A True and Better Alamo Redux

[Fearless Leader]

I'm sorry but unless you have something better to say, I think this invasion of Malta idea, despite the deck being stacked much more heavily in the allies favor ITTL, seems like an asspull of epic proportions.

The Germans, with fewer assets overall compared to OTL, against British forces that are stronger then OTL, do something that wasn't even considered in OTL when the German position in the Meditteranean in summer 1942 was far stronger and the British far weaker.

This is getting more into the point of rule of cool, instead of realistic.

Good luck, but I personally hope that you either remove this last chapter.

Well, I'm sorry you think that. But I think I've made my case quite clearly and you're going to have to present a much better argument than that (maybe some sources?) to get me to consider taking back this last chapter.

In fact, now that you mention it, the Germans having fewer forces overall (by that I assume you're referring to the Tirpitz) will actually come up in the future because it helps free up much needed fuel for the RM for Operation C3!

Also let's face it...every German offensive after summer 1942 was, to use your words "an asspull of epic proportions" in the grand scheme of things. The most logical thing for them to do was surrender...but that's politically impossible to say the least. TTL's invasion of Malta is the Axis' attempt to make the best out of a bad situation and make as much hay as possible before the sun sets.

Finally, I'm going to assume you have some weird firewall, because the links I've posted as well as even a cursory Google search or heck, I'd wager even a visit to your local library would reveal that Operation C3/Herkules was very much considered and would have gone through had Rommel not launched his offensive in May.

Hey, the Australians used captured Italian tanks...

You know...that totally slipped my mind until just now. Though the motive is a bit clearer there than in the case of the Germans at Malta.

 

[ViperKing]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Herkules

Not hard, and not hard to use common sense to understand why it ultimately didn't go ahead in OTL due to so many forces being pulled into operations in the Egypt/Libya region.

If anything, all this has done is ultimately pull vital troops and resources away from Rommel's forces in North Africa, while allowing the British and Americans more time to build up and ultimately drive the Germans and Italians out of Africa for good.

The Germans may have been evil Nazi murderers in a number of cases, but they where hardly stupid soldiers, the ones on the front lines at least. In the end, I just don't see the long term rationale that they would try something ITTL that they ultimately where not willing to pull off in OTL.

If you can make this work, more power to you. But don't say you where not advised otherwise if this timeline ultimately hits a similar stumbling block to the first version, if only by a different path.

 

[Fearless Leader]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Herkules

Not hard, and not hard to use common sense to understand why it ultimately didn't go ahead in OTL due to so many forces being pulled into operations in the Egypt/Libya region.

If anything, all this has done is ultimately pull vital troops and resources away from Rommel's forces in North Africa, while allowing the British and Americans more time to build up and ultimately drive the Germans and Italians out of Africa for good.

The Germans may have been evil Nazi murderers in a number of cases, but they where hardly stupid soldiers, the ones on the front lines at least. In the end, I just don't see the long term rationale that they would try something ITTL that they ultimately where not willing to pull off in OTL.

If you can make this work, more power to you. But don't say you where not advised otherwise if this timeline ultimately hits a similar stumbling block to the first version, if only by a different path.

Thanks for addressing precisely none of the arguments I raised earlier. I will certainly take it under advisement.

As for the rationale: How about the following?
1. Secure supply lines to Africa allowing them to at the very least, tie up the Allies longer than they would have oherwise.
2. Complete dominance over the Central Med.
3. Create yet another barrier to any invasion of Sicily.

 

[ViperKing]

Thanks for addressing precisely none of the arguments I raised earlier. I will certainly take it under advisement.

As for the rationale: How about the following?
1. Secure supply lines to Africa allowing them to at the very least, tie up the Allies longer than they would have oherwise.
2. Complete dominance over the Central Med.
3. Create yet another barrier to any invasion of Sicily.

So aren't things in North Africa basically similar to OTL so far?

If so, then quite a bit of the men and supplies that Rommel would have recieved in OTL have been used up at Malta and even if casualties aren't too bad(probably quite bloody if Crete is anything to go by) this will have an impact on Rommel's supply lines in a negative way. Units assigned to Malta can not just immediately pack up and head into bases in Libya.

Likewise, with a more stable Atlantic situation, and the Indian Ocean being considerably more secure, what with dozens of merchant ships that where not lost in OTL Operation C still being available to the British, quite a bit of manpower and supplies will still be able to flow in from the Far East that in OTL might not have been possible.

While this may have been a temporary success, I see this similar to your version 1 invasion of Darwin. An initial success that is devastating locally, but doesn't make sense in the context of the Axis forces having fewer resources overall to work with, while attacking a target that in the long run really doesn't get them anywhere.

 

[Fearless Leader]

So aren't things in North Africa basically similar to OTL so far?

Yup

If so, then quite a bit of the men and supplies that Rommel would have recieved in OTL have been used up at Malta and even if casualties aren't too bad(probably quite bloody if Crete is anything to go by) this will have an impact on Rommel's supply lines in a negative way. Units assigned to Malta can not just immediately pack up and head into bases in Libya.

Likewise, with a more stable Atlantic situation, and the Indian Ocean being considerably more secure, what with dozens of merchant ships that where not lost in OTL Operation C still being available to the British, quite a bit of manpower and supplies will still be able to flow in from the Far East that in OTL might not have been possible.

While this may have been a temporary success, I see this similar to your version 1 invasion of Darwin. An initial success that is devastating locally, but doesn't make sense in the context of the Axis forces having fewer resources overall to work with, while attacking a target that in the long run really doesn't get them anywhere.

No, the forces used in Operation Herkules won't be able to pack up and reinforce Rommel, but his supply situation will be INFINITELY better without the threat of Malta. This alone justifies the operation.

You said earlier that the Germans weren't total idiots. I agree with you. But in light of the fact of the stronger Allied situation, and a Malta that appears stronger as well, wouldn't pursuing the course of action taken in OTL seem even worse than launching an invasion? What then are the Axis to do? They know that the Allies are going to come at them hard in Africa, why allow a threat to their supply lines if they can theoretically take it out?

Sure, the sanest thing they could do is to evacuate, but I don't see that being politically feasible in the slightest. IMO they have a choice between invading Malta and pouring more and more resources into an African front that could easily be cut off by TTL's stronger Malta.

That being said...the whole Malta plot line will likely be scrapped.

In attempting to shore up my case I found out that there was another equally good reason why the Victorious wasn't pulled in to do a Club Run to Malta besides the Tirpitz. Namely, her aircraft elevators were too small to accommodate the non folding wing Spitfires. As the Illustrious is her sister ship, the same goes for her. This comes from reading both primary and secondary sources (related to Churchill's request for the Wasp to do a Club Run). Sure, they could be pulled in to fly aircraft out to the island in a pinch, but that would hardly be a compelling reason to delay convoy MW-10. Butterflying away the problems that occurred with MW-10's attempts to reinforce Malta is too heavy handed for my liking (plus verging on wank territory in terms of having things go better for the UK). If I were to do that, the invasion of Malta would indeed be a "rule of cool" addition as you've argued. I knew the timeline for the two carriers to make it to the Mediterranean was tight originally...but this makes it too tight in more ways than one!

MW-10's success was the crux of my argument. Without it, Malta appears as feeble as ever and no doubt causes Kesselring to brag about its neutralization meaning no Operation C3/Herkules.

Things will be different for Malta undoubtedly in TTL. The Wasp's absence will be keenly felt, as I'm not sure the British carriers can fill that hole entirely (the Wasp's captain was a major factor in prompting fixes with the Spitfire's long range fuel tanks. In TTL that process may take longer for example...)

*watches weeks of research go up in smoke*

 

[cubefreak123]

Oof, that's brutal to hear but your willingness to change things based off new research is commendable.

 

[Shadow Knight]

*watches weeks of research go up in smoke*

Ouch. That's the thing with good AH is that sometimes what you want to do just isn't feasible but in the end it is usually better for it.

 

[The Sandman]

Unless she's also too small, why not use Ranger to carry the reinforcement aircraft and have the British carriers provide air cover? It’s not as if she's good for much else.

For that matter, the British could try using a deck park for the run into Malta.

 

[Fearless Leader]

Unless she's also too small, why not use Ranger to carry the reinforcement aircraft and have the British carriers provide air cover? It’s not as if she's good for much else.

For that matter, the British could try using a deck park for the run into Malta.

Thought about that. Two problems.

1. The USN was INCREDIBLY hesitant to use the Ranger. She may have been big enough, but the USN was convinced she was too small which was all that mattered. The only time they put her in the smallest modicum of danger was during Operation Torch which hardly put her in harm's way like she would be if she participated in a Club Run.

2. Even if they decided to use the Ranger or deck parks. None of this solves the crux of my problem which is MW-10. From my research, there seems to be a critical window in late March/Early April in which Operation C3/Herkules is being seriously considered by both sides. Thus TTL's original success of MW-10 in early April happens at a critical point and it gets both the Germans and the Italians to "buy in". After April 1942 Kesselring's convinced that Malta's as good as neutralized and Rommel's convinced that he can succeed without taking care of Malta. There's also little chance that the RN would push a convoy through before May 1942 in TTL even with their additional ships.

 

[Readman]

I hate to criticize an otherwise fabulous TL, FL, buuuut.... The Malta Situation just seem waaaay outta left-field. I mean for serious. I would think that Malta would have everything and the kitchen sink thrown into to help if it was invaded. Certainly since heavy element of the Home Fleet are sent to the Med they would be more than thrilled to get in on the action and thrash the RM goodlike Others have spoken of ULTRA, and yes, of course husbanding the fact the Allies knew the Enigma Code was Broken and making Sure the Germans didn't Know they Knew was a paramount concern, but a case can be made that they could detect the rapid signals intel buildup in the Med and without tipping the Germans off make the necessary adjustments and reinforcements.

Again, not trying to be a nitpicker or negative, at all just wanting to put my 2 cents in.

 

[ViperKing]

Keep in mind also, 2nd Wake Island happened around mid April. The US apparently didn't get away scott free, loosing Yorktown, Hornet, and the battleship USS Washington, but from my understanding of rereading that section a couple of times, all four remaining Japanese carriers where sunk, the land based airgroups in the Marshalls, despite drawing blood on the Wake Island based fighters, have been shattered for what, the third or fourth time, and at the end of the day the US still has Enterprise, Wasp, and Lexington to hold the line.

None of the carriers that attacked Pearl Harbor remain afloat, and the Ryujo is gone as well thanks to the British.

Combine that with a somewhat less screwed position in Burma, and I could see the British looking to possibly pull HMS Indomitable and/or HMS Formidable back to the Altantic or Med. Historically after the invasion of Madagascar in May of 1942 the British Far Eastern Fleet really didn't see a lot of action, and by the end of 1942 and on into 1943 a lot of the forces there where pulled back to help wrap up North Africa and support operations against Sicily and Italy.

Here, with all six of Nagumo's carriers gone, not to mention a number of other warships that where not lost in OTL, combined with the fact that Burma isn't as bad off, combined with the fact that Rabaul and New Guinea are essentially safe, thus butterflying away the slog up the Solomons chain, and things like the Kokoda Track campaign with cost many US and Australian soldiers their lives, I could see the British being able to pull at least one carrier from the Indian Ocean a few months sooner.

Things are still far from perfect for the allies, but the situation in the Pacific and Asia at least, compared to OTL is considerably better then OTL, and given the worldwide effect of this war, one or more major improvements for the allies in one theater will have butterflies elsewhere.

Everything up til this last section was pretty good though, I will say that.

 

[Geordie]

Right. Where to start?

Firstly, congratulations on your impending nuptials! I hope it's wonderful, even if any more talk of marriage will make my girlfriend's eyes roll right out of their sockets, seeing as she'd quite like me to get down on one knee pretty sharpish.

Secondly:

At first glance, I did think Malta was reaching somewhat on your part. Not impossible, by any means, but certainly less likely than OTL's events. That being said, I understand the rationale. Not only do you wish to avoid an Ally-wank, but there was a window when the Operation was being considered, when Malta could well have found itself unable to stand. If I understand correctly, in OTL, Malta was weak enough that the Axis don't think it's worth the effort; whereas in TTL, the earlier convoy gives Malta enough teeth to change that decision?

Unless there was literally no way of discovering the amphibious forces in a way that maintained plausible deniability, then I can see Churchill possibly keeping the RN back. However, if they can think of an excuse for Force H to be charging Eastward from Gibraltar, I'd be very surprised if it wasn't grabbed.


Now, your last post has made all this somewhat moot.

Please correct me if I'm wrong:

• The small carrier lifts mean that the convoy that you sent in earlier than OTL cannot be sent any earlier in TTL.
• Without that convoy reaching Grand Harbour, Smiling Albert will come to his OTL decision that Malta ain't worth the blood and treasure it would cost.
• By the time he can re-examine this decision, Malta itself will be too strong, and there are likely to be other concerns in the Med anyway...
• Malta isn't falling in this TL...

How does this change of plans around Valletta affect TORCH/GYMNAST and the Eighth Army's journey across Libya?

 

[Rich Rostrom]

That being said...the whole Malta plot line will likely be scrapped...
*watches weeks of research go up in smoke*

Oof. But that which does not kill the TL makes it stronger. (Which is impressive, considering its established strength.)

In any case, you get a Hemingway KillYourDarlings ribbon.

And let this be a lesson to all of us: do the research in the right order. Before investing time in a TL element, confirm its prerequisites. (Which may not be temporally ahead of it. If the point of A is that it would precede B - but B is impossible - don't bother with A.)

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

And let this be a lesson to all of us: do the research in the right order. Before investing time in a TL element, confirm its prerequisites. (Which may not be temporally ahead of it. If the point of A is that it would precede B - but B is impossible - don't bother with A.)

Oh, you make that sound so simple! Trust me, it's not.

 

[cubefreak123]

And let this be a lesson to all of us: do the research in the right order. Before investing time in a TL element, confirm its prerequisites. (Which may not be temporally ahead of it. If the point of A is that it would precede B - but B is impossible - don't bother with A.)

Was this intended to be snarky?

 

[Fearless Leader]

I hate to criticize an otherwise fabulous TL, FL, buuuut.... The Malta Situation just seem waaaay outta left-field. I mean for serious. I would think that Malta would have everything and the kitchen sink thrown into to help if it was invaded. Certainly since heavy element of the Home Fleet are sent to the Med they would be more than thrilled to get in on the action and thrash the RM goodlike Others have spoken of ULTRA, and yes, of course husbanding the fact the Allies knew the Enigma Code was Broken and making Sure the Germans didn't Know they Knew was a paramount concern, but a case can be made that they could detect the rapid signals intel buildup in the Med and without tipping the Germans off make the necessary adjustments and reinforcements.

Again, not trying to be a nitpicker or negative, at all just wanting to put my 2 cents in.

Not that this matters now, but for the sake of argument...

I appreciate it, but I'm having a hard time seeing it. RN heavy units got nowhere near Malta in OTL. Churchill wanted to pull elements of the Far Eastern Fleet in to the Med to escort a westbound Malta convoy in May 1942 and Somerville totally shut him down. AFAIK the RN Admirals had a decent fear of the LW/RA in the Central Med and did their best not to risk their heavy assets.

Keeping in mind Axis air supremacy in the Central Med in this period, I just can't see the RN risking anything substantial in an effort to relieve Malta. Not only would they have to face the bulk of the RM but they'd have to do it without any kind of air support and under constant air attack. It would be a slaughter of unparalleled proportions...and exactly what the Italians would want.

Churchill may push for it, but once high ranking British admirals get through with him he'll back off. Especially if he has other priorities, such as protecting the invasion of North Africa to keep in mind.

Keep in mind also, 2nd Wake Island happened around mid April. The US apparently didn't get away scott free, loosing Yorktown, Hornet, and the battleship USS Washington, but from my understanding of rereading that section a couple of times, all four remaining Japanese carriers where sunk, the land based airgroups in the Marshalls, despite drawing blood on the Wake Island based fighters, have been shattered for what, the third or fourth time, and at the end of the day the US still has Enterprise, Wasp, and Lexington to hold the line.

None of the carriers that attacked Pearl Harbor remain afloat, and the Ryujo is gone as well thanks to the British.

Combine that with a somewhat less screwed position in Burma, and I could see the British looking to possibly pull HMS Indomitable and/or HMS Formidable back to the Altantic or Med. Historically after the invasion of Madagascar in May of 1942 the British Far Eastern Fleet really didn't see a lot of action, and by the end of 1942 and on into 1943 a lot of the forces there where pulled back to help wrap up North Africa and support operations against Sicily and Italy.

Here, with all six of Nagumo's carriers gone, not to mention a number of other warships that where not lost in OTL, combined with the fact that Burma isn't as bad off, combined with the fact that Rabaul and New Guinea are essentially safe, thus butterflying away the slog up the Solomons chain, and things like the Kokoda Track campaign with cost many US and Australian soldiers their lives, I could see the British being able to pull at least one carrier from the Indian Ocean a few months sooner.

Things are still far from perfect for the allies, but the situation in the Pacific and Asia at least, compared to OTL is considerably better then OTL, and given the worldwide effect of this war, one or more major improvements for the allies in one theater will have butterflies elsewhere.

Everything up til this last section was pretty good though, I will say that.

Not quite sure what you're getting at. You still haven't answered my earlier points...

Right. Where to start?

Firstly, congratulations on your impending nuptials! I hope it's wonderful, even if any more talk of marriage will make my girlfriend's eyes roll right out of their sockets, seeing as she'd quite like me to get down on one knee pretty sharpish.

Secondly:

At first glance, I did think Malta was reaching somewhat on your part. Not impossible, by any means, but certainly less likely than OTL's events. That being said, I understand the rationale. Not only do you wish to avoid an Ally-wank, but there was a window when the Operation was being considered, when Malta could well have found itself unable to stand. If I understand correctly, in OTL, Malta was weak enough that the Axis don't think it's worth the effort; whereas in TTL, the earlier convoy gives Malta enough teeth to change that decision?

Unless there was literally no way of discovering the amphibious forces in a way that maintained plausible deniability, then I can see Churchill possibly keeping the RN back. However, if they can think of an excuse for Force H to be charging Eastward from Gibraltar, I'd be very surprised if it wasn't grabbed.


Now, your last post has made all this somewhat moot.

Please correct me if I'm wrong:

• The small carrier lifts mean that the convoy that you sent in earlier than OTL cannot be sent any earlier in TTL.
• Without that convoy reaching Grand Harbour, Smiling Albert will come to his OTL decision that Malta ain't worth the blood and treasure it would cost.
• By the time he can re-examine this decision, Malta itself will be too strong, and there are likely to be other concerns in the Med anyway...
• Malta isn't falling in this TL...

How does this change of plans around Valletta affect TORCH/GYMNAST and the Eighth Army's journey across Libya?

Thanks! You've pretty much nailed it. I'm still working out TTL's Malta situation (which is worse not better due to the absence of the Wasp) but I'm leaning towards a similar result at Gazala and an offensive towards El Alamein. GYMNAST still occurs roughly around the same time fortunately as it was an independent development.

Oof. But that which does not kill the TL makes it stronger. (Which is impressive, considering its established strength.)

In any case, you get a Hemingway KillYourDarlings ribbon.

And let this be a lesson to all of us: do the research in the right order. Before investing time in a TL element, confirm its prerequisites. (Which may not be temporally ahead of it. If the point of A is that it would precede B - but B is impossible - don't bother with A.)

To be fair I'm only off by a couple of feet...

I don't think so. It makes sense if you want to be efficient. Don't spend time researching B, if B requires A, research A first. I've read whole books on stuff just to find out I can't use any of the info in my writing.

This is only applicable if you're trying to be efficient in your research. If you don't care, then it doesn't matter. But it is good advice if you do, and not something a lot of people figure out until they've wasted a book or two of research.

Reading the books was still enjoyable, but not efficient.

I didn't take it as snarky. It's something that happens in AH and in life. You make decisions based on incomplete information and sometimes you find information that completes the picture in a very different way than you were expecting.

 

[ViperKing]

Not that this matters now, but for the sake of argument...

I appreciate it, but I'm having a hard time seeing it. RN heavy units got nowhere near Malta in OTL. Churchill wanted to pull elements of the Far Eastern Fleet in to the Med to escort a westbound Malta convoy in May 1942 and Somerville totally shut him down. AFAIK the RN Admirals had a decent fear of the LW/RA in the Central Med and did their best not to risk their heavy assets.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Ocean_raid

http://www.navweaps.com/index_oob/OOB_WWII_Pacific/OOB_WWII_Indian_Ocean.htm

Keep in mind, in OTL Somerville had lost 8 major warships or auxiliary warships, and at least 23 merchant vessels in the Indian Ocean region, not to mention the loss of numerous land based aircraft and damages to port facilities in Ceylon thanks to Japanese carrier and cruiser raiding forces.

Here, those attacks have never taken place, and thanks to determined US defenses around Wake Island, the Japanese no longer have a carrier force to speak of.

Aside from the invasion of Madagascar, which might be able to be moved up a week or two ITTL, the Far Eastern Fleet really isn't in any sort of danger at all of being attacked, but really isn't in much of a position to do anything. Historically the main forces of the Far Eastern Fleet where pulled out to support operations in the Med later in 1942, so here with a greatly reduced threat by the Japanese, the possibility of pulling ships back a few months sooner might not be impossible.

The Admirals of the RN may still not want to send their ships into danger, even with carriers to provide air support, but the possibility of having a large fleet in being based out of Alexandria or another port in Egypt isn't exactly something the Germans and Italians can ignore. As long as they've got fuel and ammo, having two carriers and a lot of large surface units based out of Alexandria is something even Rommel would have to take into consideration, as that opens the risk of his forces operating along the coast coming under naval gunfire.

 

[Fearless Leader]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Ocean_raid

http://www.navweaps.com/index_oob/OOB_WWII_Pacific/OOB_WWII_Indian_Ocean.htm

Keep in mind, in OTL Somerville had lost 8 major warships or auxiliary warships, and at least 23 merchant vessels in the Indian Ocean region, not to mention the loss of numerous land based aircraft and damages to port facilities in Ceylon thanks to Japanese carrier and cruiser raiding forces.

Here, those attacks have never taken place, and thanks to determined US defenses around Wake Island, the Japanese no longer have a carrier force to speak of.

Aside from the invasion of Madagascar, which might be able to be moved up a week or two ITTL, the Far Eastern Fleet really isn't in any sort of danger at all of being attacked, but really isn't in much of a position to do anything. Historically the main forces of the Far Eastern Fleet where pulled out to support operations in the Med later in 1942, so here with a greatly reduced threat by the Japanese, the possibility of pulling ships back a few months sooner might not be impossible.

The Admirals of the RN may still not want to send their ships into danger, even with carriers to provide air support, but the possibility of having a large fleet in being based out of Alexandria or another port in Egypt isn't exactly something the Germans and Italians can ignore. As long as they've got fuel and ammo, having two carriers and a lot of large surface units based out of Alexandria is something even Rommel would have to take into consideration, as that opens the risk of his forces operating along the coast coming under naval gunfire.

...and having the entire Regia Aeronautica as well as a good chunk of the Luftwaffe on standby on Crete and around Malta isn't enough of a precaution?

Also "8 major warships" lost in the Indian Ocean Raid is hardly accurate. Only the Hermes, Dorsetshire, and Cornwall were "major warships" and all of them were obsolete. Even the DD's lost in the operation were old and in disrepair.

Somerville's fleet was more or less intact after the raid and he shot down Churchill's proposal to have them escort a supply convoy into Malta hard. I fail to see how having a few more old, slow, poorly protected ships would impact his decision.

That being said, I'm beginning to sense a pattern here where you fail to address any of the seemingly valid points I'm bringing up. How is this constructive?

 

[cubefreak123]

The Malta post has been officially retconned so arguing about its plausibility is a moot point. Continuing to dispute it is likely to only serve as a distraction from research and writing for the TL. Can we not take our opinions on the issue and set them aside?

 

[GTStinger]

With the loss of the Ryujo, the Andaman Islands might still be in British hands. Couple that with no Indian Ocean Raid and Somerville's force is looking for something to do.
Madagascar seems to be driven by worries the IJN would start basing vessels there, less of a concern in ATL.

I could see Churchill advocating a raid on Crete or something else daring. Indomitable and Formidable stirring things up off Sumatra or Java would probably be more practical.

With no Guadalcanal, would more amphibious resources be available for North Africa?