A Shift in Priorities
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Tyr Anazasi
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How will the other states react when they get to know that their quarter was leveled as well?
Thats the risk you take when living in a city in a country who are in a war with a nation who is bombing the citys you cant really make a fuzz about it.
Actually the mushroom cloud and 'smoke' wouldn't be dark at all. A nighttime mushroom cloud would be lit up like something out of Dante's inferno as the all the burning debris got suck up into the atmosphere along with the mushroom cloud. Lightning probably too.
The end of the world has been delayed two weeks due to lack of experienced trumpeters.
(undisclosed doomsday expert)
Ever since the First Opium War there had been a strong international presence in Shanghai. After 1933, under the xenophobic Feng administration, all foreigners had been compelled to leave; but since January 1940, when Feng Hào finally had been brought down, they had returned in force. Due to the special conditions created by the Far East War, the bulk of the aliens sojourning in Shanghai had been Japanese, but there also had been massive British and US American contingents around. However, there hardly could be a nation on earth that had not had some of its citizens living in Shanghai. – Matryoshka nuked them all into oblivion.
In the US, where the loss of 12,457 expatriates and travelling businessmen had to be mourned, the razing of Shanghai was condemned universally. Albeit, there was a certain unease, because both Russia and China were generally considered stable democracies. How then was it possible that they were locked in a savage war of annihilation? Most US Americans would readily agree that Russia was the aggressor and was behaving with extraordinary ferocity. The Russians had arbitrarily started the war, they had conducted pitiless ethnic cleansing – and they were currently destroying Chinese cities and indiscriminately killing civilians. The employment of a nuclear bomb was only the apogee of these cruelties. Nevertheless, Matryoshka terrified the Americans. Newsreels about the horror that once had been Shanghai became quickly available. – Chén Gōngbó’s government unconditionally had opened up to the international media and allowed them to report about Russian atrocities and China’s valiant struggle against the savage aggressor. Madame Soong May-ling was sent to the US as special envoy – and was able to mobilise overwhelming popular support for her country. – President Patton, vociferously lamenting the weakness and backwardness of the US armed forces, was able to snatch a considerable increase of funding from Congress, not only for the hitherto stagnant US nuclear programme but also for procuring new hardware. If bombers today could hit targets 2,500 miles away, tomorrow the US might be in range of aircraft taking off in Siberia or Europe. The US required an efficient air defence system.
Japan had lost approximately 74,500 people in Shanghai. This was grievous, but hardly worse than the number of victims incurred during a single Russian fire bomb attack on any Japanese city. What caused panic in Japan was the menace that the Russians might drop the next super bomb on Nippon. They had demonstrated constant and implacable hostility opposite Japan; what should keep them from nuking Kyoto or any other city still intact? – Japanese citizens were well disciplined, they would not easily protest or riot. But fear and terror were now nagging at their morale. This was obvious even to the ruling men, as their families were also hag-ridden. Consequently, foreign minister Hirota Kōki was hurriedly sent to Nanjing. His mission was to persuade the Chinese ally to accept the Russian peace offer.
(undisclosed doomsday expert)
Ever since the First Opium War there had been a strong international presence in Shanghai. After 1933, under the xenophobic Feng administration, all foreigners had been compelled to leave; but since January 1940, when Feng Hào finally had been brought down, they had returned in force. Due to the special conditions created by the Far East War, the bulk of the aliens sojourning in Shanghai had been Japanese, but there also had been massive British and US American contingents around. However, there hardly could be a nation on earth that had not had some of its citizens living in Shanghai. – Matryoshka nuked them all into oblivion.
In the US, where the loss of 12,457 expatriates and travelling businessmen had to be mourned, the razing of Shanghai was condemned universally. Albeit, there was a certain unease, because both Russia and China were generally considered stable democracies. How then was it possible that they were locked in a savage war of annihilation? Most US Americans would readily agree that Russia was the aggressor and was behaving with extraordinary ferocity. The Russians had arbitrarily started the war, they had conducted pitiless ethnic cleansing – and they were currently destroying Chinese cities and indiscriminately killing civilians. The employment of a nuclear bomb was only the apogee of these cruelties. Nevertheless, Matryoshka terrified the Americans. Newsreels about the horror that once had been Shanghai became quickly available. – Chén Gōngbó’s government unconditionally had opened up to the international media and allowed them to report about Russian atrocities and China’s valiant struggle against the savage aggressor. Madame Soong May-ling was sent to the US as special envoy – and was able to mobilise overwhelming popular support for her country. – President Patton, vociferously lamenting the weakness and backwardness of the US armed forces, was able to snatch a considerable increase of funding from Congress, not only for the hitherto stagnant US nuclear programme but also for procuring new hardware. If bombers today could hit targets 2,500 miles away, tomorrow the US might be in range of aircraft taking off in Siberia or Europe. The US required an efficient air defence system.
Japan had lost approximately 74,500 people in Shanghai. This was grievous, but hardly worse than the number of victims incurred during a single Russian fire bomb attack on any Japanese city. What caused panic in Japan was the menace that the Russians might drop the next super bomb on Nippon. They had demonstrated constant and implacable hostility opposite Japan; what should keep them from nuking Kyoto or any other city still intact? – Japanese citizens were well disciplined, they would not easily protest or riot. But fear and terror were now nagging at their morale. This was obvious even to the ruling men, as their families were also hag-ridden. Consequently, foreign minister Hirota Kōki was hurriedly sent to Nanjing. His mission was to persuade the Chinese ally to accept the Russian peace offer.
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One other point - Chinese culture is very strong on the leadership needing to be seen by the masses as having the "mandate of heaven". As long as that is perceived as the case, the Chinese masses are very tolerant but once the mandate is seen as removed, the masses see the leadership as illegitimate. The nuking of Shanghai and the losses there, on top of the other city destruction could very well convince large segments of the Chinese population that the mandate has been removed. The Chinese leadership is well aware of this possibility, and may very well be motivated to find an acceptable peace quickly to avoid being tossed out. After all, for all the nationalism the Chinese "claim" to Eastern Siberia is pretty shaky and it had been de facto part of Russia for a long time before its recent acquisition (by war) from Russia. A hard sell to continue the war under these circumstances when the "customers" are the Chinese masses.
Wow. I don't really have much to say on the destruction of Shanghai. It's awful, I guess that sums it up.
About the foreigners in Shanghai, I very much doubt that the reaction from their home countries will be, "they were in a war zone, they knew the risks." I'm also not expecting a declaration of war on Russia, either; that would be absurd. But it is a wake up call. It reinforces that modern warfare explicitly means death to civilians, even moreso than death to soldiers. The political consequences of that should be staggering. Most everyone wants to live. And those who don't generally don't form into a coherent voting bloc.
About the foreigners in Shanghai, I very much doubt that the reaction from their home countries will be, "they were in a war zone, they knew the risks." I'm also not expecting a declaration of war on Russia, either; that would be absurd. But it is a wake up call. It reinforces that modern warfare explicitly means death to civilians, even moreso than death to soldiers. The political consequences of that should be staggering. Most everyone wants to live. And those who don't generally don't form into a coherent voting bloc.
How small the vastest of human catastrophes may seem at a distance of a few million miles.
(Herbert George Wells)
Great Britain had lost 9,592 nationals in Shanghai, quite many of them qualified controllers and wardens tasked with invigorating China trade or supervising the fleet of merchantmen shuttling in armaments from the US – both purposes being often complimentary, as British nationally owned companies in many cases were offering cheaper products than the US manufacturers; one just had to open the eyes of the Chinese customers to the possibilities offered… And, most regrettably, the MI6 regional headquarters, newly established in1940, had perished as well. – While the reaction of the controlled media was kept rather muted, trying to trivialize and belittle the first use of a nuclear bomb, behind closed doors, the SUP leadership was appalled: a private capitalist company in capitalist and imperialist Russia was producing nuclear bombs – and the bellicose and unscrupulous Russian government had dropped one on a cosmopolitan city, committing coldblooded wholesale murder. – The implication was that Britain had to speed up her own nuclear programme; socialist advancement had to be defended against the encroachment of capitalists and imperialists. Until now, the programme hadn’t produced anything useful. After lengthy discussion it was decided the ask this maverick American-German Jew Oppenheimer to take things in hand. Sir Ernest Rutherford was too sportive and too academic to get an industrial project going. He would – of course – remain the figurehead, but Oppenheimer should now work out the dirty details. At least Oppenheimer’s wife was a trustworthy socialist, even if the man himself was difficult to fathom. – But whatever one initiated today, the fact remained that the Russian arch-capitalists already possessed a working nuclear weapons programme – and that Britain was years behind… And it was hardly a consolation that the nuclear programmes of Germany, the US and France hardly seemed to be more advanced than Britain’s effort.
Germany had lost ‘only’ 342 citizens in Shanghai. This was due to the traditional orientation of the German industry towards Guangzhou triggered by General von Bauer. – Nevertheless, Shanghai got universal and detailed coverage in the German media – and caused wide-spread public rallies, some of which were purely calls for peace – but most of them clearly showed an anti-Russian focus. The GDNP and the DVP were seen jumping quickly on the bandwagon, as did the SAD on the other side of the political spectrum. Inside the PDS, the wings were disunited: the left was joining the rallies – and often combining with the SAD ultras, while the right was holding back. – In the Wels Cabinet, the situation was comparable: Ruth Fischer and Otto Grotewohl were proposing sanctions against Russia, while the other ministers were trying to keep things on a businesslike level. One had no quarrel with Russia, and no deal in the Far East War. But by and by, emotions were boiling over and the media were taking up and amplifying the anti-Russian tune.
The German scientists were alarmed as well. While one had known that Rozhdestvensky was serious about building the nuclear bomb, one hadn’t anticipated that they’d succeed so fast. – There was some speculation about the nature of the bomb, and it was Lise Meitner, who finally came up with a theory that explained how the Russians could have sped ahead. – They must be operating with highly enriched uranium; this was a wasteful way to construct a bomb but enabled quick results. As a consequence, Meitner predicted that Rozhdestvensky could impossibly have developed a working uranium machine. All their precious enriched uranium was consumed for the bomb – or rather the bombs, because possessing only one wasn’t enough. – This was soon backed by information that the Außendienst had bought at a dear price from the Seichl: one now knew the sites where Rozhdestvensky were conducting their programme. In Kalatay uraniferous material was processed to uranium hexafluoride, which then, in Nevyansk, was enriched to weapons grade uranium. The third site, Berezniki, most probably originally intended as location for the uranium machine because situated at the bank of River Kama, was still under construction. – Reading Meitner’s analysis, Admiral Hermann Boehm could only nod in agreement. The Russians might have the lead right now, but they were running down a dead-end road.
(Herbert George Wells)
Great Britain had lost 9,592 nationals in Shanghai, quite many of them qualified controllers and wardens tasked with invigorating China trade or supervising the fleet of merchantmen shuttling in armaments from the US – both purposes being often complimentary, as British nationally owned companies in many cases were offering cheaper products than the US manufacturers; one just had to open the eyes of the Chinese customers to the possibilities offered… And, most regrettably, the MI6 regional headquarters, newly established in1940, had perished as well. – While the reaction of the controlled media was kept rather muted, trying to trivialize and belittle the first use of a nuclear bomb, behind closed doors, the SUP leadership was appalled: a private capitalist company in capitalist and imperialist Russia was producing nuclear bombs – and the bellicose and unscrupulous Russian government had dropped one on a cosmopolitan city, committing coldblooded wholesale murder. – The implication was that Britain had to speed up her own nuclear programme; socialist advancement had to be defended against the encroachment of capitalists and imperialists. Until now, the programme hadn’t produced anything useful. After lengthy discussion it was decided the ask this maverick American-German Jew Oppenheimer to take things in hand. Sir Ernest Rutherford was too sportive and too academic to get an industrial project going. He would – of course – remain the figurehead, but Oppenheimer should now work out the dirty details. At least Oppenheimer’s wife was a trustworthy socialist, even if the man himself was difficult to fathom. – But whatever one initiated today, the fact remained that the Russian arch-capitalists already possessed a working nuclear weapons programme – and that Britain was years behind… And it was hardly a consolation that the nuclear programmes of Germany, the US and France hardly seemed to be more advanced than Britain’s effort.
Germany had lost ‘only’ 342 citizens in Shanghai. This was due to the traditional orientation of the German industry towards Guangzhou triggered by General von Bauer. – Nevertheless, Shanghai got universal and detailed coverage in the German media – and caused wide-spread public rallies, some of which were purely calls for peace – but most of them clearly showed an anti-Russian focus. The GDNP and the DVP were seen jumping quickly on the bandwagon, as did the SAD on the other side of the political spectrum. Inside the PDS, the wings were disunited: the left was joining the rallies – and often combining with the SAD ultras, while the right was holding back. – In the Wels Cabinet, the situation was comparable: Ruth Fischer and Otto Grotewohl were proposing sanctions against Russia, while the other ministers were trying to keep things on a businesslike level. One had no quarrel with Russia, and no deal in the Far East War. But by and by, emotions were boiling over and the media were taking up and amplifying the anti-Russian tune.
The German scientists were alarmed as well. While one had known that Rozhdestvensky was serious about building the nuclear bomb, one hadn’t anticipated that they’d succeed so fast. – There was some speculation about the nature of the bomb, and it was Lise Meitner, who finally came up with a theory that explained how the Russians could have sped ahead. – They must be operating with highly enriched uranium; this was a wasteful way to construct a bomb but enabled quick results. As a consequence, Meitner predicted that Rozhdestvensky could impossibly have developed a working uranium machine. All their precious enriched uranium was consumed for the bomb – or rather the bombs, because possessing only one wasn’t enough. – This was soon backed by information that the Außendienst had bought at a dear price from the Seichl: one now knew the sites where Rozhdestvensky were conducting their programme. In Kalatay uraniferous material was processed to uranium hexafluoride, which then, in Nevyansk, was enriched to weapons grade uranium. The third site, Berezniki, most probably originally intended as location for the uranium machine because situated at the bank of River Kama, was still under construction. – Reading Meitner’s analysis, Admiral Hermann Boehm could only nod in agreement. The Russians might have the lead right now, but they were running down a dead-end road.
Possible signs of that anticipated political breach on the German left? If Russophobia is rampant on both the far left and far right, it could be the perfect excuse for all parties in between to put their differences aside and form a government. Of course then Germany and Europe run the risk of remaining unprepared for a Russian attack.
Though at this point I doubt one will ever come. Even a favorable peace for Russia will leave them weakened and anti-war for the foreseeable future. They won't recover particularly fast, considering they have no trading partners and haven't exactly endeared themselves to anyone. And each year that slips by without reconquest of lost territory decreases the likelihood the Russian people will ever want to risk war over lands they no longer feel connected to.
Would the Russians be willing to give up Mongolia at this point? I think that's shot to the top of Chinese demands, with a stark DMZ second on the list.
But of course we still haven't heard whether the Chinese are suing for peace or not. Anyone want to guess how likely that will be?
Though at this point I doubt one will ever come. Even a favorable peace for Russia will leave them weakened and anti-war for the foreseeable future. They won't recover particularly fast, considering they have no trading partners and haven't exactly endeared themselves to anyone. And each year that slips by without reconquest of lost territory decreases the likelihood the Russian people will ever want to risk war over lands they no longer feel connected to.
Would the Russians be willing to give up Mongolia at this point? I think that's shot to the top of Chinese demands, with a stark DMZ second on the list.
But of course we still haven't heard whether the Chinese are suing for peace or not. Anyone want to guess how likely that will be?
Very likely since they are in the process of losing their japanese ally and with that the control of the seas and the ability to reconquer karfuto. It may take a second bomb for them to finally sue for peace but i hope not. They will probably want to get out cheaply that is the Primoskora oblast back to russia the rest back to china maybe if the Russians push the issue Mongolia may become independent as a buffer of sorts.
In OTL Robert Oppenheimer began to have serious misgivings about developing nuclear weapons. In TTL does being a virtual prisoner of the British government increase those misgivings to the point where he takes action?
The detail that sort of got glossed over is that most of the foreign nationals killed in Shanghai were there to either sell weapons to China or facilitate the shipment of weapons into China. A substantial number killed would have been the best and brightest of American business while still at the level of middle management. Basically just what percentage of the Harvard and Yale MBA grads from the Classes of 1930 through 1941 just got nuked?
Bonus points if Prescott Bush just happened to be in Shanghai. I know it's unlikely but that would only be slightly less delicious than having him caught in a cloud of nerve gas outside a particular town in Poland.
The detail that sort of got glossed over is that most of the foreign nationals killed in Shanghai were there to either sell weapons to China or facilitate the shipment of weapons into China. A substantial number killed would have been the best and brightest of American business while still at the level of middle management. Basically just what percentage of the Harvard and Yale MBA grads from the Classes of 1930 through 1941 just got nuked?
Bonus points if Prescott Bush just happened to be in Shanghai. I know it's unlikely but that would only be slightly less delicious than having him caught in a cloud of nerve gas outside a particular town in Poland.
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Well a U-235 bomb is not a dead end, just not as efficient as plutonium which the Russians will get to soon enough. I'm afraid that the Russians are going to have to nuke another city to get China to make peace. Germany is going to kick their program in to high gear, and the USA will get moving. The Uk is problematic - Oppenheimer was very reluctant to continue work after he saw what the US bombs did in Japan, this is much worse and good odds he will say no to further bomb work. Am sure the "controllers" will do their best to force the goose to lay golden eggs, but this is never easy. Also if being forced Oppy may try to get word to USA that he is being held captive, Britain will then have to deal with a USA that is not happy with one of its significant scientists being held captive.
In this TL looks like you're going to have a bunch of nuclear powers pretty quickly (within 5 yrs): Russia, Germany, Britain, USA, Japan, China. Wonder if the Heymshtot will want to try and get one...
In this TL looks like you're going to have a bunch of nuclear powers pretty quickly (within 5 yrs): Russia, Germany, Britain, USA, Japan, China. Wonder if the Heymshtot will want to try and get one...
In absolute terms, I don't suppose it's particularly UN-likely either, though. Maybe just on the edge of the affected area, enough to drop his sperm count to single digits...ok that was pretty catty.
Starting as they are from last place, we might see a substantial political faction in the US go anti-nuclear and go holier-than-thou against the rest of the bomb-having world. The far-left FLP, more "Christian" factions of the centrist Conservative Party, and probably the libertarian FMP are likely candidates. I'd also expect the bourgeois social democrats in the Progressive Party to start out preaching this message, only to change their tune once the US actually have a bomb.
The US government is headed by the hard left right now (basically a few steps left of OTL New Dealers.) I'd expect the people to get a little antsy about that fact after Shanghai.
But in the immediate aftermath, it's hard to imagine how the US would react. 12,000 dead is of course way more than either Pearl Harbor or 9/11. It's still ridiculous to think anybody's declaring war on Russia after this (maybe if Patton had his dream army he'd try it.) But the US is gonna do something.
In absolute terms, I don't suppose it's particularly UN-likely either, though. Maybe just on the edge of the affected area, enough to drop his sperm count to single digits...ok that was pretty catty.
Actually that would be George H.W. Bush, I was thinking of his father who in OTL was involved in all sorts of ways with the Nazis including being a part owner what what became a death camp (the nerve gas joke involved that). Your idea on the other hand has a lot of merit. Preventing the conception of one of the worst Presidents in American history.
Fully agree here.
Since the US are the biggest supplier of the Chinese war machine right now, and therefore the biggest creditor as well, they have quite some leverage. ITTL it's also established to provide "volunteers" to belligerent countries, which could be used as cadres for the expansion and modernization of the US forces after the war.
Of course, all that depends on whether the Chinese continue the war. IMHO, a single bomb won't be enough. The Chinese will be arguing whether it was a single shot or not. The Russians must employ another one. With the rushed development I wouldn't be surprised if the second bomb fails, which in turn would have major consequences. We'll have to wait...
there is one thing that surprises me, is that the heymshtot intelligence service still tries to drive hard deal on important information like that.
You would think sharing this kind of info asap would be very important.
After all they are dependant on germany for their protection, and when the day comes that they need that protection germany might return the favour, and then force huge concessions out of them.
You would think sharing this kind of info asap would be very important.
After all they are dependant on germany for their protection, and when the day comes that they need that protection germany might return the favour, and then force huge concessions out of them.
But these nukes arent really rushed the first one was the one they blew up on the ground and it was lucky that it even went off. These second generation nukes have been made with all the experience learned from the first generation. They could have nuked a city even earlier but decided to wait until they have more operational since one may not be enough. A uranium type nuke is a really simple design really the us in otl did not even test little boy in advance since they were certain it would work.
I don't think anybody is about to declare war on Russia, even though the Russians have killed tens of thousands of foreign nationals in Shanghai with the nuke, but what about the possibility of economic sanctions?
Clearly, Russia cannot be allowed to believe that they would be able to get away with their actions, and since nearly all of the important countries of the world lost many people in Shanghai, there is a good chance that they could find consensus on that issue of sanctions.
I also agree with Monty Burns that a single bomb might not be enough to push China out of the war, especially if that bomb causes the entire world opinion to turn on Russia while China in turn now gets unlimited support not only from the US but also the rest of the world now.
Clearly, Russia cannot be allowed to believe that they would be able to get away with their actions, and since nearly all of the important countries of the world lost many people in Shanghai, there is a good chance that they could find consensus on that issue of sanctions.
I also agree with Monty Burns that a single bomb might not be enough to push China out of the war, especially if that bomb causes the entire world opinion to turn on Russia while China in turn now gets unlimited support not only from the US but also the rest of the world now.
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