Go Germany! Down with Amerreichkkka.
There is more industrialization ITTL but Rast have stated before that its only in USA there is a full scale motorization ongoing. The main transporter of goods in Europe is still Railroad. So there is not the same scale of large scale automobile production in Europe as in US.
I find it hard to believe that German middle Africa is as industrialized as US or Germany or even Italy ITTL, I would buy that it's at the same level as Greece or Portugal ITTL but that is still industrial after US and Germany (or even France or Hungary) even if their population is greater.
We should neither underestimate the factor of differences in industrial culture between USA and Germany in the scale of production. USA have a longer tradition of large scale mass production after the standardization (the famous Ford example is in every text book you can find, but it were all over US industry) while Weimar Germany (actually all of interwar Europe) didn't have any large scale standardizations and actually many times the industry resisted such reforms from the government. Its first after 1933 when the industry began to gear up for war that many American standardization reforms were adapted in different European countries. If you want a (in)famous example of this resistance of standardization you should look towards British ship industry and French automobile industry 1920-35 and compare it whit USA production (of course average out per worker and work hour). I don't think this differences from OTL is completely butterflied away ITTL.
I think also the access to cheap natural resources, labor and land to develop is a important differences. US have a large continent to draw resources from, cheap land and occupied countries to force cheap labor out from. Germany have to share the continents resources whit all the members in the CPMZ even if they can BUY advanced industrial goods from them, even if the Ottomans already is spending a lot of money already doing exactly this. They have a labor deficit in their industry already and the friends in the CPMZ should also have low unemployment as a result of this. So getting more labor for more production is going to be more expensive. They could draw natural resources and labor cheap from German middle Africa but this would detract from their effort to industrialize the area.
What I mean is that Germany alone is under a number of constraints to out produce USA that USA don't have in the same sense But if there is an all out war and a all out war production I think they both would be evenly matched for a short while until on off their economies collapses.
There is more industrialization ITTL but Rast have stated before that its only in USA there is a full scale motorization ongoing. The main transporter of goods in Europe is still Railroad. So there is not the same scale of large scale automobile production in Europe as in US.
I find it hard to believe that German middle Africa is as industrialized as US or Germany or even Italy ITTL, I would buy that it's at the same level as Greece or Portugal ITTL but that is still industrial after US and Germany (or even France or Hungary) even if their population is greater.
We should neither underestimate the factor of differences in industrial culture between USA and Germany in the scale of production. USA have a longer tradition of large scale mass production after the standardization (the famous Ford example is in every text book you can find, but it were all over US industry) while Weimar Germany (actually all of interwar Europe) didn't have any large scale standardizations and actually many times the industry resisted such reforms from the government. Its first after 1933 when the industry began to gear up for war that many American standardization reforms were adapted in different European countries. If you want a (in)famous example of this resistance of standardization you should look towards British ship industry and French automobile industry 1920-35 and compare it whit USA production (of course average out per worker and work hour). I don't think this differences from OTL is completely butterflied away ITTL.
I think also the access to cheap natural resources, labor and land to develop is a important differences. US have a large continent to draw resources from, cheap land and occupied countries to force cheap labor out from.
Germany have to share the continents resources whit all the members in the CPMZ even if they can BUY advanced industrial goods from them, even if the Ottomans already is spending a lot of money already doing exactly this. They have a labor deficit in their industry already and the friends in the CPMZ should also have low unemployment as a result of this. So getting more labor for more production is going to be more expensive. They could draw natural resources and labor cheap from German middle Africa but this would detract from their effort to industrialize the area.
What I mean is that Germany alone is under a number of constraints to out produce USA that USA don't have in the same sense But if there is an all out war and a all out war production I think they both would be evenly matched for a short while until on off their economies collapses.
Luxomburg has to be out of her mind if she thinks that Mittleafrikan industry can even hope to make up for the lost US market. I feel she's just saying that more out of her hatred for the US, and the way they treat the Africans than any objective analysis. Maybe its just me, but it just isn't worth completely alienating the US and initiating a possible decades long Cold War with them over the way they are treating the Africans in Liberia. In fact, it would be a foreign policy blunder of the highest order.
Yet perhaps the Germans have grown overconfident in their abilities after so many diplomatic successes since the end of the Great War, and don't fully think through how dangerous alienating the US can be. After all, people don't always make the rational choice. Though Chruchill is a evil boogeyman ITTL, he would not be wrong in saying that the Germans have strategic blindness.
Here is one instance where it could turn out extremely bad for the Germans. If the US loses to the Germans in Liberia, and the Chinese also fail in retaking Xinjiang against the Ottomans, who are of course a very close ally with Germany, then both countries will be seething with revenge and have a common enemy. With loss of the German market, the US will logically try and make up the difference using the Chinese market. Thus, we could potentially see a formal US-China alliance arrayed against Germany and the CPMZ, based on the premise of the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Both of these countries possess natural resources and manpower unlike anything the Germans and their allies can potentially match, and would be able to outproduce them easily.
If such an alliance were to occur, and if the Chinese can also drag along Japan and the other East Asian countries into an alliance with the US, it would be a nightmare for Germany and its allies. It could possibly lead to a potential showdown ITTL's WWII.
Like sternkempe said, I think we're over-estimating the level of Industry that currently exists in Mittleafrika. I mean, as recently as the end of the Great War, MittleAfrika didn't have that much industry at all, and in a little more of a decade that it can make up the difference in the lost US market is absolutely ridiculous. The fact is, that it is much more difficult to build up infastructure in a mostly wet, tropical environment, because of the labor costs involved, the maintenence costs, etc. I think that most of the current Mittleafrkian industries are concentrated in the larger cities like Togoland, and that those that live this contemporary lifestyle are limited to those elites. Not that the Germans aren't doing a bad job at it, but 10 years is too short a time to develop a strong middle class and a proletariat industrial working population.
Furthermore, while the Germans are stressing the need to instill federalism and other democratic values, its really the military that has the most prestige amongst all Mittleafrikans and the most developed and modernized institution of the colony; that's where the best and brightest Mittleafrikans are going into after all. That isn't to say that MittleAfrika is not miles and miles better off than OTL Africa, but lets not pretend that its a Great Power yet.
while the USA only have realy fought in mexico and the leasons they learnen there while usefull,
are realy not the leasons they needed to learn to fight another great power.
Agree again.
Mittelafrica is nothing without Germanz.
And 10 years is too little for any greater result. Even for Germanz.
So, maybe 30- 50 years, but 10 years- NO WAY.
all i am saying production is nice and all but if you produce more than the other guy but your basicaly producing the wrong stuff
or stuff thats realy not all that great or you use it in the wrong way you are still going to loose.
Well they would first have to extend the existing colonial administration, next they have to bring people up to a minimal level of living, and then the work can start. (the present problem I see is that it's like many developing countries today, they can produce highly educated people but they don't have the industry to hire them, and resource extraction and agriculture industries leave most of the profits to foreign corporations)
Look at Japan for example, it still took them 5 decades to industrialize to a medium production level despite their cultural unity, highly centralized administration, much easier climate for infrastructure, widely available shipping access, high cultural regard for hard work with low pay , a high population, and a highly developed agriculture sector. Plus Mittleafrika will have the brain drain from de-colonization as with OTL.
Sure you can say that manufacturing industries will start in Mittleafrika but why? Why start from scratch in Mittleafrika when there are more efficient factories in Europe? Sure factories can start in Mittleafrika for it's proxy to Mittleafrikan costumers but that would require them to acquire money first.
Mittleafrika will not be able to reach that extent (maybe coastal cities) in 5 decades perhaps 7-9 (the economic incentives simple aren't that strong for resources and most of Africa's deposits haven't been discovered or made commercially feasible yet, unless the Germans are that humanitarian and selfless). (plus I think it was colonial policy to discourage manufacturing industries in colonies in OTL, so it couldn't have been that different)
Well they would first have to extend the existing colonial administration, next they have to bring people up to a minimal level of living, and then the work can start. (the present problem I see is that it's like many developing countries today, they can produce highly educated people but they don't have the industry to hire them, and resource extraction and agriculture industries leave most of the profits to foreign corporations)
Look at Japan for example, it still took them 5 decades to industrialize to a medium production level despite their cultural unity, highly centralized administration, much easier climate for infrastructure, widely available shipping access, high cultural regard for hard work with low pay , a high population, and a highly developed agriculture sector. Plus Mittleafrika will have the brain drain from de-colonization as with OTL.
Sure you can say that manufacturing industries will start in Mittleafrika but why? Why start from scratch in Mittleafrika when there are more efficient factories in Europe? Sure factories can start in Mittleafrika for it's proxy to Mittleafrikan costumers but that would require them to acquire money first.
Mittleafrika will not be able to reach that extent (maybe coastal cities) in 5 decades perhaps 7-9 (the economic incentives simple aren't that strong for resources and most of Africa's deposits haven't been discovered or made commercially feasible yet, unless the Germans are that humanitarian and selfless). (plus I think it was colonial policy to discourage manufacturing industries in colonies in OTL, so it couldn't have been that different)
I think Mittelafrika will industrialize considerably faster than Japan.
Right now, Mittelafrika is an Emerging Market in the modern sense - with the added advantage of free trade into Germany and hence the CPMZ. Additionally, Germany provides education - and not only higher universitary education, which is indeed often ineffective for third world countries, but also more basic education of the workforce and the bureaucracy or police.
And then Mittelafrika already has substantial resources it can export for cash - the Belgians extracted quite some wealth from Congo, and Tansania was the only (slightly) profitable colony of Germany. They can export exotic agricultural cash crops and mined raw materials. Rather minimal education and capital is required to make these early industries more efficient and profitable. Those will provide the capital base much as silk was crucial in Japanese development.
And then there's also direct investment - particularly in infrastructure - for which Germany pays, whereas Japan had to pay and plan it itself. Just to give an example think of the modern port facilities in Daresalaam which the Germans established and the new railway lines.
Nevertheless, even considerably faster industrialization of Mittelafrika measn that they'll have decades before they reach German per capita GDP.
Not quite some advantage, Mittelafrican industry can't live with european competition. Miitelafrica would have some chance if they close the borders and make some replacement industry like many OTL Latin America countries or New Zealand.
The Germans will have to dish out alot of money with no definite return for this to work out.
Easiest thing, agricultural subsidies, Rich nations have other industries to tax to subsidize agriculture, Poor nations don't so their basic industries fail and are taken over by foreign companies and they stay poor. Unless European countries are willing to piss off their farmers and food buying citizens for the sake of fairness(which is BS, why invest so much in education, infrastructure and administration if not for an advantage) >>>> Miitelafrica stay a mud hole that is solely for the purpose of resource extraction.
The reason why so many third world nations were able to industrialize in OTL was with state capitalism and an America that was willing to take an indefinite trade deficit .
More importantly even if they do industrialize, blacks will be a poor class as anyone with a European education will have massive advantages. (Seriously, I doubt they have the educational ability across languages to educate in the quality and quantity needed for industrialization). More importantly industrialized education is not very useful in the context of rural Africa as shown when visually and written orientated education is imposed on oral orientated people, and hungry people will not have time for education this involves feeding a shitload of people who have a fertility rate of something in the 5+.
The Germans will have to dish out alot of money with no definite return for this to work out.