A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

[naraht]

To be fair I probably did write that in about 2018 or something ridiculous. Note to self, really should write faster.


Fun for the audience, yes. Much harder for the author however!


I believe that's known as "damning with faint praise"!


They aren't going to wait around though. In 24-48 hours the inhabitants of the Reich Chancellery and the Bendlerblock are going to wake up and find British tanks on their lawns.


Yep, Most of the juniors just want to go home and the seniors are practicing their Yodelling skills to pretend that they are just locals.


Not especially - they're still limited by motor fuel above all else, and East Prussia is a hell of a long way from Hamburg through very recently occupied territory.


Nearest source of coal is Upper Silesia. Getting that transported shouldn't be all that hard - the railways still exist and will have been set up to move the coal pre-war since the mines are largely in what was pre-war Polish territory. However, they're massively disorganised by the demands of the German war economy so will take a little while to untangle.
The ZWZ being under the control of the Sikorski government which was until recently in exile isn't going to tolerate private revenge. They now own the judicial system, remember, and the British are more than happy to see Germans guilty of war crimes go through the Polish civil courts. With Stalin being a major preoccupation, they want to portray the image of a robust government as fast and strongly as possible. Additionally, any British troops between them and the RKKA are clearly beneficial to them.


Thanks. I've not gone away. but writing has been very hard.


Ran out of time. The Soviet system isn't terribly flexible, so the Warsaw Uprising and following Entente offensive across Germany caught them by surprise. Note that Stalin is also not a gambler - he's won massively out of WW2 while taking very few risks, and isn't minded to gamble those gains away in exchange for a large number of troublesome Poles.
Note also that Germany has collapsed completely in a couple of weeks - that's only possible because the Entente had massive armies in the field ready to go and Germany was hurt far worse than anybody realised.

In terms of Berlin, in a day or two there are definitely going to be tanks on lawns, the question is with dozens of tanks on lawns, how many German Soldiers are going to fight to the death to save (I don't remember who is leading Germany right now, is it Goering?) . The original Vorbunker does exist, the Fuhrerbunker 1944 expansion doesn't. I meant whether the British would simply bomb/use artillery on the areas that wouldn't surrender, but I'm not sure that anything is accurate enough from the skies yet.


I *guess* the Austrians would prefer surrendering to the French than the Hungarians, but I'm not sure that it is a significant difference.

As for coal, I don't know if Poland pre-war was a net coal importer or a net coal exporter, but I think the coal is all in the areas that the Soviets didn't take, so they are more likely to be able to provide for themselves. And I doubt the Germans would have had time to seriously wreck them considering that 2 weeks ago the coal out of there was going to Germany.

The British (/Commonwealth/Empire) Army's instructions in Poland seem to be "Advance down this major road, in each city ask the ZWZ leadership/mayor whether they (or a town nearby) need help with the Germans begin stupid, provide immediate help as they can , have troops that aren't at the tip of the spear stay and help longer term if necessary and keep going. When you see the RKKA, diffuse North and South as needed to provide a tripwire along the entire Soviet border and by that time, London will have further orders.

 

[JWilly48519]

The British (/Commonwealth/Empire) Army's instructions in Poland seem to be "Advance down this major road, in each city ask the ZWZ leadership
/mayor whether they (or a town nearby) need help with the Germans begin stupid, provide immediate help as they can , have troops that aren't at the tip of the spear stay and help longer term if necessary and keep going. When you see the RKKA, diffuse North and South as needed to provide a tripwire along the entire Soviet border and by that time, London will have further orders.

During a military advance through disorganized-enemy-abandoned territory with civilian government and commerce attempting to re-establish themselves, the advancing military forces necessarily have to make clear to the civilians that all local governments are temporarily subject to military control, particularly in regard to police powers and transportation priorities. Military convoys and other vehicular movement, both force-units and supplies, have absolute priority on the roads and streets; military police will maintain armed patrols and checkpoints, and will use lethal force whenever presented with a possibility of armed enemy personnel whether in uniform or not, and in any instance of attempted theft of military ordnance or other supplies; there is a strict night curfew except with a military escort; and civilian interactions with military personnel are prohibited except with a military permit. Other transportation infrastructure...railroads, airports, navigable water...equally are under sole military control.

Without a clear understanding that those are the absolute rules, military logistics for the advancing forces will break down irretrievably. No wartime military force is organized enough to operate with civilian control of its rear areas...especially with the potential for roaming armed enemy personnel.

 

[pdf27]

Hmm, it seems strange to me that Stalin wasn't ready to take advantage of eventual crumbling of Germany. After all, all he has to do is to mop weak German forces in Poland and "liberate" as much as possible of Poland.

There's two issues with this:

1. Before the Entente offensive kicked off nobody really thought that Germany was on the verge of collapse. The British and French were waiting for the weather to improve and planning on a spring campaign, and the Soviets were planning to wait until they started theirs before stabbing the Germans in the back. This is where we come to a structural weakness in the RKKA - they weren't really full-time soldiers in peacetime but got sent to other tasks when not needed. So if they aren't going to war for a few months, they won't spend the whole time ready to go.
2. The whole offensive only kicked off 18 days ago, on Christmas Day. The Central Military Commission met on the 2nd of January, and were given orders to seize Klaipėda but that's it - they didn't think they were ready to take on East Prussia at short notice and Poland is significantly more of a worry because of the ZWZ.

If the logistics don't follow and the Russians wind up in a shooting war with the English, it would endanger all of Stalin's gains.

Again, what's in it for Stalin? A bunch of troublesome Poles (very troublesome as they've got control of big chunks of the country without outside help) is the upside, risk of war with the British and French - who have just crushed the Germans in pretty rapid time - is the downside. I just can't see him going for it, particularly in a pre-Barbarossa world where memories of losing the Polish-Soviet war are fresh (particularly for Stalin personally) and they don't really see an urgent need for a buffer zone.

As for coal, I don't know if Poland pre-war was a net coal importer or a net coal exporter, but I think the coal is all in the areas that the Soviets didn't take, so they are more likely to be able to provide for themselves. And I doubt the Germans would have had time to seriously wreck them considering that 2 weeks ago the coal out of there was going to Germany.

Poland was a significant net exporter in the 1930s - https://hansard.parliament.uk/commo...1a8-77141bbf112d/GermanAndPolishCoal(Imports)

During a military advance through disorganized-enemy-abandoned territory with civilian government and commerce attempting to re-establish themselves, the advancing military forces necessarily have to make clear to the civilians that all local governments are temporarily subject to military control, particularly in regard to police powers and transportation priorities. Military convoys and other vehicular movement, both force-units and supplies, have absolute priority on the roads and streets; military police will maintain armed patrols and checkpoints, and will use lethal force whenever presented with a possibility of armed enemy personnel whether in uniform or not, and in any instance of attempted theft of military ordnance or other supplies; there is a strict night curfew except with a military escort; and civilian interactions with military personnel are prohibited except with a military permit. Other transportation infrastructure...railroads, airports, navigable water...equally are under sole military control.

Without a clear understanding that those are the absolute rules, military logistics for the advancing forces will break down irretrievably. No wartime military force is organized enough to operate with civilian control of its rear areas...especially with the potential for roaming armed enemy personnel.

That's much easier in Poland - the ZWZ will attach a couple of local policemen to the MP patrol, along with anyone they can find to translate. This isn't a case of conflicting priorities - right now everybody wants to support the advancing British units so it's only a matter of organising them correctly. This is something the civilians are actually very well set up to do, for instance with the railways.

 

[naraht]

If the logistics don't follow and the Russians wind up in a shooting war with the English, it would endanger all of Stalin's gains.

A shooting war with the English won't be a problem, but once the *Scots* get involved then Stalin is in trouble.

There *may* be enough in the OoB to determine whether (for example) there are any Scottish units in East Prussia, but I doubt the author is interested in "Campaign for North Africa" level of information.

 

[naraht]

There's two issues with this:

1. Before the Entente offensive kicked off nobody really thought that Germany was on the verge of collapse. The British and French were waiting for the weather to improve and planning on a spring campaign, and the Soviets were planning to wait until they started theirs before stabbing the Germans in the back. This is where we come to a structural weakness in the RKKA - they weren't really full-time soldiers in peacetime but got sent to other tasks when not needed. So if they aren't going to war for a few months, they won't spend the whole time ready to go.
2. The whole offensive only kicked off 18 days ago, on Christmas Day. The Central Military Commission met on the 2nd of January, and were given orders to seize Klaipėda but that's it - they didn't think they were ready to take on East Prussia at short notice and Poland is significantly more of a worry because of the ZWZ.

Again, what's in it for Stalin? A bunch of troublesome Poles (very troublesome as they've got control of big chunks of the country without outside help) is the upside, risk of war with the British and French - who have just crushed the Germans in pretty rapid time - is the downside. I just can't see him going for it, particularly in a pre-Barbarossa world where memories of losing the Polish-Soviet war are fresh (particularly for Stalin personally) and they don't really see an urgent need for a buffer zone.


Poland was a significant net exporter in the 1930s - https://hansard.parliament.uk/commo...1a8-77141bbf112d/GermanAndPolishCoal(Imports)


That's much easier in Poland - the ZWZ will attach a couple of local policemen to the MP patrol, along with anyone they can find to translate. This isn't a case of conflicting priorities - right now everybody wants to support the advancing British units so it's only a matter of organising them correctly. This is something the civilians are actually very well set up to do, for instance with the railways.

If the British and French had waited until Spring, the Soviets might have gotten everything up to the Oder...

I'm still a little unclear as to whether the Western edge of what the USSR grabbed is east or west of what the Polish /USSR border ended up iOTL.

Looks like most of the mines for Good Coal are up against the Czech border, but Lignite around some of the rest of the country.

Like the Belgians, there might be a small amount of difference in methodology of how to get Germans out of Polish culturally important buildings...

 

[DracoLazarus]

If the British and French had waited until Spring, the Soviets might have gotten everything up to the Oder...

I'm still a little unclear as to whether the Western edge of what the USSR grabbed is east or west of what the Polish /USSR border ended up iOTL.

Looks like most of the mines for Good Coal are up against the Czech border, but Lignite around some of the rest of the country.

Like the Belgians, there might be a small amount of difference in methodology of how to get Germans out of Polish culturally important buildings...

somewhat West, IOTL the Soviets gave back Bialystok.

 

[neopeius]

somewhat West, IOTL the Soviets gave back Bialystok.

So The Producers is still a possibility in this timeline...

 

[Mister Mister]

If the logistics don't follow and the Russians wind up in a shooting war with the English, it would endanger all of Stalin's gains.

Allright, but the operation also gives him the opportunity to:
a) ends as victor in conflict, not semi-collaborationist with Germany, b) gives him leverage about non-returning eastern parts of Poland, he can allways return western Poland, for the price of keeping the East, c) it allowes him to possibly influence the composition of future Polish Government.

 

[pdf27]

Allright, but the operation also gives him the opportunity to:
a) ends as victor in conflict, not semi-collaborationist with Germany, b) gives him leverage about non-returning eastern parts of Poland, he can always return western Poland, for the price of keeping the East, c) it allowes him to possibly influence the composition of future Polish Government.

That's really of minimal value:

1. Stalin is a Communist, and believes that the Capitalist countries are inimically opposed to the Soviet Union. That means no matter what the capitalist countries are going to be against him, even if he helps them win a war.
2. He can just not return the East anyway. The British and French didn't declare war on him in 1939 when he invaded, why are they going to do so now? Negotiating about the status of the rest of Poland only opens up the risk he'll be pushed to do something about the East.
3. Yes, but is that really worth going to war for this when the State Security apparatus can do so in other ways with much lower cost and risk?

 

[ejpsan]

IOTL it was the German military and not the remnants of the German (Nazi) government that surrendered to the WAllies and the Soviet Union in order to prevent another "Stabbed-in- the- Back" myth from forming as it did after WW I when it was the civilian German government that signed the Armistice but not the heads of the German military, even though it was at the insistence Hindenburg and von Ludendorff.
ITTL, I think that this will also happen as the Allies will not recognize any government that still exists and will demand that only the heads of the military have the authority to order the surrender of any remaining units in the field.

 

[Salamander]

TTL's conspiracy theorists, both official and unofficial, are going to have a field day over the whereabouts of the Evil Charlie Chaplin Look-a-like.

 

[Errolwi]

As for coal, I don't know if Poland pre-war was a net coal importer or a net coal exporter, but I think the coal is all in the areas that the Soviets didn't take, so they are more likely to be able to provide for themselves. And I doubt the Germans would have had time to seriously wreck them considering that 2 weeks ago the coal out of there was going to Germany.

As I've just learned, pre-war the French financed a rail line to export the coal in the SW out from Gdynia (next to Danzig, but in Poland).

Discussion of OTL's makeup of the Polish rail networks at embedded timestamp.

Railways in German occupied Eastern Europe

Railways in German occupied Eastern EuropeWith H.G.W. DaviePart of Railways Week on WW2TVhttps://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLDG3XyxGI5lBhsLZQ01nGwHNgqGRvXwZx...

www.youtube.com

 

[torten]

IOTL it was the German military and not the remnants of the German (Nazi) government that surrendered to the WAllies and the Soviet Union in order to prevent another "Stabbed-in- the- Back" myth from forming as it did after WW I when it was the civilian German government that signed the Armistice but not the heads of the German military, even though it was at the insistence Hindenburg and von Ludendorff.
ITTL, I think that this will also happen as the Allies will not recognize any government that still exists and will demand that only the heads of the military have the authority to order the surrender of any remaining units in the field.

Enough German field armies have surrendered or are in the process of surrendering that it is unlikely that another stab in the back myth will develop, that and the sheer and utter collapse of Germany with fighting and enemy armies on German soil.

With the Allies in Berlin, a surrender by the German government and OKW is likely within the next 48 hours, so the war is likely over by the 14th or so.

 

[cailet]

It's taken me a while to get this far! Just want to say congrats to pdf for some fantastic work and to echo good wishes for health and happiness!

 

[naraht]

Enough German field armies have surrendered or are in the process of surrendering that it is unlikely that another stab in the back myth will develop, that and the sheer and utter collapse of Germany with fighting and enemy armies on German soil.

With the Allies in Berlin, a surrender by the German government and OKW is likely within the next 48 hours, so the war is likely over by the 14th or so.

I think at this point, every Entente Soldier inside the boundaries of Germany(w/Austria) could get whisked away by AWBs and the Germans would *still* be at a military disadvantage. (Bad News, Stalin would be able to conquer all the way to the Rhine. Good News(????), Stalin would become religious.)

 

[naraht]

To be fair I probably did write that in about 2018 or something ridiculous. Note to self, really should write faster.


Fun for the audience, yes. Much harder for the author however!


I believe that's known as "damning with faint praise"!


They aren't going to wait around though. In 24-48 hours the inhabitants of the Reich Chancellery and the Bendlerblock are going to wake up and find British tanks on their lawns.


Yep, Most of the juniors just want to go home and the seniors are practicing their Yodelling skills to pretend that they are just locals.


Not especially - they're still limited by motor fuel above all else, and East Prussia is a hell of a long way from Hamburg through very recently occupied territory.


Nearest source of coal is Upper Silesia. Getting that transported shouldn't be all that hard - the railways still exist and will have been set up to move the coal pre-war since the mines are largely in what was pre-war Polish territory. However, they're massively disorganised by the demands of the German war economy so will take a little while to untangle.
The ZWZ being under the control of the Sikorski government which was until recently in exile isn't going to tolerate private revenge. They now own the judicial system, remember, and the British are more than happy to see Germans guilty of war crimes go through the Polish civil courts. With Stalin being a major preoccupation, they want to portray the image of a robust government as fast and strongly as possible. Additionally, any British troops between them and the RKKA are clearly beneficial to them.


Thanks. I've not gone away. but writing has been very hard.


Ran out of time. The Soviet system isn't terribly flexible, so the Warsaw Uprising and following Entente offensive across Germany caught them by surprise. Note that Stalin is also not a gambler - he's won massively out of WW2 while taking very few risks, and isn't minded to gamble those gains away in exchange for a large number of troublesome Poles.
Note also that Germany has collapsed completely in a couple of weeks - that's only possible because the Entente had massive armies in the field ready to go and Germany was hurt far worse than anybody realised.

Still getting my head around the fact that from the standpoint of Government continuance, the Poles iTTL are in a comparable situation to the Dutch and Belgians iOTL. Elected members of Parliament and Government ministers are able to return to their offices (and Offices) with the support of the conquering power. (But elements of the Republic of China with members of the Parliament representing areas Poland doesn't control anymore. Do they end up doing what the ROC did and continue representation for those areas???)

Unfortunately, this means that the April Constitution from 1935 with a *very* strong president (Mussolini was probably jealous) probably remains.

 

[27zipski]

Sort of makes you wonder what someone would have to do to become Naval Attache to *Bolivia*

Hey! Lake Titicaca is NOT a laughing matter!

 

[pdf27]

12th January 1942

Just before 3am, Hermann Goering is found dead by the Geheime Feldpolizei from an apparent morphine overdose. Shortly afterwards the Berlin garrison contacts I Corps asking for a cease-fire.
The meeting takes place in Alexanderplatz at 7.30am, with the British representative Brigadier Cariappa making it clear that the only form of negotiation he is willing to enter into relates to the details of the surrender of the Berlin garrison. The German delegation leaves, having promised to answer by radio before noon.
At 11.07am a signal is sent by OKW to all German armed forces, ordering them to lay down their arms and surrender to the British or French at the first opportunity. Immediately after, another signal is sent to Wavell from OKW accepting the proposed terms of surrender and informing him that orders to this effect had been sent out to all German armed forces.

In practice, this makes little impact on the behaviour of British and French troops – they are advancing with caution, but resistance is sporadic at worst and gradually dies away over the afternoon as the message starts to filter out. As before the speed of advance is limited by available petrol stocks and the condition of the roads, which means it varies strongly over the length of the front.

In Warsaw, by some miracle the band of the Lancashire Fusiliers have managed to keep their instruments with them on the advance across Germany. As a reward for their enterprise, they get to spend the day marching around Warsaw playing a medley of everything from the Minden March to Dabrowski's Mazurka. The band – unsurprisingly – get gradually more drunk over the course of the day thanks to the Polish hospitality they’re offered. When news of the German surrender comes in late in the afternoon they’re playing “The Emperor of Lancashire” with a great deal more enthusiasm than skill outside a café in Old Town Market Place, at which point any pretence at military discipline is discarded and the whole thing turns into a giant party.

French 4th Army resume their advance, heading south through the foothills of the Alps towards Neunkirchen, Graz and the Italian border.

It is announced that the St Louis Browns will move to Wrigley Field in Los Angeles from the start of the 1942 season. The Angels will move down to San Diego, becoming a farm team for the Browns.
Although the announcement has been widely anticipated for some weeks now, it was delayed by last minute financial negotiations with Sam Breadon and A.P. Gianni.

 

[What if]

Congrats on getting to the End of the War.

A lot of possibilities over what happened to Goering. As while an accidental overdose considering his usage at this point historically and the circumstances of TTL is believable I also think the options of suicide and being murdered are highly likely.

The Lancashire Fusiliers activities do seem like an interesting opportunity for a musical about the war though I'm not sure if there would be the appetite for it.

 

[Xgentis]

I imagine the french newspaper headlines
"La guerre est finie!", "Victoire totale!", "Berlin capitule!", "L'Allemagne est vaincue!", "Nos troupes victorieuse".