A 'proper' Anglo-Russian War

[RCTFI]

Well, I've been thinking. While Britain had its Raj and Imperial Russia was mucking about in Central Asia, there was a sense, from some of the books I've been reading nearly continuously, that sooner or later Russia and Britain would go to war over territorial conflicts in Central Asia or some other cause. Regardless, it was assumed that there would be fighting in Central Asia, and that Russia would threaten India.

Well, this never happened. In spite of all of the war scares, Britain and Russia never had a really climactic show down as was expected. Sure, there was the Crimean War, but that doesn't really count. So, my thought is, imagine if during the Russo-Japanese War, the Dogger Bank Incident results in war between Britain and Russia. Now, consider this. At the time, Russia was allied with France. One might imagine the possibility - indeed, one must imagine the possibility, that this results in France becoming involved in the fighting. The results... well, I had the idea that it could be Imperial Russia and France against Britain and Japan, with perhaps the Ottoman Empire jumping on the Russians with British encouragement when they begin to falter, as they inevitably will. This could be a sort of earlier World War One, perhaps...

The thing is, it's not so plausible for France to leap to the aid of doomed Russia against Britain. So I had the idea that Germany, which at that time had been playing for Russia's friendship might end up siding with Russia. So that it would be Britain, France (France was interested in seeing Germany humbled above all else, after all), Japan and perhaps the Ottoman Empire against Germany and Russia.

Any permutation of either of those two ideas might've worked out in the end - I can't say that either would have been inevitable. I can only ask what are your thoughts on this...

So, what are they?

 

[David S Poepoe]

From recent readings I'm getting the opinion that after 1900 there was a decreasing likelihood of an Anglo-French war. The alliances are starting to fall into place and they are currently acting more as brakes stopping any continental war.

The Dogger Bank Incident most likely won't trigger an Anglo-Russian War since France will act as mediator or work like hell to pacify the British and get the Russians to apologize. What works in a board game scenario does bear fruit when looked at in depth.

 

[Sol Invictus]

Well, I've been thinking. While Britain had its Raj and Imperial Russia was mucking about in Central Asia, there was a sense, from some of the books I've been reading nearly continuously, that sooner or later Russia and Britain would go to war over territorial conflicts in Central Asia or some other cause. Regardless, it was assumed that there would be fighting in Central Asia, and that Russia would threaten India.

The British were rather paranoid about Russian intentions in central asia, but this paranoia was (at least from what I've been led to believe) a little irrational. It was thought that Russia might invade afghanistan and then set its sights on India. In truth however the campaign in Afghanistan would have been a logistical nightmare, to the extent that some now argue it would have been impossible.

The thing is, it's not so plausible for France to leap to the aid of doomed Russia against Britain.

I am not sure, I think France desperate to keep on the good side of both and to use them as allies against a future war with Germany might remain neutral and just view the war as a private matter between friends.

So I had the idea that Germany, which at that time had been playing for Russia's friendship might end up siding with Russia.

Against Britain? A lot of German foreign and military policy in the ten/twenty years before WW1 was based upon avoiding conflict with Britain. It failed because they had a fundemental lack of understanding when it came to good diplomacy and because ultimately were too ambitious that war with the worlds main power probably could not have been avoided. But it seems dubious to me that they would side against Britain over some territorial dispute in central asia.

 

[Svartekaptenen]

Was not the Entente Cordiale in place 1905? If so the whole question is moot.

 

[RCTFI]

From recent readings I'm getting the opinion that after 1900 there was a decreasing likelihood of an Anglo-French war. The alliances are starting to fall into place and they are currently acting more as brakes stopping any continental war.

The Dogger Bank Incident most likely won't trigger an Anglo-Russian War since France will act as mediator or work like hell to pacify the British and get the Russians to apologize. What works in a board game scenario does bear fruit when looked at in depth.

I know it's not so plausible, but... well, I couldn't think of anything more plausible. I was really thinking it would be cool to see the Cossacks and the Sepoys clash as was so often predicted.

The British were rather paranoid about Russian intentions in central asia, but this paranoia was (at least from what I've been led to believe) a little irrational. It was thought that Russia might invade afghanistan and then set its sights on India. In truth however the campaign in Afghanistan would have been a logistical nightmare, to the extent that some now argue it would have been impossible.



I am not sure, I think France desperate to keep on the good side of both and to use them as allies against a future war with Germany might remain neutral and just view the war as a private matter between friends.



Against Britain? A lot of German foreign and military policy in the ten/twenty years before WW1 was based upon avoiding conflict with Britain. It failed because they had a fundemental lack of understanding when it came to good diplomacy and because ultimately were too ambitious that war with the worlds main power probably could not have been avoided. But it seems dubious to me that they would side against Britain over some territorial dispute in central asia.

Ach yeah, the Germans would have most likely remained gleefully neutral in such an event... or perhaps one could imagine Germany and Britain coming closer together.

Well, yeah, war is unlikely, but as was said before, I can't think of anything better.

Hm, a thought - perhaps if the Crimean War went better for Russia, with a swift and crushing victory in the Crimea, they might've moved to threaten India in order to pressure Britain into letting them do as they pleased with the Ottomans? Again, it's just a thought. There would be basically no chance of their actually invading India, but there might be a chance that there'd be some skirmishing.

Although that leaves the issue of what PoD would result in a crushing victory inthe Crimea... that would be hard to do!

Well, thoughts?

 

[mrmandias]

Germany would like to embroil Russia with Britain

I was thinking this morning that Germany would probably benefit if Russia had taken Constantinople. It would have diverted even more of Russia's military expenditures to naval forces and would have made embroiling Russia with GB more likely.

If GB started to see Russia as more of menace, because of its Mediterranean presence, you might get a general Russian/English war that would spill out into Central Asia.

 

[Lord Insane]

Was not the Entente Cordiale in place 1905? If so the whole question is moot.

If I remember correctly, the Anglo-French Entente and the Franco-Russian Alliance was in place, but the Anglo-Russian Entente was not yet in place. Meaning that the French have very good reasons, and a fairly good position, to mediate between Russia and Britain, as was mentioned above.

 

[Paladin]

The best chance for an Anglo-Russian war would be the Panjdeh incident in 1885-a Russian land grab for an insignificant oasis on the Afghan border nearly resulted in war. This is well before the Entente Cordiale, or even the Franco-Russian alliance. In fact, the main pact still active is the League of the Three Emperors, though only barely. All kinds of crazy stuff could happen.

 

[David S Poepoe]

Hm, a thought - perhaps if the Crimean War went better for Russia, with a swift and crushing victory in the Crimea, they might've moved to threaten India in order to pressure Britain into letting them do as they pleased with the Ottomans? Again, it's just a thought. There would be basically no chance of their actually invading India, but there might be a chance that there'd be some skirmishing.

Although that leaves the issue of what PoD would result in a crushing victory inthe Crimea... that would be hard to do!

Well, thoughts?

As pointed out earlier any Russian advance overland thru Central Asia is going to be a logistical nightmare with soldiers and horses dying. Any survivors will discover the same thing about Afghanistan that the British discovered - and their ancestors also found out - the Afghans are a very unpleasant and tough people to defeat.

 

[67th Tigers]

http://www.da.mod.uk/podcasts/Neilson2_MP3_32k.mp3/

- Russia in British Strategic Foreign Policy 1860-1941

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

I think your best bets are Paladin's war scare over Afghanistan (there were actually more than one with potential), and the equally serious war scare in 1878.

Ironically, if the Russians had done better against the Ottomans, a war with Britain would have been more likely. As it was, they were too weak to contemplate a war with anyone and had to back down at the Berlin Conference.

If you want India involved, I would pick the Afghan thing.

The Ottomans will not for any reason get involved in this sort of thing, BTW, unless it's 1878.

 

[RCTFI]

Hm, interesting thoughts all around. The 1878 scare is looking increasingly promising - I'll have to read up on it properly before I can really make any noise about that, though. Anyone care to recomend a good book?

 

[rcmcciii]

Also read KIM by Rudyard Kipling. The Great Game was against Russian agents trying to rouse Afgan Tribes and Indian states against the Raj. This was set in 1878 or thereabouts.

 

[David S Poepoe]

Hm, interesting thoughts all around. The 1878 scare is looking increasingly promising - I'll have to read up on it properly before I can really make any noise about that, though. Anyone care to recomend a good book?

The Great Game: The Struggle for Empire in Central Asia by Peter Hopkirk. Probably the best I've read. Fantastic author and I read alot of his work.

Tournament of Shadows: The Great Game and the Race for Empire in Central Asia by Karl Meyer and Shareen Brysac. An excellent book also.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

The Great Game: The Struggle for Empire in Central Asia by Peter Hopkirk. Probably the best I've read. Fantastic author and I read alot of his work.

Tournament of Shadows: The Great Game and the Race for Empire in Central Asia by Karl Meyer and Shareen Brysac. An excellent book also.

Hopkirk is great as a writer, but a bit feeble as a historian... I've read all his stuff anyway, but it's not a very rounded view.

 

[RCTFI]

Hm, thanks for your suggestions. I'll look into them. Christmas is coming around, so I'll probably end up with a bit of money in book store gift certificates to spend on the books you've suggested.

 

[pacifichistorian]

The best chance for an Anglo-Russian war would be the Panjdeh incident in 1885-a Russian land grab for an insignificant oasis on the Afghan border nearly resulted in war. This is well before the Entente Cordiale, or even the Franco-Russian alliance. In fact, the main pact still active is the League of the Three Emperors, though only barely. All kinds of crazy stuff could happen.

That also predates the "freezing" of relations between Britain & Germany, no? Whatsay an Anglo-German alliance against a Franco-Russian one?

 

[Tyr]

The British were rather paranoid about Russian intentions in central asia, but this paranoia was (at least from what I've been led to believe) a little irrational. It was thought that Russia might invade afghanistan and then set its sights on India. In truth however the campaign in Afghanistan would have been a logistical nightmare, to the extent that some now argue it would have been impossible.


.

Exactly.
Even sending a army down into Kazakhstan would have been enourmously difficult logistically.
As I've said elsewhere, the Russians were the Islamic extremists of their day.

 

[RCTFI]

Hm, I think I've just about given up hope in this possibility. The only real concept I've come up with that isn't totally impossible is terribly implausible. I've had the thought, you see, that perhaps France might get sucked into the Russo-Japanese War. Combine that with French-bolstered Russians doing better against the Japanese, and thereby threatening to defeat the Japanese, an outcome that the British would hardly like, leading to the British helping out the Japanese, leading to a war between the Franco-Russian and Anglo-Japanese alliances, with Germany as the laughing third. In such a situation, there would likely be nothing beyond small-scale skirmishing in Central Asia, but we would get to see the RN and IJN smash the French fleet and the Russian Navy.

Hm, to see once more the RN slaughter the French, it has its appeal... tradition, and all that. Of course, regardless of the outcome, Germany will have had its position strengthened. While the Franco-Russian alliance might well have been strengthened, Britain would be far less likely to get involved helping out the French. Of course, for all that its position might have been strengthened, it might come out that it was strengthened unnecessarily - Russia might have had a successful 1905 Revolution, and who knows where that would've led - it probably wouldn't have led into a WWI starting in 1914, that's a near certainty. Indeed, there seems a good chance that there would be no WWI, or at least no war anything like what we think of as WWI. The super-sized Russo-Japanese War might shape up to something like a world war, though. Just one either without or with late (joining late on the side of whoever looks to be winning in order to grab some colonies) German involvment.

... okay, I admit it's terribly unlikely, but the idea seems somewhat less impossible than all the alternatives that would involve a Russian invasion of India, you have to give it that. Perhaps Indian troops can fight Cossacks during operations in support of the Japanese in Manchuria, eh?