole up in Manchuria, which was their stronghold past 1945 and close to their Soviet sponsor. So you would have a second, buffed-up North Korea in the form of the Manchurian PRC, and a capitalist RoC, and China on its way to become an economic superpower a generation in advance (1948 vs. OTL Dengs's start of liberalizations in 1978) and completely friendly to the West.
This would come the dynamics of the Cold War a big way. The US would feel much more bold by having mainland China on their side. North Vietnam is easily crushed by the French without Mao backing them. North Korea either never dares invading the South, or it does and the US easily invade and crush them without the whole Communist mainland China backing them. If the Manchurian PRC would intervene, it would be easily crushed by the US Army just as well.
I Blame Communism
Banned
I agree with GZ: IIRC, the Soviets began to establish a Red government in Manchuria after the invasion with the intent of forcing a de-facto split just as in Korea and Germany, Chiang made the biggest gamble of his life and decided to crush it, and ended up on the run. Taiwan was under Japanese control at the time of unconditional surrender and therefore comes under brief US control. Commies fleeing there? Not likely.
We need a PoD which changes the nature of Taiwan. I believe some Japanese politicians were dubious about permenant colonies in 1895 and wanted to sell it to France?
What of butterflies? Hmmm. I may be wrong, but I can't think of any big ones immediately. The problems of China have been highlighted by military defeat and territorial loss just as much. Japanese colonial attitudes and politics may change, but that's not my field. Assuming very minimal butterflies, which may not be true, the Pacific War as we know it can still come about if the Japanese grab Taiwan from the French at the same time as Indochina.
We need a PoD which changes the nature of Taiwan. I believe some Japanese politicians were dubious about permenant colonies in 1895 and wanted to sell it to France?
What of butterflies? Hmmm. I may be wrong, but I can't think of any big ones immediately. The problems of China have been highlighted by military defeat and territorial loss just as much. Japanese colonial attitudes and politics may change, but that's not my field. Assuming very minimal butterflies, which may not be true, the Pacific War as we know it can still come about if the Japanese grab Taiwan from the French at the same time as Indochina.
