After Axis victory (no US or Soviet intervention), how would Britain fare ?

[skarosianlifeform]

Without worrying about the specifics, let's say Nazi Germany decided to focus on Britain first, and renounced Barbarosssa. Maybe Hitler had slightly different ideas, or he died and was replaced, or the Soviets put a better show in Finland and prepared better...

The reason doesn't matter much here, what matters is Soviet Union remained neutral (while trading with Germany).

Nazi Germany focused on

• Strategic bombing of Britain
• Libyan campaign (strong support, in exchange for Italy not attacking Greece)
• Support to Iraqi rebels and French forces in Syria

Nazi Germany also took advantage of Mers-el-Kébir attack to offer lenient peace terms to France, in return for joining the war. Which opened new fronts in Africa.

France sold Indochina to Japan, legally, which displeased the USA but they couldn't do much over a perfectly legal sale.

So, the IJA and IJN could use Indochina and Siam (ally) as a staging point. Then, Japan launched an invasion of the DEI, Malaya and Myanmar, from Indochina, without declaring war on the USA.

Seeing how things were going, Franco finally joined the Axis.

The result is

• Loss of Malta and Gibraltar
• Loss of Egypt and Palestine / Jordan
• Loss of Iraq
• Loss of DEI, Malaya and Myanmar
• Britain lifts sanctions over Japan, ceases support to China, and acknowledges Nanking government
• Britain acknowledges German control of Europe, and gives a free hand to Italy in the Balkans

After such a defeat, how would Britain fare ? Politically, economically, culturally...

 

[GDIS Pathe]

None of this would ever happen

 

[Citycat]

You would need a fundamentally different regime from the Nazis for this strategy, which would probably butterfly away WWII itself.

For the US not to support the UK, you would need a POD going back to the 1890s, since US and UK interests were pretty much aligned in the North Atlantic by this stage, despite US neutrality.

And as long as the USSR exists, even if it is not at war with Germany, the potential threat remains, which both the Soviets and British will exploit for their own benefit, which means Germany won't be able to focus 100% on the UK.

 

[skarosianlifeform]

The USA supported the UK, but didn't join the war.

Germany had to guard her eastern border / empire against potential Soviet threat, but was still much stronger in North Africa and the BoB. It was a big risk (Stalin could have backstabbed the Germans at least in theory) but they took it.

Of course, less US material support, no US Army in Maghreb, no USAF bombing Germany, and no Eastern Front did wonders for German success.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Without worrying about the specifics, let's say Nazi Germany decided to focus on Britain first, and renounced Barbarosssa. Maybe Hitler had slightly different ideas, or he died and was replaced, or the Soviets put a better show in Finland and prepared better...

The reason doesn't matter much here, what matters is Soviet Union remained neutral (while trading with Germany).

So Hitler isn't Hitler and decides that crushing Britain is better than taking care of the people standing in the way of Lebensraum

Nazi Germany focused on

• Strategic bombing of Britain
• Libyan campaign (strong support, in exchange for Italy not attacking Greece)
• Support to Iraqi rebels and French forces in Syria

1. Just gets you less steel for Panzers and more German farmers in Canada

2. So Italy needs help dealing with the British when they outnumber them 10-1 really?

3. How?

Nazi Germany also took advantage of Mers-el-Kébir attack to offer lenient peace terms to France, in return for joining the war. Which opened new fronts in Africa.

Uhm why?

France sold Indochina to Japan, legally, which displeased the USA but they couldn't do much over a perfectly legal sale.

Why?

So, the IJA and IJN could use Indochina and Siam (ally) as a staging point. Then, Japan launched an invasion of the DEI, Malaya and Myanmar, from Indochina, without declaring war on the USA.

So the Imperial Navy and Army decide having the Philipines sitting straight on their supply lines to the oil fields in Borneo is a good idea color me skeptical

Seeing how things were going, Franco finally joined the Axis.

So Spain starves

The result is

• Loss of Malta and Gibraltar
• Loss of Egypt and Palestine / Jordan
• Loss of Iraq
• Loss of DEI, Malaya and Myanmar
• Britain lifts sanctions over Japan, ceases support to China, and acknowledges Nanking government
• Britain acknowledges German control of Europe, and gives a free hand to Italy in the Balkans

After such a defeat, how would Britain fare ? Politically, economically, culturally...

It wouldn't fare anything because none of the above would've happened

 

[Marquis]

The Royal Navy practices the time-honoured tradition of leaving the enemy's battlefleet and their merchant shipping at the bottom of the ocean. Seriously, in a couple of years in the Mediterranean, the Axis lost TWO MILLION tons of merchant shipping, 111 warships, 159 submarines, and the Italians alone lost some 27,000 sailors. Bombing at any length is not possible as radar nightfighter Beaufighters and Mosquitoes come online.

Axis merchant shipping devastated.
Axis warships brushed aside by massed destroyer/cruiser fleets.
Bombing of Great Britain results in catastrophic unsustainable losses of bombers to day fighters and night fighters.
Counter strikes on tactical and strategic targets by Mosquito bombers.
German forces (assuming no successful Alameins) bog down at the Nile as British armour sit on their short supply train with Iraqi oil coming in (Iraq rebellion ain't gonna work).
Gibraltar remains covering the straits (Franco isn't that stupid to attack the Rock, it would bleed his forces white in the process).
Potentially, depending on when this happens, British oil starts flowing to Japan in exchange for armaments.

 

[Citycat]

The Royal Navy practices the time-honoured tradition of leaving the enemy's battlefleet and their merchant shipping at the bottom of the ocean. Seriously, in a couple of years in the Mediterranean, the Axis lost TWO MILLION tons of merchant shipping, 111 warships, 159 submarines, and the Italians alone lost some 27,000 sailors. Bombing at any length is not possible as radar nightfighter Beaufighters and Mosquitoes come online.

Axis merchant shipping devastated.
Axis warships brushed aside by massed destroyer/cruiser fleets.
Bombing of Great Britain results in catastrophic unsustainable losses of bombers to day fighters and night fighters.
Counter strikes on tactical and strategic targets by Mosquito bombers.
German forces (assuming no successful Alameins) bog down at the Nile as British armour sit on their short supply train with Iraqi oil coming in (Iraq rebellion ain't gonna work).
Gibraltar remains covering the straits (Franco isn't that stupid to attack the Rock, it would bleed his forces white in the process).
Potentially, depending on when this happens, British oil starts flowing to Japan in exchange for armaments.

And all this with a neutral USSR, quietly building up its industry and forces (probably with British funds and tech that would have went to the US in OTL), and able to cut off supplies and strike at Germany at any time. Germany following the OP's strategy ITTL does worse than Hitler in OTL.