A Blunted Sickle

[Karelian]

As to the Red Army. Well its best performance so far is an army sized action in the far east against a backward army ( being polite) and the deployment of 1/3 of the Red Army in Europe to achieve moderate advances against basically a militia, in both cases enjoying a massive air, artillery and armour superiority. This does not bode well for operations against the highly mechanised armies of Western Europe, especially as the longer you ship stuff to Germany the longer you delay your own re-equipment.

Khalkhyn Gol was still a well-executed double envelopment conducted with combined arms, and a battle that prevented a larger war.

And viewing the Finnish Army as a glorified militia instead of a reservist force with good training and horrendously obsolete equipment was the crucial mistake that made the Winter War a Soviet PR disaster it was.

Ultimately both examples were not the kind of conflicts the pre-war RKKA had been trained and prepared for: operational-level warfare in east European farmland and plains. Just like Gamelin did his worst to win the war for Hitler in the West in OTL, the early German successess had a lot to do with the way Stalin mismanaged the Soviet war preparations before the beginning of Barbarossa. The Soviet army had a lot of troubles to fix - but so did the Germans, the French, the British, the Italians, the Japanese and frankly every major power that took part of WW2 in OTL.

Here the fighting in the Western Front in this war has been operationally and tactically really similar to the types of battles fought in the Eastern Front of OTL, and I doubt the Germans could have fared any better in the West in a what-if scenario where the French and the British forces would have been replaced with 1940/-41-vintage Red Army formations.

 

[Gannt the chartist]

Khalkin Ghol

Was indeed well executed ( 4 months after the incident started ) offensive against at peak 20,000 men with 90-100 cannon mostly under 76mm 130 tanks and maybe 250 aircraft (nominal) all stuck within a days infantry march of a rail line or they starve.

Vs 50-55000 men 500 arty ( of which 100+ over 100mm, 500 tanks and 800 aircraft) and 2,500 trucks in the loggies.

By the end of June the IJA has shot off about half the artillery ammunition in Manchuria ( around 25,000 rounds) and from the start of July, this is after the June fighting when the Russian artillery blows apart the IJA attacks, the Russians start firing off 2,000 rounds a day, for a month or so. Meanwhile the IJA is reduced to collecting rainwater in helmets to drink ( it rained about once a week.)

For the August attack there is indeed a double envelopment by 2 inf 3 cav div with 2 mech Bde and 7 arty Rgt in the first echelon, and another rifle div and 5 mech bde in the second, assembled in secret around 600km from their railhead and landing on the open flanks of a starving, thirsty ill equipped, almost ammunitionless ID suffering from amoebic dysentery.

As for Finland.

Well it was a good army that believes in things like firepower. But it’s a mix of reservists and civic guard, with some regulars and very limited kit beyond light infantry weapons how much of that you class as militia is a matter of taste, but I was making a point, they are certainly no better trained or skilled than soviet conscripts, and extremely poorly equipped in comparison, motivation is another matter.

The artillery has 412 guns, 300+ of which are 76mm or below with about 600 shells per gun. ( about 10 times the ammo stocks of the Kwangtung army btw).

And the Russians win.

But to do that they have to deploy just under 1 million men, 6,000 tanks and 3,800 aircraft,

Its very well done, but as a model for how to deal with the by now veteran western European mechanised armies with better artillery than you, large skilled armoured forces and highly competent airforces neither offers a comforting prospect for success.

Incidentally before the post Barbarossa mobilisation the Western Europeans actually outnumber you.

 

[lukedalton]

The problem for the URSS is: Yes they have not lost an humongous number of men or faced almost crippling destruction in the 'Great Patriottic War', hell the Germans have payed with some nice piece of tech.
Unfortunely even the rest of the continent is on a better situation, the Entente had not get even a tenth of OTL destruction (hell the French seem have found some solution at many of their problems) and a big chunk of Europe is not even directely interested in the war...and this mean that while the URSS will have a temporary advantage in the middle and long run things will go as OTL as her economy will go down (ehy are still communist).

As said many time it's the overall strategic situation that's not very good for the Soviet, they are basically surrounded by hostile nation and while the Entente will not start a war with them...the day of the appleasment are gone and everybody will see Stalin for Hitler mk2.
Worse thing, Stalin is still on charge and without the stress of the war will probably last some years more...and Uncle Joe is russia worst enemy always been always was.
Any soft power capacity is gone except some die hard communist but this is not even comparable to the influence and the prestige of OTL and this has not been substitued by an equal hard power capacity...sorry the well oiled war machine of OTL was born by a life or death situation, here Stalin will continue his hobby of eliminate his own people who can become a possible threat...and more time pass the threat will go from possible to immaginary

 

[MrP]

As said many time it's the overall strategic situation that's not very good for the Soviet, they are basically surrounded by hostile nation and while the Entente will not start a war with them...the day of the appleasment are gone and everybody will see Stalin for Hitler mk2.
Worse thing, Stalin is still on charge and without the stress of the war will probably last some years more...and Uncle Joe is russia worst enemy always been always was.

I for one am curious about the domestic situation in the USSR. The worst of the purges are over but when the Third Five-Year Plan fails to meet targets, as it almost certainly will, more heads are going to roll, and more scapegoats invented to deflect public criticism. Conversely, the USSR doesn't lose a huge chunk of its industrial and agricultural base, so perhaps things even out.

 

[naraht]

I for one am curious about the domestic situation in the USSR. The worst of the purges are over but when the Third Five-Year Plan fails to meet targets, as it almost certainly will, more heads are going to roll, and more scapegoats invented to deflect public criticism. Conversely, the USSR doesn't lose a huge chunk of its industrial and agricultural base, so perhaps things even out.

as a general comment

While WWII is said to have given the "REVOLUTION" another 25 years, iTTL's 1964, the Russian people won't be close to being less than a minority in the USSR...

 

[Karelian]

Khalkin Ghol

Was indeed well executed ( 4 months after the incident started ) offensive against at peak 20,000 men with 90-100 cannon mostly under 76mm 130 tanks and maybe 250 aircraft (nominal) all stuck within a days infantry march of a rail line or they starve.

And it's executed in a middle of Mongolian steppe, thus reminding the Japanese that the RKKA was quite capable and willing to deploy strong forces to the most remote parts of Soviet territory if necessary - and that unlike the Japanese, the Soviets were also able to supply their army in such conditions.

And the Soviets win.

By installing the loyal puppet government of Otto Kuusinen to Helsinki and annexing the "4th Baltic state" as they had originally planned?

Its very well done, but as a model for how to deal with the by now veteran western European mechanised armies with better artillery than you, large skilled armoured forces and highly competent airforces neither offers a comforting prospect for success.

Hence Stalin's game has been "let you and him fight" all along.

 

[pdf27]

I would not be too sure on the tech transfer, once the tech is transferred, its gone, cheque is cleared, and they really really will deliver and no chance of them revaluing when they see bits missing. And what happens when you run out of tech?

This gentleman's Russian cousin pays a visit to enquire what other payment method you'd care to use. He accepts kidneys.

But that’s not the issue, The payment out is exactly the same as you need to rearm and develop the Soviet Economy, Selling them spare rope is fine, selling them the rope you need to draw water from the well another thing entirely.

Not really. What the Germans are critically short of are raw materials - oil, copper, rubber, alloying elements and foodstuffs. The Soviet Union is short of the means to expand production - machine tools, electrical power and the like. Some of it is available from the Germans, other parts of it are very long lead-time items. The Uglinch and Rybinsk hydroelectric power stations are under construction at this point for instance and close to coming online, with more downstream to follow if the peace holds.

Stalin supporting them is slowly turning Soviet communism into a cynical malevolent creature supporting all these things, not the Hope of Mankind.

And yet Stalin has done all of those things inside the Soviet Union without anybody giving him problems. Why should he believe that the Germans doing the same in territory they control will be any different?

USSR stays Neutral but pro German and ends up with a border with revanchist Finland, Poland, Romania and scared Turkey backed by two actively hostile world empires and the conquered Germany remade in the image they choose.

Highly unlikely - the Soviets are helping the Germans out of convenience and opportunism. As soon as convenient they'll drop them completely.

USSR backtabs Germany stumbles some distance forward, but not too far because the Home Army is destroying ‘German’ supply lines and threat of the Italians on the flank, leaving a border with Finland, Poland (maybe) Romania and a betrayed Germany remade in the image etc, backed by two actively etc etc

Probably a little pessimistic about the abilities of the RKKA - they're unlikely to declare war on the Germans until there is no threat that they won't win, and the Red Army will have been radically improving for some time after Finland.

USSR joins Hitler in the war, and he is in a hot war with everyone and a totally dependent but ideologically hostile ally, with the risk that Hitler gets a 9mm in the head from his anticommunist entourage with supply lines open to the sort of mobile attack the Italians did so well in Ethiopia ( they did btw).

Deeply implausible

USSR Stays strictly neutral demands payment up front until Germany runs out useful things, the war plays out and depending on the actual duration and endgame has to explain what happened to the Polish POW, and what it did in the war.

Probable, and neither question ever bothered them in the slightest in OTL.

USSR cuts its losses does a deal with the Entente so they recognise the new Polish Border (AKA the 1920 Polish border), Sphere of influence in the Baltics, Finnish Border and Bessarabia, returns the POW ( Anders Corps OTL) with a possible backstab when the ‘full horror’of Nazism is revealed and gets a seat at the peace table.

Probable - the Entente are likely to be offering quite a lot, actually, because if Stalin cuts the Germans off then their economy is really in deep trouble and realistically they can't sustain the war for very much longer. The only question is how soon the Entente realise this, and whether they're willing to do a deal with the devil...

Leaving a hostile Eastern Europe but only a suspicious Entente and a reputation as a ruthless realpolitiker.

Better than OTL 1950 in other words!

Any soft power capacity is gone except some die hard communist but this is not even comparable to the influence and the prestige of OTL and this has not been substitued by an equal hard power capacity...sorry the well oiled war machine of OTL was born by a life or death situation, here Stalin will continue his hobby of eliminate his own people who can become a possible threat...and more time pass the threat will go from possible to immaginary

Not so sure about that - plenty of Soviet-inspired strikes in the US and UK until the 22nd of June 1941 made them change their minds about the war. What the Soviets are doing ITTL isn't really substantially different to what they did in OTL before Barbarossa started, just over a somewhat longer timescale and expanded a little.

I for one am curious about the domestic situation in the USSR. The worst of the purges are over but when the Third Five-Year Plan fails to meet targets, as it almost certainly will, more heads are going to roll, and more scapegoats invented to deflect public criticism. Conversely, the USSR doesn't lose a huge chunk of its industrial and agricultural base, so perhaps things even out.

Now you've given me an idea

as a general comment

While WWII is said to have given the "REVOLUTION" another 25 years, iTTL's 1964, the Russian people won't be close to being less than a minority in the USSR...

The non-Russian populations are also shifted somewhat - Belarus and the Ukraine were massively depopulated by the German invasion and subsequent atrocities, Belarus losing getting on for a quarter of the population. That and the lack of industrial migration to Siberia will shift the centre of gravity of the country further west.

 

[lukedalton]

Not so sure about that - plenty of Soviet-inspired strikes in the US and UK until the 22nd of June 1941 made them change their minds about the war. What the Soviets are doing ITTL isn't really substantially different to what they did in OTL before Barbarossa started, just over a somewhat longer timescale and expanded a little.

And that important, here what had they done in Romania is longer on the international news due to the italian intervention, Finland is not even touched by the nazi stigma and so the winter war is a much clear good vs evil situation and frankly with an alliance with Russia not in the program and the general situation not so dire for the Entente, i suppose that the protests for the Baltics annexation will be greater than OTL and in general there will not the feeling that keeping the RUssian quiet is the best option for an alliance as the UK is alone.

The longer and expanded help to the German don't help really their cause in general and frankly without the help in the liberation of the various nation from the nazis (and being armed and trained) the communist will be in a much much weaker position post-war, the socialist/social-democrats will have a greater impact.

 

[naraht]

The non-Russian populations are also shifted somewhat - Belarus and the Ukraine were massively depopulated by the German invasion and subsequent atrocities, Belarus losing getting on for a quarter of the population. That and the lack of industrial migration to Siberia will shift the centre of gravity of the country further west.

As opposed to the Holodomor taking out only about 25% of most of Ukraine.

Or rather would avoid the OTL shift to the east.

That having been said, the average Russian in counting "Us vs Them" culturally would be much more likely to count other slavs as "Us" as opposed to an Uzbek.

 

[Gannt the chartist]

There are actually more strikes after 41 than before, in the UK at least. And most of them short and minor, there was a reason Ernie was in charge.

Carterovich may visit but that’s it. You send the boys in i.e. declare war or accept what the Germans do. They are dependent but if you don’t need their goods it’s a gift, if you are spending money on Germany, you are not spending it on the USSR.

Germany is not in a position to supply machine tools, electrical power ( really – transcontinental grid in 40) or much of anything except finished manufactured goods and coal. Both of which are needed in Germany. OTL Stalin had a reason to supply, Von Carter and his boys might visit. TTL, why?

Stalin may have done those things inside the closed system of the USSR. But then he has never had a state organised Europe wide propaganda campaign backed by the intelligence services of a country at war, with ( eventually) access to the German records.

Stalin has a judgement call. He could be friendly and helpful to the Entente and do a deal. The less friendly he is the less of a deal he gets, and when the Entente says ‘back doors that way’ he is being given a choice, leave now or face the consequences.

 

[Roisterer]

So I got behind on this TL, and it gets difficult to catch up again.

So Hitler fired the General Staff? Was he already C-in-C here? OTL he didn't take over that role until late 41/early 42.

What happened to Von Brauchitsch?

Regards

R

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Carterovich may visit but that’s it. You send the boys in i.e. declare war or accept what the Germans do. They are dependent but if you don’t need their goods it’s a gift, if you are spending money on Germany, you are not spending it on the USSR.

Germany is not in a position to supply machine tools, electrical power ( really – transcontinental grid in 40) or much of anything except finished manufactured goods and coal. Both of which are needed in Germany. OTL Stalin had a reason to supply, Von Carter and his boys might visit. TTL, why?

Err... What?

Germany is not in a position to supply machine tools, electrical power ( really – transcontinental grid in 40) or much of anything except finished manufactured goods and coal. Both of which are needed in Germany. OTL Stalin had a reason to supply,

Germany is not in the position to bargain. They NEED the raw materials from the Soviets, and what the Soviets want in exchange is things like machine tools. They don't WANT finished goods, they want the ability to make them.

As for electricity, I imagine what was meant was things like high efficiency turbines, larger generators, and the like that Germany can likely build where the Soviets might not be able to.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Probable - the Entente are likely to be offering quite a lot, actually, because if Stalin cuts the Germans off then their economy is really in deep trouble and realistically they can't sustain the war for very much longer. The only question is how soon the Entente realise this, and whether they're willing to do a deal with the devil...

Umm... It will really depend on the Soviet actions in the next few years. Given their current actions (and, as pointed out, the Finns are much more clearly good guys vs the Soviets), given their continued support for Hitler, given their selling raw materials and trucks and stuff, given their invasion of Poland and the Baltics, it's going to be really hard for the Soviets to turn this around.

IOTL, the West was desperate, France was over-run, and then Hitler invaded the USSR, turning them into a co-belligerent. We NEEDED the Soviets to sop up the Nazi masses, and so PR turned Stalin into "Uncle Joe".

ITTL, we're still in the state where the USSR is (not quite) a co-belligerent with the Nazis (not the West), which was leading Britain and France to seriously consider Operation Pike (iOTL). Obviously, Britain/France aren't going to do that now, but unless Stalin moves fast, he's going to be shut out of the post-war deals.

OT3H, the mention of 'West Poland' suggests to me strongly, that Stalin is going to jump really soon, because otherwise, he won't get even that much.

 

[lukedalton]

Highly unlikely - the Soviets are helping the Germans out of convenience and opportunism. As soon as convenient they'll drop them completely.

And the other nations will care of this...not in any meaningfull way. Stalin can have helped Hitler for any motive, even because in secret they were lovers, but for the rest of the continent, the communist nation was Germany silent patner that at the last minute decided to drop it.
Add to this the aggressive moves towards the baltic, Finland, Poland and Romania and no nation that border the URSS will feel very safe.

Probable, and neither question ever bothered them in the slightest in OTL.

OTL the rest of the remaining free world was desperate and cannot afford to make an enemy of Stalin and after all the parties were too tired of the war and the URSS in a too strong position to be even botherd.
Here? The rest of Europe is merely bloodied and in general probably think of Stalin of Hitler mk2, just a little more cautious.

Probable - the Entente are likely to be offering quite a lot, actually, because if Stalin cuts the Germans off then their economy is really in deep trouble and realistically they can't sustain the war for very much longer. The only question is how soon the Entente realise this, and whether they're willing to do a deal with the devil...

IMHO they will offering zero, except the recognition of the already acquired territory; anybody know that after Germany is beaten the next adversary will be Stalin.
THeir military situation is not so desperate to even consider that option and frankly it more probable that if they need to deal with a dictator they will prefer Benny as Italy is not so powerfull and frigthing or a menace for the Entente interest and in the end much more compatible with a quiet (more or less) co-existence with the Entente

Better than OTL 1950 in other words!

Not really, at least OTL he had this history of great war leader, the fame of saviour of Russia...here he is just a backstabbing dictator ready to come in conflict with any nation unlucky enough to border the URSS, basically a wannabe Hitler

 

[pdf27]

So Hitler fired the General Staff? Was he already C-in-C here? OTL he didn't take over that role until late 41/early 42.

Fired OKH, OKW are still in place. He wasn't yet CinC, although he probably will be very soon ITTL.

What happened to Von Brauchitsch?

Not much so far - he's essentially confined to his quarters so far, once Hitler has calmed down a bit he'll probably be wheeled out for another Downfall-style rant and then spend the rest of the war at home in retirement, most likely with the Gestapo keeping an eye on what he gets up to and who he sees. He hasn't done anything explicitly treasonous, just what Hitler sees as disloyal, so he's safe from the more extreme possibilities.

Germany is not in the position to bargain. They NEED the raw materials from the Soviets, and what the Soviets want in exchange is things like machine tools. They don't WANT finished goods, they want the ability to make them.

As for electricity, I imagine what was meant was things like high efficiency turbines, larger generators, and the like that Germany can likely build where the Soviets might not be able to.

Yep. Turbines for instance are a bit of a nightmare to build, needing specialist tooling and highly skilled labour. The other issue is that some things like dams are genuinely long lead-time items - no matter how much help they get from the Germans, it'll still take them 5 years to bring it into service. That's the other limit on the industrialisation of the Soviet Union, and one that is likely to shape how much of their own resources they can actually consume.

Umm... It will really depend on the Soviet actions in the next few years. Given their current actions (and, as pointed out, the Finns are much more clearly good guys vs the Soviets), given their continued support for Hitler, given their selling raw materials and trucks and stuff, given their invasion of Poland and the Baltics, it's going to be really hard for the Soviets to turn this around.

Yep. I certainly don't see any danger of Stalin being thought of as "Uncle Joe" by the British public, and realistically it's very hard not to see a new Cold War within a few years of the end of the TTL WW2. What is up for grabs is the shape of it and how it starts, not whether it comes into existence at all.

ITTL, we're still in the state where the USSR is (not quite) a co-belligerent with the Nazis (not the West), which was leading Britain and France to seriously consider Operation Pike (iOTL). Obviously, Britain/France aren't going to do that now, but unless Stalin moves fast, he's going to be shut out of the post-war deals.

I think that's obvious anyway - the only thing that made him part of them in OTL was the sheer size and power of the Red Army, plus a certain amount of naivete on the part of Roosevelt. Here, Roosevelt is not a party to whatever the postwar settlement will be, and the Red Army isn't seen as the colossus that it was in OTL 1945. That means he needs to hold a lot of territory to have any bargaining chips at all.

OT3H, the mention of 'West Poland' suggests to me strongly, that Stalin is going to jump really soon, because otherwise, he won't get even that much.

Don't remember mentioning that. In any case, that bit of the story isn't written yet even in outline form.

And the other nations will care of this...not in any meaningfull way. Stalin can have helped Hitler for any motive, even because in secret they were lovers, but for the rest of the continent, the communist nation was Germany silent patner that at the last minute decided to drop it.
Add to this the aggressive moves towards the baltic, Finland, Poland and Romania and no nation that border the URSS will feel very safe.

Of course not. Then again, they didn't feel terribly safe before the war in OTL either, and certainly didn't during the Cold War. I think trying to engineer a situation where the various states along the border of the Soviet Union are all in a peaceful, friendly relationship with them is a fool's errand unless they're all run by the Comintern (and even then, ask the Czechs, Hungarians and Poles how that felt in OTL)

IMHO they will offering zero, except the recognition of the already acquired territory; anybody know that after Germany is beaten the next adversary will be Stalin.
THeir military situation is not so desperate to even consider that option and frankly it more probable that if they need to deal with a dictator they will prefer Benny as Italy is not so powerfull and frigthing or a menace for the Entente interest and in the end much more compatible with a quiet (more or less) co-existence with the Entente.

The problem is that Italy can only really offer troops. The Soviets control the lifeline supporting the German economy - even without going to war they've got the ability to cut it, and doing so will mean that the German war machine has probably only got ~6 months of supplies left in it. That will save a LOT of Entente blood and treasure, since the alternative for them is destroying the German Army on the field of battle.

Not really, at least OTL he had this history of great war leader, the fame of saviour of Russia...here he is just a backstabbing dictator ready to come in conflict with any nation unlucky enough to border the URSS, basically a wannabe Hitler

Yeah, his reputation ITTL will be even worse than in OTL, particularly in Russia.

 

[lukedalton]

The problem is that Italy can only really offer troops. The Soviets control the lifeline supporting the German economy - even without going to war they've got the ability to cut it, and doing so will mean that the German war machine has probably only got ~6 months of supplies left in it. That will save a LOT of Entente blood and treasure, since the alternative for them is destroying the German Army on the field of battle.

Just the troops and the air force basically tip the balance of the war on the Entente side greatly, at this you need to add the position (basically the Germans need to relocate a lot of assets on the other side of the front to fight the italians) and more importantly the fact that any pact with Stalin mean give him more resources for the next round...and i doubt that anyone in both Paris and London think that this will not happen, while Italy is a much more limited player in the great scheme and one that can easily pointed towards Stalin.
IMHO, while beating Germany is the number one objective of the entente, limiting Stalin gain is the second.
Basically the Entente had the choice between dealing with a big devil that anybody know he will be the next adversary so to stop the german warmachine withtout much bloodsheed or deal with the little devil who is a much more limited menace and frankly you can negotiate with it so to open another front and overwhelm the German...spending italian blood for this

 

[Xgentis]

In any case if Germany look like it will go down Beny will get in to be in the post war talk and officially get Italy it's sphere of influence. That is what he wanted to do when he invaded France OTL (even if they didn't go very far) thinking the war will be over soon. This could be quite bloody if Beny underestimate the German opposition. The problem is that Italy is not strong enough to counter the Soviet if they make a move in Italy 's "spere".

 

[Alratan]

The problem is that Italy can only really offer troops. The Soviets control the lifeline supporting the German economy - even without going to war they've got the ability to cut it, and doing so will mean that the German war machine has probably only got ~6 months of supplies left in it. That will save a LOT of Entente blood and treasure, since the alternative for them is destroying the German Army on the field of battle.

The problem is that Stalin can't credibly offer to cut the German lifeline. Why would the Entente believe him if he said he was going to, when he's obviously using the Germans as a proxy to wear them down?

I think the Entente also recognise that the German army needs to be destroyed in the field whatever happens to prevent another stab in the back myth.

 

[Xgentis]

Why would Stalin even cut the German lifeline ? If anything he would increaze it to keep the war going as long as possible to weaken the west. So that he could bring the workers glorious communist revolution in the west with minimal resistance.

 

[naraht]

Deal of the Century...

Italian DOW on Germany
in exchange for
British Somaliland and French Djibouti.

Would the Entente offer?
Would the Italians accept (given the fact that half of the way that Benny got into power was over Italian anger over not getting everything from the secret treaty that got them into WWI)?
How much of the German Army would get moved to the Austrian/Italian border?
Would the Entente (specifically the British) *care* if the RM tried to help in the North Sea?