A Duty to be Done

[Usili]

Credit to title-card goes to @Beata Beatrix​

I: Two Terms, Never Elected

It was coming down to the wire, that was all for certain. Both Governor Jimmy Carter and President Gerald Ford looked upon the results coming in, and President Ford's rapid catchup since the conventions had done the duty well. This was not the Democratic blowout some had thought it would be before the conventions. Whichever party won would be by the slimmest of margins in the Electoral College. As the clock hit 3AM on the East Coast, two states in the East were still too close to be called: Mississippi and Ohio. At 5:41AM, Mississippi was called for Ford. With the announcement of Mississippi, everything was resting on Ohio. Whoever won Ohio would win the Presidency. Governor Carter was at 265 electoral votes while President Ford was at 247 electoral votes. And throughout the rest of November 3rd, the entire nation watched as the ballots continued to be counted in Ohio. No one sure on where it might fall. And then at 11:47PM EST, the state of Ohio would announce that President Ford had won the state; Ford had won the 25 electoral votes settling the Electoral College at 273-265. President Ford had won a second term despite all the odds against him, while Governor Carter who had been guaranteed a win had lost.

The results of the election were shocking to say the least, with Governor Carter having lost despite having more than one and a half million votes than President Ford (this would eventually be settled at slightly less than 1.6 million votes) had got in the election. Such a sharp difference in the Electoral College and Popular Vote had never happened in the scheme of modern politics, with it having happened only three times before, the 1824, 1876, and 1888 Presidential Elections. After nearly eight years of constant political turmoil (starting with the assassination of MLK Jr. and RFK to Watergate to the first President to have never been elected and then to Nixon's pardon) the discrepancy between the Electoral College and the Popular Vote for a man who was never elected in President in the first place, had been nothing worse than calamitous. Two elections in the last sixteen years had nearly been as close, but likely towards a deadlock in the electoral college. If Missouri and Illinois had flipped to Nixon over Kennedy, no one would have had a majority (269) of the electoral college in 1960, while if Missouri and New Jersey had flipped to Humphrey versus Nixon, again no one would have had a majority (270) of the electoral college in 1960. In both of those cases, you would have had the election forced to the House of Representatives to decide for the President and the Senate to decide for the President as mentioned in Article II, Section 1 (and then later clarified by the Twelfth Amendment). But in the case as it was now? You did not have a third party who had won electoral votes. It had been a straight Democratic vs. Republican election, and one in which the results could not be worse for the nation.

November 3rd, saw both President Ford and Governor Carter preparing legally the measures that could be taken for major recounts in Ohio and Mississippi; Ohio was expected by both nominees considering how close it was and the votes continued to be counted, while for Governor Carter, he planned to push for recounts in Mississippi and Oregon if he lost Ohio considering how 'tight' the Electoral College between the two was. The announcement of Ohio going to Ford, and his 'victory' in the 1976 Presidential Election would see immediate action by the Carter campaign for recounts in Ohio, Mississippi, and Oregon. They would file immediate suit in Ohio, Mississippi, and Oregon to allow immediate recounts statewide considering the margin of the vote present; this was in addition to the lack of any kind of 'automatic' recount law present in any of the three states depending on the margin of the vote present. President Ford would following the Carter campaign's account of the recounts, support them, knowing that the margins of the vote and that rumors of any kind of corruption or impacts to the vote could cause further problems in his second term. The eyes of the nation would find themselves transfixed on the three states, most particularly Ohio which had been the closest of the three states in terms of the raw voter margin and percentage. The recounts would slowly be completed state by state with Oregon finishing first by a 5,413 vote margin for Ford, followed by Mississippi finishing second with a 3,021 vote margin for Ford. All eyes were on Ohio as the last state for the recount, and the closest of the three. Already, due to the amount of time being taken for Ohio had noticed several votes having to be thrown out due to multiple presidential nominees selected, rumors of votes being altered or changed, some multiples of votes from the same people, and the list went on. Already, the Ohio Supreme Court had ruled for an extension of the recount and it was apparent that the final vote be finished by November 29th, nearly four weeks after Election Day. Both President Ford and Governor Carter had prepared speeches accepting the result of the recounts in Oregon, Mississippi, and especially Ohio and to work and support whoever won Ohio. The announcement by Ohio Secretary of State Ted W. Brown was clear and simple; Ford had maintained Ohio by 1,573 votes, the margin having been narrowed from 2,342 originally, a decrease of 769 votes. Fifteen minutes after Brown concluded his announcement, Governor Jimmy Carter would concede the election to President Gerald Ford. Governor Carter would explicitly urge those who had voted for him and his supporters that President Ford had fairly won the 1976 reelection. That the system in place since Washington had won Ford his reelection, and that if they wanted to change it to work from the inside and campaign to do so.

It was arguably what no one wanted of such a discrepancy, but Gerald Ford had won his second term as President of the United States. He arguably had to unite the country from such a result, but considering his position as the first President that was arguably not elected by the people, and the results of the election would only put further questions over his Presidency. As he had stated in the 1976 Republican National Convention, he became Vice President and President without seeking either. Right now, it was 'a duty to be done' for the President in his second term in office.

 

[Sabot Cat]

I look forward to seeing the implications of Ford's re-election not only in domestic politics, as the Republicans just had a President that was never elected attain a second term while their last one had to resign, but also geopolitics, as I think Carter brought his own spin on foreign relations that Ford will likely deviate from in interesting ways.

 

[Beata Beatrix]

Very curious and pleased to see this up, Usili!

 

[Jim Smitty]

I'm game. Honestly I'm wondering what kind of fall out there will be for Ford winning the election. If the economy tanks like OTL the Dems are taking the White House back in 1980, the bigger question through is who is going to be on the topic of the ticket. Then again with Carter out this opens up a big can of worms in American politics, and by larger accounts the world.

Two big names come to mind on their future in this TL. Ronald Reagan and Hyman Rickover. Reagan most likely is never going to be president ITL. Rickover is going to be forced out of the USN. What kind of shake up in the Silent Service will happen by him before forced out before the Ohio Class is ready to be commissioned.

 

[King of the Uzbeks]

Interesting.

 

[QueenofScots]

70s are a bit of an untouched subject here. I like it.

 

[Zachanassian]

It'll be interesting to see the effects Carter losing has on the Democratic Party ITTL. 1976 was the second Presidential race after the McGovern-Fraser recommendations and the first in which primaries (rather than caucuses) dominated the primary process, so Carter was in many ways a test-run for the new system. With a third straight loss under the Democrats' belts, there will probably be more and more calls for an extensive re-examination of the Democratic Party's inner workings.

I don't know enough about 1970s/1980s politics to guess who might be a realistic Democratic candidate in 1980, though I kind of want to see if Jerry Brown will run again. Ford is term-limited, so the GOP primary will also be open. Fun.

 

[kodak]

Ford always deserved to win, but not like this. Looking forward to seeing which opportunities he takes and misses.

1980 will be very interesting if the recession happens like IOTL, as the Democrats will probably retain and expand their supermajorities in Congress and keep the Republicans locked out of power in most states as well. They'll have a thirties-level mandate. I wouldn't be surprised if the next Democratic president is analogous to FDR ITTL.

 

[Jim Smitty]

Ford always deserved to win, but not like this. Looking forward to seeing which opportunities he takes and misses.

1980 will be very interesting if the recession happens like IOTL, as the Democrats will probably retain and expand their supermajorities in Congress and keep the Republicans locked out of power in most states as well. They'll have a thirties-level mandate. I wouldn't be surprised if the next Democratic president is analogous to FDR ITTL.

The question is who? The Dems are most likely taking a long hard look at things ITL and at their interworkings. They should have won this election but lost it. I wonder if in 1980 we would see a plank in the Dems Convention. Carter did win the PV but lost the EV. And if memory serves there have been a string of close elections before this. There is Ted Kennedy, but he has more problems than you can shake a stick at. Bill Clinton is too young. He is about to be Arkansas's AG. Al Gore could be a dark horse. Mondale was more a lamb to be put to slaughter because no one believed they could defeat Reagan in 84. Gary Hart is a possibly but he doesn't seem that strong to me. And he would be Bill Clinton in the 1980s. Cuomo is possible.

Honestly who will the Dems bring out in 1980 is the 64,000 dollar question here.

 

[Jim Smitty]

Also stray thought but could we see a 1980s Manhattan Project levels by who ever takes over the White House on Green energy to keep the another oil crisis from happening?

 

[darklordoftech]

Carter winning IOTL proved to be the worst thing to happen to the Democrats since James Buchanan. Ford winning would deny the GOP of today their mythology. Instead, the New Deal mythology would be reaffirmed.

 

[r1ncewind]

Surely ittl there will be calls to abolish the EC?

 

[Jim Smitty]

Carter winning IOTL proved to be the worst thing to happen to the Democrats since James Buchanan. Ford winning would deny the GOP of today their mythology. Instead, the New Deal mythology would be reaffirmed.

Honestly it might be for the best that Carter lost ITL. It will more than likely keep Reagan out of the White House and his anti-government message that has come to be the backbone of the GOP today. Also without Reagan the Christian Right may never become politically as active as they have today.

Carter was simply the wrong person at the wrong time. Then again so was Ford.

 

[Usili]

I'm game. Honestly I'm wondering what kind of fall out there will be for Ford winning the election. If the economy tanks like OTL the Dems are taking the White House back in 1980, the bigger question through is who is going to be on the topic of the ticket. Then again with Carter out this opens up a big can of worms in American politics, and by larger accounts the world.

Two big names come to mind on their future in this TL. Ronald Reagan and Hyman Rickover. Reagan most likely is never going to be president ITL. Rickover is going to be forced out of the USN. What kind of shake up in the Silent Service will happen by him before forced out before the Ohio Class is ready to be commissioned.

In regards to the top of the ticket, I'd suggest looking at mentions of who were Governors and Senators in 1978 along with those who ran in the 1976 Democratic primaries for who might be considered possibilities.

In regards to Reagan and Rickover, both things that will be covered in due time.

It'll be interesting to see the effects Carter losing has on the Democratic Party ITTL. 1976 was the second Presidential race after the McGovern-Fraser recommendations and the first in which primaries (rather than caucuses) dominated the primary process, so Carter was in many ways a test-run for the new system. With a third straight loss under the Democrats' belts, there will probably be more and more calls for an extensive re-examination of the Democratic Party's inner workings.

I don't know enough about 1970s/1980s politics to guess who might be a realistic Democratic candidate in 1980, though I kind of want to see if Jerry Brown will run again. Ford is term-limited, so the GOP primary will also be open. Fun.

That was admittedly something I wasn't explicitly thinking of in terms of further examination of the inner workings following the loss of Carter, but something that has already brought some thoughts to mind at the moment. To admit bluntly, it might wind up similar to what was thought of following the 1980 landslide defeat of Carter, but still something to ponder on to handle.

Ford always deserved to win, but not like this. Looking forward to seeing which opportunities he takes and misses.

1980 will be very interesting if the recession happens like IOTL, as the Democrats will probably retain and expand their supermajorities in Congress and keep the Republicans locked out of power in most states as well. They'll have a thirties-level mandate. I wouldn't be surprised if the next Democratic president is analogous to FDR ITTL.

I always view Ford as something of an interesting figure, especially considering that prior to becoming Vice President he wanted to retire from the House following the 1976 elections because he could never have become Speaker of the House (and permanently stuck as Minority Leader).

Carter winning IOTL proved to be the worst thing to happen to the Democrats since James Buchanan. Ford winning would deny the GOP of today their mythology. Instead, the New Deal mythology would be reaffirmed.

In terms of a 'New Deal mythology'? I think that would be wrong considering the changes that were emerging in the 1976 Election that would foretell the 1980 Election IOTL. As Lou Harris said in the video below, "I'd say that probably this New Deal Coalition won't last through another election." For reference, it's the section from 6:30-10:00 that is rather interesting to hear from Lou Harris that would arguably express what we saw in the 1980 Election.

Surely ittl there will be calls to abolish the EC?

That is rather likely to happen, but whether it might be fully abolished? That would be a question to solve in terms of how to handle the Electoral College, since there would be advocates for reforming it in order to maintain it but make it more fair, but then there would also be advocates who would want to get rid of it entirely and go entirely to a popular view. Both would have pro's and con's in it, which are likely to be discussed and remain a thorny issue to be handled.

 

[Oppo]

Great start, Ford winning in 1976 is a truly fantastic POD. Hopefully, your's is better than my abomination of a Ford 1976 TL.

 

[Jim Smitty]

Big questions are also there about the future of Iran and the future of the PRC.

 

[darklordoftech]

Also interesting is that Bob Jones' anger would be directed at Ford, not Carter.

 

[Yes]

Yay! It's underway! Best wishes for it (and kind thanks for your appreciation of my ramblings in the "1980s Democratic Revolution" thread.) Very glad to see you at work on one of the genuinely big PODs of post-1945 America.

 

[Yes]

Big questions are also there about the future of Iran and the future of the PRC.

Relations with the PRC are likely to be much the same as IOTL, and Deng is still in good position to keep his steady move forward post-Hua. Probably broadly the same outcomes just different boosters (Zbig Brzezinski in Carter's administration was the boss Sinophile; with Ford it's likely to be Poppy Bush who was the first official US representative to China prior to his CIA gig, and is still the odds-on favorite to get State when Kissinger retires.)

Now about Iran. One of the things people typically do when they grill for a barbecue, whether it's a gas grill or a charcoal one, is put the lid down right after it's lit to build a steady level of heat for even cooking. Some friends of mine once did that with a propane grill. Turned on the gas, put the lid down. But the pilot light never struck. The gas built up inside the confined space and the metal lid stayed clamped down. They tried to light it again -- with the lid still on. The lid landed roughly thirty yards north of their position, and one of them lost a little arm hair. In the analogy, the gas is the burgeoning unrest of the dislocated poor, disaffected professional classes, and disenfranchised clergy building up from the petering out of the White Revolution and the death of Ali Shariati. The metal lid is the Shah's own desire to hang on to as much power as possible while he's dying, buttressed by the Ford administration doubling the frak down on his regime. Whether he reveals his illness in a timely way or not, the Ford crew likely back some form of military junta-as-trusteeship for the teenage Young Reza. The pilot light is any number of possible factors, so many that the revolutionary butterflies outnumber the counter-revolutionary ones by a level of statistical significance. The rocket-powered lid is everything going to hell in a handbasket just in time for the 1980 presidential cycle, even more so than it did IOTL. And if anyone suggests this can be ameliorated by Khomeini walking out into unfortunately heavy traffic, remember (1) Twelver Shi'a thrives on martyrs and you just created one of the biggest ones since Ali himself, and (2) there is a whole generation of younger, more agile clergy waiting to take over (as they did IOTL in the late Eighties) only at this point they haven't been sobered by a decade of government and dealing with the mass slaughter of the Iran-Iraq war, they're still fresh-faced zealots hoping to see the Hidden Imam made known in their lifetimes.

I'd say there's also a middling chance (only middling, but middling) that when things go south on Somoza, Ford is counseled into a military intervention to keep Francisco Urcuyo (Somoza's vice president, on the Somocismo sin Somoza principle) in power. His Guardia Nacional collapsed for the usual sort of reason: only a few units around Managua were well-trained and equipped, the rest were just conscript detachments scattered across the country with no love for the regime. The Sandanistas pushed the whole rotten thing over with just c. 5,000 properly trained and equipped FSLN guerillas, and about as many muchachos scattered about the provinces -- young men, often teenagers, with pre-World War II pistols and occasionally rifles of the same vintage, playing at revolution where Somoza's conscripts had decided to make themselves scarce. With the FSLN marching on Managua -- and so vulnerable to air power on the move -- Ford might be talked into a splendid little war there to stop them. Or he might not, but it's a possibility.

 

[Usili]

I'd like to give credit to @Beata Beatrix for doing a titlecard for this TL which I put in the initial chapter.