A failed Sea Lion - what would be the concequences?

[hwyl]

I absolutely agree with the general consensus that a successful Sea Lion is basically almost a sci-fi scenario, too far-fetched to be that interesting. But a failed attempt would surely be quite a bit more plausible and rather fascinating - what would have been the concequences? We now well know that Hitler wasn't very enthusiastic about the prospect and that German staff work was realistic and grim about the operation, but it's not beyond belief that in those heady days they might have overestimated themselves and bought wholesale a "who dares wins" type of gamble. I tried to search for such a scenario but came up short (maybe not a miracle with this particular search function) Anyway, could someone point to a good and comprehensive scenario about this?

 

[Crowbar Six]

It depends on the version of Sealion you look at. I think it is a given the Germans lose the whole first wave either drowned or killed in actual combat ashore and taken as POW there wouldn't be a second wave as iirc the barges were to be reused to lift the second wave and for resupply.

Luftwaffe losses would be substantial as would the RAF and FAA but the UK would be in a better position than the Germans to regenerate aircraft and crew losses if more than 50% of the JU 52 force survived at the end I would be shocked. The Kriegsmarine, other than U boats would be largely gone, nothing heavier than a S Boat or some of their small destroyers might survive undamaged and any of the heavy units committed are destined to decorate the bottom of the Channel.

The loss of all those coasters, tugs and other impressed vessels which were supposed to transport or tow the invasion force together with the barges will have a significant impact on German industry. Maybe the losses would be such as to render Barbarossa moot until 1942.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

The short answer is that losing so much of its river and coastal transport would cripple the mainland European economy thus shortening the war.

Really, a lot depends on what's launched.
If it's a quickly assembled force to try to drive on London with some other assaults elsewhere on the coast, maybe 100,000 troops by sea between Cornwall and Scotland and 15,000 by air (based on estimates in Churchill's chapter on Sealion [1]) all with light equipment then the shipping and air transport losses will probably be most significant and a bit over 100,000 killed, missing and captured won't be good news, but probably could be justified for the rewards of any form of success. There would also be a big boost to allied morale.
For a larger attempt (say 200,000 plus focussed on the South East with some supporting heavy equipment) there is no chance of avoiding detection so they will get intercepted by naval forces which won't end well for the invasion fleet and supporting Kriegsmarine forces. It's quite possible that some vessels will turn around and get home, so maybe killed, missing, captured wouldn't be all that much higher but there will also be annoying equipment losses. Loss of sea and air transports would still have the biggest impact, but the effective destruction of the Kriegsmarine (at least for a few months) could free up a lot of British naval resources, even though they would have taken damage and losses. Similarly, the British can more quickly pass Home Defence to Home Guard and other training units to free up regular forces as soon as equipment permits.
In both cases the biggest impact is that the European economy has lost a huge amount of its transport capacity which it will take years to recover from, while the loss of army air transport is probably less crippling but will inconvenience many operations. Losses of roughly 100,000 troops and possibly some equipment is - at this stage of the war - probably not too hard to bear and is minor in comparison.

[1] Edit, actually it's just before the Sealion chapter.

 

[nbcman]

Michele’s A Better Show is a good TL which includes a failed USM

A Better Show in 1940

A Better Show by the Luftwaffe in 1940 Question: Could the Luftwaffe put up a better show in 1940, being more effective in engaging the British in an air campaign? Answer: Yes. Question: Would this be beneficial to Germany in the long run? Answer: not necessarily… --- In 1936, General...

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