AH Challenge: Hawaii and Puerto Rico switch fates

Baskilisk

Banned
I know it's possible, so I'm not going to say "Is there any way that..."
So, what's the best, most probable way (PoD post-civil war) to have Puerto Rico become a fully-American state before 1960, and Hawaii as a commonwealth vying for statehood/independance/status quo in 2009?
(Double Adverb Alert) Also, a probably considerably easier challenge I thought about: WI Cuba and Hawaii switch fates, which I think is actually a more probable outcome than OTL, actually.
 

zoomar

First, change the strategic importance of the two territories and the rates of mainlander settlement.

Hawaii (Pearl Harbor) became essential to the US Navy by 1930 as the potential conflict with Japan increased. Coupled with the strategic importance of the territory to the US, high rates of mainlander settlement created - on Oahu at least - a territory which was perceived as primarily "American", although with an exotic ethnic history and mix...kind of an aquatic New Mexico. Puerto Rico (and even more Cuba) were essentially Hispanic from elites on down, and had far less strategic importance to the US even though they were much closer. Further, Hawaii was just so dang nice.

Short of having the USA not annex Hawaii in the late 1800's, I have a hard time seeing such a switch happen. In may ways, I think the best US Latin American territory or protectorate to switch places with Hawaii would have been the US Canal Zone (or Panama itself). Like Pearl Harbor, the Panama Canal was of vital strategic importance to the US in the early 20th century - and had a large anglo-american population who were culturally north american. Change a few things with respect to the size of the zone and the treaty arrangements giving the US the canal, I could easily see a 50th State evolving from the US Canal Zone.
 

David S Poepoe

Banned
Hawaii, and Pearl Harbor, were recognized as essential to the US Navy as early as 1873.

Hawaii probably could have been a commonwealth of the US if there had not been a drive for territorial status in the early 1900s. Another possibility is that Hawaii technically qualified as a 'colonial' possession under some UN charter regarding indigenous peoples which could have seen them decolonized.
 
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