A Blunted Sickle

[ObssesedNuker]

The problem in this scenario it's that Stalin will never learn that lesson ITTl (and others btw like the fact that he is not a military genius) due the fact that Barbarossa will not happen and the various problem of the Red Army due to his purge will not really emerge sure there were reform after the winter war

I like how in the same paragraph that you declare that the problems from the purge did not emerge before the German invasion and at the same time give an example where the problems from the purge emerged before the German invasion.

- Joseph Stalin will probably live some years more,

More like months. Although as you note that still might lead to a purge leap-frogging off the Doctors Plot.

- Without the 'Great Patriotic War' Stalin and communist legacy will be much but much more tainted;

Externally, yes. Internally... well, that depends on whether destalinization kicks in or not. Even then, the emphasis will be on tainting Stalin and not communism or the Soviet Union.

This can have consequence regarding the number of people willing to pass information to Moscow

For the Cold War period. For World War 2, the vast majority of Soviet spies were die-hard Soviet supporters even before the Germans invaded.

and while the URSS can obtain, more or less, the same result without it...it cut time and cost having that kind of information,

And having all the extra industry and manpower will likely cut time even further.

In this TL I doubt the Armoured Corps will appear attractive enough to start yet another reorganisation (on top of the purges and the expansion programme). In OTL as an example the reorganisation meant that the artillery tractors had been removed from many of the infantry Divisions and allocated to the armoured formations, but by mid 1941 not really deployed yet. This was an important factor in explaining why the Germans captured so many guns and why the Soviet counterattacks were so inefficient.

Eh, I kind of doubt that. They actually have a more realistic picture ITTL then they did IOTL: concentrated armor can achieve results but also can be countered. In all likelyhood they'll be much more realistic with the organization of the reformed mechanized corps and less rushed about the whole thing.

In this context I guess the Red army will be in better condition, but still plagued by shortage of experienced officers and bad maintenance of materiel.

Shortage of experienced officers, yes (although this isn't the same thing as a shortage of adequate officers). I think maintenance standards will improve in the winter of 1941-1942.

By mid 1942 it will however have reached about 500 (!!!) reasonably well equipped Divisions and with few vacant officer positions. Not experienced veterans but people having had some time to get an idea about the job.

This will not be an army wheer you can repeatedly encircle men by the hundreds of thousands but OTOH it will not be capable of rushing quickly forward into central Europe. It will roll slowly forward like a huge steamroller and if you want to stop it you need a better steamroller.

In all likelyhood, yes. Although the lessons learned as that steamroller moves forward will be rapidly applied.

but the question is if Stalin really can keep the USSR in a long attritional war initiated by Stalin himself.

Well given that Stalin would only be jumping in to play vulture on a already clearly-defeated Germany, he won't be committing the USSR to a long-attritional war... only a quick-if-bloody grind westwards that flattens whatever remaining German defenses they have left in the east by that point followed by shaking hands (or, more accurately, stop and harshly glare at one another) with the Western Allies somewhere between Warsaw and the Oder.

 

[lukedalton]

I like how in the same paragraph that you declare that the problems from the purge did not emerge before the German invasion and at the same time give an example where the problems from the purge emerged before the German invasion.

I'm sorry and you are right i will try to be more exact, the Winter War clearly demonstrated the problem of the Red Army and reform were done to try to resolve it; but without the Nazi menace hammering in the mind of Stalin that not only he is not a military genius but not keeping some competent officers in case serious problem arise he will continue to the same pattern.
So the Red Army will be a giant war machine...but not an efficent one or at least will remain well below his potentiality as political reliability will be always preferred to efficiency and frankly purge don't really make any good to profesionality and morale.

For Stalin live longer, as said the war was very stresfull and had probably caused an higher consumption of alchool and cigar, without that...we risk a sligtly demented Stalin in control of the URSS.

Well people like Pontecorvo and Fuchs (just to make some name) can be easily see how Stalin and Hitler are easily similar regarding politics and frankly the struggle of the Soviet Union against the Nazi was a good motivator for continuing giving them information...at least it what people considered spy at the time keep saying as motivation.

While continuing having an industrial base and more manpower will be an enormous boone, this don't mean that the Soviet will not need to play catch up with Western tech as OTL

 

[ObssesedNuker]

but without the Nazi menace hammering in the mind of Stalin that not only he is not a military genius but not keeping some competent officers in case serious problem arise he will continue to the same pattern.

In the long-term. For the short-term, Stalin does want a competent military to exploit any opportunities from the destabilized international situation. Once the international situation as stabilized though, Stalin is going to become more interested in maintaining his power then expanding it. And that indeed will mean some mass purges, although I don't think we'll ever see anything on the scale of 1938 again. Even what he was intending the Doctor's Plot to involve into apparently wasn't going to be that messy.

For Stalin live longer, as said the war was very stressful and had probably caused an higher consumption of alchool and cigar,

Stalin was a chain-smoker during the entirety of his adult life and a prolific drinker since after the Civil War. He actually reduced his alcoholic intake during World War 2 so he could make decisions more soberly (although even then he could not resist throwing these giant formal parties where the vodka flowed freely after major victories). That much smoking and drinking at the age of 74 is going to do you in. Hell, he was already suffering from minor strokes by the late-30s.

 

[pdf27]

Finally caught up with this TL and it's as glorious as ever. I'm eagerly awaiting more grinding tank and artillery battles in France and the Franco-British counterattack. War of machines anyone?

That's the Anglo-French plan. The Germans are trying to fight that war, but they're chronically short of the industrial resources they need to do so, while the Entente have both their own resources and those of the US. Right now the two sides are broadly in balance, but this isn't going to remain for long - the industrial balance is rapidly tipping away from the Germans.

Later on instead of simply killing the good officers he relegated them to insignificant military functions and posts where they could not plot against him, but where they could be used again as the situation requires.

Yes. I can't see him learning that particular lesson ITTL - in OTL it took a long series of catastrophes for him to understand it, here the Soviet Union is doing very nicely indeed and their only reverse to date is failing to grab Bukovina from the Romanians

The problem in this scenario it's that Stalin will never learn that lesson ITTl (and others btw like the fact that he is not a military genius) due the fact that Barbarossa will not happen and the various problem of the Red Army due to his purge will not really emerge, sure there were reform after the winter war but Stalin modus operandi needed some existential menace like the Nazi horde to be changed...otherwise we will have some periodic purge that even if not big as the first will be not all that good for morale and professionalism.

Ummm... sorta-kinda. Stalin wasn't totally addicted to purges so far as I can see, and as I understand it from other purges in other societies they tend to burn themselves out over time anyway. You also can't assume that the army will always be the target of any purges - the power of the General Secretary of the CPSU rested on the three pillars of the Party, KGB and Army - if you want to purge any one you need the support of the others. So it might well have happened that a purge of the Party or KGB would instead have followed, rather than more bloodletting in the army.

Stalin as any dictator don't need an efficient army only something that look efficient and scary even because he don't really care about the overall loss; in OTL Uncle Joe found himself the proud owner of one of the most powerfull and competent army in the world...but only with a lot of trials and errors and due to fighting an enemy hellbent on the total annihilation of the URSS and his population without this incentive well, why change?

Remember that leadership is only one part of having an effective army - size and equipment also count, and the Red Army is getting lots of nice kit and not suffering the huge losses of OTL.

- Joseph Stalin will probably live some years more, sure he was a workhaloic that drink and smoke too much, still commanding the Soviet Union for 4 years in the most brutal war ever fought took his tool (and augment the consumption of alchool), after all even the other leaders had seen their health deteriorating and honestly even a couple of months more can have consequence (see the 'Doctor's Plot').

Then again, look at how he died - fishy at least. We'll never know if he was murdered, but it was certainly a possibility (and he was paranoid about exactly that for years) - and critically when the German invasion happened the Politburo knew they were dead without him. If there isn't an invasion, that uniting factor that kept him in unquestioned power isn't there - so he might well face some serious plots (and note that historically purges have often ultimately consumed those who initiated them, in one way or another).

Without the 'Great Patriotic War' Stalin and communist legacy will be much but much more tainted; hell even here the biggest (and sometime only) justification over Stalin industrialization plan was: Without it the Nazi had won. No Barbarossa and what we have: Famine, Purge, forced relocation, etc. etc....better not forget that the Nazi, before they showed their true color (basically 5 second after their arrive) were well received by the local population

And remember how Khrushchev described Stalin at the twentieth party congress? In OTL that was pretty controversial because of Stalin's place as the saviour of the Soviet Union during the Great Patriotic War - without the war, he's much easier to dismiss as an aberration and not a true communist.

Regarding the URSS after the war, well for first all the 'soft' power she had in OTL here is not existent, no big communist in Italy or other part of West Europe, no years of propaganda in the west in their favor, more difficult time in supporting the anti-colonial movement, no aura of awe and invincibility due to having beaten the nazi; instead we have a nation who's seen as aggressive as Germany (Finland, Poland, Romania and the Baltic...for now) and that had supported the Hitler regime with material vital to their war effort so except for the real true believer the soviet union will not have much external support. This can have consequence regarding the number of people willing to pass information to Moscow and while the URSS can obtain, more or less, the same result without it...it cut time and cost having that kind of information, not counting that any official tech transfer happened in OTL here well...i doubt that will exist, sure the deal with the German help, but in the end is all technology that come in Soviet hand even in OTL.

Counterbalancing that, they aren't being faced by American troops in Europe either, or a NATO that comprises pretty much all of the Europe they don't control. Instead you're looking at some sort of Anglo-French alliance, with some others and with a somewhat remote US that is also deeply anti-Soviet but unwilling to enter into alliances. So in absolute terms their soft power is weaker, but so is that of their opposition - and their economy/military potential is vastly greater than OTL.

Second, his strategic situation is different, gone are the start point in East Europe, here it will be more probably just OTL Poland and Slovackia, instead hostile nation directly border the motherland and in the north there is an armed and not really friendly (I will not put too much 'importance' over Swedish traditionally neutrality, it become real ideologically during the 60's, till now it was more due to purely pragmatic consideration and OTL demonstrated that they were not above secret alliance in case real trouble arise), so while they rightly be considered a powerfull menace and a great power in their own, the level of fear for the red menace will be lower than OTL (expecially if China don't go full Red).

Not so sure about that - the fear will start earlier (the Soviets were never "on our side" but always allied to the Nazis), and they don't have the OTL domination of Eastern Europe to compare it to. We're still in a world where Operation Pike was seriously considered, rather than one where Stalin is "Uncle Joe".

In OTL USSR the Red Army by mid 1941 was in the midst of yet another major reorganisation as armour and mobile units were concentrateded in Armoured Corps - much inspired by the German successes in the OTL campaign in France.

Well, a reorganisation is quite likely but the lessons will be different. I'd say they'll be concentrating on the need for all arms to work together, and on the requirement for a lot of artillery (something that fits well in with Russian doctrine going back a very long time!). You're also likely to see the emergence of the Motor-Rifle division very much earlier - they won't have missed the fact that a large number of surplus Red Army trucks were enough to enable the Germans to sustain an offensive that they would have been unable to a year earlier.

This will not be an army wheer you can repeatedly encircle men by the hundreds of thousands but OTOH it will not be capable of rushing quickly forward into central Europe. It will roll slowly forward like a huge steamroller and if you want to stop it you need a better steamroller.

That depends when - I'd suggest that motorisation is likely to be a high priority, but the sheer size of the army means that this will happen slowly. The war may well be over by the time this process is complete.

Right now he can dictate the trade terms to the Germans, and see his perceived imperialist enemies in the West batter themselves to utter exhaustion while Soviet Union grows stronger in peacetime conditions. There seems to be little need or perceived benefits from rocking the boat by escalating the war, when it is in Soviet interests to keep it going as long as possible.

True right now - but if Germany looks like collapsing I could see him grabbing the rump of Poland and installing a puppet regime. Manchuria is another potential target, if things go badly for Japan - he was certainly an opportunist and there are plenty of potential land grabs out there for him.

 

[lukedalton]

Ummm... sorta-kinda. Stalin wasn't totally addicted to purges so far as I can see, and as I understand it from other purges in other societies they tend to burn themselves out over time anyway. You also can't assume that the army will always be the target of any purges - the power of the General Secretary of the CPSU rested on the three pillars of the Party, KGB and Army - if you want to purge any one you need the support of the others. So it might well have happened that a purge of the Party or KGB would instead have followed, rather than more bloodletting in the army.

Still they are a distrutptive effort that basically weaken the overall nation for...nothing.

Remember that leadership is only one part of having an effective army - size and equipment also count, and the Red Army is getting lots of nice kit and not suffering the huge losses of OTL.

Sure, but professionality and leaderships are the winning factor unless your kit are that advanced or your size is humongous. Sure the Red Army had the size but in that case, how can take the amount of loss...when the fighting is not to defend the Rodina from a enemy hellbent to basically exterminate the local population but to simply go to a conquest spree

Then again, look at how he died - fishy at least. We'll never know if he was murdered, but it was certainly a possibility (and he was paranoid about exactly that for years) - and critically when the German invasion happened the Politburo knew they were dead without him. If there isn't an invasion, that uniting factor that kept him in unquestioned power isn't there - so he might well face some serious plots (and note that historically purges have often ultimately consumed those who initiated them, in one way or another).

I don't know, sure it look a little suspicious, still the men as said earlier smoked and drink too much, not trust doctor and the war was very stresfull...so is overall health is not too good and when i say that he live longer i mean a couple of years, three tops due to the mentioned problem. IMHO is death is more due to his job and lifestile than to any attempt by Beria to poison him,

And remember how Khrushchev described Stalin at the twentieth party congress? In OTL that was pretty controversial because of Stalin's place as the saviour of the Soviet Union during the Great Patriotic War - without the war, he's much easier to dismiss as an aberration and not a true communist.

The problem is that Khrushchev and the other will be there or due to the absence of war will be purged and ITTL the goverment of the Soviet Union can go to someone that's not too much different from Stalin.

Counterbalancing that, they aren't being faced by American troops in Europe either, or a NATO that comprises pretty much all of the Europe they don't control. Instead you're looking at some sort of Anglo-French alliance, with some others and with a somewhat remote US that is also deeply anti-Soviet but unwilling to enter into alliances. So in absolute terms their soft power is weaker, but so is that of their opposition - and their economy/military potential is vastly greater than OTL.

Potential yes, and this is the magic word potential...it's not that dictatorships in general really are that efficient and reach their full potential. Regarding Europe, both Anglo-French and Italian led group will not particulary like each other, but both side know that in Europe, at least, they need each other or the Big Scary Russian Bear will eat each separately so they will, at least. not try to obstacolate each other.

Not so sure about that - the fear will start earlier (the Soviets were never "on our side" but always allied to the Nazis), and they don't have the OTL domination of Eastern Europe to compare it to. We're still in a world where Operation Pike was seriously considered, rather than one where Stalin is "Uncle Joe".

??

 

[Cash]

There's a saying that keeps bouncing round my head: No revolution outlives the revolutionaries. The national unity and shared agony of World War II gave Soviet communism a second life. Without Barbarossa and all that followed -- including the new generation of Russians committed to the ideology that had "saved" the motherland -- Stalin's tenure may well mark the end of revolutionary Russia. What follows? Perhaps Gorbachev-style reforms and a more open society, perhaps an internal collapse, perhaps some final spasm of war.

 

[Hashoosh]

There's a saying that keeps bouncing round my head: No revolution outlives the revolutionaries. The national unity and shared agony of World War II gave Soviet communism a second life. Without Barbarossa and all that followed -- including the new generation of Russians committed to the ideology that had "saved" the motherland -- Stalin's tenure may well mark the end of revolutionary Russia. What follows? Perhaps Gorbachev-style reforms and a more open society, perhaps an internal collapse, perhaps some final spasm of war.

Probably Sino-style (of our timeline) reforms once someone sane comes along, as the world won't be as polarized as our own, thanks to American isolation and the weakness of the two entente powers.

 

[Scherzo]

Was thinking about Post-War Germany Vis-a-Vis Soviet Union; I'm beginning to think the Soviets wouldn't even be a co-belligerent against Hitler so much as Soviet forces quietly moving into Western Poland as German control collapses. Stalin simply doesn't have much to gain from his Large but grossly inefficient army grinding up against the Germans even if it would be a victory. I wonder if Germany keeps Silesia, Pomerania, and East Prussia in this timeline.

At anyrate, I was thinking Stalin, instead of fighting the Germans in detail to create something like the GDR, I think he'd play his cards to foster internal Communists movements in Entente occupied Germany. With the Right Wing groups grossly discredited after WWII and the Holocaust, I see there being a real threat of communist revolution becoming popular.

 

[Scientist Shan]

TTL George Orwell

Any ideas how Animal Farm and 1984 are going to be different?

 

[pdf27]

More interestingly, how much longer might he live ITTL? Streptomycin is likely to be widely available a bit earlier for a start...

 

[lukedalton]

More interestingly, how much longer might he live ITTL? Streptomycin is likely to be widely available a bit earlier for a start...

Without the war, two years, three tops due to no stress related to the conflict...still he really have a lifestyle not really healthy and his kind of job is really stresfull even in the best condition.

 

[pdf27]

Without the war, two years, three tops due to no stress related to the conflict...still he really have a lifestyle not really healthy and his kind of job is really stresfull even in the best condition.

Point is that he was relatively young (37 at this point ITTL) and eventually died of TB. Notably, he was avoiding doctors at least in part because of a worry about cost, and only started Streptomycin shortly before the NHS came into being. If the NHS comes about earlier (and with a shorter war that's probable) he will most likely be treated earlier and so remain in better health for longer.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Any ideas how Animal Farm and 1984 are going to be different?

Wasn’t that based on the Authors first hand experiences in Spain during the Spanish Civil war?

So Experiances prior to this POD

 

[lukedalton]

Point is that he was relatively young (37 at this point ITTL) and eventually died of TB. Notably, he was avoiding doctors at least in part because of a worry about cost, and only started Streptomycin shortly before the NHS came into being. If the NHS comes about earlier (and with a shorter war that's probable) he will most likely be treated earlier and so remain in better health for longer.

Well, this is more my field of work, Stalin was born in 1878 so has already a certain age and more than TB his real big problem it's his lifestyle, he was a workhaolic and a heavy drinker (i don't really remember if he was also a smoker) and in general even in a normal day his job is really stresfull and demanding (look how Obama seem much more older now)...frankly i'm always been amazed that he get so old (meaning that he had a real strong constitution)
Without the war we can image a more 'relaxed' pace of work and a diminished consumption of alcholic...still at most i can give him 3 years tops as frankly hearth and liver will had to pay for all the overwork that they had faced in the years before and Stalin don't seem to me neither the man who cut back his work or someone who listen to his doctor regarding changing his habit.

 

[Ingsoc]

Well, this is more my field of work, Stalin was born in 1878 so has already a certain age and more than TB his real big problem it's his lifestyle, he was a workhaolic and a heavy drinker (i don't really remember if he was also a smoker) and in general even in a normal day his job is really stresfull and demanding (look how Obama seem much more older now)...frankly i'm always been amazed that he get so old (meaning that he had a real strong constitution)
Without the war we can image a more 'relaxed' pace of work and a diminished consumption of alcholic...still at most i can give him 3 years tops as frankly hearth and liver will had to pay for all the overwork that they had faced in the years before and Stalin don't seem to me neither the man who cut back his work or someone who listen to his doctor regarding changing his habit.

I think you're talking at cross purposes - pdf is talking about George Orwell living longer (hence the reference to the NHS and him being relatively young) and you're talking about Josef Stalin.

 

[Hashoosh]

Wasn’t that based on the Authors first hand experiences in Spain during the Spanish Civil war?

So Experiances prior to this POD

I thought Animal Farm was supposed to a pretty clear allegory for the Russian Revolution. And 1984 doesn't really fit with SCW either, at least in my understanding of it.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

That depends when - I'd suggest that motorization is likely to be a high priority, but the sheer size of the army means that this will happen slowly. The war may well be over by the time this process is complete.

I'm not sure about that. The Soviet number of non-combat motor vehicles in service with the Red Army IOTL June 1941 was 170,000 trucks with another 240,000 to be mobilized for service in the event of war from the civilian economy giving a total of 410,000. ITTL, that number is 310,000 because of those 100,000 trucks the Soviets sold to the Germans but by 1942 it will go up to around 450,000 given that Soviet truck production averaged 140,000 a year from 1937 onwards.

For comparison: that is 40,000 more trucks then the Soviets had IOTL mid-1943 for an army about a million men bigger then what they would have by ITTL mid-1942. The catch, of course, is that it would take a few months to mobilize all of those trucks from the civilian economy so Stalin would have to make a decision months in advance of going to war with Germany.

 

[pdf27]

For comparison: that is 40,000 more trucks then the Soviets had IOTL mid-1943 for an army about a million men bigger then what they would have by ITTL mid-1942. The catch, of course, is that it would take a few months to mobilize all of those trucks from the civilian economy so Stalin would have to make a decision months in advance of going to war with Germany.

It's nice, but it isn't nearly enough - for comparison the Canadians built over half a million Canadian Military Pattern trucks and over 800,000 vehicles in total, alongside British production and lend-lease vehicles for an army of somewhere in the region of 3 million men. That's roughly what it takes to fully mechanise an army - somewhere around 1 truck for every 4 men, allowing for losses!
That means to get a fully mechanised army, the Soviets need to build getting on for a million trucks, in addition to all the other vehicles and equipment an army needs. In a war of choice they aren't going to want to cripple the civilian economy, so they've in reality got around 10% of the motor pool they need for a fully mechanised army. They can still deploy very big mechanised formations, but doing their entire army is going to take the better part of a decade (remembering that trucks don't last forever in civilian life) and a lot of money.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

They can still deploy very big mechanised formations, but doing their entire army is going to take the better part of a decade (remembering that trucks don't last forever in civilian life) and a lot of money.

Well the mechanized formations will most likely be ready by 1942 and the combination of large-mechanized formations followed on by large infantry formations served both the Soviets and Germans entirely satisfactorily IOTL. The Soviets will probably wait until the post-war for complete motorization.

 

[Obfuscated]

It's nice, but it isn't nearly enough - for comparison the Canadians built over half a million Canadian Military Pattern trucks and over 800,000 vehicles in total, alongside British production and lend-lease vehicles for an army of somewhere in the region of 3 million men. That's roughly what it takes to fully mechanise an army - somewhere around 1 truck for every 4 men, allowing for losses!
That means to get a fully mechanised army, the Soviets need to build getting on for a million trucks, in addition to all the other vehicles and equipment an army needs. In a war of choice they aren't going to want to cripple the civilian economy, so they've in reality got around 10% of the motor pool they need for a fully mechanised army. They can still deploy very big mechanised formations, but doing their entire army is going to take the better part of a decade (remembering that trucks don't last forever in civilian life) and a lot of money.

In theory the soviets can do this easier than a western country can: As everything is stateowned it is easier to establish controls and maintenance regiments (and would you at who does that - the former conscripts tasked exactly these tasks in the army. What chance!) to maintain the civilian motor pool.