Below is a great circle flight path from RAF Coningsby to the current Cologne-Bonn international airport (300 NM). Note the routing - the nearest part of the North Sea coast under German control is nearly 100 NM off track, and radar stations are going to be a high priority RAF target. It isn't quite the BoB in terms of reaction time because the Ruhr is that bit further inland, but it's certainly much closer than OTL. In fact I suspect quite a lot of the German air raid warning will come from ground observers rather than radar systems...
A Blunted Sickle
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And to indicate just how much France being available cuts off the flight time, Dresden is only 270 NM from the far East of France - the OTL bomber airfields in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire were twice the distance away.
On the Schweinfurt mission, each B-17 dropped about 4,500 lbs of bombs. Schweinfurt is ~120 NM from Alsace/Lorraine, making it easily within range for light bombers with fighter escort (although the Beaumont is a light bomber and drops ~4,000 lbs - the penalty for the sort of gun/armour combination carried by the B-17 is severe!). That sort of raid is probably a bit marginal for a Spitfire to escort, but a Tornado/Typhoon would have no problems on internal fuel only - with drop tanks they could escort as far as Berlin.
On the Schweinfurt mission, each B-17 dropped about 4,500 lbs of bombs. Schweinfurt is ~120 NM from Alsace/Lorraine, making it easily within range for light bombers with fighter escort (although the Beaumont is a light bomber and drops ~4,000 lbs - the penalty for the sort of gun/armour combination carried by the B-17 is severe!). That sort of raid is probably a bit marginal for a Spitfire to escort, but a Tornado/Typhoon would have no problems on internal fuel only - with drop tanks they could escort as far as Berlin.
Ground Observers. Not only smaller range, but likely worse information.
And with no proper system to coordinate this information, we're going to see 30%-50% interception rates again. Which basically means that sending at best 50% of your force up into the air is literally worse than useless, as fatigues pilots and airframes, and uses precious Aviation Fuel.
...Now I'm wondering what LW interception rates were like.
MrP
Banned
Aye, it's a good point. Although the Germans did have more advanced radar technology in 1940, they hadn't figured out how to integrate it into a comprehensive early warning system. What made Chain Home so effective was that the information was rapidly processed and acted upon at the higher levels.
Bomber launches from the UK?
Earlier in the war, when the Germans controlled the coast, it may have been worthwhile to bomb the coast from the UK, but with the coast no longer controlled by the Germans, does the ability to attack from multiple directions outweigh the additional distance they would have to travel from the UK?
Earlier in the war, when the Germans controlled the coast, it may have been worthwhile to bomb the coast from the UK, but with the coast no longer controlled by the Germans, does the ability to attack from multiple directions outweigh the additional distance they would have to travel from the UK?
A bombing offensive needs a LOT of logistical support; its quite likely this limitation would mean the use of UK bases even though its further.
Ermmm... sorta-kinda. Eastern France (Lorraine really) is pretty much untouched by the war so far and the rail routes aren't too badly affected by war traffic either. Ship the bombs and fuel, etc. down to Marseilles and then up by rail and you've solved most of your logistical problems. Airfields and airspace are a big issue, but one that was solved in OTL and critically they haven't started on a major airfield building programme in the UK yet ITTL. You'll still have the prewar and early war airfields, but that's a fraction of what came later.
In terms of airfield building, actually, they're in pretty good shape - Italian and Spanish migrant labour is available to work on them, rather than just Irish as OTL. They certainly aren't going to close any UK bases, but I suspect the concentration on new bases is probably going to be in Eastern France.
"The Maginot line... It needs a little... Something."
"And by something you means Trainloads of AA guns?"
"Precisely."
MrP
Banned
The part about Spanish labour makes me wonder about the Spanish Republican refugees who were languishing in detention camps in 1940. France could certainly find a use for them, especially the large numbers of former soldiers.
The Luftwaffe problem is worse than you think.
Eventually
Which matter will be compounded by various people at Worth Matravers eventually.
In the BoB the RAF has a fairly clear look ahead over France and the Channel but once over the coast inland interceptions were managed by the observer corps feeding data back, but with fighters already climbing based on radar data.
TTL the Germans are looking over the complete friggin mess that is the western Front with all manner of air activity that needs interpreting. And as said they are starting from a much,much lower conceptual base on GCI. And mountains.
So you need to imagine as soon as the strength is there a sustained attritional attack on the air field infrastructure in the occupied areas and western Germany intended to drive the LW back.
The side attacking has tremendous advantages at this point. They know the target of their attack, the timings and location. The defender has to ID the raid, determine whether they can intercept, launch and vector in fighters against a background of noise from general air activity.
The Distances to the key strategic and operational targets are short once you cross the front lines. So an intercept has a comparatively short time ( 30 minutes = 100 miles at a cruise speed) to identify the threat, identify the target i.e. where to send the interceptor) and get there with the problem that the attacker probably has a fair idea as to where you are starting from, which will be in range of at least some fast attacking aircraft. The pressure will be to have aircraft in the sky no matter what for long periods of the day with consequent wear and tear and fuel consumption.
The LW has a couple of fundamental disadvantages. Its an attritional war they are not on many levels set up to fight. The RAF starts the war planning for 50k replacement aircrew per year, the LW plans on a 2 month campaign and commits a lot of its training structure to maximise the power for the short campaign. The LW has a narrower repair base and low serviceability levels, something like 40-45% of all LW losses were non combat flying around waiting for orders leads to a significant casualty and damage level. So think lots of Sicily/Bodenplatte type operations from both sides but the Entente able to recover faster.
And the Entente have a lot of tactical options once they get their infrastructure in place. So a TTL Operation Millenium could be 300 Bombers leaving the UK, picking up a 200 plane fighter escort over Holland with 300 Potez and Beau doing low level attacks on radar/air defence infrastructure generally and a 200 fighter AdA component picking up the escort/flying a fighter sweep to cover the bombers as they recover to Lorraine, with the next day being a return shuttle. And bear in mind that maximum effort from Bomber command would be around 600 bombers and the cross channel fighter sweeps were hundreds of aircraft.
If you detect a 250 plane fighter sweep coming at you what does the defender do?If you commit what do you do about the 600 Bomber raid that comes on screens 15 minutes later?
If they can drive the LW back far enough the escorts may actually be a BARCAP between the bombers and interceptors. Worth remembering that around 80% of missions flown by 2 TAF are actually air superiority.
The Spanish Republicans will fall into two parts. The Stalinists having an existentialist crisis in French internment camps in hot sweaty parts of the world the Trots continuing the struggle against fascist/Stalinist tyranny in La Legion while saying, told you so
Eventually
Which matter will be compounded by various people at Worth Matravers eventually.
In the BoB the RAF has a fairly clear look ahead over France and the Channel but once over the coast inland interceptions were managed by the observer corps feeding data back, but with fighters already climbing based on radar data.
TTL the Germans are looking over the complete friggin mess that is the western Front with all manner of air activity that needs interpreting. And as said they are starting from a much,much lower conceptual base on GCI. And mountains.
So you need to imagine as soon as the strength is there a sustained attritional attack on the air field infrastructure in the occupied areas and western Germany intended to drive the LW back.
The side attacking has tremendous advantages at this point. They know the target of their attack, the timings and location. The defender has to ID the raid, determine whether they can intercept, launch and vector in fighters against a background of noise from general air activity.
The Distances to the key strategic and operational targets are short once you cross the front lines. So an intercept has a comparatively short time ( 30 minutes = 100 miles at a cruise speed) to identify the threat, identify the target i.e. where to send the interceptor) and get there with the problem that the attacker probably has a fair idea as to where you are starting from, which will be in range of at least some fast attacking aircraft. The pressure will be to have aircraft in the sky no matter what for long periods of the day with consequent wear and tear and fuel consumption.
The LW has a couple of fundamental disadvantages. Its an attritional war they are not on many levels set up to fight. The RAF starts the war planning for 50k replacement aircrew per year, the LW plans on a 2 month campaign and commits a lot of its training structure to maximise the power for the short campaign. The LW has a narrower repair base and low serviceability levels, something like 40-45% of all LW losses were non combat flying around waiting for orders leads to a significant casualty and damage level. So think lots of Sicily/Bodenplatte type operations from both sides but the Entente able to recover faster.
And the Entente have a lot of tactical options once they get their infrastructure in place. So a TTL Operation Millenium could be 300 Bombers leaving the UK, picking up a 200 plane fighter escort over Holland with 300 Potez and Beau doing low level attacks on radar/air defence infrastructure generally and a 200 fighter AdA component picking up the escort/flying a fighter sweep to cover the bombers as they recover to Lorraine, with the next day being a return shuttle. And bear in mind that maximum effort from Bomber command would be around 600 bombers and the cross channel fighter sweeps were hundreds of aircraft.
If you detect a 250 plane fighter sweep coming at you what does the defender do?If you commit what do you do about the 600 Bomber raid that comes on screens 15 minutes later?
If they can drive the LW back far enough the escorts may actually be a BARCAP between the bombers and interceptors. Worth remembering that around 80% of missions flown by 2 TAF are actually air superiority.
The Spanish Republicans will fall into two parts. The Stalinists having an existentialist crisis in French internment camps in hot sweaty parts of the world the Trots continuing the struggle against fascist/Stalinist tyranny in La Legion while saying, told you so
On come on now. There was more to the Spanish Republicans than the Russian Communists.
I presume the Netherlands also have a good number of airfields. And for the aircraft fuel, where are the refineries? (Don't know if oil, or processed fuel is being shipped to the UK/France)
The Bombs are probably being produced in both places, but how much interchangability is there between the RAF bomb mountings and the AdA? (Has the need for standardization between the UK and French military affected designs?)
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Apologies for the delay - I've been sick as a dog for most of the past week, just about recovered in time to start the new job tomorrow 
Refineries - not sure about France, the UK was mostly Merseyside, Abadan (Iran) and the Caribbean. Quite a bit of refined fuel was imported in OTL, less in TTL I suspect but still substantial quantities.
Not really - at least not by this stage. The Luftwaffe isn't the threat it once was, and is mainly concentrating on the big battle in Belgium. The Maginot line is really experiencing benign neglect at the moment - nothing is getting stripped out, but they're at the back of the queue for new toys.
There's going to be some sort of screening process - communist sympathisers for instance won't find themselves given a gun or working in war factories. I doubt very many will remain detained though - at the very least they'll be released for agricultural work in the South of France.
The conceptual base is important. In OTL when dealing with the USAAF raids they would often have Me-110s or Ju-88s up and shadowing the bomber formations for much of the time, radioing back details about the raid composition and course for quite some time before the intercepts started. That isn't something they can do here due to the presence of fighter escorts - so they're developing an air defence doctrine under much less favourable conditions, and a year or two earlier with much poorer electronic aids.
Pretty much - both sides have major problems, but the Germans are starting without the prewar theory and technical base that the RAF had. The RAF in particular are much better able to absorb losses of men and aircraft.
I would assume that most won't be of fighting age so will end up in civilian rather than military roles.
The Netherlands have some airfields, but the available space is actually pretty limited - certainly not enough for bombers, but they can cram a substantial number of fighters (and transport aircraft, which will be a pretty high priority for shifting urgent cargo/supplies/manpower) in.
Refineries - not sure about France, the UK was mostly Merseyside, Abadan (Iran) and the Caribbean. Quite a bit of refined fuel was imported in OTL, less in TTL I suspect but still substantial quantities.
I'd be very surprised if there was any standardisation yet - that's more likely to be a postwar thing the way I envisage things moving. That doesn't mean all that much though - manufacturing UK-style bombs with French shackles (or indeed UK bombs with both shackle types cast on) is trivially easy, and pouring UK explosives into French bomb shells is also trivially easy.
Pretty much: left-wing liberals, socialists, basque and catalonian nationalists, anarchists.
In a truly ironic timeline, the areas where the Spanish and Italians would be allowed to work would be most of the southern half of the country, excluding the Atlantic coast of course and the government office in charge of the program would be based out of the hotels in the resort town of Vichy.
Saphroneth
Banned
Basically the entire left wing half of Spanish political life, really - comes of the government picking "revolution" between "Revolution" and "Coup".
I see what you did there. Indeed, it would be truly ironic. Although, such a programme would run into a major risk : France had 4 main industrial regions : Nord-Pas de Calais, Alsace and Lorraine, the Parisian region and the Lyonnais region. While nowadays Lyon's industries are mostly oil refineries, chemistry and pharmaceutics, chemistry is crucial to war efforts just like oil is. This means cities with refineries or chemical plants could be removed from the impacted zones.In a truly ironic timeline, the areas where the Spanish and Italians would be allowed to work would be most of the southern half of the country, excluding the Atlantic coast of course and the government office in charge of the program would be based out of the hotels in the resort town of Vichy.
Republicans
The Republican exiles are dominated by Catalans with all the baggage from what happened there with a big dollop of Durriti column anarchists and Basques. TTL there are two big differences. There is longer to bring them into the system but Stalin is clearly supporting the Germans and the POUM and others will be denouncing Stalinists if not specifically then generally because the French Government will be looking for Stalinists.
The Problem for the Broad Left Popular front fuzzy bunny view is by late in the Civil War you are either Pro Stalinist or counterrevolutionary scum to be hunted down and shot by the NKVD. Whether an individual is sufficiently tainted by association will be moot. So Negrin for example is probably in some form of preventative detention somewhere not terribly pleasant in France, or Mexico.
OTL there were about 500k exiles that fell into four groups.
The ones who volunteered usually for the RMVE not the legion per se because of the association of the Legion with the Legion, about 7k.
Airmen, which is generic for skilled tradesmen, mechanics etc who were pretty much hired into industry straight away
People with French relatives aka Basques ( mainly) who could prove a connection to native Frenchmen which might include intelligentsia and probably broadens over time to people with UK etc connections.
CTE – labourers doing heavy lifting outdoors in the rain, minefield clearance and suchlike.
The main difference is likely to be much heavier screening by the French for Stalinist supporters.
The Republican exiles are dominated by Catalans with all the baggage from what happened there with a big dollop of Durriti column anarchists and Basques. TTL there are two big differences. There is longer to bring them into the system but Stalin is clearly supporting the Germans and the POUM and others will be denouncing Stalinists if not specifically then generally because the French Government will be looking for Stalinists.
The Problem for the Broad Left Popular front fuzzy bunny view is by late in the Civil War you are either Pro Stalinist or counterrevolutionary scum to be hunted down and shot by the NKVD. Whether an individual is sufficiently tainted by association will be moot. So Negrin for example is probably in some form of preventative detention somewhere not terribly pleasant in France, or Mexico.
OTL there were about 500k exiles that fell into four groups.
The ones who volunteered usually for the RMVE not the legion per se because of the association of the Legion with the Legion, about 7k.
Airmen, which is generic for skilled tradesmen, mechanics etc who were pretty much hired into industry straight away
People with French relatives aka Basques ( mainly) who could prove a connection to native Frenchmen which might include intelligentsia and probably broadens over time to people with UK etc connections.
CTE – labourers doing heavy lifting outdoors in the rain, minefield clearance and suchlike.
The main difference is likely to be much heavier screening by the French for Stalinist supporters.
Ian_W
Banned
Apologies for the delay - I've been sick as a dog for most of the past week, just about recovered in time to start the new job tomorrow
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Congratulations on the new job.
Hopefully we can get back to arguing rail gauges on the Anchorage-Vancouver line soon enough
I may have some spare time this weekend (it's the training weekend for this year's HCPT trip) and now have a work laptop. Not sure how the encryption works however so I might not actually be able to get an update done this weekend - will be trying though. The Anchorage-Vancouver line (if built) is going to be in Russian gauge however, in order to make the Bering Tunnel easier to operate when they build it in a few yearsCongratulations on the new job.
Hopefully we can get back to arguing rail gauges on the Anchorage-Vancouver line soon enough
Loving the new job so far - I've got more actual engineering done in the last week than I would in about 3 months in my old job. Not sure how long I can keep that up - reality has to bite eventually - but at the moment I'm having a ball running around the place taking pot-shots at sacred cows. Some of the ideas have frightened a few people already, but my boss (and his boss) both seem really keen for me to do it so for now the fun continues!
Actually from what I've seen so far the biggest problem is that to get around some of their problems and get performance to where it needs to be they need to throw their design handbook (developed at great effort over 25 years) out of the window and try some very different things. It's a very conservative organisation (in aerospace so demanding very high reliability/proof that things work) with a manager determined to change the culture, so it'll be fascinating to see how things pan out.
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