...Gulf of Sidra/Sirte that is.
With the current events in Libya I decided to see if any threads from the past had discussed the 1986 or 1989 tensions between the US and Libya exploding into an actual war. I only found one:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=129834
The consensus there is that Gaddafi would have to go batshit insane for this to happen.
However, what if there was no invasion of Libya, but still a war?
The most likely time seems to have been spring/summer 1986 as a lot of stuff happened then:
1. In February the French bombed the Libyan airbase of Ouadi Doum in northern Chad following Libyan violation of the 1984 accord which should have seen the disengagement of Libya and France from Chad. (funny isn't it how the French always seem to go into Libya first....)
2. The US Navy's Sixth Fleet conducted a Freedom of Navigation operation in the Gulf of Sidra in March and an incident developed in late March resulting in a number of Libyan ships being sunk and SAM sites being hit.
3. Libya then bombed partying GIs in West Berlin in early April. Reagan then disciplined Gaddafi with a couple of days of airstrikes (also in early April)
So, how could these 3 events end up rolling into each other and then develop into a larger, but still limited war?
My first thoughts were that the Libyan Tu-22 raid on the airport of N'Djamena (Chad's capital), done in retaliation for the French bombing of the Libyan base, causes more damage and results in France expanding it's bombing to Libya and that the March incident in the Gulf continues into April, whilst the Berlin bombing is deadlier. Does anyone think this would be enough to have an unofficial Franco-American bombing campaign of Libya and naval action? Any other ideas which could result in this 1986 Gulf (of Sidra) War?
EDIT: Here is some more food for thought: Reagan approved a directive in early 1986 which would see the US supporting an Egyptian "pre-emptive" attack on Libya aimed a specific Libyan threat to Egypt. With Egypt being at peace with Israel and some issues (and bad blood) possibly remaining unresolved from the 1977 Libyan-Egyptian War (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan–Egyptian_War) this could well be a Franco-Egypto-American campaign....hmm..."The 1986 Egyptian Invasion of Libya"?
With the current events in Libya I decided to see if any threads from the past had discussed the 1986 or 1989 tensions between the US and Libya exploding into an actual war. I only found one:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=129834
The consensus there is that Gaddafi would have to go batshit insane for this to happen.
However, what if there was no invasion of Libya, but still a war?
The most likely time seems to have been spring/summer 1986 as a lot of stuff happened then:
1. In February the French bombed the Libyan airbase of Ouadi Doum in northern Chad following Libyan violation of the 1984 accord which should have seen the disengagement of Libya and France from Chad. (funny isn't it how the French always seem to go into Libya first....)
2. The US Navy's Sixth Fleet conducted a Freedom of Navigation operation in the Gulf of Sidra in March and an incident developed in late March resulting in a number of Libyan ships being sunk and SAM sites being hit.
3. Libya then bombed partying GIs in West Berlin in early April. Reagan then disciplined Gaddafi with a couple of days of airstrikes (also in early April)
So, how could these 3 events end up rolling into each other and then develop into a larger, but still limited war?
My first thoughts were that the Libyan Tu-22 raid on the airport of N'Djamena (Chad's capital), done in retaliation for the French bombing of the Libyan base, causes more damage and results in France expanding it's bombing to Libya and that the March incident in the Gulf continues into April, whilst the Berlin bombing is deadlier. Does anyone think this would be enough to have an unofficial Franco-American bombing campaign of Libya and naval action? Any other ideas which could result in this 1986 Gulf (of Sidra) War?
EDIT: Here is some more food for thought: Reagan approved a directive in early 1986 which would see the US supporting an Egyptian "pre-emptive" attack on Libya aimed a specific Libyan threat to Egypt. With Egypt being at peace with Israel and some issues (and bad blood) possibly remaining unresolved from the 1977 Libyan-Egyptian War (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan–Egyptian_War) this could well be a Franco-Egypto-American campaign....hmm..."The 1986 Egyptian Invasion of Libya"?
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