A Shift in Priorities

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Status of Sakhalin is that its northern part (where the coal and the oil is) belongs to Mănzhōu Guó, but Zhèng has handed over all control of it to Japan. (See Post 636)
This was the price for Japanese support. Japan will not become active militarily in China - at least as long as Hara is at the helm...
 
In God We Trust

The US conquest of Mexico started on July 21st, 1923. At least officially. The teething troubles of the conscript army made it only a dash across the border – followed by a lengthy phase of getting things arranged orderly again. Quite a number of reactivated officers were relieved from their posts and replaced by active ones. For example: Major George S. Patton overnight found himself promoted to temporary Colonel and put in charge of an infantry brigade.
The US press jubilated about ‘our boys in Mexico’, which were doing fine – which was no great wonder as they had advanced only about forty miles (from their camps on the US side of the border) and there were no combats.

By mid-August, things had been ‘tidied up’ and the advance was resumed. This time, matters generally went as planned, and with growing experience, the US military machine was slowly gearing up. At least the active grades had stopped despairing and saw hope...
The Mexicans were only staring in disbelief at what weltered into their country. The active US Army and the Marines and the National Guard had already been impressive – but they hadn’t been so many...

Pancho Villa gave out the watchword: “Retreat to the South!” – After which the regular Mexican forces did not offer battle but scurried to the mountainous south of the country. Like before, resistance in the north would be left to the guerrillas.
This, however, had dire consequences. The inexperienced conscripts were not only experts in producing friendly fire accidents, they also tended to overreact. Thus, the irresistible progress of the US forces did not produce pacified areas.
If the old US Army had already failed to win the hearts and minds of the population, the new conscript US Army was now about to win their eternal hatred and scorn.

By early September 1923, all land north of the 20iest degree of latitude had been taken by the Gringos. Now the Mexican rain period commenced in the coastal lowlands and virtually bogged down all further advance, while the mountains of the Cordillera Neovolcánica (or Sierra Nevada) and stiffening Mexican resistance did the same further inland.
In addition, those US units in the western part of the country now had supply lines of about 600 miles length. Time for another respite.

Basically, all new Mexican production facilities at the west coast had been taken. With utter surprise the Americans learned that the Spics had produced tanks, copies of the French Renault FT17. Fortunately, only very few had become ready and apparently none operational. But how could it be that a country like Mexico had armoured fighting vehicles – and the US had none?
In the Great War, there had been a plan to build copies of the FT17 in the US. But the idea had been abandoned already in May 1918, when the disengagement from Europe had been decided. When even the French thought that this design was no match for the German Kanobils, why bother any longer and produce it in the US?
Subsequent ideas to arrive at an own version of the Kanobils had fallen victim to economy measures. After all, nobody had threatened the US, so why should the small active army need tanks?

But now, official perception was quite different. The USA were at war (again)! – The Rock Island Arsenal was tasked to come up as fast as possible with a tank at least equal to the German Kanobil II design.
At the same time, the number of US war planes available was observed to be far too small – and all of them had been designed 1916 or 1917, the Curtiss JN-4 even in 1915. Many large units didn’t have air support at all. Civil German Junkers F 13 had to be requisitioned and to be used for transport missions, because the indigene Martin MB-1 was not at hand in sufficient numbers.
And the few fighters and bombers – mainly SE 5 and Airco DH.4 types – in active service did have a hard time with the ubiquitous French SPAD XVIIs and Breguet 19s, modern designs which the Mexicans had acquired (because they easily could be flown into country, by-passing the naval blockade) together with a core of experienced French combat veteran pilots.
Thus, specifications went out to the US aircraft industry as well, asking them to design modern combat aircraft.

However, it was clear to the men on the ground that none of these new items would arrive in time. They would have to finish the Spics with what was at hand.
Some pessimists even oracled that all these orders would be cancelled, once the war had been won.
 
When the Big Groundfish Makes the Earth Tremble

On Saturday, September 1st, 1923, disaster struck Nippon. The earthquake, which rocked the Kantō Region on the Japanese main island of Honshū two minutes before noon, killed perhaps ‘only’ 1,000 people directly. But hardly had the trembling stopped, when the first fires erupted. The fire storms, fed from broken gas lines and fanned by typhoon gales, raging in Tokyo, Yokohama and in a dozen of smaller towns, became the real killers.

In the end, the total number of fatal casualties was estimated to be 145,000, including approximately 40,000 missing persons; about half a million of people had been injured.
Because not only the gas lines had been broken, but also the water mains, it took two days to put out the fires.

Five lesser members of the Imperial Family had been killed, but Hirohito, the Sesshō, had remained unharmed. The incapacitated Emperor Yoshihito and his wife had not been in the area.
In Tokyo, the Japanese National Bank, the Imperial Museum, the Meiji University, the Military Academy, several theatres, the Kamon Temple and the Central Station had been destroyed.
The ambassadors of Italy and the France had been killed, like about 1,000 other Europeans.
In Yokohama, numerous ships anchoring in the roads had been sunk.

More than 570,000 homes had been destroyed, leaving about 1.9 million people homeless. Total damage was estimated to exceed one billion dollars.

Panic and confusion reigned after the quake and while the fires were raging. Troops were ordered to kill the animals in the Tokyo Zoo, before these could break free.
Koreans were rumoured to be responsible for arson and robbery; and quite a number of them (and also some Chinese, which had been mistaken for Koreans) were killed by spontaneous lynch mobs.
Tokyo was said to have been completely wiped out, including Prime Minister Hara’s cabinet and the Imperial House. Other reports saw the whole Kantō Region sinking into the sea.
Only slowly did normality return to a Japan now poorer than before.

After the vicious Russians, now Nature had punished Nippon. And many Japanese were timidly asking what might be the next stroke of fate hitting them.
 
I'll try to beat the record:

Fleeing the Guards of the Reaction

Johann Sigismund Freiherr von und zu Bodman, a Württemberger born in Paris and current Ambassador of the German Empire in Ciudad de México, warily eyed the American soldiers manning the checkpoint at the entrance to the street, in which the German Embassy was situated.
If these were Germans, Italians or Mexicans, they would know him and wave his car through. But they were Americans, inflexible as railway locomotives; they would invariably stop the vehicle and check it.
Georg, his driver, already knew the procedure; Bodman decided to ignore the affair and concentrated on his newspaper.
Bodman, a scion of the landed Southern German gentry, considered himself quite a cosmopolitan, but these stupid Americans really infuriated him. What a band of morons! They would control him to the hilt each time even if he passed the checkpoint every five minutes while the very same soldiers were still on duty.
How could a nation composed of such intellectual dwarfs rise to the status of a world power?

Hilda, his personal amanuensis, already had the coffee ready.
“There’s a visitor for you, Herr Botschafter.”
“Who is it?”
“She wouldn’t say her name. – But of course I knew her. It’s Miss Luxemburg!”
“Good God! – Tell her to wait a moment. I first need to read the latest directives from Berlin again...”

The petite woman with the marked limp looked rather uncomfortable when Hilda let her in.
Bodman met her in the middle of the room and offered his hand.
“Miss Luxemburg, I’m extraordinarily pleased to meet you. Please, have a seat! – Coffee? Biscuits? – Feel free to have a smoke.”
Rosa Luxemburg obviously had problems to meet a representative of the ancient feudal class on equal footing.
Bodman also felt slightly uneasy with this prominent communist leader, but he was experienced enough in dealing with disgusting persons not to let it know.
“I suppose, you have not come here to discuss the weather with me, Gnädiges Fräulein. – So, what can I do for you?”
Now Luxemburg smiled. She was happy not to have to converse in the bourgeois mode and appreciated his briskness.
“I want to ask you for embassy asylum and transfer to Germany.”
“Oh? – No more revolution in Mexico?”
“To be frank: No. A revolution I could support is no longer possible, after the US capitalists have intervened. This now is the fight of the whole Mexican people against foreign invaders; it no longer has to do with the emancipation of a special class within the Mexican society and the transformation of the society. – It’s very much like any war in history, but not anything I can help with. – I gladly want to leave this whole affair to Pancho Villa and Leon Trotsky; they have ample experience with this kind of business and even enjoy it. But it’s no longer my thing, I hate bloodshed and I fear war. I need to get out of here.”

“I’ll have to ask Berlin for the transfer; but I’m authorised to offer you asylum here at the embassy. – As far as I know, the USA have put you on their ‘Most Wanted’ list. Thus, it may become quite difficult to get you out of here.”
“I have another question.”
“Please.”
“Would you also accommodate Miss Emma Goldman?”
 
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Rast,

I was just wondering when or if we'll see this timeline consolidated and posted on the "Timelines and Scenarios" board?

It's well worth the effort and that will make the timeline much easier to read.


Bill
 
Actually, I rather need inputs - which are coming continuously yet slowly - to advance. This is not a timeline with preset outcome. I always try to calculate how things might go on. Good advice always helps me to procede.
In a nutshell: There's no finished 'A Shift in Priorities' timeline, I'm not copying from a preset text.
 
Rast,

Please excuse me. I expressed myself rather poorly.

I didn't think the timeline was finished or that you were merely "cutting & pasting" from a completed text. I was interested in whether the parts of the timeline you have already finished could be posted to the "Timelines and Scenarios" board.

From what I understand, the biggest requirement for that board is that 10 years of completed timeline exist and you have over 10 years "in the can" here. You could post "A Shift in Priorities, 19XX to 19XX" to the scenarios board while still working on the later portions of the same timeline here.

I think a consolidated and cleaned up portion of "A Shift in Priorities" would help people grasp your timeline better and lead to more suggestions here.


Bill
 
Gone

Tuesday, September 4th, 1923, saw the ‘Königin Luise’ missing.

The airship had departed from New York at noontime on Monday and had set course towards the Zeppelin station near Belmullet in Ireland. Until four o’clock in the morning, radio signals had been sent routinely. After this – nothing... No Mayday, no SOS...

85 passengers and 68 crew members had been on board, the most prominent ones being the retired Vice Admiral Alfred Meyer-Waldeck, Governor of Kiautschou (Jiāozhōu) in 1914, and the novelist Ludwig Heinrich Mann.

The German Navy immediately dispatched two Navy Zeppelins, MLZ 12 and 19, plus the two new cruisers, SMS Dortmund and SMS Düsseldorf, which had been doing anti-submarine exercises between Iceland and the Faroe Islands, for a search. Both cruisers were equipped with FUMEO and Echolot.

But the ‘Königin Luise’ remained missing. No trace of her was ever found.

As could be expected, this incident started a debate about the security of Zeppelins versus conventional ocean liners. After all, modern ocean liners were almost as fast as Zeppelins, was one saved day in transit really worth the extra money for a Zeppelin ride?
Proponents of the Zeppelin explained that while only 153 persons were missing at present, the sinking of the ‘Titanic’ had cost 1,517 lifes – and the ‘Empress of Ireland’ had killed 1,012 of her passengers.

The most disturbing fact was, however, the sudden disappearance of the Zeppelin. There were quite a number of mishaps that could happen to an airship, but none of them should make it vanish abruptly. An explosion was rather unlikely, Helium didn’t burn and wouldn’t explode. There had been no storm and the sea had been calm.

Quite a number of conspiracy theories popped up as a consequence. Pirates, bombs, a collision with another airship, a collision with an aeroplane, secret experiments of outlaw scientists, etc. – None of these ever managed to completely match the known facts.

On Sunday, September 9th, a commemorative service was held at the Staaken aerodrome, the home base of the ‘Königin Luise’. And on Monday, September 10th, the Zeppelin ‘Kaiserin Augusta’ left Staaken for New York.
The DELAG would not quit business only because one of their airships was missing for unknown reasons. – But half of the passenger berths remained empty this time...
 
uh, the DELAG gets in trouble? I don't like this! Save the zeppelins - have them do a mighty PR action like "around the world in 50 days" and succeed gloriously... or fail miserably ;)
Anyway, this is one of my favorite TL's on this board - keep it up!
 
The Capital of French Socialism

Nineteen year old Deng Xixian was the son of a not really wealthy farmer from Xiexing in the Sichuan Province. Because he had visited a secondary school at Chongqing, which prepared young Chinese for studies in France, he had gone to France in late 1920 – together with his uncle, Deng Shaosheng, who only was few years older than Xixian.
But the France of 1920/21 was not the France young Xixian had heard about from his teachers at Chongqing. Most important of all – the promised bursary never had materialised, forcing Xixian to work for his living instead of improving his French and going to university. Uncle Shaosheng soon had given up and had returned to China, but Xixian had been determined to make the best out of this sojourn in Europe.
The social climate in France was not favouring non-white people, Xixian had only found jobs, which no Frenchman wanted and which were ill-paid for the toil required. And hardly anybody ever had been friendly to him. He was an unwanted foreigner for them – and they didn’t bother to let him know.
But what could he do? French was the only European language he could speak…

Finally, Xixian ended up in Metz. When Germany had annexed what today was ‘Lothringen’ in 1871, the city still had been a German language enclave in a francophone environment. But over the years, things had become bilingual and Xixian’s French was agreeable everywhere.
In fact, there were quite many Frenchmen in town, who had only recently immigrated from France proper, and French clearly was gaining ground.
As Xixian slowly found out, French Socialists – another variety of people unwelcome in France – made up the majority of these new arrivals.
The German authorities were indifferent, there was no obstruction but also no help – neither for the French Socialists nor for Xixian.
But the German Socialists – the SPD and the KPD – cared for their French fellow travellers; and both parties offered Xixian a small bursary if he would join their ranks. (Xixian didn’t know that there were numerous Chinese students in Germany, many of which favoured Socialist ideas – and for whose membership the SPD and the KPD battled intensely.)

From his experience in France, Xixian tended to support the more radical KPD. But what he saw in Germany, made him think twice.
When Xixian had come to Germany, the SPD/FVP government of Friedrich Ebert had already been replaced by Matthias Erzberger’s centre-right cabinet, but Xixian learned that the SPD had governed Germany from 1918 to 1921 – and had been instrumental in reforming the once authoritarian structures into a working democracy, while the KPD never had ruled anywhere and only cried radical paroles without providing proof about their practicability.
Now, Germany was a prospering country with perfectly working structures. What the SPD had accomplished couldn’t be ignored. German workers enjoyed the most comprehensive and efficient system of social security in the world. Obviously, Germany was a rich country, and one of the – if not the foremost – nations leading in science and technology.
In autumn of 1921, Xixian had joined the SPD – and had been rewarded with a modest fellowship, which nevertheless allowed him to complete his studies of the French language and to start learning German.

One thing that had truly astonished Xixian was the ubiquitous presence of black people everywhere. There also had been black people in France – which had ‘enjoyed’ a social status equal to Xixian’s. Here in Germany, these Negroes were apprentices, learning in administration and economy. The Germans treated them well, although sometimes rather gruff and impolite – but that was, as Xixian had already understood, the typical German way of doing things. They also were very gruff and impolite to each other.
These Negroes all spoke impeccable German, something that deeply impressed Xixian. His new SPD comrades explained him why this was so. Already before the Great War, the Germans had seen that German immigration to their colonies would never reach any substance. If the colonies ever were to become self-sufficient or even profitable, this could only happen by educating the natives. As a consequence, the educational systems in the colonies had been upgraded. With the post-war decision to emancipate the colonies, the educational systems had experienced another incredible boom. It was thought that today all indigene people in the German colonies – including the Congo – could speak and understand German and that about half of them already were practised in reading and writing German.

The French Socialists in Metz had welcomed their new Chinese SPD comrade as well. At least for the first two years, Xixian had felt more comfortable in a francophone environment.
Today, in autumn of 1923, his German was good enough to allow him to join the university in Straßburg and commence his studies of economy and international law. After passing a German language test, he had qualified for a state financed bursary that would support him for the next three years.
 
In my knowledge, after they kicked out the British, India developed into a loose Confederation, but each state makes its own laws and such. To be honest, rast hasn't updated India for a while, or for about two years in the Timeline, so quite a bit could have happened by then and we haven't known it yet.
 
Well if it's input you're looking for, I think you'll find an audience for just about any country in the world that you haven't covered in a while. I've been anxiously awaiting an update on the brushfires the Japanese kicked up along the Russian Pacific coast. Should be possible for them to maintain something there. I could see the whole region under their control, or just a few enclaves, but it'd be the place to test just the kind of theories the Germans developed in their coastal African campaign.

And the Central Asian states seem very interesting. If Pan-Turkism has strengthened these states sufficiently (and if China's in a state of anarchy) might they expand into Western China, at least a bit? The Uighurs are Turkic, after all. Not sure how Ottoman power projection works in Central Asia though, as I'm not recalling a common border.

Afghanistan was also mentioned as a placeholder state, scooping up the Baluchs in the process. That looked to me like the impetus for statebuilding, but they'll need outside investment. Most European countries seem too invested elsewhere to bother, but I was thinking this might be the place for British business interests (sacked with severance as they seem to be) to start to rebuild. Hat in hand of course, and not with aims of dominance, just a stable place to invest money. And I could be way off base, but didn't they at least always have a better relationship with the Baluchs?

Finally, I don't believe we've had resolution in the East Indies. Seems like an opportunity there for the Japanese to support several Independence movements at once and set up a Caribbean-like panoply of nations, dominating them one-by-one. And the Philippines? You mentioned that the Americans were letting them go, but has the Mexican War accelerated that? More satellites for Japan, or a stronger basis for a Pacific alliance with Australia/New Zealand?
 
India and the Dutch East Indies are on my schedule. I've not yet invested much consideration to Central Asian affairs, but the Uighur question has some merit - and can be expanded.
Afghanistan is more of framework nation for tribal interests, not so much a player of its own. As the oil and gas of Central Asia have not yet been discovered, I don't see too much interest in getting into business with them. Rather, the Brits might try to revive their business with India.
For the Philippines, we'll have to see how the war in Central America develops.
 
Mh, ITTL English is no world language. The language of the diplomats is still French.
English is not taught widely in Continental Europe (German kids still learn French for first foreign language - if not Latin or classic Greek!) and the Spanish speaking world - nor any longer in Africa or India.
So, although - like Latin before - French has lost its power base, it may continue to be used as lingua franca for quite some time.
Technological change may bring about the necessity to shift to the language of the nation leading the process. Yet, we still have to see who that will be. (Main contenders right now: USA, Germany, Japan)
 
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