A victorious Imperial Germany overthrows the Bolshevist regime

[arnoldcabell]

In the summer of 1918, the Kaiser declined proposals to militarily intervene in Russia, but notably did not rule out the possibility of intervention in the "near-mid future": the Germans would not have tolerated the Bolsheviks for long in the event of a victory in the West in 1917/1918.

In the event that the Germans did advance on Petrograd and Moscow following victory, the Bolshevists would have been toppled. After all, the July 1918 SR revolt, the March 1921 Green uprising and the advance of the White Armies had indicated that the Bolshevists were hardly invincible, with or without Lenin and the supposedly "genius" military leadership of Trotsky, especially with the infancy of the Red Army at this stage. The prospect of partisan warfare is hardly realistic: the Bolshevik call to arms in Ukraine in August 1918 against the unpopular Skoropadskyi received hardly any response from the peasantry.

A Skoropadskyi-style government in Petrograd and Moscow would no doubt have been unpopular, and would have to be propped up on German bayonets. But still, in light of the German destruction of the Bolshevist movement, the prospects for a radically leftist government would have definitively ended: Makhno's Black Army was hardly going to wrest Moscow from Germany, and the Bolshevists would literally have had nowhere to go in light of the advancing White Armies. Even if a German-backed regime eventually fails, a right-wing, or even better, a centrist government is going to be far superior to a Bolshevist regime, although that is admittedly not a high bar to clear.

Ironically enough, a post-war German intervention in the civil war would have saved Russia from the Bolshevist calamity.

 

[Anarchomando]

Oh come on like the tsar was any better


Also, you genuinely risk overstopping your bounds herr Kaiser

In the event that the Germans did advance on Petrograd and Moscow following victory, the Bolshevists would have been toppled.

See the problem is You're talking world war 1 here. Fat chance you don't have people look running.

The Great war was a death trap mixed with a meat grinder.
You're asking a sparty uprising

Even if a German-backed regime eventually fails, a right-wing, or even better, a centrist government is going to be far superior to a Bolshevist regime, although that is admittedly not a high bar to clear.

Dude a true Democratic government would be far superior to all And I'm sorry but someone like Rosa is far better for true Democratic communism then than lenin
But that also means the Kaiser will be kaput.

 

[NAF]

Oh come on like the tsar was any better


Also, you genuinely risk overstopping your bounds herr Kaiser


See the problem is You're talking world war 1 here. Fat chance you don't have people look running.

The Great war was a death trap mixed with a meat grinder.
You're asking a sparty uprising


Dude a true Democratic government would be far superior to all And I'm sorry but someone like Rosa is far better for true Democratic communism then than lenin
But that also means the Kaiser will be kaput.

"Better" isn't the term I would use, but as incompetent a buffoon the Tsar was, he at the very least did not attempt to carry out any messianic vision that resulted in the deaths of truly horrific amounts of people.

As to your other point, I think you're making the error of ascribing the grueling trench warfare so characteristic of the western front to this ATL German-Soviet conflict in the east, where it doesn't really apply to the same degree.

And while I don't think the Germans have the capability of occupying the entirety of Russia to the Urals and having their white faction of choice win, I do think they're more than capable of ensuring the reds lose. A likely scenario I envision is German troops marching to Petrograd and Moscow and cutting the head off of red leadership, as the OP stated. After that, I can see the establishment of a (very) shaky puppet government, which either manages to stumble along or collapses into a smattering of warlord states.

And finally, while of course (functioning) democracy is ideal, that's not really an option by the time the Russian Civil War is underway. The Whites were by and large reactionaries, and by 1918 Lenin's Bolsheviks had already shut down the Constituent Assembly after the Socialist Revolutionaries were voted in instead of them. If you want a true democracy then IMO you need to find a way to avoid the Civil War.

 

[Anarchomando]

"Better" isn't the term I would use, but as incompetent a buffoon the Tsar was, he at the very least did not attempt to carry out any messianic vision that resulted in the deaths of truly horrific amounts of people.

No, it was more pogroms

outright and honest
Hack the Russians created the protocols of the elders of Zion.

Zsar was not good

As to your other point, I think you're making the error of ascribing the grueling trench warfare so characteristic of the western front to this ATL German-Soviet conflict in the east, where it doesn't really apply to the same degree.

I still know It was a grueling war. It would have to have been to radicalize people

And while I don't think the Germans have the capability of occupying the entirety of Russia to the Urals and having their white faction of choice win, I do think they're more than capable of ensuring the reds lose.

Sure, the Russians not the reds as a concept. Can't really kill communism as a concept long term
They'll just have a new brand to fight for revolution. And liberation of the working class

syndicalist is a perfect example

A likely scenario I envision is German troops marching to Petrograd and Moscow and cutting the head off of red leadership, as the OP stated. After that, I can see the establishment of a (very) shaky puppet government, which either manages to stumble along or collapses into a smattering of warlord states.

revolutions are not based off individuals but collectives

nd finally, while of course (functioning) democracy is ideal, that's not really an option by the time the Russian Civil War is underway. The Whites were by and large reactionaries, and by 1918 Lenin's Bolsheviks had already shut down the Constituent Assembly after the Socialist Revolutionaries were voted in instead of them. If you want a true democracy then IMO you need to find a way to avoid the Civil War.

down with the king down with the czar( I say take away all of his wealth and prestige and just give him a tiny castle under house arrest.)

Democracy will take a while to bebuild but that truly can do good to the masses

 

[InvaderX]

No, it was more pogroms

outright and honest
Hack the Russians created the protocols of the elders of Zion.

Zsar was not good

Nobody is saying the Tsar was good. The Bolshevik regime was horrific, and so was the Tsar's.

Sure, the Russians not the reds as a concept. Can't really kill communism as a concept long term
They'll just have a new brand to fight for revolution. And liberation of the working class

syndicalist is a perfect example

They likely would try, as many anti-Bolshevik partisans did even after they won the civil war. But like with those partisans, I doubt they would have all that much success, unless Russia breaks up into lawless warlord states. But even then, having lost the civil war, the Bolshevik cause would be discredited and the Russians may look to others to liberate them - perhaps other socialists, perhaps something even more extreme than the Bolsheviks.

I don't get what you mean by syndicalism being a perfect example - the syndicalist revolution in Spain failed and while it still has some minor appeal (and some of the parties and organizations survive today), it never managed a second revolution.

down with the king down with the czar( I say take away all of his wealth and prestige and just give him a tiny castle under house arrest.)

Democracy will take a while to bebuild but that truly can do good to the masses

I mean, that is pretty much what happened, except that they then murdered him and his entire family including his children. In any case I doubt the Tsar is coming back no matter who wins the civil war, or at least, he wouldn't have anywhere near as important of a role as he once did. Russians, Bolshevik or otherwise, by this point were pretty tired of the Tsar.

Unfortunately as NAF says, it's not likely for a democracy in anything more than name to emerge from the Russian Civil War regardless of whether or not the Bolsheviks win. Most likely you'd end up with some sort of military dictatorship or oligarchy, perhaps putting up a façade of being a "democracy" (much like modern Russia). None of the major factions at this stage of the war were particularly interested in actual democracy.

 

[arnoldcabell]

Oh come on like the tsar was any better


Also, you genuinely risk overstopping your bounds herr Kaiser


See the problem is You're talking world war 1 here. Fat chance you don't have people look running.

The Great war was a death trap mixed with a meat grinder.
You're asking a sparty uprising


Dude a true Democratic government would be far superior to all And I'm sorry but someone like Rosa is far better for true Democratic communism then than lenin
But that also means the Kaiser will be kaput.

No, it was more pogroms

outright and honest
Hack the Russians created the protocols of the elders of Zion.

Zsar was not good



I still know It was a grueling war. It would have to have been to radicalize people



Sure, the Russians not the reds as a concept. Can't really kill communism as a concept long term
They'll just have a new brand to fight for revolution. And liberation of the working class

syndicalist is a perfect example


revolutions are not based off individuals but collectives

down with the king down with the czar( I say take away all of his wealth and prestige and just give him a tiny castle under house arrest.)

Democracy will take a while to bebuild but that truly can do good to the masses

The MSPD full-throatedly supported Brest-Litovsk: they are not going to oppose German military action against the Bolsheviki.

The USPD was far too small to ever launch a Revolution: look at how the Spartacists failed against the weak and unstable Weimar Republic, for instance.

 

[Crueldwarf]

In the event that the Germans did advance on Petrograd and Moscow following victory, the Bolshevists would have been toppled.

There is no way for Germans in late 1917 or early 1918 to advance on Moscow. Petrograd is possible but it would both require serious commitment (that German Empire was ill-posed to afford) and will do nothing to actually topple Bolsheviks. In fact the most likely result of continuing German advance on Petrograd and failure of the peace talks would be a flip of the Bolshevik rhetoric toward patriotic defense and Lenin actually going along with Entente demands. Which would probably lead to Entente actually supporting the Bolsheviks against the Germans.

Even if a German-backed regime eventually fails, a right-wing, or even better, a centrist government is going to be far superior to a Bolshevist regime, although that is admittedly not a high bar to clear.

Ironically enough, a post-war German intervention in the civil war would have saved Russia from the Bolshevist calamity.

I'm not sure how repressive Right-wing government would be any better than repressive Left-wing government. The issue with all those popular proposals about how proto-Whites or actual Whites could keep their power in Russia is rather simple: Russian Right-wingers have no real concessions to offer to placate Russian peasantry. Whites have no solution to the question of land ownership. And this thing alone would mean that they would loose any sort of civil conflict against the Bolsheviks regardless of who would support them. Historical Whites lost with the might of victorious Entente behind their back. ATL Whites would have last gasps of the German Reich as a backing. It will basically never work.

And of course as a descendant of a dozen generations of serfs and poor peasantry I can definitely say that any sort of right-wing alternative would be much worse than all the shit Bolsheviks pulled historically. Left were at least semi-competent and had good intentions in mind. Right had neither competence nor good intentions.

 

[arnoldcabell]

There is no way for Germans in late 1917 or early 1918 to advance on Moscow. Petrograd is possible but it would both require serious commitment (that German Empire was ill-posed to afford) and will do nothing to actually topple Bolsheviks. In fact the most likely result of continuing German advance on Petrograd and failure of the peace talks would be a flip of the Bolshevik rhetoric toward patriotic defense and Lenin actually going along with Entente demands. Which would probably lead to Entente actually supporting the Bolsheviks against the Germans.

Once the Entente has been defeated, there is nothing stopping Germany from destroying the Bolshevik government. Nobody will be supporting the Bolsheviks anyways.

I'm not sure how repressive Right-wing government would be any better than repressive Left-wing government. The issue with all those popular proposals about how proto-Whites or actual Whites could keep their power in Russia is rather simple: Russian Right-wingers have no real concessions to offer to placate Russian peasantry. Whites have no solution to the question of land ownership. And this thing alone would mean that they would loose any sort of civil conflict against the Bolsheviks regardless of who would support them. Historical Whites lost with the might of victorious Entente behind their back. ATL Whites would have last gasps of the German Reich as a backing. It will basically never work.

The entire premise is that Germany wins. Once that happens, a Skoropadskyi-style regime can, and will, be installed in Petrograd and Moscow.

And of course as a descendant of a dozen generations of serfs and poor peasantry I can definitely say that any sort of right-wing alternative would be much worse than all the shit Bolsheviks pulled historically. Left were at least semi-competent and had good intentions in mind. Right had neither competence nor good intentions.

The Bolshevik attempt to stir up an insurrection against the pro-German Skoropadskyi in Ukraine amounted to nothing in the end. No, the peasants aren’t going to save Lenin and Stalin.

 

[Crueldwarf]

Well, German victory in First World War makes it ASB and not alternative history.

 

[RedSword12]

Well, German victory in First World War makes it ASB and not alternative history.

That's a genuinely ridiculous idea. Less "plausible" things have happened in war.

 

[arnoldcabell]

Well, German victory in First World War makes it ASB and not alternative history.

That's a genuinely ridiculous idea.

If Vice President Marshall stated that he would send a large army to “exterminate the Bolsheviki” at the height of the Civil War if he became President after Wilsons’s stroke, what’s exactly stopping the Kaiser in the event that he wins?

 

[Leonidas]

There are several older threads on this topic detailing the many reasons why this is implausible.

 

[arnoldcabell]

There are several older threads on this topic detailing the many reasons why this is implausible.

The Bolshevists came close to defeat by the White Armies and being overthrown by the SRs and Greens in turn in 1918 and 1921. They wouldn’t have survived the Germans being thrown on top of that.

 

[RedSword12]

The Bolshevists came close to defeat by the White Armies and being overthrown by the SRs and Greens in turn in 1918 and 1921. They wouldn’t have survived the Germans being thrown on top of that.

Given the successes of the Baltic states and the Freikorps against the Bolshevik Army, I'm inclined to think that a small expeditionary force could have succeeded in toppling the Bolshevik regime. However, I doubt they would have very much say in what government replaces them. It could end up being a big mistake for Germany in the long run, since a communist boogieman is more useful in keeping Germany's eastern puppets in line than a fractious Russia in ruins.

 

[Leonidas]

The Bolshevists came close to defeat by the White Armies and being overthrown by the SRs and Greens in turn in 1918 and 1921. They wouldn’t have survived the Germans being thrown on top of that.

The plausibility of the German Empire intervening to support the Whites and their effectiveness if they did so are some of the many topics discussed in those preexisting threads.

If Vice President Marshall stated that he would send a large army to “exterminate the Bolsheviki” at the height of the Civil War if he became President after Wilsons’s stroke, what’s exactly stopping the Kaiser in the event that he wins?

No correlation between the actions of the Kaiser and the Vice President of the United States.

 

[nbcman]

Well, German victory in First World War makes it ASB and not alternative history.

ASB is not the proper term for as it doesn't take magic or alien intervention for a German victory. It may be exceptionally implausible for the 2nd Reich to survive WW1 to intervene in the east but it is not downright impossible. EDIT: It could even involve a losing 2nd Reich but a more extensive and longer lasting Freikorps involvement in the Russian Civil War to tip the tide.

 

[arnoldcabell]

Given the successes of the Baltic states and the Freikorps against the Bolshevik Army, I'm inclined to think that a small expeditionary force could have succeeded in toppling the Bolshevik regime. However, I doubt they would have very much say in what government replaces them. It could end up being a big mistake for Germany in the long run, since a communist boogieman is more useful in keeping Germany's eastern puppets in line than a fractious Russia in ruins.

A volunteer army of Germans could have overthrown the Bolsheviks, although it doesn’t necessarily guarantee that whatever they replace it with will last for long anyway.

The plausibility of the German Empire intervening to support the Whites and their effectiveness if they did so are some of the many topics discussed in those preexisting threads.

No correlation between the actions of the Kaiser and the Vice President of the United States.

The Bolsheviks were international pariahs after WWI, and the Red Army was still in its infancy.

 

[Leonidas]

The Bolsheviks were international pariahs after WWI, and the Red Army was still in its infancy.

What is this meant to be in response to?

 

[arnoldcabell]

What is this meant to be in response to?

Any German offensive in the West after the war would have broken the Bolshevik state: Denikin/Wrangel in the South and Kolchak in the East were putting the Bolsheviks under massive pressure at the same time.

 

[Leonidas]

Any German offensive in the West after the war would have broken the Bolshevik state: Denikin/Wrangel in the South and Kolchak in the East were putting the Bolsheviks under massive pressure at the same time.

It could break the German state in the process too. After barely scraping through WWI, they’re not in any position to keep fighting without losing what remaining stability they had.