About NHISA Nothing Happens In South America

[Armot]

I am Paraguayan, so I can post some ideas that can help you for avoid the cliche NHISA:

-Paraguay join to the May Revolution in 1810.
-Doctor Francia is overthrown via coup by Fulgencio Yegros, who aligned Paraguay with Argentine Federalism.
-Paraguay loses Chaco, it is annexed by Argentina. This has an interesting consequence: the Chaco War is between Bolivia and Argentina, it is highly probable the Argentina victory with total annexation of Chaco (IOTL Paraguay left a small portion of it for Bolivia, incluiding access to Paraguay river).

The third is really important, because I see in many ATL's that Paraguay always has the Chaco with the same border. So yes, it can be worse for Paraguay in the Paraguayan War.

I don't know if other South American members of the forum want to help with common cliches of South American Alternate History.

 

[Deleted member 14881]

Is it possible for Paraguay to be partitioned after the War of the Triple Alliance?

 

[Armot]

Yes, it not impossible see Paraguay being partitionated. All to the east of Paraguay river for Brazil and Chaco for Argentina.

In colonial times, Buenos Aires claimed both banks of Parana river, because Bs As said that the Jesuit territories were under their rule. Then, can be Argentinian claims when Brazil annexed Paraguay's east region.

The Misiones were partitioned between Paraguay and Argentina in 1857. The treaty was not ratified by both Congress.

Edit: but if Paraguay is partitionated, who will pay the debt war?

 

[Jonathan Edelstein]

-Doctor Francia is overthrown via coup by Fulgencio Yegros, who aligned Paraguay with Argentine Federalism.

Argentina was more an abstraction than a nation at this point, so Paraguay might become a feudal province within the Argentine confederation, and eventually be absorbed when Argentina becomes a real state.

What would Yegros' attitude have been toward Rosas? Also, would he have followed a policy of industrial development like Francia, or would his Paraguay look more like 19th-century Bolivia?

Another possibility is Yegros and Francia never parting ways - if the two-member consulate had continued, would it have made the republic more stable and prevented the extremes of the Lopez family? Maybe Francisco Solano Lopez might have avoided the Triple Alliance war if there had been another consul to keep him in check. This would still be a very oligarchic arrangement - the consuls would probably all come from a couple of families during the 19th century - but maybe one that would lead to Paraguay continuing to modernize rather than being destroyed.

 

[Nivek]

How would be No Triple alliance wars? that was a ruse against paraguay via jealous both Argentina and Brazil if Paraguay can negotiated a proper sea acess how thing will be?

 

[Armot]

Argentina was more an abstraction than a nation at this point, so Paraguay might become a feudal province within the Argentine confederation, and eventually be absorbed when Argentina becomes a real state.

That.

What would Yegros' attitude have been toward Rosas? Also, would he have followed a policy of industrial development like Francia, or would his Paraguay look more like 19th-century Bolivia?

Yegros was anti-Rosas, in fact, he and the other "proceres de Mayo" were liberals in the Latin American sense, like Mitre, or Reagan in USA. Yegros probably will follow a complacent policy with landowners and big farmers, so no industrial development.

Another possibility is Yegros and Francia never parting ways - if the two-member consulate had continued, would it have made the republic more stable and prevented the extremes of the Lopez family? Maybe Francisco Solano Lopez might have avoided the Triple Alliance war if there had been another consul to keep him in check. This would still be a very oligarchic arrangement - the consuls would probably all come from a couple of families during the 19th century - but maybe one that would lead to Paraguay continuing to modernize rather than being destroyed.

The Triple Alliance war is evitable if Carlos Antonio Lopez does not inherit the throne to Commodus, sorry, Solano Lopez.

About continuing with the consulate, maybe Paraguay would be a banana republic without the help of the Triple Alliance.

 

[Armot]

How would be No Triple alliance wars? that was a ruse against paraguay via jealous both Argentina and Brazil if Paraguay can negotiated a proper sea acess how thing will be?

In fact, there wasn't an Argentina like a nation-state, as Jonathan said. There were federalists in all the Plata Basin (present Argentines provinces, Uruguay, Paraguay and South Brazil) and centralist Buenos Aires and Brazil Empire, three sides that are in constant war and alliances like the three state world of Orwell. Brazil want to absorb Paraguay as was re-absorbed Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul and Buenos Aires want to rebuild the Virreinato.

Paraguay didn't want a sea access. Francisco Solano Lopez declared war for saving the blancos (federalists of Uruguay) against the colorados (centralists of Uruguay), because he wanted to leave the isolation, and he left it. But Lopez left the isolation when the federalist were almost defeated.

 

[Armot]

If no triple alliance war, Paraguay will left the aristocratic republicanism at the beginning of 20 centhury and become a banana republic, but hey, we will have Matto Grosso do Sul!

 

[Jonathan Edelstein]

Yegros was anti-Rosas, in fact, he and the other "proceres de Mayo" were liberals in the Latin American sense, like Mitre, or Reagan in USA.

So he would be part of the anti-Rosas coalition and, eventually, a big deal in Argentine federal politics. Could he go all the way and become the Argentine leader?

What would happen to the Guarani language in this situation - would it still be spoken or would being part of Argentina make Spanish the standard for everyone? How many of the Guarani would move to Buenos Aires to find jobs?

Yegros probably will follow a complacent policy with landowners and big farmers, so no industrial development.

What would it take to get Francia's industrial policy to continue - would Francia need to have a less, er, unusual attitude toward women, leading to marriage and a legitimate son? How industrialized could Paraguay get in the 19th century?

The Triple Alliance war is evitable if Carlos Antonio Lopez does not inherit the throne to Commodus, sorry, Solano Lopez.

Hmmm, not sure I'd compare Carlos Antonio to Marcus Aurelius.

BTW, I hadn't realized that "nothing happens in South America" was a catchphrase.

 

[Codae]

BTW, I hadn't realized that "nothing happens in South America" was a catchphrase.

It does have a longstanding wiki page.

 

[unprincipled peter]

my understanding of Paraguay is that they mostly wanted to be left alone. They were always an isolated part of the spanish dominion, and when things fell apart in Spain, they wisely saw that nothing good would come for them if they joined with the Argentine provinces. Thus, they declared independence from Spain AND Argentina (which, as already stated, was somewhere between independence and a sort of autonomous group of provinces fighting it out between federalism and centralism).

Doing something about Francia completely changes Paraguay twice. First, it's hard to come up with a scenario where they go so completely isolationalist, completely changing the makeup of society from your typical south american 1% rich/99% peasant into a nation of small farmers/businessmen. In all likelihood, sans Francia, Paraguay remains another feudalistic society with a neverending cycle of dictators and revolutions. Think Uruguay from 1830-1860, except without the outside influences. The second change is that radically changing the Francia OTL years most likely butterflies away the Lopez dynasties, which in turn butterflies away the War of the Triple Alliance, which in turn has dramatic impact on the progression of Brazil, and of course half the Paraguayan population is still alive.

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

Is it possible for Paraguay to be partitioned after the War of the Triple Alliance?

IIRC, Argentina did ask for all of Paraguay west of the Paraguay River(don't know how serious was that). If they got that, Brazil would have annexed the rest.

 

[juanml82]

I am Paraguayan, so I can post some ideas that can help you for avoid the cliche NHISA:

-Paraguay join to the May Revolution in 1810.

But they still join the United Provinces instead of going their own way? I could see them allying with Artigas against Buenos Aires. The additional manpower could cause the Directors and the semblance of a national wide government to collapse earlier, by 1819 or maybe 1818 instead of 1820.
And then Paraguay would be immersed in the decades long civil wars. There won't be a War of the Triple Alliance, of course, and Francia is likely to steer his province in a better direction than the Argentine northern provinces, so it might eventually turn into the richest of them.
It does provide an additional angle of attack against Brazil in the Argentina-Brazilian war, if the Paraguayans are inclined to take the Matto Grosso. It doesn't prevent, of course, the Brazilian blockade of the River Plate, but it would have important butterflies in that war's outcome, maybe negating Uruguay's independence (and setting the seeds for a second Argentine-Brazilian war if the Brazilians feel confident in the future)

In fact, there wasn't an Argentina like a nation-state, as Jonathan said. There were federalists in all the Plata Basin (present Argentines provinces, Uruguay, Paraguay and South Brazil) and centralist Buenos Aires and Brazil Empire, three sides that are in constant war and alliances like the three state world of Orwell. Brazil want to absorb Paraguay as was re-absorbed Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul and Buenos Aires want to rebuild the Virreinato.

Well, not that much. Rosas, IIRC, never recognized Paraguay's independence, but Rivadavia made no effort to keep Bolivia and I don't think too many businessmen from Buenos Aires disliked Uruguay getting independence.

 

[Armot]

So he would be part of the anti-Rosas coalition and, eventually, a big deal in Argentine federal politics. Could he go all the way and become the Argentine leader?

I don't think that a Paraguayan can be an important politician or leader in the political scene of Buenos Aires, unless if we are talking about a creole landowner, if it is the case, he wouldn't defend Paraguayan interests.

What would happen to the Guarani language in this situation - would it still be spoken or would being part of Argentina make Spanish the standard for everyone? How many of the Guarani would move to Buenos Aires to find jobs?

The state, specially the public school system, reached a long part of Paraguay, even rural areas, at 1860. So, is easy for a snob government to remove the guarani language. If guarani speakers move to Buenos Aires, in the second and third generation they will be spanish-only speakers.

What would it take to get Francia's industrial policy to continue - would Francia need to have a less, er, unusual attitude toward women, leading to marriage and a legitimate son? How industrialized could Paraguay get in the 19th century?

I don't see Francia inheriting the power to a son, I see another intellectual or a board of them rather. Francia would be disappointed with a son that don't know what do under a curve, a derivative or an integral.

Paraguay could be a little more industrialized than OTL Spain or Argentina at the beginning of 19th century. But the revolutions, civil wars, populist governments and so will make it decline, so is very implaussible that Paraguay could keep it all the 20th century.

Hmmm, not sure I'd compare Carlos Antonio to Marcus Aurelius.

BTW, I hadn't realized that "nothing happens in South America" was a catchphrase.

In fact, Carlos Antonio did continue with the industrialist policy as with the public education system.

But they still join the United Provinces instead of going their own way? I could see them allying with Artigas against Buenos Aires. The additional manpower could cause the Directors and the semblance of a national wide government to collapse earlier, by 1819 or maybe 1818 instead of 1820.

And then Paraguay would be immersed in the decades long civil wars. There won't be a War of the Triple Alliance, of course, and Francia is likely to steer his province in a better direction than the Argentine northern provinces, so it might eventually turn into the richest of them.
It does provide an additional angle of attack against Brazil in the Argentina-Brazilian war, if the Paraguayans are inclined to take the Matto Grosso. It doesn't prevent, of course, the Brazilian blockade of the River Plate, but it would have important butterflies in that war's outcome, maybe negating Uruguay's independence (and setting the seeds for a second Argentine-Brazilian war if the Brazilians feel confident in the future)

It is so plaussible, even more plaussible that things that happened in OTL.

Well, not that much. Rosas, IIRC, never recognized Paraguay's independence, but Rivadavia made no effort to keep Bolivia and I don't think too many businessmen from Buenos Aires disliked Uruguay getting independence.

Yes, not that much, but it was really a mess.

 

[juanml82]

I don't think that a Paraguayan can be an important politician or leader in the political scene of Buenos Aires, unless if we are talking about a creole landowner, if it is the case, he wouldn't defend Paraguayan interests.

Well, Julio Roca became one of the most important Argentine leaders in the late 19th century and he was from Tucuman.
Of course, none can claim he defended Tucuman interests and, then again, he started studying in Entre Rios at 15.

 

[unprincipled peter]

the first half of the 1800's pinned the portenos against the rest of the country, and the portenos always won. Paraguay joining the fray isn't going to change that.

 

[Admiral Brown]

the first half of the 1800's pinned the portenos against the rest of the country, and the portenos always won. Paraguay joining the fray isn't going to change that.

Actually, porteños didn't "always" won. We won some battles, but lost others. We only "won" definitively at the end, in 1861, at the second battle of Pavón, when Mitre defeated Urquiza and sent armies to the West and the Northewest. And even today many think Urquiza retreated too early at that battle, that he could have won had he kept on fighting.

Porteños were clearly defeated, for example, in 1820 and in 1859. You may consider that the defeat of Rosas was in 1852 was a defeat for porteños, although that's controversial cause many porteños exiles were fighting against him.

But the thing is that, throught the more than 40 years of intermitent civil war (1820-1860), although Buenos Aires was the richest of the 14 provinces and had morefunds than all the other provinces convined, its armies weren't always victorious, quite on the countrary. Back then, an army of mounted gauches recruited in the provinces were a serious match for the poorly equiped, not very motivated armies raised by buenos Aires. Not to mention the fact that there were many in Buenos aires, specially in the countriside, that sympathized with the federalists.

All this meant that there was a draw between the forces of buenos aires and those of the provinces, neither side being able to impose against the other.

That draw might have not ended in 1861/62 had Urquiza hadn't been defeated and made an arrangment with Buenos aires, thus keeping Mesopotamia neutral when Buenos Aires send armies to defeat the caudillos of the west and the Northwest. Some speculate that Urquiza did this cause he had come to the conclusion that the country needed Buenos Aires in, and it couldn't be kept in by force, and that Buenos aires wouldn't be let in if it weren't allowed to exert some form of hegemony.

Anyway, the draw wouldn't have lasted forever: eventually, at most in the late 1870ies, Buenos Aires would have been able to import Remingtons and other arms that would probably made them superior to the armies of the provinces.

 

[minifidel]

To be honest, we lost again in 1882, when Federal troops stormed the city to split it from the Province of Buenos Aires. But I guess the 130 years since made up for it.

 

[DG Valdron]

For what it's worth, my opinion is that there aren't nearly enough South American or Latin American timelines. It's overlooked big time, almost as badly overlooked as Africa.

And my broad criticism of the few that are around is that they don't spend nearly enough time explaining the intricacies of Latin American history, and so you have timelines which start out with "What if Doctor Solano, instead of shooting Lopez at the insurrection of May 15, simply exiled him..."

All timelines of course, are built on subtle divergences. But unless you're a historian who has studied this little corner of history... it's meaningless to the average reader, they don't have enough background or depth to appreciate the situation, or care about the consequences.

I think that a little investment in explaining and putting context in would go a long way. And you might get Timelines that run page after page, instead of petering out in a dozen posts.

Anyway, my two cents, for what they're worth.