A Putin-less Russia

cubefreak123 · Mar 16, 2014

So let's say that in February 2000 Vladimir Putin suffers an accident. Let's say he slips on some ice while going down some stairs and hits his head on the ground causing some serious damage to his brain. Because of this he withdraws from politics. With presidential elections the next month this leads to some questions:

Who would likely become elected now?

Would the new president follow the same course as Putin domestically and internationally?

Would the Russian economy have picked up as much as it did?

Could this have an effect on other countries? Would the former Soviet states move more towards the West without Putin's influence?

Kome · Mar 16, 2014

Funnily, there were at least two assassination attempts on Putin in 2000 after being elected, as far as accidents go.

Pericles · Mar 16, 2014

I think maybe Zyuganov would get elected, but I am not knowledgeable about this subject.

Pangur · Mar 16, 2014

If you are hoping for a continuation of the Boris Yeltsin years then I suspect that you have zero chance. The Russians had had there fill of corruption and being the laughing stock of Europe. As to how assertive the alternative Putin would be is open to question however it would be a matter of degree rather than not being so

General Tirpitz · Mar 16, 2014

Kome said:
Funnily, there were at least two assassination attempts on Putin in 2000 after being elected, as far as accidents go.

Getting Putin killed while he was working in the St. Petersburg administration in the 1990's wouldn't' be probably too difficult. He was involved in some rather shady businesses and just needs to anger some powerful enough person.

MarshalBraginsky · Mar 16, 2014

Pericles said:
I think maybe Zyuganov would get elected, but I am not knowledgeable about this subject.

Well there's that timeline about Zhirinovsky taking over Russia, though the world of Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire is way more craptastic than OTL.

Pangur said:
If you are hoping for a continuation of the Boris Yeltsin years then I suspect that you have zero chance. The Russians had had there fill of corruption and being the laughing stock of Europe. As to how assertive the alternative Putin would be is open to question however it would be a matter of degree rather than not being so

How about the Union State actually becomes real, with Lukashenko becoming the first President?

General Tirpitz said:
Getting Putin killed while he was working in the St. Petersburg administration in the 1990's wouldn't' be probably too difficult. He was involved in some rather shady businesses and just needs to anger some powerful enough person.

This might also apply.

Aley · Mar 16, 2014

What does Putin or Putin? The problem is that the Russian power two-consuming elite. In accordance with the theory - stagnation.

Aley · Mar 16, 2014

MarshalBraginsky said:
Well there's that timeline about Zhirinovsky taking over Russia, though the world of Zhirinovsky's Russian Empire is way more craptastic than OTL.

It's unreal.

cubefreak123 · Mar 16, 2014

Pangur said:
If you are hoping for a continuation of the Boris Yeltsin years then I suspect that you have zero chance. The Russians had had there fill of corruption and being the laughing stock of Europe.

I picked 2000 since Yeltsin was already out by then. I'm more interested in the post-Yeltsin years when the Russians are looking for a change but the main front runner no longer exists.

MarshalBraginsky said:
How about the Union State actually becomes real, with Lukashenko becoming the first President?

Mind elaborating on this? I don't know much about it.

MarshalBraginsky · Mar 16, 2014

cubefreak123 said:
I picked 2000 since Yeltsin was already out by then. I'm more interested in the post-Yeltsin years when the Russians are looking for a change but the main front runner no longer exists.

Mind elaborating on this? I don't know much about it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State

This is the information on the Union State of Belarus and Russia.

Kome · Mar 16, 2014

Pericles said:
I think maybe Zyuganov would get elected, but I am not knowledgeable about this subject.

Its hard to see how anyone else could get elected except Zyuganov, going by the OP statement. The presidential election was in March, and if Putin resigns in Feburary they would only have two months to campaign making it almost impossible for the noncommunist opposition (proto-United Russia) to put up a new candidate and get name recognition in time for the election.

EternalCynic · Mar 16, 2014

What about Primakov, who was considered the frontrunner and was populr enough until Putin orchestrated his takeover?

Kome · Mar 16, 2014

EternalCynic said:
What about Primakov, who was considered the frontrunner and was populr enough until Putin orchestrated his takeover?

The question is whether proto-United Russia would put up their own candidate as well in response (which would split the non communist vote) or whether proto-UR would accept Primakov as their candidate.

Even if he doesnt win, I imagine Primakov's party would be willing to coalition with the communists in the Duma tho.

Dan1988 · Mar 16, 2014

For proto-ER - well, Primakov was the candidate for the Fatherland party, which was one of the two founding parties of Yedinaya Rossiya (the other being the Unity party). The power behind the throne in that case would be the then-mayor of Moscow, Yuri Luzhkov. What is more, you also have to get rid of Boris Berezovsky because his media outlets engaged in outright negative campaigning against Primakov which forced people to gravitate towards Putin. If Berezovsky does not gain as much power as he did, like the other oligarchs and members of "the family", that clears the way for Primakov.

Kome · Mar 16, 2014

Dan1988 said:
For proto-ER - well, Primakov was the candidate for the Fatherland party, which was one of the two founding parties of Yedinaya Rossiya (the other being the Unity party). The power behind the throne in that case would be the then-mayor of Moscow, Yuri Luzhkov. What is more, you also have to get rid of Boris Berezovsky because his media outlets engaged in outright negative campaigning against Primakov which forced people to gravitate towards Putin. If Berezovsky does not gain as much power as he did, like the other oligarchs and members of "the family", that clears the way for Primakov.

I kept calling them Proto-UR because i forgot the name was Unity.

While Fatherland ended up supporting Putin and founding United Russia with Unity after the election, my question was wondering whether it would happen the other way around as well. Whether Unity would be willing to support Primakov as well, or whether they would panic and put up their own candidate for the Unity bloc.

Dan1988 · Mar 16, 2014

They'd probably panic and put up one of their own candidates. Remember, the sole reason for the Unity party was precisely to counter the popular of Primakov and the Fatherland party, as well as having Unity secure Yeltsin's legacy which Russia's Choice and Our Home is Russia did not (due to the popularity of both Primakov on one hand and Züganov and the CPRF on another. However, if Berezovsky also goes, then that gives Primakov a breath of fresh air because ORT would thus not positively portray the war in Chechnya. The critical look would also penetrate through most Russian TV channels as well, not to mention getting a second look into the suspicious failed Ryazan apartment bombing (seriously - was it an exercise or not?), which - considering the independent media pointed the finger at the FSB for setting up a fake pretext for the second Chechnya conflict - would hurt Yeltsin considerably, not to mention harming Putin's then-small legacy.

Ithron · Mar 16, 2014

Kome said:
Funnily, there were at least two assassination attempts on Putin in 2000 after being elected, as far as accidents go.

I somehow doubt that. The dictators so often claim that they are being hunted (thus using the Jesus analogy who also was "a great but hunted man") that it stopped being funny long time ago.. In 2000 nobody (except his KGB friends and heavy-weight supporters) new how Putin will turn out.. so what would be the motivation for assassinations?

alpha · Mar 16, 2014

How would a communist president in Russia look like ?

Ithron · Mar 16, 2014

Probably quite similar to Lukashenko, maybe less crazy stuff (not saying Lukashenko is totally insane, not, but he is not a normal, healthy and fully accountable either). So semi-controlled economy, some political freedoms, overall economic and social freedom to all who do not go into politics and lots of populism.

SlideAway · Mar 16, 2014

I was actually curious about this TL too. Not so much in a Putin is assassinated TL, but either Yeltsin dies in 1999 or decides not to sack Primakov.

In that case, Primakov or Luzhkov would likely be president. Luzhkov would be an even more corrupt, clownish RW'er. Primakov would be ... ? Maybe a little bit more of an old regime apparatchik?

I don't think either would be *good*, but they both might wind up being less powerful than Putin. Putin had several advantages consolidating control -- he came from the security services and was thereby close to the siloviki who were gradually asserting control of the state during the later Yeltsin years. And although it's quite easy to forget this, Putin initially had quite a bit of support from Russian liberals, largely because they saw him as (a) preferable to the ex-Communists or the far-rightists and (b) because he had expressed sympathy for economic reforms. (It actually cut both ways -- Putin even endorsed Yabloko/Union of Right Forces in the '99 parliamentary elections.) Putin was also much younger, was sympatico with leading oligarchs, and was enormously popular following his handling of the Chechan war.

So I wonder if a Primakov presidency may have in the long run been better. Russia was likely to recover economically regardless, given the runup in oil and gas prices and the general stabilization following the '98 Financial Crisis. And a centre that was less fully in control, openly opposed by leading oligarchs, the security state, and liberals, and led by a much older figure, might have allowed a non-communist/non-far right opposition to consolidate, as well as preventing the kind of lifelong dictatorship Putin's presidency has morphed into.

End result could be a somewhat more chaotic Russia, which will probably still be a pretty corrupt mess in several respects. But living standards may not be that much different from present and it may end up substantially more pluralistic.

But maybe I'm just being overly optimistic.