A more "organic" breakup of Austria-Hungary?

[Zachanassian]

Although the successor states to Austria-Hungary were mostly based on nationality and language, you can still somewhat tell that the borders were drawn by foreign powers via treaty; for example, Pressburg in 1918 had a German plurality with significant but small Slovak minority, but it ended up in Czechoslovakia (an entity else that probably would not have come about normally).

For the sake of argument, lets just say we are dealing with a world where the Central Powers win WWI, but just barely. Austria-Hungary is not broken up by the Allies, but rather just collapses under its own weight. In such a situation would A-H just break into its component parts of Trans- and Cisleithania? Or would other pieces—Slavonia, Bohemia, Galicia, Bosnia—break off into their own states (or join up with other countries)? What happens to the many German-majority areas throughout Hungary, Bohemia, and Transylvania in such a situation?

 

[Snaut]

Although the successor states to Austria-Hungary were mostly based on nationality and language, you can still somewhat tell that the borders were drawn by foreign powers via treaty; for example, Pressburg in 1918 had a German plurality with significant but small Slovak minority, but it ended up in Czechoslovakia (an entity else that probably would not have come about normally).

For the sake of argument, lets just say we are dealing with a world where the Central Powers win WWI, but just barely. Austria-Hungary is not broken up by the Allies, but rather just collapses under its own weight. In such a situation would A-H just break into its component parts of Trans- and Cisleithania? Or would other pieces—Slavonia, Bohemia, Galicia, Bosnia—break off into their own states (or join up with other countries)? What happens to the many German-majority areas throughout Hungary, Bohemia, and Transylvania in such a situation?

The idea behind Czechoslovakia had gained popularity among both Czechs and Slovaks. Czechoslovakia was much less artificial then you seem to think.

I don't think a central powers victory would make the breakup any more "organic" - instead, it would be greatly skewed in the favour of Germany and any other nationalities the Germans choose to support over the others. Probable results include a Greater Hungary, Germany annexing Austria (including with South Tyrol and the Slovene and Italian areas on the Adriatic coast), Bohemia completely annexed by Germany or left as a small rump state with borders falling far short of the ethnographic limits of the Czech lands or a massively inflated West Ukraine.

 

[LordKalvert]

German intervention does become an almost certainty in this situation. However, the Germans might not mind seeing Austria totally disintegrate into a bunch of smaller states that she can dominate completely

A Polish state would be seen as a threat to Germany so I doubt if they would be incline to see a very strong Polish entity- perhaps encouraging Ukrainian movements in Galicia.

Czechoslovakia is more likely to be broken into Czech and Slovak lands, Romania would probably be able to obtain Translyvania, and the Croats, Slovenes and Serbs would be separate states

The odd enclaves will always present a problem in the break up. If its relatively peaceful, the minorities might stay but most likely there would be more migration of the various ethnic groups

 

[Zachanassian]

The idea behind Czechoslovakia had gained popularity among both Czechs and Slovaks. Czechoslovakia was much less artificial then you seem to think.

I don't know much about pre-WWII Czechoslovak history, so I'll defer to somebody who does know, but I was under the impression that Czechs and Slovaks never really got along within Czechoslovakia (though that was probably more a result of the difference between the Austrian policy towards the Czechs and the Hungarian policy towards the Slovaks than any sort inability of the Czechs and Slovaks to get along). Still, in the event of a Germany victory in WWI I agree with you that the Germans would not want such a large state in Central Europe and probably would promote the idea of Czech and Slovak nationalism (or just annex Bohemia and give Slovakia to Hungary).

I don't think a central powers victory would make the breakup any more "organic" - instead, it would be greatly skewed in the favour of Germany and any other nationalities the Germans choose to support over the others.

That is an issue. A-H's fate is so tied up with its neighbours that it is almost impossible to have a breakup that would accurately reflect its resident nationalities. It all depends on what position Germany is in—a stronger post-war Germany means a greater chance of a situation favouring the ethnic Germans.

Two things, though: depending on the nature of the CP victory, a weaker Germany may not want to deal with integrating a bunch of Czechs, Slovaks, and Italians into their empire. Though it's less of a problem than it would have been 40 years previously, annexing Austria also has the effect of throwing off the religious balance of Germany by adding a lot more Catholics.

A Polish state would be seen as a threat to Germany so I doubt if they would be incline to see a very strong Polish entity- perhaps encouraging Ukrainian movements in Galicia.

The Central Powers did set up a rump Polish puppet state, though I agree they would want to keep it as weak as possible. I could see just the Polish portion of Galicia (with borders drawn to favour the Ukranians) and a small, independent East Galicia or a large Ukrainian state (depending on what happened in Russia); or I could also see Galicia emerging wholly independent under a German monarch with the hopes that the Poles and Ukrainians will play off each other and keep the state weak (though this route is a lot riskier).

 

[Snaut]

I don't know much about pre-WWII Czechoslovak history, so I'll defer to somebody who does know, but I was under the impression that Czechs and Slovaks never really got along within Czechoslovakia (though that was probably more a result of the difference between the Austrian policy towards the Czechs and the Hungarian policy towards the Slovaks than any sort inability of the Czechs and Slovaks to get along). Still, in the event of a Germany victory in WWI I agree with you that the Germans would not want such a large state in Central Europe and probably would promote the idea of Czech and Slovak nationalism (or just annex Bohemia and give Slovakia to Hungary).

I was referring to the relative prominence of the idea of Czechoslovakism before 1918. It's true (and unsurprising) that the result caused friction - but seeing how Czechoslovakia remained joined together and democratic until 1939, it couldn't have been that great.

 

[KACKO]

I don't know much about pre-WWII Czechoslovak history, so I'll defer to somebody who does know, but I was under the impression that Czechs and Slovaks never really got along within Czechoslovakia (though that was probably more a result of the difference between the Austrian policy towards the Czechs and the Hungarian policy towards the Slovaks than any sort inability of the Czechs and Slovaks to get along).

Slovak support for Czechoslovakia came with knowledge of Slovak politicians, writers, lawyers and other engaged in Slovak national revival that Slovakia as such does not have enough educated people to run country by themselves.

There was simple reason for that. There were not Slovak High Schools in Slovakia from 1875 when last was closed by Hungarian authorities till 1918. Whoever studied at High Schools and Universities did it at Hungarians in Hungarian or left for Czech lands where they could study in Czech.

However later there were disputes about Slovak autonomy which was promised. However even supporters of autonomy as Andrej Hlinka and his People Party were supportive to Czechoslovak republic up to Munich.

Of course there was other reasons for disputes - for example to help Slovakia after A-H was dissolved huge amount of Czech professional came to Slovakia. From policemen and soldiers to teachers doctors, bank clarks, railway and post office workers.

However in 30-ties there started to be sufficient amount of Slovaks with education however unable to find work due to Great depression but also because work was taken by Czechs in Slovakia. Some numbers are saying something between 100-200 000 Czechs officials were working in Slovakia. Their help was very important for Slovakia but Prague didn't realize complications it can cause later.

In my opinion that's was one of biggest problems in Czech - Slovak relation at the time. Probably if they started to remove them slowly as young Slovaks started to come out from schools it would be better.

On other side cutting ties with Hungary caused problems for Slovak industry which was orientated towards Hungary and Balkan. That's was another problem. Different railways rates for deliveries from Slovakia to Czech lands and further which were not very favorable for Slovak based companies and I believe were based on old A-H rates didn't help either. I believe this issue was later addressed but already caused a lot of damage in Slovakia.

Slovak parties including Hlinka's People parties tried to address the problems and supported Czechoslovakia sometime more sometimes less when following their own agenda. However Czechoslovakia was seen as a wall against Hungarian revanchism. After all Slovaks on territories Hungary annexed after 1st Vienna in 1938 was could see what would be expected if Hungary took over whole Slovakia again - Slovak schools were closed, teachers expelled, Slovak students prosecuted or pressed to switch to Hungarian High Schools etc. Of course this had consequences after WWII when Czechoslovakia and Slovaks followed similar policy for at least a decade after war towards Hungarians.