A scenario that's hard to explain...

Reading this article from the War Nerd got me thinking. What if Gorbachev had been disobeyed by his senior generals and most of the military earlier? Could they have perhaps launched an attack on Europe after deposing him in a coup? What PODs would be neccesary to cause such a change, and what PODs would result from such a change?
 

Faeelin

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Romulus Augustulus said:
Reading this article from the War Nerd got me thinking. What if Gorbachev had been disobeyed by his senior generals and most of the military earlier? Could they have perhaps launched an attack on Europe after deposing him in a coup? What PODs would be neccesary to cause such a change, and what PODs would result from such a change?
We all die, as thousands of nuclear warheads are exchanged across the world.
 
I'm pretty positive that as long as the war stays conventional, the West will keep the air superiority, anyway what time or day the East attacks.

That means, most of the Russian tanks and airplanes will be blasted to pieces, and only the lightly armored vehicles and the foot soldiers will be a serious problem.

Furthermore, in the 80s, the Leopard II was probably the best tank in the world - even today it's among the best. Afaik, unlike the French, the Germans didn't have battlefield management at the time, but that can partly be done with maps, erasable pens and conventional communications.

That will dramatically reduce problems with Soviet soldiers and light vehicles.

A very serious question is, whether the Fulda Gap weakness is discovered by the West before or after that war. If the West is unprepared, Western Germany is split in two, and most of Western Germany's industrial and raw material base is destroyed in the first one or two days of the battle. But even that will leave most of the western German army intact, and supplies will be brought in by the allies.

By that time, the French will probably show the Soviets what battlefield management means, and they will help drive the Soviets out, despite tanks of similar quality on both sides.

All in all, I do expect much of Germany to be run over by a Soviet surprise attack - but also a pretty early rebound, that will then lead to a conventional liberation of Eastern Europe.

Only question is, whether the nerves of the top brass on both sides will be strong enough to keep a nuclear exchange from happening. I suppose as long as the West doesn't liberate more than Eastern Europe and other satellites (and not the Soviet heart land), it might end just like the Cold War, but with several million more deaths.
 
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If it stays conventional with only tactical usage of nuclear and chemical weapons, I think that we can say farewell to Germany. Maybe the eastern parts of the Benelux countries and parts of western Czechslovakia and Poland. The fallout and the refugees won't do Austria or Switzerland any good, either...
 
Then we have a world where the transport net in Eastern Europe in shambles, most of the USSR's trucks smashed along with most of the men between 18 and 30 dead/crippled, and the Soviet economy is going to be worse than OTL.

Oh, and the US will offer no aid and support, and the EU can't.

We get to choose between nuclear horror and the very Soviet generals who started all this accepting terms tantamount to Soviet unconditional surrender.
 
Oh...and Western Europe won't be in a very good position, either. Germany will be the only area reduced to a wasteland, but there will be food shortages, fallout...basically, everything from the Bay of Biscay to the Oder River will be a hell of anarchy, rioting, starvation, radiation, post-apocalyptic motorcycle gangs and remnants of the former militaries going around raping and pillaging. The USSR will survive...just barely...and the US will probably get along well enough. It'll be hell, though...the US'll probably end up invading a collapsing USSR and what not...
 
Romulus Augustulus said:
Oh...and Western Europe won't be in a very good position, either. Germany will be the only area reduced to a wasteland, but there will be food shortages, fallout...basically, everything from the Bay of Biscay to the Oder River will be a hell of anarchy, rioting, starvation, radiation, post-apocalyptic motorcycle gangs and remnants of the former militaries going around raping and pillaging. The USSR will survive...just barely...and the US will probably get along well enough. It'll be hell, though...the US'll probably end up invading a collapsing USSR and what not...
Come to think of it, Wouldn't what the US soldiers see in Europe after the war probably lead to an isolationist movement back home?
 
Romulus Augustulus said:
If it stays conventional with only tactical usage of nuclear and chemical weapons, I think that we can say farewell to Germany. Maybe the eastern parts of the Benelux countries and parts of western Czechslovakia and Poland. The fallout and the refugees won't do Austria or Switzerland any good, either...

I wouldn't consider tactical nukes conventional warfare - their use would rather be a limited nuclear war. Europe's East-West divide might become testing ground for them. But I suppose like gas in WWII, both sides could handle not using them, even the loosing side, as long as no really vital interests are in danger and as long as it doesn't appear that a prolonged conventional war costs even more lives than a nuclear war.
 
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