I believe i once read something that said that Fredrick had offered his assistance to Maria Theresa in defending her right to the Habsburg crown lands in exchange for Silesia (or parts of it) now I am unsure of the validity of this and even if it had happened it would have been refused with good reason but for the sake of discussion say it does happen, Maria accepts (I'm mean she wouldn't bit bear with me) and Frederick takes the task seriously how does this effect a potential alt war of Austrian succession?
A Silesian Deal
- Thread starter JackLumber
- Start date
Austria wins handily. The Prussians had a high quality but untested army, so the French won't know what hit them. The disaster in Austrian Netherlands doesn't happen. This means the Austrians are in a better position to take on the Turks later, since resources used fighting the war of Austrian succession becomes resources used to suppress the truks. The fallout between Britain and Austria doesn't happen, which means the American Revolution is in trouble. It would be France vs GB and Austria on the continent. This means the British can fight in the 13 colonies indefinitely, although if the disaster at Saratoga does happen, they will likely lose patience first and peace out anyways. And super Hapsburg will stop the French Revolution Entirely (if Napoleon gets butterflied into not being French) or advance further and sack a few French cities (setting Napoleon back a bit assuming he comes into power) and they will perform a bit better in a War of the Third Coalition, if it is indeed the Third when it happens.
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Should they secure a victory that handily I'm sure the Austrians will seek to compensate themselves for the loss of Silesia, Bavaria seems like an obvious choice, anything else you could think of in terms of potential gains?
Maybe have France give the equivalent of 38 month of operating expenses in gold. This isn't exactly "compensation" for Silesia since in this timeline they explicitly gave it to Prussia/Brandenburg in exchange for Fritz's help. They would likely take a good 1/8 of Bavaria, or maybe demand the succession laws be bypassed and take Bavarian throne for a junior member of the Hapsburg family (a cadet branch, the senior branch is through Maria Theresa). It seems odd that a war started by one side not respecting the succession laws of Austria (confirmed by the Pragmatic Sanction papers and treaty guarantees) would result in Austria ignoring the succession of another state, but it can also be argued that Bavaria foriteted it's right when it violated a treaty with its feudal overlord. How lightly Bavaria gets off depends on diplomacy, and Hapsburg geneocity, although it might not be TOO hard for them to get off easily. France is going to have to give up Lorraine, which they took in exchange for approving Pragmatic Sanction (which they didn't DO)
I could definately see Lorraine being taken back do you think they could loose anything else territorially?
The rich Norman provinces would be a huge punishment to France, but the Hapsburgs have no claim to outright take it. Perhaps the treaty can specify a demilitarization of the whole region and allow 3 British forts, 2 Austrian forts, and 1 Dutch Fort to be built there. This means any time France goes to war, the whole region will be looted to kingdom come.
Perhaps they might decide to take 3 channel ports from the French and make them part of Austrian Netherlands. I can also see them forcing France to pay for turning the outdated medieval style fortifications into 1600s or maybe even 1700s style fortifications.
Perhaps they might decide to take 3 channel ports from the French and make them part of Austrian Netherlands. I can also see them forcing France to pay for turning the outdated medieval style fortifications into 1600s or maybe even 1700s style fortifications.
Could the English be able to dig up a claim on Normandy? Assuming they would even want it.
What about Provence or Rousillon? Weaken Frances southern border and inhibit them from intefering in Italy.
Perhaps, I don't know if they're was anyone to put on that throne, you need a claim to do basically anything back then
Spain had a claim via Aragon IIRC, also it was a lapsed Imperial fief. It's flimsy, but far more likely than returning Normandy to England and far more likely to stick for similar reasons.
So was the Hohenzollern claim to Silesia, as long as you have the claim what matters is if you can enforce it with steel.
Exactly. The point being that if Austria is in opposition to demand it they have ample justification.
My question is, how much would Frederick actually contribute? His army was one of, if not the best in Europe, but who's to say he would actually use, just give Austria trinket support in the war? It's not like doing a tactic like that is unheard of, especially in Europe.
If he wants to get all of Silesia he's going to have to work for it. Assuming maria Theresa has half a brain she stipulates that what Prussia gets is contingent upon commensurate Austrian gains elsewhere.
It is an interesting to think about, I'm sure it could become the center of a later conflict
I Specfically state in the OP that he takes the task seriously, as in he is going to march is army against Maria's enemies and enforce her claims.
unprincipled peter
Donor
would there even be an alt war of Austrian succession? Louis xv thought Frederick was mad for attacking Austria, and it was the shock of seeing Frederick achieving a massive early victory (Mollwitz, I believe) that made various countries think Austria was weak and ripe for the taking. Sans that victory, coupled with a Prussian/Austrian alliance, France may decide the time was not ripe to diminish Austria. No one really cared whether Maria ascended the throne. they saw it as an opportunity to take from Austria. You have to remember that Frederick is the one who started the WoAS, and France only joined in after it looked like he might win. Without Frederick starting a war, there may not be a war to win.
However, France may have joined in with Spain in the war of Jenkins Ear. A relatively minor war, Britain had just suffered a setback and it was feared in 1740/41 that France was preparing to invaded England. Karl died, Frederick attacked, and France decided to go after Austria instead. no (or a delayed) WoAS might see France invade England when England was at a vulnerable moment. If successful, this knocks Britain out of any war for a few years. this means no subsidies for Austria or Prussia, and if France decides to attack them next, A and P may win militarily, but lose because they run out of money.
However, France may have joined in with Spain in the war of Jenkins Ear. A relatively minor war, Britain had just suffered a setback and it was feared in 1740/41 that France was preparing to invaded England. Karl died, Frederick attacked, and France decided to go after Austria instead. no (or a delayed) WoAS might see France invade England when England was at a vulnerable moment. If successful, this knocks Britain out of any war for a few years. this means no subsidies for Austria or Prussia, and if France decides to attack them next, A and P may win militarily, but lose because they run out of money.
We are assuming someone else is initiating the conflict, I know I didn't specify this in the OP but it wouldn't make sense for Maria to give Fritz Silesia without a clear and present threat but you are correct without Frederick kicking things off the war could prove a nonstart unless we find someone else ambitious enough to fill his spot.
unprincipled peter
Donor
I was wondering why Maria would give up Silesia so readily. It really is too much to ask, but for the sake of the game, I'll play along . There's really only France and Russia who might attack Austria. Russia was busy with Sweden, and pro Austria, at the time, so you have to avoid that if you want them to be the instigator. That leaves France. they could, as the did OTL, get the Spanish involved, and a few minor powers, such as Bavaria. Although France participated OTL for a few years without declaring war, it's hard to see them as aggressors without a declaration ATL. (edit: I suppose it's possible France could incite Bavaria to be the aggressor and not officially declare war, but I don't see a minor power getting pushed into starting the war without full fledged support). England likely declares war, too, so you have France, Bavaria, and Spain (all who were fairly inept militarily about that time) vs England, Prussia, Austria and an assortment of minor powers. France/Spain have the edge in the navy, and if they were smart, they'd go for a England first policy, but OTL, they were a Austria first policy, and since they start the war against Austria, you have to assume they combine the navies to hold their own on the seas while pursuing a continental military aggression. A second smart thing would be to take Minorca, but Spain under Farnese was too intent on capturing Italian lands than reclaiming Minorca. No reason to see a change in policy there, and France isn't going to push for it if they can't use it as a bargaining chip. You likely see France, Bavaria, Spain flounder as they did OTL, at best. With Prussia against them, they might lose some major battles. Britain likely takes Louisbourg, and possibly more. All around, I see Austria, Prussia, England winning this war rather handily. But, while not technically ASB, it is far fetched. Austria would easily blunt F,B,S just as they did OTL, and have no reason to give in to Prussia. Frederick would sieze the opportunity to take Silesia and then bow out of the war, just as he did OTL. If, for some strange reason Austria did give up Silesia, Frederick would not go gung ho vs France, but do just enough just long enough until Austria vacates Silesia, then he drops out, and we have pretty much OTL war.
Actually IF MT agrees to cede Silesia the whole War of the Austrian Sucession is butterflied away as it was Frederick who began hostilities.
If Prussia does not invade France (and Bavaria) might wage war, but they would be opposed by Austria/Prussia and Britain - likely enough to prevent the Nyphenburg treaty between France and Bavaria (and Bourbon Spain)
IN effect the Bavarian Elector will probably not be able to invade Bohemia and being crowned King of Bohemia - so the Electoral College will (probably) be 3 Wittlesbach vs 6 pro Habsburg (including Hannover, Prussia and Saxony - the latter maybe not)
If Prussia does not invade France (and Bavaria) might wage war, but they would be opposed by Austria/Prussia and Britain - likely enough to prevent the Nyphenburg treaty between France and Bavaria (and Bourbon Spain)
IN effect the Bavarian Elector will probably not be able to invade Bohemia and being crowned King of Bohemia - so the Electoral College will (probably) be 3 Wittlesbach vs 6 pro Habsburg (including Hannover, Prussia and Saxony - the latter maybe not)