A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

[KACKO]

The Slovaks can read the writing on the wall as well as anyone; if the Hungarians are pitching in with the Entente as co-belligerents, what good does it do the Slovaks to get between them and the Germans?

Tell it to gunner of the artillery regiment stationed in Bratislava. He may even have experience from March 1939 misuse of white flags by Hungarians. Why he wouldn't pull that cord if suddenly spotted two obsolete patrol boats are cruising into capital flying "loved" Hungarian flag? Would you as Hungarian commander count with lives of your men and structural integrity of your obsolete ships count on some single gunner seeing writing on the wall, well he still may see writing on the wall. That gunner may even, as majority of Slovak army be not to much pro German, but well Hungarians are coming. Even if something happen. Well, sorry Budapest, you should at least let us know, gunner was just doing his duty.

 

[What if]

25th December 1941

Seems to be a day for the history books.

At dawn, the British and Dutch launch a massed offensive across the north German plain in support of the Poles. The German front line – already shaky – essentially disintegrates into a large number of non-mutually-supporting positions as the Entente forces force their way through them.

Whilst the reader were expecting this, this will be seen as a very good start by Allied command who were unaware of the state of the German army.

The Dutch on the left flank are facing the weakest opposition, but also make the slowest progress due to a lack of bridging units available to cross the Ems. Successful crossings are made by boat at Pewsum (with help from the Korps Mariniers) and Vellage, but the main attack goes over the Düthe and Herbrum locks which had been captured when the Dutch first reached the Ems. The Dutch push a division across each of these during the day, and progress is reasonable – they manage to push some of their reconnaissance units out as far as 15km during the day, but progress is severely hampered by many of the roads turning into a sea of mud which cripples the largely horse-drawn Dutch army's advance. German resistance is patchy – the Vellage landings run into something of a hornet's nest when the Meyer Werft shipyard turns out to contain the destroyer Friedrich Eckoldt and the troops have to be withdrawn under cover of smoke, but otherwise progress is good.

So the best resistance can be found in the German navy, considering how events played out WWI this looks like rather extreme irony.

The worst moment of the day for the Dutch, in fact, comes when they reach the first of the Emsland concentration camps at Esterwegen and find it full of dead or dying Germans locked up behind barbed wire with no sign of their guards.

Hopefully they have enough supplies to treat the survivors.

Further to the south the BEF First and Fourth Armies are the main event of the day. Lavishly supported with artillery and for once with firm orders from Brooke to move fast and take chances, the effects are dramatic. To the right of the advance II Corps take Paderborn after a sharp fight with the German Training and Replacement Tank Battalion 500 which had somehow managed to hoard enough fuel for the action. On the left the KOSBs see their chance and manage to take Minden, 182 years after their previous visit. Critically they are able to seize the crossings over the Weser and the Mittelland canal, which the Germans had not prepared for demolition. While their hold on the town is very tenuous, that is mostly a function of their own weakness rather than anything the enemy are doing: it is clear to everyone that the fight has gone out of the Germans and with three full field armies following on behind them at full speed nobody is particularly concerned by the risk of being surrounded.

Indeed, with petrol and fodder seriously rationed on the German side and virtually no motor vehicles available the British in particular are simply able to advance faster than the Germans can retreat. This means that the majority of 1st and 4th Armies are behind their German counterparts, and moving eastwards faster than the Germans can. The few areas of serious resistance which have been bypassed near the front lines will be left to the follow-on troops from 3rd Army to mop up and deal with.

I wonder how many Germans are taking this opportunity to surrender as the common solider should recognise they're beat at this point.

What is already a bad day for the Germans gets much worse when the Hungarians launch a major attack across the Austrian border, aimed at Vienna and Graz. Led by the Armoured Division, the attack makes rapid progress after brushing aside hastily extemporised German positions along the border, reaching the river Leitha by early evening. At the same time, the Hungarian river troops move upstream aboard the Debrecen and Szeged class monitors, each of which is flying Hungarian, Austrian and Hapsburg (Black-Yellow) flags. Szeged and Kcskemet actually steam up the Donaukanal and in all the excitement make their way out through the Nussdorf lock without anybody shooting at them. The mood in Vienna is clearly anti-German, if not exactly pro-Hungarian, but the fact that the monitors are flying both the Austrian and Hapsburg flags is taken to clearly mean that the Hungarians have a quarrel with the Germans and not with them. This being the case, most Austrians are quite happy to let them get on with it.

Horthy seems to be letting certain ambitions getting the better of him considering how the allies are dead set against Austria-Hungary re-emerging new of them flying the Hapsburg flag will cause a stir to say the least. On top of that considering the original plan was for the French to take Vienna I think the French might feel particularly mad at these developments.

The best time had by the Germans is in Poland, although this is a very relative term. News of the uprising is rapidly spreading around Poland, with sporadic fighting breaking out all over the country. The German response is very mixed – in some places extremely violent with indiscriminate reprisals against the civilian population being the order of the day, in others the German troops are downright meek and only hunker down in their barracks hoping to be left alone. Overall, however, the Poles are holding their own and OB East is desperately messaging Berlin to demand reinforcements.

So the best is not being attacked attacked and being able to kill civilians (burying themselves deeper in the war crime trails hole) So assuming Georing is drugged off, how is the Government in Berlin reacting to this turn of events (trying to scramble or starting to turn on each other?)

Possibly the most influential action of the day – at least for the impact it has on the postwar world – is the liberation of the Bełżec extermination camp by men from the ZWZ led by Col. Kazimierz Bąbiński. Only a handful of Jewish prisoners on the sonderkommando are still alive, but most of the camp staff are captured including the commandant Polizeihauptmann Christian Wirth.

Herr Wirth is done for with a capital f and am looking forward to see that play out. I also take it that Bełżec is TTL's Auschwitz.

 

[avernite]

So the best is not being attacked attacked and being able to kill civilians (burying themselves deeper in the war crime trails hole) So assuming Georing is drugged off, how is the Government in Berlin reacting to this turn of events (trying to scramble or starting to turn on each other?)

I'm imagining at this point they're still scrambling to catch up. They'll know there was an attack along the Ems, but the people who could tell them how big it is are cut off and/or running for their lives, and noone's clear yet that lost communications near the Weser are the same thing - might just be someone misplacing a radio (after all, that someone probably directly reported to an HQ that is still under the category cut off or running, rather than one of those further east).

When they start losing connections east of the Weser, they'll know the game is up and turn on eachother.

 

[pdf27]

Well, that's certainly interesting. Might we see some form of Habsburg restoration?

Various other people might have something to say about it if it covered both countries, what with it being a massive violation of Trianon and Saint-Germain-en-Laye.

Otherwise, at this stage it seems that it's become merely a matter of marching for the Entente forces to reach Berlin. The Wehrmacht will certainly not have the lionised reputation it does in OTL among some circles.

It's pretty much down to how long the petrol holds out now.

Will it be the restoration of the Hapsburgs in Austria or also in Hungary?

While Miklós Horthy is regent, I'm not at all convinced it's a regency he wants to give up - and in OTL he tried to pass it on to his son.

Well here already some cooperation between Budapest and Bratislava should be necessary. Without at least tacit approval from Tiso's regime it wouldn't be very wise to steam Hungarian monitors through Slovak capital. No matter what situation just few years ago, when Hungary's desire for returns of territories should be already satisfied they attacked Slovakia just few days after they recognized independent Slovakia. As in some areas of Eastern Slovakia they did it under flag of truce there could be more then one itchy gunner in Bratislava.

I'm struggling a bit to tell, but it looks to me like the Austrian/Slovakian border ran down the middle of the Danube at the time. If they kept to the Austrian bank - particularly with no flags up - the Slovaks would be very unlikely to open fire IMHO since unless they've got good visibility they risk firing on Germans on German territory.

If Wiki is to be believed, in 1941 Petržalka was under German control post-Munich while Jarovce (literally the next village along) was under Hungarian control. That means the border was right down the middle of the Danube (until 1947 and the Paris Peace Treaty OTL)

Btw. it is Kecskemet. Kecskemet and Szeged were relatively lightly armed - 2x 8cm/D30 artillery and armored - 7.5 mm sides, 10 mm turrets and 5.5 mm deck. A-H Navy had them classed as Patrouillenboot. Their size was some 44 m and 6 m and crew was 44. I guess there wouldn't be much room to transport infantry.
Also Germans still had some of their ships on Danube. For example former Czechoslovak monitor President Masaryk, which renamed as Bechelaren was based in Linz.

Kecskemét/Kcskemet: both spellings are out there on the internet - not being familiar with Hungary I didn't spot the error.
This is more or less the equivalent of a US Army "Thunder Run", with the difference that they aren't shooting at anybody. No infantry, they're purely there to demoralise those defenders still loyal to Germany as much as possible and generally minimise the amount of actual fighting the Hungarians have to do. Of course, postwar this is going to have all sorts of awkward consequences. Real life usually does.

Belzec extermination camp operated OTL from March 1942. Did some changed?

Wannsee Conference was brought forward a year. Lots of theories about the timing of the Holocaust - the one I subscribe to was that the original plan was to murder the Jewish population of Europe as slave labour in the captured Soviet territories over a number of years. Once it became apparent that this wasn't going to happen because the USSR didn't collapse, it switched to extermination. Here, with the British and French still fighting on the continent and the invasion of the Soviet Union put off indefinitely they've decided to start with the mass murder early.
There is also a structural change - the three Operation Reinhardt camps remain, but because the number to be murdered is way down the other camps are only there for forced labour purposes. Auschwitz for instance doesn't have any gas chambers, and is a much smaller camp than OTL.

What is the current state of the Italian military ITTL?

Right now? A kicked-over ant heap would describe it nicely.

I mean, more machine guns as well, but given it was the Beretta M30, they may well have been better off without it.

It's still the best weapon they have.

The Slovaks can read the writing on the wall as well as anyone; if the Hungarians are pitching in with the Entente as co-belligerents, what good does it do the Slovaks to get between them and the Germans?

That too - their best chance of getting that territory back is being on better terms with the Entente than the Hungarians are. Given that they're still sort-of German allies, that's going to be tricky to pull off.

Tell it to gunner of the artillery regiment stationed in Bratislava. He may even have experience from March 1939 misuse of white flags by Hungarians. Why he wouldn't pull that cord if suddenly spotted two obsolete patrol boats are cruising into capital flying "loved" Hungarian flag? Would you as Hungarian commander count with lives of your men and structural integrity of your obsolete ships count on some single gunner seeing writing on the wall, well he still may see writing on the wall. That gunner may even, as majority of Slovak army be not to much pro German, but well Hungarians are coming. Even if something happen. Well, sorry Budapest, you should at least let us know, gunner was just doing his duty.

So the best resistance can be found in the German navy, considering how events played out WWI this looks like rather extreme irony.

More a case of concentrated resistance - you've got a whole ship's crew with some artillery available and in one place, that's more than most defensive positions have.

I wonder how many Germans are taking this opportunity to surrender as the common solider should recognise they're beat at this point.

Lots. German morale is very low, and without the victories and additional years of indoctrination there is less of a die-hard tendency.

Horthy seems to be letting certain ambitions getting the better of him considering how the allies are dead set against Austria-Hungary re-emerging new of them flying the Hapsburg flag will cause a stir to say the least. On top of that considering the original plan was for the French to take Vienna I think the French might feel particularly mad at these developments.

Yeah, this is going to cause a lot of headaches postwar...

So the best is not being attacked attacked and being able to kill civilians (burying themselves deeper in the war crime trails hole)

When rats are caught in a trap, rational thought is a rarity.

So assuming Georing is drugged off, how is the Government in Berlin reacting to this turn of events (trying to scramble or starting to turn on each other?)

So far they don't really understand the enormity of what's happened. In a few days, they'll start to understand just how bad things are.

Herr Wirth is done for with a capital f and am looking forward to see that play out. I also take it that Bełżec is TTL's Auschwitz.

Wirth has got a future very similar to that of Rudolf Höss in OTL.

 

[KACKO]

I'm struggling a bit to tell, but it looks to me like the Austrian/Slovakian border ran down the middle of the Danube at the time. If they kept to the Austrian bank - particularly with no flags up - the Slovaks would be very unlikely to open fire IMHO since unless they've got good visibility they risk firing on Germans on German territory.

If Wiki is to be believed, in 1941 Petržalka was under German control post-Munich while Jarovce (literally the next village along) was under Hungarian control. That means the border was right down the middle of the Danube (until 1947 and the Paris Peace Treaty OTL)

Indeed Petrzalka was after Munich/ Vienna awards in Germany. In one part however shipping lines were in bent towards Slovak side I guess because of water level on southern side. Winter levels of Danube are also lowest. Sneaking by southern bank, well need to be very careful not to get stuck then. Draft if ships was 1 m But well I guess they were lucky they get there. Few more weeks and ships would stay in port. In winter 1941/42 Danube froze over, but I believe it will happen only sometimes in January 1942. Make sure Hungarians will not get icebound.

Kecskemét/Kcskemet: both spellings are out there on the internet - not being familiar with Hungary I didn't spot the error.
This is more or less the equivalent of a US Army "Thunder Run", with the difference that they aren't shooting at anybody. No infantry, they're purely there to demoralise those defenders still loyal to Germany as much as possible and generally minimise the amount of actual fighting the Hungarians have to do. Of course, postwar this is going to have all sorts of awkward consequences. Real life usually does.

Just correction.

Thinking of Hungarian action. If they are pushing towards Vienna it is just right moment for Slovaks to jump in if they want. They can re take Petrzalka as well as Devin area awarded to Germany in 1938. On other side, they can as well sit it over. They will be on victorious side anyway.

 

[Xgentis]

Yeah Paris won't be thrilled seeing their prize gone to an opportunistic power who made an obvious landgrab.

 

[Dageraad]

The winter of 41-42 will be the coldest of the 20th century.
It will hit in a month or so.
Freezing rivers, making transport by barge impossible except for the sea harbors.
Grounding air force
Staying out in the open being no fun at all.
And the Ruhr was the main supplier of coal to get through the winter, so half of Germany will freeze to death.
They did get lots of coal from antoher place: .......Poland.

On the other hand, the Dutch have some knowledge on skate infantry?

 

[Paulo the Limey]

So by the end of the year the Entente will realise just how much of a busted flush the Wehrmacht is, and that their primary opposition is the weather, the logistics, and time. They can’t do much about the first, can trade lives for the last, but what options do they have for the second.

Also, I now have a new sig curtesy of our esteemed author.

 

[Incognitia]

Merry Christmas Hermann Goering, the lads of the BEF are coming for your Tannenbaum.

 

[Xgentis]

Wouldn't be surprised if many cities declare themselve open city offering no resistance, outside some outpost of fanatics. In fact dealing with surrending forces might actually cause a bigger logistic strain then the fight itself.

 

[naraht]

Some thoughts...
1) Some Army is going to have to guard the South Flank of the Thrust, the question is whether that will be British or the Northernmost of the French Armies. The North Flank is sort of guarded by the Dutch, but that will probably have to change when the coast hits the Danish border. (Hopefully the Swedes/Finns will be in by that point. ) With bridges over the Weser, that leaves as the only significant river between the British and Berlin being the Elbe, and once the British get to the Elbe, there really isn't that much Germany left (not sure which is larger Germany East of the Elbe or German controlled Poland)
2) Speaking of the Elbe, it will be interesting to see whose troops reach the Elbe basin first, Dutch, British or Hungarian (note, the Hungarians are actually closest, the Southern edge of the Basin gets pretty close to Austria.)
3) The French being mad at the Hungarians for taking Vienna, I *really* don't think so. The Hungarian Austrian Border is so close to Vienna, the Hungarians would be hamstringing themselves by *avoiding* Vienna.
4) In fact, mixed would describe a lot of French feeling this Christmas. Knowing that the British are the ones getting killed in this thrust toward Germany, knowing it is the right thing to do and yet, feeling somewhat guilty.
5) Between the Dutch and the Poles, they have captured a great deal of information about the industrial killings. Unfortunately while the attack might have started with a willingness to negotiate an end to the war that let Goering live, now...
6) It is unclear to me whether the revolts in Poland include areas on the Soviet side of the line...

 

[Lascaris]

Some thoughts...
1) Some Army is going to have to guard the South Flank of the Thrust, the question is whether that will be British or the Northernmost of the French Armies. The North Flank is sort of guarded by the Dutch, but that will probably have to change when the coast hits the Danish border. (Hopefully the Swedes/Finns will be in by that point. ) With bridges over the Weser, that leaves as the only significant river between the British and Berlin being the Elbe, and once the British get to the Elbe, there really isn't that much Germany left (not sure which is larger Germany East of the Elbe or German controlled Poland)
2) Speaking of the Elbe, it will be interesting to see whose troops reach the Elbe basin first, Dutch, British or Hungarian (note, the Hungarians are actually closest, the Southern edge of the Basin gets pretty close to Austria.)
3) The French being mad at the Hungarians for taking Vienna, I *really* don't think so. The Hungarian Austrian Border is so close to Vienna, the Hungarians would be hamstringing themselves by *avoiding* Vienna.
4) In fact, mixed would describe a lot of French feeling this Christmas. Knowing that the British are the ones getting killed in this thrust toward Germany, knowing it is the right thing to do and yet, feeling somewhat guilty.
5) Between the Dutch and the Poles, they have captured a great deal of information about the industrial killings. Unfortunately while the attack might have started with a willingness to negotiate an end to the war that let Goering live, now...
6) It is unclear to me whether the revolts in Poland include areas on the Soviet side of the line...

Dunno, I expect the Yugoslav army to be charging north at French instigation any day now. I'd add to this a French expeditionary force but I doubt there is time to deploy unless the deployment was already underway for a spring offensive into Austria. Have the French divisions in Syria been shipped to France? (these were supposed to be sent to the hopped for Balkan front OTL)

Or perhaps the French could drop some paratroopers into Vienna to show the flag along with the Hungarians. I doubt we get whole divisions of paras TTL, but a regiment or two for the French and British army should be around.

 

[naraht]

I truly wonder whether the Author took my judgement that the British and French would be able to have a wonderful Christmas as a challenge to destroy....

But I do think that there is a degree of jumping without anywhere close to the planning that the British/French (or for that matter anyone else) wanted to do based on the Polish revolt. Nobody (except the Hungarians) were ready for war, the Hungarians may be at the Swiss Border before the Yugoslavs or Italians actually get their act together to get units mobilized for War.

And while it may mean that the post-war won't go the way that the Entente wants in Central Europe, they aren't stupid enough to tell the Hungarians to stop. They know the Hungarians aren't going to get to Munich and beyond *that*, it can all be worked out when the Shooting stops.

 

[SsgtC]

5) Between the Dutch and the Poles, they have captured a great deal of information about the industrial killings. Unfortunately while the attack might have started with a willingness to negotiate an end to the war that let Goering live, now...

This depends on if Goering can spin it that the death camps were all on Hitler and Himler. If he can claim the killing was being done outside of his knowledge, he might survive with just a prison sentence.

 

[ngf]

Some thoughts...
1) Some Army is going to have to guard the South Flank of the Thrust, the question is whether that will be British or the Northernmost of the French Armies. The North Flank is sort of guarded by the Dutch, but that will probably have to change when the coast hits the Danish border. (Hopefully the Swedes/Finns will be in by that point. ) With bridges over the Weser, that leaves as the only significant river between the British and Berlin being the Elbe, and once the British get to the Elbe, there really isn't that much Germany left (not sure which is larger Germany East of the Elbe or German controlled Poland)

It is likely to be a British Army as none of the French armies have crossed over to the right bank of the Rhine yet. Alexander's 2nd Army currently is perfectly positioned to guard the right flank of the thrush being made by the 1st and 4th Armies, and Richie's 3rd Army isn't even in the line at the moment, being held as the BEF's reserves. Giraud's 7th French Army is closest to the British right flank, but is also the best positioned army to lead the planned French assault along the Cologne – Main – Frankfurt/Stuttgart axis.

 

[Xgentis]

I feel that the french have really took a backseat in the war.

 

[KACKO]

2) Speaking of the Elbe, it will be interesting to see whose troops reach the Elbe basin first, Dutch, British or Hungarian (note, the Hungarians are actually closest, the Southern edge of the Basin gets pretty close to Austria.)
3) The French being mad at the Hungarians for taking Vienna, I *really* don't think so. The Hungarian Austrian Border is so close to Vienna, the Hungarians would be hamstringing themselves by *avoiding* Vienna.

2. Do you mean Elbe in Protectorate Bohmen und Mahren. Hungarians would need not just push into Austria but also cross Dyje river and advance across whole Protectorate north. With their commitment in Poland... They hardly would be able to do so.. especially without coordination with other country in region which has standing army and relatively solid supplies of weapons. Ye I know... Slovakia again.
3. Yep

Nobody (except the Hungarians) were ready for war, the Hungarians may be at the Swiss Border before the Yugoslavs or Italians actually get their act together to get units mobilized for War.

And while it may mean that the post-war won't go the way that the Entente wants in Central Europe, they aren't stupid enough to tell the Hungarians to stop. They know the Hungarians aren't going to get to Munich and beyond *that*, it can all be worked out when the Shooting stops.

Well Hungarians were not ready too. Look how overstretched and underequiped they were in OTL 1941 campaign in USSR. Collection of WWI and basically pre war equipment from various countries. From Czechoslovakia to Germany and Italy. I do not think they go much from Germany in TTL as Germans need/ needed even more what they made then OTL. Not short break between 1940 campaign and Operation Barbarossa.

Honestly Italians and Yugoslavians would be watching each other as well as what is going on in Europe. Yugoslavians may have reason to jump in or may not. Not sure. However they were OTL improving their military by importing equipment from western allies. Including getting some Hurricanes and I believe Blenheim licences. On other side for sure they will not get Bf 109s.

That too - their best chance of getting that territory back is being on better terms with the Entente than the Hungarians are. Given that they're still sort-of German allies, that's going to be tricky to pull off.

Missed this. Well They may be sort of German allies. As Hungary or Poland was sort off in time of Munich.

On other side. Slovaks already got another angle. Founder of Czechoslovak Free government was Slovak - Stefan Osusky, Czechoslovak ambassador to France prior to March 1939. He helped Czechoslovak Free Army to come into life with his dealings with Paris. And funny is... 50% of Czechoslovak Infantry Division in France were... Slovaks. Slovaks are larger men pool Czechoslovak Government in Exile got in France (and Belgium) where ten of thousands of Slovak men were working in mines. OTL French government allowed Czechoslovak Government in Exile to conscript among Czechoslovak citizens in France. Interestingly, OTL after they evacuated to England, many Slovaks decided to stay as they had families in France. Czechoslovak Ground Forces in Exile in West never ever reached divisional level. It is interesting that Czechoslovak Division in Exile is from 50% formed from nationality which had only some 18% share on Czechoslovak population. Even more funny is that Czechs were actually not even 50% as... well many who joined Division were Czechoslovak Jews and even some Germans, some Ruthenians. Just recently I was reading study on national composition of Czechoslovak Infantry Division in France and in some battalions Czechs were just around 30%!

So really Slovak Republic either jump in in order to try preserve itself as completely independent country, and gain good points from western allies as they can add some 120K men on German border with Protectorate (and now when Hungarians are advancing into Austria they got their southern wing covered.). If this will not help them to keep independence it can help to get status of federal republic. But interestingly same thing wanted man who was behind start of Czechoslovak Government in exile Stefan Osusky. So if they do not jump in... Still they are OK. After all they got standing army larger then Benes got and Western allies wouldn't really want some sort of civil war in Czechoslovakia, or fight Slovaks who are perfectly willing to cooperate just for... better political positions in Czechoslovakia, if they can't keep their independence. With Soviets in the East Western allies after fucked up of Munich will want to stabilize Europe as soon as possible.

Interesting thing also is, that if Tiso is not acting, for whatever reasons, Minister of Defense Catlos may. He may already have plans to do something. He did have plans OTL (so called Catlos's memorandum) just well his plans were incorporated into plan of Uprising and Catlos after getting to center of Uprising... ended up arrested and sent to Moscow. And due to week coordination with Soviets but also among insurgents it didn't work in Eastern Slovakia. Interestingly Catlos was I think single Protestant in otherwise Catholic Slovak cabinet and... former Legionary in Russia. As was Augustin Malar, another Slovak General and many others officers.
It doesn't mean they were strictly pro Czechoslovakia or pro independent Slovakia. But many of them were complaining about treatment of Slovak officers by Czechoslovak Ministry of Defense prior to Munich and definitely wanted change. OTL after war this change actual come and Slovaks (even one who served on Eastern front) were kept in the army (if not accused of war crime - few were for war crimes in anti partisan operations and were executed). Interestingly they were kept in the army for a while even after communist take over and were some started to be fired OTL when Stalinist's process with Slovak communist Gustav Husak started. He was accused from... bourgeois nationalism.

 

[Eric S. Raymond]

I feel that the french have really took a backseat in the war.

It's the geography, fundamentally. The reasons the Maginot line was built where it was are also the reasons most of the action was bound to take place in the Low Countries and the North German plain. Closer to the Alps it gets hillier and mobility is reduced.

Also, the BEF can be a mobile attacker because on the Continent it's not tied to anything it needs to defend.

 

[ngf]

It's the geography, fundamentally. The reasons the Maginot line was built where it was are also the reasons most of the action was bound to take place in the Low Countries and the North German plain. Closer to the Alps it gets hillier and mobility is reduced.

Also, the BEF can be a mobile attacker because on the Continent it's not tied to anything it needs to defend.

My guess is that once the French are able to cross the Rhine south of Cologne that they will be able to engage in open field sprinting of their own.

 

[Eric S. Raymond]

My guess is that once the French are able to cross the Rhine south of Cologne that they will be able to engage in open field sprinting of their own.

Maybe? As I look at a topographic map, Cologne is at a latitude well south of the Harz Mountains, which are the northernmost extension of the South German hill country. The French have a few hundred miles of running room on the west bank of the Rhine. but that ends shortly east of Cologne and Dusseldorf; after that, unless they hook north, they're going to run into country where terrain favors the defense more. The contrast with the flatlands north of Hannover, where the BEF is operating, is pretty stark.

They'll hit the hill country west of Leipzig and Erfurt just as their supply lines are starting to get really stretched. I'd expect a slowdown there, if not sooner.