A Shift in Priorities - Sequel

Sooo... did the scientists completely underestimate the energy released by the device or what exactly happened? That would have to be a major theoretical mishap if their equipment and bunker were misplaced like that. It's not as if that is the first nuclear bomb on the planet. Well, fusion devices were a bit of a surprise

This is their first atomic device, they attempted a double strike (fission +fusion).
So they may have overdone on the fission devices as well.
in a normal early (Pu) nuke 20% undergoes fission, with the sheer neutron flood coming from 4 bombs going off simultaneously i expect a much higher yield.
 
The fire you kindle for your enemy often burns yourself more than them.
(Chinese proverb)

Poruchik Gennady Andreyevich Meshcherskiy was lucky that the Kósmos space station was orbiting above South America when Fēilóng went off. Otherwise, he might not only have lost his eyesight, but the station might well have been cooked out to scrap metal. So, by the time Kósmos had swung around the globe, the little sun had already died down. Sitting high in the bleachers, Meshcherskiy was gaping at the monstrous dark cloud that seemed to cover half of Russia and all of China. His radio was dead; Achinsk had fallen silent – and even fierce turning of the frequency button didn't produce anything.

But he could film and photograph the monster – and speak his observations into the microphone of the tape recorder, which he did most intensively, until all recording material was used up. In addition, he wrote down what he was seeing and measuring. He wasn't quite sure whether he would ever be able to pass on his observations – until on the evening of the third day, some radio stations, whose language Meshcherskiy couldn't understand, came on the air again – and in the early morning of day four after Fēilóng, Achinsk reported for duty again.

The Chinese scientists had calculated Fēilóng's yield to be 50 megatons – with the possibility that it might rise to 100 under most favourable conditions. What they got were about 1,500 megatons. – They had achieved a miracle of synchronicity and precision – and had been rewarded by the emergence of a little sun that shone for about three seconds until it died down for lack of fuel. – Unfortunately, none of those out to witness the test survived the event... Even the Pan–Turan and Russian units tasked to monitor the experiment in Gansu from their side of the border were wiped out.

Only the fact that the whole area and its neighbourhood were extremely sparsely inhabited prevented a major humanitarian calamity. However, the enormous cloud that went to dim the northern hemisphere for weeks to come – and the bountiful fallout from that cloud – bore witness to the Great Qing Doomsday Device, under which designation Fēilóng was to become infamous. January 24, 1951, would go down in history as the day when man challenged the universe – and the universe struck back...

Until today, the Japanese – and many scientists all around the world – blame Fēilóng for the devastating earthquake that shook Honshū on February 3, 1951, and killed more than 750,000 people.
 
oopsie....

actually Meshcherskiy might be in considerable danger.
the mushroom cloud of the Tsar Bomba reached 64km, something this magnitude will eject a considerable amount into orbit, probably akin to what the starfish prime test did, maybe even more.
Not just debris, but also radioactive stuff.

considering the earth magnetic field is actually waning towards its next flip, something this big will at least make the magnetic field wobble, but a flip is possible.
they will have wonderful auroras though

for comparison, this explosion is comparable to a 220m asteroid (metallic) or 305m rocky
 
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Wow...

That's a big nuke...
But despite the nuclear fireball, I would want to live in this timeline. I just finished reading!
...but will Japan declare war on China because of the earthquake?
 
That's a big nuke...
But despite the nuclear fireball, I would want to live in this timeline. I just finished reading!
...but will Japan declare war on China because of the earthquake?

what is left of china......

Being is 1600km east of it, i expecting they will get a huge share of fallout & radioactive rain, plus a huge amount of acid rain (the fireball producing NOx)am
 
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1.5 gigatons, huh? Is that even possible? Anyway, this is a catastrophe that might just check a nuclear arms race before it has properly begun. The idea should be shelved in case of an alien invasion, however :D

Depending on the severity of the aftereffects, the Great Qing Empire might have managed to piss off the combined rest of the world for decades.

Edit: That fucking oversized Chinese firecracker might just have ushered in a small nuclear winter...the Toba eruption (yes, the one that almost wiped out early humanity) "only" had 150 megatons strength. Krakatoa was 200 mt. Luckily, the blast was on the surface rather than subterranean. In any case, the glassed crater must be something to behold.

I had to think of Dr Stangelove's Soviet doomsday device.

Try Nukemap Classic for an idea of the size of the initiation. The fireball has a radius of almost 9 km and the thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns to unprotected skin) is almost 234 km :eek:

Linkety-link: http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/classic/?lat=46.10728674274831&lng=86.86135282812506&zm=5&kt=1500000
 
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nukemap shows it in the wrong location though

in correct location:
http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/c...7555273&lng=97.36428251562506&zm=5&kt=1500000

the tsar bomba managed to break windows 400km away and had a 6km fireball.

i think the actual figures could much higher, since nukemap only is precise until 150Mt

edit: and a thought on the ozonelayer, i expect the fireball to be bigger than 9km vertical, especially since the atmosphere is thinning rapid at that altitude, so it will make quite an impact on the level where the ozone is (20-30km)
So what will this monster do to the local ozone layer...
 
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Whoever ordered this was completely insane.

1.5 gigatons, huh? Is that even possible? Anyway, this is a catastrophe that might just check a nuclear arms race before it has properly begun. The idea should be shelved in case of an alien invasion, however :D
It's possible. But only if designed that way. Okay, the overcompensated with a ridiculous starting point of 50-100 MT, which already was insane. That's the yield of the biggest nuclear device ever initiated by very experienced Soviets - who wisely decided that they were okay with the lower 50 MT limit instead of wasting effort on going bigger.

That's not a reasonable first effort experiment in the 'let's see what will happen' category. It would have held up their actual nuclear programs for months/years just to produce all the fissile material needed instead of doing something sensible with it.

I though China was doing okay, but for this project to happen, some Best Korean bullshit must have been going on. The entire chain of command responsible for this project must have been a menagerie of psychologically disturbed fuck-ups. Megalomania, inferior complexes, anti-Russian one-up-manship, war trauma, not daring to question your boss or the desire not to lose face must have come together in one epic clusterfuck for this to come that far.

Then the device somehow managed to release 1500% more energy than expected. That's not the same as happened in historical theoretical oversights - the material didn't just unexpectedly fuse to a higher percentage than expected. Not unless they thought they would only get less than one tenth-of-a-percent of their fuel to actually fuse/split. It's not something which is in the realm of a calculation error. They must have managed to accidentally tap an additional power source with the force of the initial device. Additional deuterium tanks sitting way to close? Did they actually manage to fuse air? Aliens? Tiberium? Magic?
 
This was the very first fusion device ever created. So every calculation was only theoretical up until that point. It could very well be that they over engineered it that badly. Especially since they made a whole building with 4 fission reactions for it.

Look at how badly they messed up castle Bravo. That bomb was actual bomb size with a single nuclear reaction fuelling it, and that happened after they already had some experiences with fusion bombs.
 
This was the very first fusion device ever created. So every calculation was only theoretical up until that point. It could very well be that they over engineered it that badly. Especially since they made a whole building with 4 fission reactions for it.

Look at how badly they messed up castle Bravo. That bomb was actual bomb size with a single nuclear reaction fuelling it, and that happened after they already had some experiences with fusion bombs.

That's not how science works. You don't just build something without having a theoretical model of what will happen. If your theoretical model is off by more than 1500%, then the error did not lie in overengineering! Rather something completely different than planned happened.

Edit: This is after all not a high school chemistry experiment gone wrong but the fruit of years of labor by hundreds of scientists and engineers on a national mega-project, where each decision is checked and double-checked multiple times.
 
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first of all, they never built fission devices either.
i think they overdid on that, but as i already wrote, the nearby detonation of other devices may have upped the efficiency of the fission bombs, thus also creating more pressure. also the amount of deuterium in a h-bomb is fairly small, here they had a friggin deuterium tank.

very well possible they underestimated what the deuterium would do.
unless of course in the hurry to impress the world, they did not do calculations on the h-bomb, only on the fission devices. decided to stack them on a tetrahedron, put a deuterium tank in the middle, and see what happens.

That's not how science works. You don't just build something without having a theoretical model of what will happen. If your theoretical model is off by more than 1500%, then the error did not lie in overengineering! Rather something completely different than planned happened.

did you see what kitiem wrote about castle bravo? That was planned to be 6Mt, but turned out to be 15Mt, that is off by 250%
Edit: This is after all not a high school chemistry experiment gone wrong but the fruit of years of labor by hundreds of scientists and engineers on a national mega-project, where each decision is checked and double-checked multiple times.
but it is also highly experimental, and when politicians and national prestige are involved, and scientist that do no say no, some dumb politicians might just decide to push things a little further.
the checking is done by politicians and scientists, with the politicians having the final word, and they have different priorities than scientists.
 
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but it is also highly experimental, and when politicians and national prestige are involved, and scientist that do no say no, some dumb politicians might just decide to push things a little further.
the checking is done by politicians and scientists, with the politicians having the final word, and they have different priorities than scientists.
That's exactly what I wrote. A Best Korea comedy of bullshit must have been going on. As you said, maybe they never even tried figuring out what was going to happen with their deuterium isotopes in the tank.

The thing I disputed about kitiem's post was that such a ridiculously extreme error was...
A) excusable on the basis of all calculations up to that point being theoretical. That's not how science works. Either no calculations were made at all or their theoretical physics was dead wrong about what kind of reactions were going to happen, as their calculated yield clearly had nothing to do with the actual power released by their device.
B) excusable on the basis of simple overengineering. You don't accidentally exceed what you set out to achieve by 15-30 times. This is an order of magnitude more severe than Castle Bravo. There, they wrongly assumed that one specific type of deuterium isotope concentrated to 60% in their fuel would be inert for the purpose of their reaction. Here, for a similar mistake to happen, they would have to assume... what? That their deuterium tank actually only contained normal sea water? I don't know - the 'they just put a tank of the best deuterium they could make in there without knowing what would happen' is indeed the best explanation. A very big tank indeed for the energy released to be possible. Building sized. Which is Best Korea level of idiocy. Every involved would have had to completely shut off their brain.

Edit: oops - thousand times was wrong, it's 1500%
 
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The Chinese nuclear team does come off as hilariously incompetent here, but I kind of think that was the point. They went straight for fusion devices without even building a single fission bomb first, we haven't heard anything about the Chinese nuclear program before, and while there has been mentions of nuclear scientists cooperating and sharing data multiple times for the other bomb projects (Even the British sent out their nuclear scientists at least for a little while) we haven't heard anything about the Chinese keeping up with the latest international research.

While it would require an extremely unlikely comedy of errors, it is possible that what happened here was a case of a glory-hounding Chinese government pushing scientists who, on account of having only old and/or incomplete data to work off of, actually don't know what they're doing.
 
considering the description is just a tank, i assume they went straight for lithium-deuteride, since a frozen hydrogen/deuterium/tritium mix would require a cryogenic system, don't think a tank with heavy water would work.
add to that the enhanced efficiency of the fission devices and it all gets likely.
considering that according the story the individual devices were almost the size of a tsar bomba, one can assume a 100-150Kt yield. the early Pu bombs had and conversion efficiency of 25%, so 75% gets blown away. in this case about 30-40% gets blown in the direction of another wavefront, making sure that this fissile material will also split. so that adds another 100-150 per device. and the force of this secondary fission will ensure that the core will stay compressed longer than in a normal fusion device, thus increasing yield.
And if they made the same mistake as with castle bravo (underestimating the reactivity of the lithium isotopes) then the whole things isn't that unbelievable.

Considering the stupid plans that have been suggested in OTL (and thankfully never done) this one is not that far out.
 
considering the description is just a tank, i assume they went straight for lithium-deuteride, since a frozen hydrogen/deuterium/tritium mix would require a cryogenic system, don't think a tank with heavy water would work.
add to that the enhanced efficiency of the fission devices and it all gets likely.
considering that according the story the individual devices were almost the size of a tsar bomba, one can assume a 100-150Kt yield. the early Pu bombs had and conversion efficiency of 25%, so 75% gets blown away. in this case about 30-40% gets blown in the direction of another wavefront, making sure that this fissile material will also split. so that adds another 100-150 per device. and the force of this secondary fission will ensure that the core will stay compressed longer than in a normal fusion device, thus increasing yield.
And if they made the same mistake as with castle bravo (underestimating the reactivity of the lithium isotopes) then the whole things isn't that unbelievable.

Considering the stupid plans that have been suggested in OTL (and thankfully never done) this one is not that far out.

Maybe my calculation is off? I looked up the yield-to-weight ratios for nuclear reactions and also picked LiD, which has a maximum theoretical yield of 50 kT TNT / kg according to the site I looked at (wiki). I assumed that the energy contributed by the fission reaction was negligible at such an enormous event. As far as I am aware the casing and those four fission crude bombs couldn't have contained enough fissile material to release more than single digit MTs at max from the fission-fusion-fission chain. At least that's what I am assuming - that those kind of boosted fission reactions don't scale past a certain point, which should have been exceeded by the gigaton doomsday device.

Therefore I arrived at a mass of around 30 tons of LiD that must be fused to achieve 1 500 MT. Obviously, that was little more than eyeballing assuming on one hand an unrealistically 100% efficient fusion device, on the other hand neglecting any kind of boosted fission reactions with the four fission bombs, etc. . Still, the general order of magnitude of the mass used should be correct?

So, hundreds of Chinese scientists, engineers, and administrators worked on a project to unleash a power source which was supposed to be more powerful than nuclear fission. They assembled a device which contained dozens of tons - tons! - of fuel for that reaction. Not one of them successfully spoke up and questioned how they could possibly need dozens of tons of the stuff even though it was supposed to be more powerful than the fission devices they had also assembled, which probably contain less than a hundred kilogram of fission core material. That staggering inflation of the deployed fusion fuel into a truly ludicrous amount way past the point at which common sense should be ringing all the alarm bells in town is why I reject the notion that it is excusable as simple over-engineering or a theoretical mishap.
As long as they assumed that any kind of isotope present in the device would fuse at all, their numbers should have immediately exceeded the 100 MT maximum limit they supposedly expected.

I repeat that I am not claiming that such a project of monumental idiocy is in the realm of the completely impossible. My statement was that this is a truly catastrophic breakdown of organized bureaucracy on the Best Korea level of 'shut-off-your-brain-just-follow-orders-and-be-a-yes-man'. Which has bad implications for the state of China at the time even though I assumed that they were doing well for themselves. Not that it matters all that much now...
 
I am leery of making too strong a statement about the science, seeing as how I am not a nuclear physicist, but a fusion reaction at least has no real upper limit accept fuel. That's why the sun has been at it for a good while without fizzling out.

So for the sake of the story I'm just going to accept that the Chinese had a very (un)lucky first test shot because of the stupidity of their leaders and/or scientists.

The blast actually covered a significant fraction of their landmass. This is close to being disaster porn. I wonder how the average Chinese is reacting to this. National pride or horror? At least IITL they really do have a landmark visible from outer space.
 
, which probably contain less than a hundred kilogram of fission core material.

one thing to remember is that Pu bombs use U238 as tamper/booster and as a radiation shield & capture of neutrons. the core is probably rather small.
the core cannot be scaled, but the U238 mantle can.
the original design for the tsar bomba planned to use Uranium for its tamper, and in that config would have yielded 100Mt, instead they used a lead tamper, which gave a yield of 50Mt
 
Success consists of getting up just one more time than you fall.
(William Wordsworth)

Yeah, not only that one had to fight a savage plague. No, these stupid Chinese had to add radioactive fallout and electronic breakdown to the vicious potpourri. The winter winds, like the Harmattan in the WAU, were carrying the radiative stuff down south; only the coastal part of Groß Togoland, southern Nigeria and most of Kamerun were protected by the southeastern tradewind. Radios gone haywire could be repaired or replaced, it only took some time to do it. Mercifully, Middle Africa was relying on fixed telephone lines and human operators, thus, the ongoing operations could continue despite wireless outage.

The English had sent a new commander–in–chief to Lagos. Max Sikuku had been briefed about General Brown by Abwehr and general staff. – It looked like cronyism: Brown and Prime Minister Wintringham had fought together in Spain; and Brown had a solid reputation for being true to party principles. Yet, Brown had been in charge of the English nuclear programme – and that was quite a success story. The specialists thought it unlikely that Brown, who had only had a concise elementary education, had been more than a figurehead. But Max wasn't convinced: the military – just like any business – was much about organisation. Most probably, Brown was an able organiser – and could make men do what she wanted. One didn't need an university degree or a general staff training for that; he himself and Otto Mwaya were ample proof of it.

In fact, Brown had quickly unburdened coordination procedures between Nigeria and Middle Africa. It wasn't easy still, but far less bedlam than before. One was getting precise information, at least. There were three seats of infection in Nigeria right now, all three sealed off. But it was most likely that other seats just hadn't yet reached the end of the incubation phase. – The antidote delivered to Nigeria by Minkaba on Max' behest was judged essential for fighting the disease. Of course, they wanted more of it. But the batches outsourced to I.G. Farben in Germany hadn't arrived yet – and Minkaba were already working at the very limit of their capacity.

The stay put policy in Nigeria, already inaugurated prior to General Brown's arrival, was still in effect – and working – so far. However, looking at the information supplied by the English, Max had the impression that English control didn't extend to the territory north of rivers Niger and Benue. That left a stretch of land about two hundred kilometres wide, bordering on northern Groß Togoland, Ala Ka Kuma and Oberkamerun – where nobody seemed to be enforcing anything...

As could be expected, the English wouldn't admit to that deficiency. Max had already asked the military for increased aerial surveillance – and had initiated the preparation of land lines of communication. – Well, one had to admit that not only the English were less present in the respective northern territories... That was one of the basic problems: too much open country with too few decent infrastructure. Once things went the bad way, there was little to stop them from slipping further and further...

[FONT=&quot]Best he went over to Lagos himself to discuss matters face–to–face. If General Brown was the character he assumed she was, one might come to an understanding that benefitted all involved. The English certainly were not interested in losing Nigeria. And Middle Africa had no interest in getting all the Nigerians. – Once one had met – and agreed in principle, one could have a point–to–point telephone line installed. Yeah, all told, Max was coming to appreciate crisis management. It was a fascinating job... [/FONT]
 
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