A House Divided: A TL

[Utgard96]

I imagine the Civil War will be delayed without Kansas-Nebraska, but Dred Scott is still going to come up in 1857.

I would just remind you that, while Dred Scott was born well before the PoD, the chain of events that led to his lawsuit only started circa 1831.

EDIT: It's also worth remembering that John Quincy Adams is still Chief Justice. Although, who knows how many years he's got left by this point...

 

[Utgard96]

Alright, I'm putting this in its own post rather than in the update, because that's how I've done it for the previous continent-wide maps.

 

[Gentleman Johnny]

Alright, I'm putting this in its own post rather than in the update, because that's how I've done it for the previous continent-wide maps.

Wow, I didn't realize how much we took from Mexico till now... I wonder if they'll be able to successfully introduce slavery there. Also Mexico losing a lot more land than in OTL will likely cause Mexico to enter into another period of civil war which may just tear the nation apart completely.

 

[magicmikey]

My body is ready for the eventual collapse of the First Republic.

 

[St. Just]

Wondering how the California partition will look. Also, Mexico is left with a much more centralized and indigenously-populated country. Could we see a more radical Juarismo against the criollo landowning class and against the Catholic Church (an ultimate subversion of Mexico's IOTL devout Catholicism)? Chan Santa Cruz on steroids?

 

[St. Just]

Also, having done a re-read recently, my prediction is that the Greater South and perhaps West stay on as the Second Republic under the original USA constitution, while the industrial regions have some level of *socialist or at least union-led society and government (the different writers unions operating as presses vis-a-vis the universities we see for the southern cities). Not to mention "UAR-13" -- United American Republic?

 

[magicmikey]

snip

I think the United States will more or less stayed united (though the idea of some states not signing off on the Second Republic sounds interesting). Given how in that same post the script mentions "the first United States" and in the Nullification Crisis post mentions a First and Second Republic seems to allude that the United States still exists just under a different government than the one it has as of 1852.

 

[St. Just]

The other big contextual clue we have for a split in the US is the fact that Brasil is the third-largest country in the world, meaning two out of Canada, Russia, China and America need to be smaller. China is a prime candidate for losing big regions if the Qing collapse, and America is foreshadowed as having a longer-lasting slavery and a really bad crisis of capital in the 1870s, two conditions that, along with decades-long simmering regional tensions, seem to indicate an American split.

Canada could also not confederate and we could see yet another Russian balkanization, but IMO China and America are the two big candidates that allow Brasil (which has relatively less avenues to expand) to be the 3rd largest country in the world in the present day ITTL.

 

[Gian]

The other big contextual clue we have for a split in the US is the fact that Brasil is the third-largest country in the world, meaning two out of Canada, Russia, China and America need to be smaller. China is a prime candidate for losing big regions if the Qing collapse, and America is foreshadowed as having a longer-lasting slavery and a really bad crisis of capital in the 1870s, two conditions that, along with decades-long simmering regional tensions, seem to indicate an American split.

Canada could also not confederate and we could see yet another Russian balkanization, but IMO China and America are the two big candidates that allow Brasil (which has relatively less avenues to expand) to be the 3rd largest country in the world in the present day ITTL.

It may actually be both, since Brazil is the fifth-largest in the world (even if it decides to retake Cisplatina or poach more land in South America)

 

[Utgard96]

I won't comment on any of this except to say that I feed off this speculation, so if you all want me to keep working on this, this is a very good way to achieve that.

 

[TheTexasRanger]

Me seeing how small Texas is ITTL.

 

[naraht]

A few comments on getting Brazil to third Largest. The countries that are larger than that are almost certainly going to include *some* power containing OTL Asiatic Russia, I don't know if I've *ever* seen a TL with a post 1700 POD with OTL Asiatic Russia split into more than 2 significant parts and each of *those* would be in the mix for largest.

Trimming down China isn't really that tough. There have certainly been times when China was *not* considered to have been divided when it has been only the area south of Beijing and East of a line running more or less from the Southernmost point in Mongolia to the current Chinese/India/Burma Tripoint. Manchuria, Tibet and the Muslim areas can certainly be independent, *without* China feeling particularly stripped of land.

As for Canada, who says any of it is still independent of the USA?

In sort, I expect a North Asian Country (Probably ruled from Moscow) to be one of the two and the other to either be a more or less OTL sized "Canada" *or* a superlarge USA.

Getting Brazil to number *two* iTTL requires either north Asia or North America to be *completely* shattered.

 

[DanMcCollum]

Just read this entire timeline, and I'm loving it!

 

[Basileus_Komnenos]

Hi @Utgard96,
I just wanted to express how I really enjoy this timeline. I found it fascinating with the more unstable UK ittl. I just started reading this timeline, but I skipped ahead to some of the maps, and I have some questions. I noticed that Congress Poland still exists in 1850, was the massive Polish November Uprisings of otl successful? Also what basemap are you using for your maps? They're very well made and pleasing to the eyes.