A Shift in Priorities

[rast]

Pictures of Something

‘Slick Town’ was the nickname of Wilhelmshaven. Founded by the Prussian Navy and completely depending on the German Navy until today, the town was generally considered ugly and charmless, but nevertheless had developed into a booming commercial centre, fuelled by the needs and requirements of the navy and of thousands of sailors.
The Imperial Shipyard formed the core of the town, around which all other facilities had been arranged. The naval station had repeatedly been enlarged; another extension was just under construction, which also would create a fourth lock gate exit.
Hidden somewhere in all those naval facilities, the top secret Naval Research Institute was situated, the technological hatchery of the SKL.

Wolfgang Grimm had done his doctorate at the Aachen University of Technology, specialising in electrical engineering. His doctoral adviser had suggested that the German Navy might be interested in hiring Grimm’s expertise for their research programmes.
Today, Grimm had a five-year contract with the War Office and was working on the problem of FUMEO display.
The apparatus already introduced and in service aboard the new ‘Dortmund’ class cruisers used the analogue Nipkow Disc technology, replacing the original holes with mirrors and producing a 96 lines display. Grimm thought that the Braun Tube, a cathode ray tube, could – once the problems of steerage and amplifying had been solved – provide a much better and far more compact display.
Grimm was aware of Dieckmann’s ‘Kathodenstrahl-Relais’ and was in contact with Max Dieckmann, who worked for LKL at their research centre north of Berlin.

However, there was another feature, which had sprung into Grimm’s mind one night. Several tubes could be combined with relays for control, relays were in ‘on’ or in ‘off’ mode, thus simulating a binary code. Could this possibly be used to simulate calculation operations?
Would it be feasible to use the data determined by FUMEO – distance, direction and speed of an object – to directly adjust direction and elevation of the guns? And to indicate to the gun crew what type of charge had to be used?

 

[rast]

Nike’s Battered Wings

Finally, by mid-January 1924, the US had conquered all of Mexico, at least the borders of Guatemala and British Honduras (about to be renamed in ‘Yucatec Republic’) had been attained. But the country was far from pacified, Trotsky’s commandos still roamed the Yucatan jungle, Pancho Villa’s fighters still were present in the mountains of Chiapas and Oaxaca, and the resistance movement challenged US rule all over the country.
From Guatemalan airfields, the ICAW still flew sorties into Mexico – and dropped supplies for Trotsky’s and Villa’s gangs.
In Washington, a debate raged whether to continue the advance into Guatemala and Honduras – or whether to consolidate the control of Mexico, install a democratic system and hope for the emanation of the principle into the ‘Banana Republics’.
However, an initial attempt to ‘import’ some democrats to Mexico had already failed, none of the chaps had made it to Mexico City, despite a bunch of US paid body guards. And Mexican politicians, who had been in opposition to ‘El Guardián del Pueblo’ and still were alive, preferred to keep a very low profile these days.
Supply of the forces going into the ‘Banana Republics’ could be managed by sea, the existing rail systems connecting various ports with the central areas.
But before a decision was taken, events escalated elsewhere…

On January 21st, 1924, the SS Governor Cobb, a passenger steamboat serving the Miami – Nassau route, was hijacked by pirates, who threatened the lifes of the 382 US passengers and 95 crew members, if the US did not withdraw from Mexico.
When two US destroyers closed in on SS Governor Cobb, the pirates started to execute their hostages and set the vessel on fire. Only 155 people survived the ordeal and could be rescued by the US warships.

On January 23rd, twelve bombs exploded in twelve passenger trains all over the US, killing 84 people and wounding 472.
On the same day, the Federal Security Office (FSO) acquired the information that Emma Goldman was hiding in the German embassy in Mexico City.

The ultimatum delivered to German Ambassador Konstantin Freiherr von Neurath certainly was influenced by the events of January 21st and 23rd and used a language, which hardly could be called diplomatic. At the same time, von Neurath’s assurance that Goldman was kept isolated and impossibly could have had a hand in the incidents, fell on deaf ears. No matter that the ambassador attested that Goldman was better secured and screened from public contact in the German embassy in Mexico City than she could conceivably be in any US prison; the US demanded her immediate extradition.

In Berlin, the prose of the US ultimatum was considered insolent – and the threat of using force to seize Goldman if Germany did not comply was seen as fulmination.
“Our country has given in to American insolence rather too often during the Great War!” argued Minister of War Alfred von Tirpitz, “The only reply to Bethmann’s relenting always was more insolence. – I don’t care for that woman, but we cannot accept to be treated like a messenger boy!”
Nobody in Erzberger’s cabinet contradicted, the men all were of the same opinion. It was agreed that Foreign Minister Gustav Stresemann and his chief diplomat, Richard von Kühlmann, would take an express Zeppelin to Washington and try to pour oil on the troubled waters.

But before the two men could even arrive, US troops forcefully entered the German embassy in Mexico City – only to discover that Ambassador zu Bodman had smuggled Goldman out to an undisclosed location…

 

[Kara Iskandar]

Hoho...Is war looming ahead?

 

[Bmao]

The US really is acting like a brat, yet its a big brat that can tear you a new asshole if you piss it off too much, so therefore I think Germany would want to just give Goldman to the US and seal her fate. The US population justifyably seeks some kind of retribution for all these terrorist attacks on its soil, and it is most likely that its the Mexican Government that's to blame.

I think the US government feels particularly threatened because it feels like the European powers have been interfering in their zone of influence, which is namely the American continent. Since the end of the Great War, the US has mostly kept out of European affairs, and it would only be fair if Europe would extend the same courtesy.

 

[Neroon]

2 Problems with that:

1. With her having been under strict supervision during the attacks, she has an ultra-airtight alibi. If Germany hands her over no one is going to believe they did it for any other reason than running scared of the US. They are basically throwing someone who is still a German citizen to a lynch mob - who also happens to be clearly innocent and a female (doesn't matter how much the right despises what she stands for being female still will trigger their protective instincts).

2. She's a Socialist. Which means most of the people who'm you usually can count on to want to tread softly internationally instead of rattle sabers will also want to refuse her extradition. Especially since they are safely not in office and can therefore publicly take her side without worrying about potentialy getting the blame for having started a war with the US.

 

[rast]

While Kriemhild gently floats

The ‘Kriemhild’ was the newest and most modern DELAG Zeppelin; she featured a constant radio link with ground stations, an enhanced passenger compartment, which could serve as rescue capsule in case of average over sea, and two parasite aircraft, converted Albatros C XIIIs, for emergency over land.
With her powerful engines, the ‘Kriemhild’ was able to do cover the distance Berlin – New York in two days only.
At present, the airship was approaching Washington D.C. – Landfall was expected for 15:00 hours local time.

In the lounge, Gustav Stresemann was sitting together with Richard von Kühlmann and Naval Captain Otto Hersing, Kühlmann’s military advisor, discussing how to proceed in the wretched Emma Goldman affair. Hersing, the famous ‘Battleship Killer’ of Gelibolu, had been accepted into the German Admiral Staff after the war and had served for almost three years as naval attaché at the embassy in Washington.
By radio, they had been informed about the US intrusion into the embassy in Ciudad de México, which was a severe violation of German sovereignty – and could not simply be glossed over.

“So, these Americans smash the front gate, march into the embassy, establish that Goldmann isn’t there – and march out again? Just like that?” Stresemann asked doubtfully.
Hersing smiled. “They are Americans, they follow orders. They had been told to seize Goldmann. – Now, no Goldman, no issue. – If this had been Germans, they’d certainly have seized Luxemburg, stolen all the lavatory paper and the ambassador’s cigars. But these were Amis. Nobody had told them to look for Luxemburg, so they didn’t look for her.”
“Are they that stupid?”
“No, not at all. It’s their system. It wouldn’t work for us, but for them it works very well. – It’s just a different approach. – Like the English, where the field grades never produced any initiative of their own but the army as a whole was nevertheless effective. – Quite unlike to how the French and we are educating our men.”

Stresemann pondered this for a moment.
“And they believe our military consists of heel clicking automatons… – Anyway, kicking in embassy doors is an unacceptable behaviour. What shall we do if they do not apologise?”
“Well, if they are clever, they’ll blame it on a subordinate local commander in Mexico and will apologise.” answered von Kühlmann.
“And if they are not clever? – I mean, they are behaving like the infamous elephant in the china shop all the time. – These people believe Mexico and Central America as a whole is their backyard, where they can do what they want, without anybody else having the right to interfere…”
“Actually, I would think they’re seriously sour about European – and German – behaviour in the Mexican affair. – They know very well that SPAD and Renault are German-owned. – Why was it that Rosa Luxemburg was able to join with Trotsky? – What about the Dönitz incident? – Why did we grant asylum to Goldman, although she was the most wanted person in the USA?” injected Hersing.
“But Dönitz was reprimanded for his action, and we apologised.”
“Sure, but on his next leave, he went to Toulon and met this French captain. He was celebrated like a hero down there. It was in every newspaper. To the Amis this must have looked like a fait accompli.”

Stresemann scowled. “But our government has supported the US action versus Mexico from the start. We joined the embargo and never protested against the blockade. Nor have we ever criticised the military intervention. The cabinet always agreed that quelling Trotskism and Communism was the right thing to do. – That German companies sell stuff to people who pay their prices has nothing to do with our national policy. That’s business, into which the government will not interfere.”
“Perhaps we should tell this to the Americans.” remarked von Kühlmann. “After all, our benevolent stance might be in question, if they do not apologise. – SPD and KPD are already singing the song of the evil US capitalists, who only are after the Mexican resources. And in German public opinion, the US range next to Huns and Mongols. If we accept door bashing without apology, we might get into serious domestic trouble. – Have you seen Fritz Lang’s ‘The Volunteer’?”
Stresemann nodded. “Who has not? – It’s THE movie right now.”
“And thoroughly anti-American. The US soldiers annihilating the International Brigades at Acapulco are depicted as a dark horde of fiends. US politicans are shown as evil, greedy and completely corrupt. – The film is not being shown in US cinemas, but they know about it of course. – We should make very clear that our government does not comply with German public opinion, but that we very soon may be forced to appease public opinion – if the Americans insist on behaving unreasonable.”

 

[altamiro]

The tension increases...

The Americans will also be forced by their public opinion to not apologize, at least not publically. They might do it in private and offer some kind of low-profile redress, but they can't openly apologise, since I assume most Americans believe Goldman was behind the attacks and letting her off will probably mean loss the next elections (1924?) for being "soft on terrorism". Germany protecting Goldman will be seen in USA precisely like Mullah Omar sheltering Bin Laden 2001, even if this sentiment is based on wrong assumptions.
With other words, fecal matter is about to hit the fan.

What about putting Goldman on trial in Germany, resulting in acquittal?

 

[rast]

All truth is simple... is that not doubly a lie?
(Friedrich Nietzsche)

John William Davis, US Secretary of State, watched the ‘Kriemhild’ moor and the German delegation slowly assemble on the pavement.
Those pompous Krauts with their obtrusive sky cigars…
He closed his eyes and memorised some French phrases. Having pursued a legal career in the US and having been ambassador to London, where one could converse at leisure in English, his French had grown definitely rusty.
When he opened his eyes again, a short man with noticeable pop eyes under his bowler hat steered in his direction. This was Stresemann, their foreign minister; Davis had met him before on two or three occasions, but they never had entered close conversation. He knew, however, that the chap was fluent in French.
The German lifted his hat, bowed stiffly and extended his right hand.
“I’m pleased to meet you, Mr. Davis.” he said in slow, correct and easy to understand French.
Davis replied likewise, shamefully aware that flawed pronunciation made his French difficult to understand.
Stresemann twinkled with his amazing pop eyes. “Would you prefer to continue in English? – No problem with me.”
He spoke with a typical German accent, proving that he did not often converse in English with native speakers, but this was fairly better than Davis’ French; and Davis nodded thankfully.
After Stresemann had introduced Richard von Kühlmann as his primary aide, they took the car to the White House.

During the ride, it was small talk only. Stresemann noticed how prosperous everyone and everything appeared to be. Davis smiled.
“Yes, our economy is definitely bustling. There’s a new approach: “Buy now, pay later.” – That allows the consumers to purchase the items they want today, while they pay the instalments tomorrow and the day after.”
Stresemann, who had studied economy, made a pensive face.
“And that works?”
“As you can see, it does. – Everybody is definitely getting richer…”

In front of the White House, there was the usual picket of ‘Bring the Boys Home!’ protesters, mainly middle aged women, mothers of conscript soldiers.
Vice President Roosevelt received Stresemann in the West Wing for a private talk, while Davis and von Kühlmann were left to figure out the further procedure of the talks.

“Why do you hide Goldman?” snapped Roosevelt, once the door had been closed. “She’s the most wanted person in this country! You should immediately have handed her over to us!”
“Our countries do not have a mutual agreement about the extradition of wanted persons, just to remind you. – There is nothing that would oblige the Government of his Imperial Majesty to do what you stipulate. – But it was not necessary to deliver such a harsh ultimatum – and then go and violate the immunity of our embassy in Mexico City.
My government is not at all opposed to your policy in regard to Mexico and Leon Trotsky; if approached prudently, one would have found a way to give you what you wanted. – But now, it’s out of the box – and my government has to take into account public opinion as much as yours…“
“Damn, there will be presidential elections this autumn, the primaries will already start in a few weeks. The President wants a success. Putting Goldman to trial would be such a success.”

Stresemann shrugged. “That may be as you say. – Nevertheless, my government requires an official US apology for having violated the immunity of our embassy. – We have elections for the Reichstag next year, and in the present mood the German people would vote us out of office. Then you’d have deal with a German government, which no longer supports your conquest of Mexico but may side with Trotsky and Pancho Villa. – Is it that what you want?”

Roosevelt plucked his nose.
“We want Goldman. – If you give us Goldman, we’ll excuse for kicking in your embassy’s door.”

Stresemann scratched his bald head.
“I fear that is no longer possible. – Miss Goldman apparently has decided that we no longer will be able to protect her. After Ambassador zu Bodman had gotten her out of the embassy, she escaped his escort. – Emma Goldman is on the run again; we have no clue where she may be right now…”

 

[rast]

Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all I can?
(Sun Tzu)

The political climate between the USA and Germany had been distanced and cursory at best since the Great War, the US reluctantly recognising Germany’s transition to a fully fledged democracy but hardly embracing the power that matter-of-factly controlled Central Europe. Yet now, in the wake of the Goldman Affair, it grew outrightly unpleasant.
Because neither the US had vital stakes in continental Europe (their investment being directed almost exclusively at Great Britain), nor Germany in North and Central America (their trade with the South American countries was not impeded by any US measures yet), there was no danger of a violent conflagration, but – on both sides – national strategies were now reviewed in the light of a potential confrontation.

Considering the geographical facts, it were the navies, which came into the focus of these considerations.

The US Navy had 22 battleships in service; in addition, USS Washington was expected to become ready by mid-1924; USS South Dakota had already been launched and would be commissioned in 1925.
Two battlecruisers, USS Lexington and USS Saratoga, were already on duty; USS Constellation was nearing completion and would enter service in late 1924.
In terms of aircraft carriers, there was only USS Langley available right now. USS Wasp, the first of the planned six large carriers, had been launched in January but still was far from completion.
However, the foremost asset of the US Navy were the more than three hundred relatively modern destroyers, allowing them complete control of American waters.
Because the number of existing and already planned vessels was considered adequate, no new ones were ordered, but the construction of the remaining five battleships, three battlecruisers and five aircraft carriers was to be sped up with the aim of having the fleet complete by early 1927.

The German Navy had nine battlecruisers, not counting the old SMS Von der Tann and SMS Moltke, which just were undergoing substantial modernisation; and twenty battleships, of which, however, three – SMS Nassau, Westfalen and Rheinland – were about to re-enter service as battlecruisers after completed modernisation.
Of the four projected fleet carriers, only SMS Graf Zeppelin was in service and currently being tested extensively in the Baltic.
Even if there was a slight advantage over the US Navy in the number of light cruisers, this was overshadowed by the small number of German destroyers available.
Given the task of controlling African waters as well, Minister von Tirpitz therefore had little trouble to convince his colleagues that more destroyers were required. To speed up construction, a number of vessels were contracted out to shipyards in Italy, Slovenia, Sweden, Belgium and the Netherlands, a novelty in German war ship building, but well suited to strengthen the ties of the CPMZ. In all, 188 new destroyers were to be built, in principle scaled down copies of the Dortmund class cruisers.
The existing German submarines were only capable of action in coastal waters and around the British Isles or in the Baltic and Mediterranean; here Tirpitz got his colleagues to agree to the construction of fifty new large boats, which were to be fit for high seas duty and transcontinental operations.
And because the Americans were already building six aircraft carriers, two new German ones, SMS Manfred von Richthofen and SMS Ernst Udet, were added to the list.

It was not really difficult to convince the Italians to lay down a new class of four battleships, modernised versions of the Francesco Caracciolo class projected before the Great War, two aircraft carriers and six cruisers plus twenty-four destroyers. Naturally, the Italians were only keen of playing a dominant role in the Mediterranean, but with the powerful Italian, Hungarian and Ottoman fleets present here, the Mediterranean was bound to be and remain the safe backwater of the Central Powers.

With the DELAG depending on North American helium to fly their Zeppelins, the need to look for other means of long range transport became indicated.
This was the great chance for Claudius Dornier, who since the Great War had – as a branch of DELAG business – experimented with float planes, but due to the DELAG Zeppelin successes had not yet acquired any important jobs. He was now tasked to develop the prototype of a transcontinental passenger float plane.

In the political arena, these decisions of the Erzberger Government found approval from the right as well as from the left. While the one wing viewed them as necessary for holding up German national pride, the other side thought they were required to protect Europe from American capitalist imperialism.

 

[altamiro]

Great way out of the dilemma - Goldman is out of the picture, again...

Does it just look like there is a naval arms race starting between USA and Germany? Just from the population alone, Germany can hardly sustain it as long as USA without undue strain on the own economy. The entire CPMG, however, if it sees itself as a military alliance as well, may get the USA to a draw.

Of course Germany can decide to pool their ressources into defensive armaments, actually just like USA did ITTL already, so that the other side (USA) may be able to project more power to third nations than Germany but not threaten Germany itself. Having a large destroyer fleet seems like exactly this way.

 

[rast]

The US we're looking at has a population of roughly 107 million, a total fertility rate of 2.1 - and has just largely blocked immigration.

Greater Germany has slightly more than 80 million inhabitants, a fertility rate of 4.3 (pre-war level), and sizeable immigration of Germans and Jews from Poland and Russia.

Add 7 million Dutch, 6 million Belgians, 6 million Swedes, 38 million Italians, 11 million Hungarians, 3.5 million Croats, and 1.5 million Slovenes (to name only those countries with modern industries and readiness to cooperate), and you will find that the CPMZ easily outweights the US.

Arms race? May happen, depending on further developments. Right now, the Germans are only shaping their capability to defend their sphere of influence - just like the US can do with their's.

 

[rast]

Be Fruitful and Multiply
(Genesis 1.28)

Sunday, February 10th, 1924, saw the engagement of sixteen year old Prince Louis Ferdinand of Prussia with fourteen year old Crown Princess Juliana Louise Emma of Orange-Nassau.
While Emperor Wilhelm III. thought that this was premature and one could have waited some more years, he had been chanceless against the formidable combination of his wife and Queen Wilhelmina of the Netherlands.

Wilhelmina, who saw that the Netherlands were about to lose the source of their prosperity, the Dutch East Indies, was the proponent of a close rapprochement with Germany. Only if – with massive German investment, who else would invest in the low countries today? – the Netherlands managed to become a modern industrial nation, could the Dutch standard of living be maintained and eventually be improved.
Rotterdam sat on the mouth of the Rhine River, which by-passed the Ruhr area, Germany’s industrial heart. If the Germans could be induced to accept Rotterdam as major port of exit and entry for the Ruhr industries – and stopped their venture to divert the stream of goods to the German North Sea ports – the Netherlands had a fair chance to become a major global trade hub.
At the same time, Dutch agriculture had benefited greatly from supplying foodstuffs to Germany during the Great War, green house technology and mechanisation had been introduced with outstanding success. And the Germans, traumatised by the years of hunger and thus interested in secure food supply from the near abroad, were still buying from the Netherlands, while the Prussian agriculture in the east was now modernising and adopting to the Dutch example.

Wilhelmina also saw how Belgium was faring. The country had prospered in the First Industrial Revolution, but at the turn of the century had already gone into slow decline. Then the Germans had ruined the Belgian industries in the Great War – only to massively invest in their new ally after the war and build new industries that could well keep pace in the Second Industrial Revolution.
At the same time, the Germans were not at all interfering with Belgian politics, and their soldiers stationed in Belgium generally behaved well under the laws and mutual agreements regulating their sojourn.
Clearly, many Belgians were still antagonised by the experience of German occupation and the war, but as a whole, Belgium was prospering and doing fine.
The Central Powers Market Zone would allow the Low Countries to have their fair share of the cornucopia without forcing them to give up sovereignty.

For Empress Cecilie, the motive had been to know this part in place before the big event of 1924 – the marriage between Princess Giovanna of Savoy and Crown Prince Wilhelm Friedrich Franz of Prussia, which was scheduled for Easter Sunday, April 20th – did absorb all her energies.

Cecilie had highflying plans for her offspring, with the two eldest sons already been spoken for, she planned to marry Hubertus, the third eldest, to Princess Kira Kyrillovna of Russia; Friedrich Georg was to wed Princess Adelheid of Habsburg; Alexandrine was to get Bavarian Crown Prince Albrecht Luitpold; and young Cecilie Prince Carl Gustav of Sweden, eldest son of the Swedish Crown Prince.
She was not going to have any of her children engage with some unimportant offspring of an insignificant house. The German Emperor – her husband – was the foremost monarch in Europe, and close family ties had to be weaved with the allied houses, full stop! No Objections!

Emperor Wilhelm III. knew better than to object. – He would gladly leave all this to his wife, after having lost the initial round against her in the Italy versus the Netherlands debate.
Returned from The Hague, were the engagement ceremony had taken place, he asked Chancellor Erzberger to appraise him about the situation.
Erzberger was kind of peeved.
“We’ve supported these Americans in all their crazy actions. What has been their thank-you? An insolent ultimatum and a gross violation of German sovereignty… - From now on, they will no longer have our tacit cooperation. No more suppression of volunteers for Mexico or the Caribbean. – Of course, we won’t get actively involved against them; we have no interests at stake over there. But the time of benevolent neutrality is over…”
“Is it really necessary to become disconcerting?”
“As it seems, Your Majesty, the only language they really understand is one of rudeness and brute force. For brute force, we have absolutely no reason, but rudeness they can have.”
“Will that really help us?”
“Your father has – for almost thirty years, even during the war – tried to appease the English. Did that ever help us? – Like the English, the Americans take politeness and restraint for weakness. – No, there is no cause for actively working against them, but the time of soft words is over…”

 

[altamiro]

The US we're looking at has a population of roughly 107 million, a total fertility rate of 2.1 - and has just largely blocked immigration.

Greater Germany has slightly more than 80 million inhabitants, a fertility rate of 4.3 (pre-war level), and sizeable immigration of Germans and Jews from Poland and Russia.

Add 7 million Dutch, 6 million Belgians, 6 million Swedes, 38 million Italians, 11 million Hungarians, 3.5 million Croats, and 1.5 million Slovenes (to name only those countries with modern industries and readiness to cooperate), and you will find that the CPMZ easily outweights the US.

Arms race? May happen, depending on further developments. Right now, the Germans are only shaping their capability to defend their sphere of influence - just like the US can do with their's.

After having looked at US demographics post-1900 IOTL, I have to concede the point. Still, the effect of the more population within the CPMZ is somewhat reduced by wartime destructions and the fact that the common market is not as integrated yet. Just a few years into the conception of the CPMZ and right after the Great War a smooth-running common market structure would require an ASB or two intervening. In a decade or two it would be another matter.

Still you are right, the matters would be probably fairly well balanced out and no side would win an arms race by bancrupting the other without going bancrupt itself.

The fertility rate of 2.1 in USA, with still quite large rural population and (in 1880-90s) immigrants from places like Southern Italy, seems to me incredibly low though. It's below replacement level. Did it increase a lot later IOTL or are really over 2/3 of the current US citizens (OTL) descendants of post-WW1 immigrants?

Have I already written that I like the timeline very much?

 

[rast]

IOTL, the total US fertility rate went up to 3.something after the Second World War, and remained so for almost three decades, before dropping again to pre-WW2 levels (around 2.0).
Generally, 2.33 is considered necessary in order to preserve the already existing population number (without immigration). That means that pre-WW2, US population growth must have been due to immigration.

About the CPMZ, well, it's just started to co-operate with Germany giving warship construction to other nations. Right now, it's a kind of huge 'Zollverein'.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

IOTL, the total US fertility rate went up to 3.something after the Second World War, and remained so for almost three decades, before dropping again to pre-WW2 levels (around 2.0).
Generally, 2.33 is considered necessary in order to preserve the already existing population number (without immigration). That means that pre-WW2, US population growth must have been due to immigration.

About the CPMZ, well, it's just started to co-operate with Germany giving warship construction to other nations. Right now, it's a kind of huge 'Zollverein'.

2.1 is the figure I have seen cited in many, many places.

 

[rast]

2.1 may suffice - if everything else is okay. 2.33 will give stability even in case of high child mortality, bad age structure, war etc.

 

[rast]

Close, but no cigar.
(American proverb)

Mid-February 1924 saw the final bid of the US Forces. The advance into Guatemala took place almost uncontested. The ICAW retreated into the Republic of Yucatec, an action which immediately triggered an US invasion of this country as well. Pushed back to Punta Gorda, they finally hopped over to Honduras on February 26th. But this time, luck abandoned the international airmen: After landing on an airstrip near the littoral, a unit of fruit company mercenaries opened fire. One of the three transporters carrying fuel and lubricants immediately blew up, the blast wave toppling or pushing around the remaining eleven fighters, which otherwise might have made into the air again.
The mercenaries were not paid for making prisoners. Francesco Baracca (76 air combat victories) and all other ICAW personnel plus five accompanying reporters died in a hail of bullets or – if wounded – were killed with bushwhackers afterwards.

On March 2nd and 3rd, strong US forces waded ashore in El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. The revolutionaries had seen what was looming ahead – and had gone underground everywhere. There were some ambushes nevertheless, but generally, US advance proceeded according to schedule.

Uncontested US control of the air enabled a thorough search of the Yucatan jungle. On March 7th, 1924, Trotsky’s guerrillas were finally rounded up north of Calakmul and annihilated in a three days battle.
Leon Trotsky and Ephraim Sklyansky were, however, not among the corpses collected after the encounter.

Pancho Villa remained an invisible ghost in the Mexican mountains, as did Genovevo de la O in Guatemala. In Nicaragua, Augusto César Sandino, having slightly changed his name by adding the César, became the spirit of resistance.

Thus, by mid-March 1924, all of Mexico and Central America down to peaceful Costa Rica were occupied – but not pacified. On average, seven US soldiers were killed each day or died from accidents.
But the big problem was to install a new order. Nobody, who sided with the Gringos could be confident for his life – or that of his family. Even a bunch of body guards was no insurance against snipers, bombs and kidnapping. Uncle Miguel being abducted and his cut-off testicles forwarded as a reminder might still be acceptable for some toughs, but the same thing threatened to their son usually persuaded them to abandon their plans.

What remained was to install a military government. This worked tolerably, but dragged the US Forces even deeper into the morass of corruption, organised crime and drug abuse.

The Big Southern Conquest, how the operation was to be called later on, therefore did not translate into a bonus for the Owen Administration. Facing the upcoming presidential elections, their prospect of remaining in office seemed to be marginal.
Only the beaming economical development – also sparked by government orders for armaments – of the last two years might be apportioned positively.
However, the nation wide ‘Bring the Boys Home’ movement and the fact that Americans still were dying ‘down there’ each day seemed to overshadow the prosperity at home. A brand new and expensive refrigerator certainly was a fine thing, but what did it help you, when your kid ‘down there’ was in constant danger of being killed or maimed – or was found addicted to heroin?

That the US were completely isolated politically, hardly bothered most US citizens. What mattered were the US. Had the Big Southern Conquest made the US safe from terrorists?
On March 28th, 1924, a series of bombs exploded in Honolulu on Hawaii, killing 48 people; April 1st saw a charge being defused in last minute at the New York central station.
On April 3rd, a five-member US family visiting Morocco was kidnapped and later found dead; the culprits were described as ‘Mexicans’ by the authorities, who, however, proved unable to seize them.

 

[rast]

Island in the Mist

British Secretary of State for War Oswald Mosley had followed the German-American dissonance with great interest and a certain glee. So, the stupid and arrogant Germans had clashed with the stupid and arrogant Yankees, who would have thought that?
After the Great War, the two contemporary major powers of the western hemisphere had co-existed without any conflicts until now, both concentrating on their spheres – and both had watched the downfall of the British Empire with unmoved coldness.
To a British mind it was quite natural that nations should contend for primacy. Therefore, Mosley had no problems in envisioning a future power struggle between the Teutons and the Merkins.

Well, Britain was ideally positioned to tip the scales in such a contest for supreme world power.
The navies of both nations were roughly equal, and there was no doubt that even an arms race would hardly change that. The Erzberger tax reforms in Germany had removed all obstacles for increasing armaments, which still had driven Tirpitz to frenzy before the Great War. If the Germans really felt the necessity, they could build as many ships as they wanted today. This might soon become an unwelcome realisation for the Americans, who were so proud of their industrial capacity.

If both fleets remained roughly in equilibrium, the Royal Navy could make the difference.
With 27 battleships and 10 battlecruisers in service, 6 more battlecruisers under construction, two aircraft carriers commissioned and three more expected to become ready this year, the Royal Navy truly was a force to be reckoned with.
Today, with the Empire almost completely gone, the fleet was mainly kept in British waters – except for the Mediterranean Squadron. This arrangement had already been put in place by the Germanophobe Tories.

However, some days ago, Mosley had met an interesting officer, Colonel J.F.C. Fuller, who had been the last commanding officer of the Tank Corps, which Churchill had left to decay.
Fuller had pointed out that Germany as well the USA were continental powers which – even after having lost their fleet – could not be expected to surrender. As long as Germany controlled the major part of Europe, and Eastern Europe in special, she was as immune to naval blockade as the USA, who spanned a whole continent of their own.
A decision therefore would not be achievable on sea, but only on land. This meant that even if Britain sided with one party and contributed the Royal Navy, this would not suffice to end the war.
One would have to go in and drag the enemy out of his dugout...

Thus, Fuller had argued, the Tory decision to neglect lands armaments had been wrong. If Britain had no army to contribute, she should also forfeit offering her navy.
A modern British Army was required, which also had modern tanks.
“After all, Sir, we have invented these beasts. – Only, we built ours for position warfare, they built theirs for a war of movement. But even their Kanobils could do nothing which our Whippets, our design for a war of movement, couldn’t do as well, only, the Whippets had only a pitiful machine gun – and the Boches had a powerful field gun.”
Further conversation had revealed that the current German tank designs were top secret and one had only vague ideas what they really were able to accomplish. But Fuller was confident that autonomous British designs could be constructed that were superior to the German Kanobils and Stuwas.

Mosley thought that Fuller’s ideas had merit. If Britain was to remain a major player in world affairs, more than big ships and aeroplanes was required.
His colleagues in cabinet had shown some scepticism, but had not really been adverse to the idea of spending more money on land armaments.

Consequently, Fuller had been promoted to Colonel-Commandant and given the task of developing a modern armoured force, including the required vehicles. Fuller’s armoured brigade then was to serve as pattern for the enlargement and restructuring of the army.
Mosley had given Fuller authority to report directly to him, well knowing the military hierarchy might be inclined to sabotage the unconventional Fuller and try to use the well trodden paths of yesterday.

Mosley was intent of these new British capabilities; they would give the country quite some importance in things to come. He was no friend of American capitalism and imperialism, but he also hated the Germans for their victory over the British Expeditionary Force in 1918.
The world would have to learn that Britain was no quantité négligeable; Albion still was a major player in world affairs. The Empire was gone, but the qualities, which had made Britain the superpower of the last century, still remained...

 

[BlairWitch749]

I feel a jutland 2.0 comming on

 

[Winand_von_Rabenmund]

uhh, Mosley ought to be carefull... if Britain shows of too much, one of the two big players might consider the unthinkable seamammal - which might become thinkable under the circumstances in TTL.