Aftermath of a Chinese Conquest of Japan ~1598 AD after Imjin War?

[Sarthak]

In 1597 AD, the Chinese Emperor, Wanli discussed a theoretical invasion of Japan if the Japanese did not cease in their attempt of taking Korea and entering Mainland Asia. The Ming had the ships to do so, and alongside the Koreans, the manpower to do so. Furthermore, as Japanese and Toyotomi Prestige declined, the Shimazu, Otomo and Ryuzi Clans openly called for aiding a Chinese invasion if it happened. For the sake of the scenario, let's handwave the problems and say that Toyotomi Hideyoshi does not die in 1598 and continues to try and take Korea, forcing China to finalize its plans to invade Japan with Korean aid. From 1598-99 Chinese/Korean troops land in Japan, and with aid from pro-Chinese clans and Daimyos (like the Southern Shimazu), conquers Japan. What would be the aftermath of such an event? In my opinion, China would not *annex* any land if at all (perhaps barring giving Tsushima to Korea) and restoring Ryukyu Independence, but I think that the restoration of Japanese Imperial Authority under a Chinese Puppet Emperor would take place. What would be the ramifications of this? Clans that showed increasingly anti-Toyotomi and pro-Chinese sentiments in Japan at the time were:-
1. Southern Shimazu
2. Ryuzi
3. North Otomo
4. Some branches of the Uesegi
5. Amago
6. Asakura.

 

[The Lone Ronin]

Not only would Japan be playing second fiddle here but China would remain the dominant power in Asia at least for a while and strength it's grip over the Land of the Rising Sun and especially Korea since it was a tributary state at the time. The samurai class in Japan would be significantly affected by a successful Chinese conquest since they would probably be disarmed given their participation in the Imjin War or worse completely disbanded. As for isolationism, Japan was already receiving foreign visitors from Portugal and Spain before England and the Netherlands came in the 1600s so William Adams would be caught up in the chaos of China and it's allies overthrowing the Toyotomi clan and he might not even become influential at least not to the same extent.

The last time that a foreign power (Mongol Empire) tried to conquer Japan, it ended in failure thanks to not just the tsunami that sunk a significant portion of the fleet but also because of the fact that they were on a large archipelago island and faced stiff resistance from the local clans. The scenario you describe avoid the pitfalls that plagued the Mongols since the Ming have allies within Japan who would help them take over.

 

[WhatSantayanaSaid]

Not only would Japan be playing second fiddle here but China would remain the dominant power in Asia at least for a while and strength it's grip over the Land of the Rising Sun and especially Korea since it was a tributary state at the time. The samurai class in Japan would be significantly affected by a successful Chinese conquest since they would probably be disarmed given their participation in the Imjin War or worse completely disbanded. As for isolationism, Japan was already receiving foreign visitors from Portugal and Spain before England and the Netherlands came in the 1600s so William Adams would be caught up in the chaos of China and it's allies overthrowing the Toyotomi clan and he might not even become influential at least not to the same extent.

The last time that a foreign power (Mongol Empire) tried to conquer Japan, it ended in failure thanks to not just the tsunami that sunk a significant portion of the fleet but also because of the fact that they were on a large archipelago island and faced stiff resistance from the local clans. The scenario you describe avoid the pitfalls that plagued the Mongols since the Ming have allies within Japan who would help them take over.

The Ming didn't really have the funds to embark on such an expedition. The OTL Imjin War was breaking their bank to begin with and the infrastructure + food situation in Korea was quite dire for years after the war. If anything, this would destabilize both the Ming and Joseon since they're expending manpower and funds they desperately need for other purposes (putting down rebellions, feeding the populace).

Worst of all for the Ming and Joseon is the fact that Nurhaci is going to have a much easier time rolling over both, since there will be far less resistance against him and far more dissent against Beijing and Hanseong.

What could also happen is the return of the vast number of Korean artisans who were abducted during the war. Tens of thousands were taken, entire schools of ceramics moved to Japan, and the war was nicknamed the Pottery War, IIRC. That would change both Korean and Japanese ceramics in a huge way and economics in a smaller way.

But yeah, due to the above, any attempts by the Ming to dominate Japan politically will be short-lived and a puppet regime is going to quickly cut ties with their mainland benefactors or be overthrown. The puppet regime is going to have a hard time reigning in the daimyo and so can't help the Chinese when the Manchu roll in while it also won't be able to count on Chinese help against the daimyo.

Also, Ryukyu didn't get invaded until 1609, so it'll avoid the Japanese invasion, most likely.