A surviving Kingdom of Yugoslavia to the present

[TheWitheredStriker]

I've been searching for a way to get Yugoslavia to survive to the present day as a kingdom, so with the monarchy intact. Federalization is fair game and I think it is necessary for the country's survival. I've come across many suggestions, including a longer and different reign of King Alexander I, a longer regency of Prince Paul, or the lack of the 1941 coup. I believe the latter has the most potential, but I'm not really sure 1) how the 1941 coup could be prevented, and 2) how WWII would evolve afterwards. I've heard things like "nothing changes" but also "Operation Barbarossa would change", and some of my friends suggested that the Greek Civil War could change since the WAllies were mainly motivated to send support after Yugoslavia became communist.

I must admit that 20th century history and Yugoslavia are not my area of main expertise, which is why I'm asking for some pointers here.

 

[Bregil]

Another possible PoD (although fraught with uncertainty) would be the Chetniks receiving equal or greater backing from the Allies as the Partisans. They were hard-core monarchists and definitely trended towards Serbo-nationalism but Mihailović was able to mostly reign them in so long as it looked like there was a possibility of winning the post-war. It was only after it became blatantly clear that the Allies were backing the Partisans that things started to really get ugly.

This PoD would require (at the very least) a change regarding Kim Philby's career (either him getting caught as a Soviet spy or simply assigned somewhere else). More than anyone else, he was responsible for promoting the Communist Partisans and downplaying Chetnik accomplishments. He did his best to ensure that Churchill saw the Communists as a viable and legitimate force fighting and succeeding against the Germans while the Chetniks seemed to be hunkering down and/or collaborating instead of fighting.

There is, of course, the "tiny little problem" of the USSR showing up on their borders at some point. Historically, they didn't invade as they viewed Tito as an ally. It's less certain they would be so accommodating to a restored royalist regime. The question at that point is if they would be willing to invade a country with a massive, experienced and supplied resistance network already in place.

 

[West234]

If Mussolini never invaded Greece against Hitler’s wishes they would probably stay neutral in the war they would have to bend to the wims of the Germans but hitler would not force them to actually join the war preferring to focus on the war with the Soviets instead of getting involved in the Balkens. This would prevent the 1941 coup and keep Yugoslavia as a tentatively neutral power. The main problems for Yugoslavia would be Italy and the Soviets eventually. Mussolini had desires of annexing parts of Yugoslavia and in order to avoid invasion they would probably be forced to hand over some of the Dalmatian territories to the Italians kind of like what Romania did with Hungary. And the second problem for them would be the Soviets even if they stayed technically neutral they would be acting a lot more like a power in the war involved in giving the Germans resources and Generally whatever else they wanted kind of like Sweden. The Soviets will probably just invade and take over Yougoslavia just like they did with Bulgaria who they technically were not at war with. In order to avoid this now is probably when you need the pro allied coup to happen as a reaction to the advance of the Soviets and for Yugoslavia to switch sides.

 

[Lalli]

If Mussolini never invaded Greece against Hitler’s wishes they would probably stay neutral in the war they would have to bend to the wims of the Germans but hitler would not force them to actually join the war preferring to focus on the war with the Soviets instead of getting involved in the Balkens. This would prevent the 1941 coup and keep Yugoslavia as a tentatively neutral power. The main problems for Yugoslavia would be Italy and the Soviets eventually. Mussolini had desires of annexing parts of Yugoslavia and in order to avoid invasion they would probably be forced to hand over some of the Dalmatian territories to the Italians kind of like what Romania did with Hungary. And the second problem for them would be the Soviets even if they stayed technically neutral they would be acting a lot more like a power in the war involved in giving the Germans resources and Generally whatever else they wanted kind of like Sweden. The Soviets will probably just invade and take over Yougoslavia just like they did with Bulgaria who they technically were not at war with. In order to avoid this now is probably when you need the pro allied coup to happen as a reaction to the advance of the Soviets and for Yugoslavia to switch sides.

Even if you manage retain Yugoslavian monarchy through WW2 its problems wouldn't are over. Multiple nationalists would still continue destabilisation of the kingdom and there is still Tito and his communists. And even if Tito is killed during WW2 some other would take his place.

 

[West234]

Even if you manage retain Yugoslavian monarchy through WW2 its problems wouldn't are over. Multiple nationalists would still continue destabilisation of the kingdom and there is still Tito and his communists. And even if Tito is killed during WW2 some other would take his place.

True and it is a bit unrealistic that just everything goes right for the monarchists miraculously I do think though that there is a decent chance of the monarchy staying around if they stayed neutral in the war. Firstly the country would be relatively unscathed by the war and the new popular prince paul would be in power. Also the communists movement would not have gotten nearly as big a boost of popularity as they did from the war in our timeline and the Americans would be there to help prop up them as a bulwark against the Soviets.

 

[Lalli]

True and it is a bit unrealistic that just everything goes right for the monarchists miraculously I do think though that there is a decent chance of the monarchy staying around if they stayed neutral in the war. Firstly the country would be relatively unscathed by the war and the new popular prince paul would be in power. Also the communists movement would not have gotten nearly as big a boost of popularity as they did from the war in our timeline and the Americans would be there to help prop up them as a bulwark against the Soviets.

Nationalists would still be problem. Of course some would are placated if Belgrade realises that it is better to give Croats, Slovenes and Macedonians some autonomy. But I don't know how much it would help.