A Prosperous post-Morgenthau Germany

[NapoleonXIV]

Could Germany have actually benefited from having the Morgenthau plan imposed at the end of WWII? The reason I ask is a comparison to Ireland, or on a smaller scale, to many areas of former industrial development in the US.

Ireland today is one of the richest countries in Europe. A major factor in this is the somewhat pleasant and almost pristine pre-industrial environment, preserved in this way largely (though not entirely) through the anti-Irish British policies of the 19th and even early 20th centuries. Some further proof of this is seen in the fact that Northern Ireland, where the policies were not so strict, has lagged Eire economically and still does, being more heavily industrialised and thus 'spoiled' for the light communications and computer industries which dominate the economy now.

If Germany had been forcibly deindustrialised, and kept in this state until 1965, might it not be like Ireland today, a country where happy burghers in lederhosen make servers, routers and do computer services all day and then repair to the beer garden for sausages, seemingly having the best of both worlds and leaving steelmaking and concrete manufactories to the British and the Americans.

 

[Max Sinister]

Maybe we can see something similar in East Germany in some decades. The old factories have been closed, many young people have left, the cities are actually shrinking... in a few decades this will be the place in Europe where you can go to if your life elsewhere is too stressful. OK, so it's a bit different.

 

[Straha]

interesting idea with an idyllic postwar germany.

 

[Steffen]

Idyllic is the wrong word.

The idea is forcibly deindustrialise an industrial country, which isn´t able to support itself otherwise. Apart from the question you shoot the rest of Europe massively in the foot and literally guarantee a a communist take-over, you downscale the expected standard of living massively under the pre-war conditions.

The comparison with Ireland falls flat, Ireland never was industrialised before and just started to become wealthy when the western world entered the for a distinct reason named post-industrial period: the question of wealth generation is uncoupled from industrial output.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Morganthau was told several million Germans (I don't know the exact figures) would starve to death if Germany was deindustrialized and he did not care.

Interesting idea though.

 

[Kabraloth]

It would be actually several Germanies, as you could kiss reunification goodbye.

Henry L. Stimson, then US warminister, said that it would lead to the death of 30 million Germans. Don't know what to think of the number, though.

It is also pretty difficult to see how Germany would become prosperous, if reduced to an agrarian country, and in the same time getting its argrarian parts removed. It would be a European third-world country, hell-bent on revenge.I can't imagine how it could be idyllic, sorry.

 

[Glen]

Idyllic is the wrong word.

The idea is forcibly deindustrialise an industrial country, which isn´t able to support itself otherwise. Apart from the question you shoot the rest of Europe massively in the foot and literally guarantee a a communist take-over, you downscale the expected standard of living massively under the pre-war conditions.

The comparison with Ireland falls flat, Ireland never was industrialised before and just started to become wealthy when the western world entered the for a distinct reason named post-industrial period: the question of wealth generation is uncoupled from industrial output.

I tend to agree. And for many decades all was not well with the Irish economy.

The big thing that benefitted the Irish, IMO, was their commitment to education. It pre-adapted them to the information age economy.

 

[Agentdark]

Some sort of German North Korea

 

[Kabraloth]

Some sort of German North Korea

I think three. Don't forget that in this case Austria is counted as Germany, too.

 

[Agentdark]

That is acually even more disturbing

 

[King Thomas]

Deindustralizing a country would be like tearing a human's skin and maybe pulling out internal organs-great pain and resentment if not "death" for the country.

 

[Agentdark]

I honestly think that a post Morgenthau germany would have an extreme, never ending hatred for the west.

Also, how hard would it have been for Germany to make new industry?

 

[birdy]

think it would have caused massive German immigration, considering how many people with factory skills etc who wouldnt have jobs- can they all farm?, could agriculture support Germany.

 

[oberdada]

think it would have caused massive German immigration, considering how many people with factory skills etc who wouldnt have jobs- can they all farm?, could agriculture support Germany.

And where would the immigrants go?

1. USA and western Europe, if it is possible
2. LAtin America
3. South Africa, Namibia and Rhodesia
4. Ausralia and New Zealand if they can afford it.
5. the Soviet Union, if it is smart enough to offer good deals to skilled workers.

 

[birdy]

And where would the immigrants go?

1. USA and western Europe, if it is possible
2. LAtin America
3. South Africa, Namibia and Rhodesia
4. Ausralia and New Zealand if they can afford it.
5. the Soviet Union, if it is smart enough to offer good deals to skilled workers.

Yes exactly!

USA took a large number of german refugees especially from eastern europe, i could see a number being allowed in, Canada and Australia were looking for skilled refugees incl Germans.

South Africa might welcome an increase in white population related to Boers.

South America also took some DP's OTL and Brazil and Argentina were considered fairly rich and both had large German communties.

France wanted a population increase postwar and wanted northern europeans, howver results were not nearly as good as they hoped.

UK- needs to be rebuilt, has labour shortage- there were initial plans OTL to bring in German workers to help rebuild country.

Soviet Union- i dunno maybe?

 

[Max Sinister]

Some where in the web I found a short German AH (not that well thought out) where millions of Germans go to South America, until they're the majority there, overthrow the old governments and replace them by a nazi regime. Germania in South America.

 

[sikitu]

Some where in the web I found a short German AH (not that well thought out) where millions of Germans go to South America, until they're the majority there, overthrow the old governments and replace them by a nazi regime. Germania in South America.

Is that the novel by Thomas Ziegler, "Stimmen der Nacht"?

 

[NapoleonXIV]

What if the plan is benign? Starvation is not permitted and agriculture, handicrafts and tourism is subsidized, until 1960, when any kind of industry is permitted.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Also, how hard would it have been for Germany to make new industry?

This depends on how extreme the Allies (Western and Soviet) are willing to go to enforce.

If they simply remove all the heavy industry and let the Germans start from scratch, not too terribly long. The amount of $$ invested though would probably keep them from doing much else.

If they're willing to launch military incursions to prevent re-industrialization (and do really icky things like execute hostages for hiding machine tools or something), it could take awhile.

 

[MerryPrankster]

What if the plan is benign? Starvation is not permitted and agriculture, handicrafts and tourism is subsidized, until 1960, when any kind of industry is permitted.

Surely some fiscal conservatives in the West would start complaining abouts the costs of such a thing. The program would fulfill its purpose and lack human suffering--however, it would only last as long as the West is willing to pay for it.