A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

Since the Butt Report isn't specifically mentioned in the TL, I presume it came out in August of 41, just like OTL? Also, is OTL's "Bomber" Harris in his OTL role, and more ominously is Frederick Lindemann? (at least Lindemann is unlikely to make the Bengal famine worse)
Unlikely to be a Bengal famine TTL. Bengal won't be at the front line of a war zone (probably) and rice from Burma, Thailand and Indochina readily accessible and Britain will have more railway, lorry and shipping capacity available. And won't have a war to prosecute and the Imperial Japanese army and navy shooting at them which caused something of a distraction OTL
 
Since the Butt Report isn't specifically mentioned in the TL, I presume it came out in August of 41, just like OTL? Also, is OTL's "Bomber" Harris in his OTL role, and more ominously is Frederick Lindemann? (at least Lindemann is unlikely to make the Bengal famine worse)
15th September 1941 - in this case it’s fronted by Lindemann giving the RAF a kicking (listed as Baron Cherwell in the update) but Butt & co we’re doing the analytical work.
 
The two thirds that don't manage to reach the target are shot down or simply bomb elsewhere (like hitting the Baltic sea)? Also, were any *so* off target that they bombed Danish soil?
Targets of opportunity in “Germany”. The RAF were hardly the only ones to blame here - one of the first Luftwaffe raids of the war hit Germany after all.
 
Targets of opportunity in “Germany”. The RAF were hardly the only ones to blame here - one of the first Luftwaffe raids of the war hit Germany after all.
That’s like one of first air ride in central Europe in March 1939. Ine flight of Hungarian Royal Air Force hit Hungarian town instead of Slovak airport.
 
Targets of opportunity in “Germany”. The RAF were hardly the only ones to blame here - one of the first Luftwaffe raids of the war hit Germany after all.
OTL 1944/45 levels of opportunity (yay!) with OTL 1941 levels of accuracy(yikes)...

Forget Denmark, did they hit Malmo?!?
 
Unlikely to be a Bengal famine TTL. Bengal won't be at the front line of a war zone (probably) and rice from Burma, Thailand and Indochina readily accessible and Britain will have more railway, lorry and shipping capacity available. And won't have a war to prosecute and the Imperial Japanese army and navy shooting at them which caused something of a distraction OTL
Which leads to the question, at this point, how are Thailand's relations with each of the three major powers in the area. If the British can keep the Thai neutral, India will be almost as backwater as Canada...

Also, Subhas Chandra Bose isn't going to be nearly as well known iTTL, right?
 
The U-boats are down on the ground, so its right and proper to carry on giving them a good kicking!
Just because the current U-boat threat isn't huge doesn't mean it isn't there or cannot get greater again.
Not huge by OTL standards - by TTL standards it's probably the scariest threat out there (Obergefreiter Jones with his armoured bread van being the main other one).

Unlikely to be a Bengal famine TTL. Bengal won't be at the front line of a war zone (probably) and rice from Burma, Thailand and Indochina readily accessible and Britain will have more railway, lorry and shipping capacity available. And won't have a war to prosecute and the Imperial Japanese army and navy shooting at them which caused something of a distraction OTL
Likely to be some hunger - the harvest will still fail as OTL, and the British are unlikely to do much to help matters - but the shipping is available so enough food will come in to avoid mass starvation.

That’s like one of first air ride in central Europe in March 1939. Ine flight of Hungarian Royal Air Force hit Hungarian town instead of Slovak airport.
It's not unusual. Air navigation is hard, particularly in bad weather at night with people shooting at you.

OTL 1944/45 levels of opportunity (yay!) with OTL 1941 levels of accuracy(yikes)...

Forget Denmark, did they hit Malmo?!?
Probably not. Back when I was doing a lot of flying I remember the briefing given to someone on their first long-distance cross country flight from Cambridge to Norwich: "if you get to a large area of grey crinkly stuff, turn back because that's the North Sea". He ended up near the beach at Lowestoft. The same thing applies here - unless they somehow miss the entire Jutland peninsula, they aren't going to end up bombing Sweden. Water features - particularly the sea - are relatively easy to see from the air.

Which leads to the question, at this point, how are Thailand's relations with each of the three major powers in the area. If the British can keep the Thai neutral, India will be almost as backwater as Canada...

Also, Subhas Chandra Bose isn't going to be nearly as well known iTTL, right?
By three major powers you mean Britain, France and China, right? Not great, but that's down to history and didn't cause a war beforehand.
As for Bose, in OTL April 1941 he was in Moscow - so far I don't really see any reason for changes. Whether he moves on to Germany after that I'm really not so sure - I would suspect not. Either way he's unlikely to be much more than a footnote in history.
 
The U-boats are down on the ground, so its right and proper to carry on giving them a good kicking!
Just because the current U-boat threat isn't huge doesn't mean it isn't there or cannot get greater again.

Currently the allies hold parts of German soil, Germany is divided between Goering and Himmler and currently is experiencing shortages of nearly everything. And with the next offensive being in the Spring (meaning at most the war is over late-summer/early autumn) I don't see enough time for a recovery.
 
Currently the allies hold parts of German soil, Germany is divided between Goering and Himmler and currently is experiencing shortages of nearly everything. And with the next offensive being in the Spring (meaning at most the war is over late-summer/early autumn) I don't see enough time for a recovery.

Yes, and who wants to be on the hook for standing down U-Boat weeding if they got it wrong?
 
So with the war basically over in Europe bar the cleanup, and over at far lesser cost in blood and treasure and credibility than in OTL, what's the Indian independence movement going to do? I don't recall if the roundup of Congress leaders that happened OTL happened here, but the original grievances are still there, and securing the Raj and the sea-lanes to and from it is still a massive strain on Britain's military. And while Britain hasn't suffered the catastrophic loss of apparent invincibility that Singapore and Hong Kong represented, they might simply run out of money, especially once wartime expedients in that regard run out.

So the question may be whether the British see the end coming and try for a soft landing that keeps India strategically tied to Britain or do they refuse to countenance the possibility of losing the jewel in the crown and double down on retaining India.
 
The broad direction is already decided - Congress are in government (albeit in a limited fashion), the UK has committed to Indian independence n an undefined manner after the war, and nothing has happened to stop Atlee becoming PM.

What is left is all the shouting (an awful lot of it) to decide how and when India will become independent. Chances are nobody will get what they want, but hopefully they can live with what they do get.
 
Probably not. Back when I was doing a lot of flying I remember the briefing given to someone on their first long-distance cross country flight from Cambridge to Norwich: "if you get to a large area of grey crinkly stuff, turn back because that's the North Sea". He ended up near the beach at Lowestoft. The same thing applies here - unless they somehow miss the entire Jutland peninsula, they aren't going to end up bombing Sweden. Water features - particularly the sea - are relatively easy to see from the air.


By three major powers you mean Britain, France and China, right? Not great, but that's down to history and didn't cause a war beforehand.
As for Bose, in OTL April 1941 he was in Moscow - so far I don't really see any reason for changes. Whether he moves on to Germany after that I'm really not so sure - I would suspect not. Either way he's unlikely to be much more than a footnote in history.
Not that far off then, though everyones definition of cross country is different. I guess equivalent here would be Dallas to Atlanta and ending up in Savannah.

Britain, France and Japan. Having Thailand on the Japanese side gave a great deal to the Japanese...
 
Are these bombing runs from British airfields or Dutch?
Not that far off then, though everyones definition of cross country is different. I guess equivalent here would be Dallas to Atlanta and ending up in Savannah.

Britain, France and Japan. Having Thailand on the Japanese side gave a great deal of options to the Japanese...
 
Not that far off then, though everyones definition of cross country is different. I guess equivalent here would be Dallas to Atlanta and ending up in Savannah.
Distances flown and accuracy of arrival become a bit different when you don't have an engine...

Britain, France and Japan. Having Thailand on the Japanese side gave a great deal to the Japanese...
The Japanese don't count as one of the major local powers - their nearest forces are probably in Hainan which is two countries and a sea voyage away.
 
So I got a long way behind on this - I haven't commented in around three years:frown:. I've been reading it through since the Christmas holidays.

4th December 1941
The Avro Manchester heavy bomber enters service as part of a raid on Kiel. Thanks to the clear night, full moon and poorly organised German defences a full third of the bombers manage to reach the target causing over 250 deaths on the ground.
Ouch. What actually constitutes the target? The dockyards, the canal, the buildings? Or the city in general?

Regards

R

P.S. It's a shame when I read the early replies how so many familiar names have fallen by the wayside - either banned or not posting any more.
 
So I got a long way behind on this - I haven't commented in around three years:frown:. I've been reading it through since the Christmas holidays.
Good to have you back.

Ouch. What actually constitutes the target? The dockyards, the canal, the buildings? Or the city in general?
Officially it's the shipyard. Since it's literally just across the river from the Altstadt, as soon as the first bomber misses and hits that instead follow-on attacks will often bomb on the smoke and flames. This was a risk even on "precision" raids where far more effort was taken to identify targets accurately. Here they know it's in Germany, and given the Luftwaffe raids on London and especially Paris aren't too bothered about hitting civilians by accident.

Bombing of the Shellhus said:
When the first wave passed the goods yard one of the Mosquitos hit a 30 metre lamp post and crashed near the French school (see the map). The rest of the wave found and bombed the target. The second wave got confused by the smoke and flames from the crashed Mosquito. Some realized the mistake before they bombed and turned toward the Shellhus, but only one of the planes were able to bomb the target.

One or two of the planes in the 2nd wave dropped their bombs on the French school. The third wave approached Copenhagen from the west, passing the ZOO on their way in. All but one of the planes in the third wave dropped their bombs on the French school killing 123 civilians of whom 87 were children.
mindes_shellhuset.jpg

https://milhist.dk/the-bombing-of-the-shellhus/
 
Distances flown and accuracy of arrival become a bit different when you don't have an engine...


The Japanese don't count as one of the major local powers - their nearest forces are probably in Hainan which is two countries and a sea voyage away.
So flying a hang glider?

The Chinese are a trip though mountainous northern Laos or northern Burma, at minimum. So the Thai are reading that the British and French aren't really that much weaker than they've been for most of the 20th century...
 
So flying a hang glider?
One of these from memory
50feb94463663szd-51-1-junior-6.jpg


The Chinese are a trip though mountainous northern Laos or northern Burma, at minimum. So the Thai are reading that the British and French aren't really that much weaker than they've been for most of the 20th century...
Stronger, probably - they're fully mobilized for war and likely to take a very dim view of anybody trying to start another one.
 
One of these from memory


Stronger, probably - they're fully mobilized for war and likely to take a very dim view of anybody trying to start another one.

I left my engine in my other pants...

Which reminds me, is the French Navy in Hai Phong, between the Japanese in Hainan and FIC, farther south in FIC, or all the way down in Singapore?

Bangkok is pretty vulnerable as long as the Entente Navies are able to project north from Singapore...
 
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