Modernized army means a unified command. If this is the Prussian model there would be a general staff, composed of the most intelligent people you can find to constantly revise doctrine and modernize equipment and training. They will butt heads with conservative feudal civilian institutions. It’s inherently dangerous that the only modern institution in the country also has all the guns. The army will be more loyal to it’s commanders than the dynasty. At some point their leadership will launch a coup. This is why the Qing rulers kept their armies and fleets fragmented. They were independent regional forces that competed with each other, and the imperial government became indispensable to mediate disputes. It also meant in wartime they didn’t coordinate with each other when they needed to.
A Prosperous Qing Dynasty: 1875 - 1900
- Thread starter PrussianQing2015
- Start date
To get the wide spread reforms that the OP wants, to setup for a stronger China down the road, i would suggest an earlier kick off of the Warlord Era, right after a stalemate/defeat in the First Sino-Japansee War. Better showing by Qing troops on land and sea (due to Prussian training), leading to little to no crippling indemnities but still the loss of Korea overlordship and Formosa, thus letting Imperial Japan stay on their crash course with Russia.
Except this time, the central government under Gong/Guangwu will be holding better cards from a more modernized prussian trained and LOYAL military (who overall fought well and didnt break and run like bitches like OTL), and can smash rebellious local warlords (who arent as well equipped as they would be 20 years down the line) and reactionary nobles into dust, thus clearing the way for needed future reforms. I'd have it where Prince Regents appeal to the people and get popular will on their side, offering a Constitutional Monarchy route of shared power. So it'll be a showdown with the trained Imperial Army + as much popular support as the Regent can muster up vs feudal reactionary Manchu/local nobles and angry not that well equipped warlords who want to do their own thing. Just have Li Hongzhang and a few other top dawgs decide to throw in with the Prince Regent (seeing the effectiveness of the Prussian trained troops being a key factor of their choice) and thus the biggest potential warlord is now fighting for the Regent, thereby bolstering their cause greatly, thus leading to a much shorter and less destructive Alt Chinese Civil War.
Have this Alt Chinese Civil War coincide with Russia and Japan fighting it out, as both sides believe now is their best chance to get more clay at China's expense as China cant do a thing to either of them during that time. Japan eventually wears Russia down as OTL, maybe doing a bit worse cuz they didnt get the war reparations from China like OTL. China spends this time swatting reactionary rebels while the people either support the regents reforms (Land reform perhaps?) or stay neutral and wait for the dust settle. In a stroke of luck (maybe ASB can toss out if so), USA decides to support the Qing by giving em investment support (USA wants to open up the Chinese market) and keeping the UK from supporting the rebels. UK follows suit in investing in China, hoping to keep it on friendly terms as a counterbalance to Russia (The Great Game in Central Asia) and Japan. The Alt Chinese Civil War is brutal but much shorter with around say 10-30mil casualties on all sides.
China comes out of the Alt Civil War more centralized, unified, and cohesive than its OTL self, while able to carry out some reforms now that the back of the reactionary nobility is broken. Tsarist Russia is exhausted as OTL and goes through their troubles. Imperial Japan has "won" but is way more exhausted than OTL due to lack of 1st SJW war reparations and a longer Russo Jap War. Japanese economy is likely in freefall and they cant try to punk China for war blood money due to their own exhaustion and the US/UK telling em to chill the fuck out.
During the leadup to the Great War, China plays on all sides. Promising to open a 2nd front against Russia and against Entente asian colonial possessions to keep German technical aid flowing in. To promising to NOT open a 2nd front against Russia and the Entente as long as UK/USA keep investing in China and helping it modernize.
I think the above is a good canvass to work with for what the OP wants. China is in supremely great position to take advantage of the post WWI world order, along with a economically crippled Japan limping along with delusions of granduer.
Except this time, the central government under Gong/Guangwu will be holding better cards from a more modernized prussian trained and LOYAL military (who overall fought well and didnt break and run like bitches like OTL), and can smash rebellious local warlords (who arent as well equipped as they would be 20 years down the line) and reactionary nobles into dust, thus clearing the way for needed future reforms. I'd have it where Prince Regents appeal to the people and get popular will on their side, offering a Constitutional Monarchy route of shared power. So it'll be a showdown with the trained Imperial Army + as much popular support as the Regent can muster up vs feudal reactionary Manchu/local nobles and angry not that well equipped warlords who want to do their own thing. Just have Li Hongzhang and a few other top dawgs decide to throw in with the Prince Regent (seeing the effectiveness of the Prussian trained troops being a key factor of their choice) and thus the biggest potential warlord is now fighting for the Regent, thereby bolstering their cause greatly, thus leading to a much shorter and less destructive Alt Chinese Civil War.
Have this Alt Chinese Civil War coincide with Russia and Japan fighting it out, as both sides believe now is their best chance to get more clay at China's expense as China cant do a thing to either of them during that time. Japan eventually wears Russia down as OTL, maybe doing a bit worse cuz they didnt get the war reparations from China like OTL. China spends this time swatting reactionary rebels while the people either support the regents reforms (Land reform perhaps?) or stay neutral and wait for the dust settle. In a stroke of luck (maybe ASB can toss out if so), USA decides to support the Qing by giving em investment support (USA wants to open up the Chinese market) and keeping the UK from supporting the rebels. UK follows suit in investing in China, hoping to keep it on friendly terms as a counterbalance to Russia (The Great Game in Central Asia) and Japan. The Alt Chinese Civil War is brutal but much shorter with around say 10-30mil casualties on all sides.
China comes out of the Alt Civil War more centralized, unified, and cohesive than its OTL self, while able to carry out some reforms now that the back of the reactionary nobility is broken. Tsarist Russia is exhausted as OTL and goes through their troubles. Imperial Japan has "won" but is way more exhausted than OTL due to lack of 1st SJW war reparations and a longer Russo Jap War. Japanese economy is likely in freefall and they cant try to punk China for war blood money due to their own exhaustion and the US/UK telling em to chill the fuck out.
During the leadup to the Great War, China plays on all sides. Promising to open a 2nd front against Russia and against Entente asian colonial possessions to keep German technical aid flowing in. To promising to NOT open a 2nd front against Russia and the Entente as long as UK/USA keep investing in China and helping it modernize.
I think the above is a good canvass to work with for what the OP wants. China is in supremely great position to take advantage of the post WWI world order, along with a economically crippled Japan limping along with delusions of granduer.
I like where you are going with this. So basically, China still loses the Sino-Japanese War, but is able to successfully recover due to it's modernized central armies fighting domestic threats that cling to outdated values and beliefs. Japan on the other hand is more exhausted and isn't doing too well despite it's victory in that and the Russo-Japanese War. I just hope it doesn't end badly in a way that their monarchy collapses.
Speaking of which, I'm now wondering at what point would Guangxu br prompted to reform China into a constitutional monarchy. With what you've described, the Qing government would be more open minded by then.
how do you get the stuff at the bottom of your stuff? the link to the thread?
I'm definately planning on doing some revisions in order to make it more believable. Once there's a complete scinario that goes in the 1900,s I will put it in the completed scinarios section. My only obstacle is basically trying to figure out how the Sino-Japanese War would end with a more modernized and centralized Qing military being involved. Plus, I'm want to use this alternate timeline as a basis for a short story I want to write.
There's a edit signature options in your profile, there you can manually write whatever you want, links included.
thats quite the timeline schedule. a modernized Qing military BEFORE 1890? good luck with that bro
It helps that I have Dowager Empress Cixi die in 1875 and have Empress Dowager Ci'an appoint Prince Gong as Prince Regent to make the scenario possible. After all, he was an advocate for modernization. Plus I see him bringing power back to the central government, bringing an end to provincial autonomy. Of course, there could be backlash against the decision in the form of fights between soldiers loyal to the Imperial Court and soldiers loyal to whatever corrupt official/general they follow.
you also need to somehow shift the Qings priorities from maintaining the Status quo over the Han majority and inside troubles to realizing the threat of the "Barbarians" with guns and ships that come knocking.
I would suggest a much more humiliating First Sino-Japanese War, or at least have a Sino-Russian War that speeds things along. While the Qing would be able to Keep Formosa after the war, Korea would be taken by Japan. This would be seen as humiliating, but it would also show that a modern army could beat Japan, causing more will to invest and more people willing to support it. I would suggest something like the Sino-French War, where although the Chinese won many battles on land, the politics and outside factors forced China to sue for peace. the main thing revolves around Japan. Japan was one of the only nations that China saw as a credible threat at the time. by making Japan and/or Russia slightly more hostile, this sets the stage for Chinese Military Modernization, and even an alternate Russo-Japanese War.
Regarding Russia, perhaps we can have something occur during the Treaty of Livadia in 1879 or the Treaty of St. Petersburg in 1881 that could result in a Sino-Russian War. Also, I'm definitely in favor of the Qing keeping Formosa while losing Korea. It sort of puts them in a you win some, you loose some situation. Plus, Guangxu would be somewhat of a graceful loser to the point where, much like in the original timeline, he would take an interest in Japan's and Europe's constitutional monarchies and decide to further reform the empire politically.
While I think about it, I imagine there would be a future conflict where the Qing try to help reinstate the Korean monarchy.
Manchuria and Chinese border provinces on the border with central asia seems like an easy enough place to start for Sino-Russian/Russo-Chinese relations. but also remember that to China, Korea was like a little brother to them. being a protectorate for over a century, losing Korea, while not a big deal in many ways, would have HUGE effects on how China views japan and everything. Remember that the only reason China was "meh" about the French getting Vietnam was because of the fear of Japan and them and the Russians getting involved. but yea. Liberalizing China would seem good, but it still needs to have a heavy hand. too many people in China for a democracy to function correctly.
Another thing that could happen would be the Qing government recognizing the efforts of Liu Jintang during the Qing reconquest of Xinjiang as his army used modern German artillery. This could lead the way to the Qing Dynasty purchasing more German weapons and maybe more deals with Germany in general.
I was just also doing some research on Cixi and learned that she was afraid that people who learned abroad would pose a new threat to her power. Since I have her dead in this alternate timeline and Prince Gong rule as Prince Regent, the Qing government would still be sending children abroad beyond 1881.
not a bad idea. Germany and China are practically perfect allies. unfortunately, that might push the Japanese further into the arms of the British, and the big thing is WW1. How does China react? and big thing is do they get involved? WW1 otl had huge effects on china, and it might be a way for them to get all their land back.
That would make sense considering the Anglo-Japanese Alliance in 1902. Also, if the Qing wanted to, I could see them allying themselves with Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy, turning the Triple Alliance into the Quadruple Alliance. Though what would would prompt them to do so is beyond me. Perhaps an invite from Germany.
The Qing could definitely join the Central Powers if WW1 were to still happen. Heck, if they wanted to, they could expand their boarders to the point where almost the entire Asian side of Russia as well as all of Indochina, the Philippines, and Korea would fall under their jurisdiction. Of course, I don't know what they would do with Japan on that matter. Either let it be or occupy it.
if China joins the central powers, China gets fucked long run. unless China coordinates an offensive into Russia with Germany, Germany loses. if they DO coordinate, we got ourselves a Kaiserreich scenario on our hands.